GA-6 Special election discussion thread
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Author Topic: GA-6 Special election discussion thread  (Read 249017 times)
Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2750 on: June 17, 2017, 04:28:49 PM »

I’ve been playing with the early vote data between the first round and the runoff.  Obviously, early voting is way up in the runoff: a 148% increase from the first round!  But this increase isn’t uniform across the district.  I’ve attempted to relate the amount of increase to the party breakdown in round 1 votes.

The charts below show one bubble for each precinct.  The size of the bubble represents the total D+R vote in round 1.  The horizontal axis is the D percentage of the D+R vote in round 1. The vertical axis is the percentage increase of early votes from round 1 to the runoff.  Bubbles in the upper right and lower left quadrants should be good news for Ossoff: upper right is a higher increase in EV for D-leaning precincts, while lower left is a lower increase for R-leaning precincts.  Similarly, the upper left and lower right quadrants should be good for Handel.

Here’s the district-wide plot:



This seems good for Ossoff.  But since DeKalb had more EV locations in the runoff than in the first round, while Cobb had fewer locations, this may not be a fair comparison.  So I looked at each county individually.  Here’s Fulton County:



IMO Fulton looks slightly favorable to Handel. 

DeKalb:



DeKalb, not surprisingly, looks quite good for Ossoff, although since it has mostly D-leaning precincts it's hard to be sure.

Cobb:



Since Cobb has mostly R-leaning precincts, it’s difficult to compare D vs R here.  But the increases here are certainly less than in the other two counties.  However, a lot of this is probably due to the fewer EV locations.

Thoughts?


Looks good for Ossoff
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2751 on: June 17, 2017, 04:32:49 PM »

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI
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Skunk
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« Reply #2752 on: June 17, 2017, 04:47:22 PM »

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

Ahahahaha did Krazen make this?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2753 on: June 17, 2017, 04:58:57 PM »

Nate Silver's analysis to suit every mood:


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/876144440196431877

In a later tweet, he says that he likes number 3, 10, 13, and 14 the best.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #2754 on: June 17, 2017, 05:02:34 PM »

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

If anyone is cheering the shooting, it's Republicans who want to use it to their advantage politically.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2755 on: June 17, 2017, 05:09:06 PM »

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

Republicans know what they're doing.  They know how to win.  When will Democrats start being as mean and ruthless as they are?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2756 on: June 17, 2017, 06:14:46 PM »

I know, the GOP shocked Dems in WI of all places last year.  This victory must be earned.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2757 on: June 17, 2017, 10:50:25 PM »

The Atlanta poll has been updated to Ossoff 49.7 to Handel's 48 http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/6th-district-poll-fewer-voters-undecided/534524963
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2758 on: June 18, 2017, 12:04:41 AM »

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

Republicans know what they're doing.  They know how to win.  When will Democrats start being as mean and ruthless as they are?

It's better to lose ethically than to win unethically.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2759 on: June 18, 2017, 12:23:43 AM »

For anyone from GA-06 or near by what's the story on Fulton? It seems to be the purple district with the most % so what is the word on the street of how this is looking compared to April
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2760 on: June 18, 2017, 03:00:01 AM »

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

Republicans know what they're doing.  They know how to win.  When will Democrats start being as mean and ruthless as they are?

It's better to lose ethically than to win unethically.

No. Only winners get to shape the future of the country, and therefore only the winners' morals matter.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2761 on: June 18, 2017, 06:58:22 AM »

IF its right, he just needs 15% of undecideds.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #2762 on: June 18, 2017, 08:24:38 AM »

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

This will backfire.  Holy sht.

Also, let's stop trusting decimals in polls.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2763 on: June 18, 2017, 09:30:23 AM »

For anyone from GA-06 or near by what's the story on Fulton? It seems to be the purple district with the most % so what is the word on the street of how this is looking compared to April

Nate Cohn suggested that, based on the early vote in Fulton, Ossoff would have a tiny edge if the turnout patterns were similar elsewhere and voters broke the same way as in round 1.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2764 on: June 18, 2017, 09:48:51 AM »

Good article on the fallout of this race having on 2018 https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/18/us/politics/high-stakes-referendum-on-trump-takes-shape-in-a-georgia-special-election.html?_r=0&referer=https://t.co/odVgVfdR5M?amp=1
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Webnicz
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« Reply #2765 on: June 18, 2017, 10:05:49 AM »

I actually had a dream last night that Handel won by 10 points, I was so upset.
This is why its bad for the dems to put all our apples into this race, this is really all we got and if we loose it will be devastating, and would likely send a message to party leadership that the message needs changing(which should have already been done)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2766 on: June 18, 2017, 10:35:42 AM »

Not really, 2020 is the Democrats year, but 2018 would be a momumentus upset if we knock off Speaker Ryan.  Dems should cherish the moment they have now, and not get too up or down.
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Smash255
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« Reply #2767 on: June 18, 2017, 11:30:44 AM »


It would be genius if that exit led to a polling site lol


This sign is nowhere near the district.  On the Sagtikos Parkway in Suffolk County right around the L.I.E
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2768 on: June 18, 2017, 11:41:03 AM »

Summary of polls from last week (using most recent poll from each pollster):

6/15: Landmark: Ossoff +2 (50-48), Early Vote: Ossoff +8 (54-46)
6/14-6/15: Opinion Savvy: Ossoff +1 (50-49), Early Vote: Ossoff +16 (58-42)
6/10-6/13: Trafalgar Group: Ossoff +3 (50-47), Early Vote: Ossoff +12 (56-44)
6/7-6/11: SurveyUSA: Tie (47-47), Early Vote: Ossoff +19 (57-38)

Average Lead: Ossoff +1.5 (49.25-47.75)
Average Early Vote Lead: Ossoff +13.75 (56.25-42.5)
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hueylong
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« Reply #2769 on: June 18, 2017, 12:28:55 PM »

Outcome will largely be dependent on black turnout.
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Beet
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« Reply #2770 on: June 18, 2017, 12:52:23 PM »

Dumb question, but are they using paper ballots, or software? Is there any chance it could actually be hacked?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2771 on: June 18, 2017, 01:03:51 PM »

Dumb question, but are they using paper ballots, or software? Is there any chance it could actually be hacked?

We use electronic voting machines.  There is no receipt or paper trail.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2772 on: June 18, 2017, 01:06:47 PM »

Dumb question, but are they using paper ballots, or software? Is there any chance it could actually be hacked?

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/14/will-the-georgia-special-election-get-hacked-215255

(ignore the fearmongering title)
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Barnes
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« Reply #2773 on: June 18, 2017, 01:08:43 PM »

Dumb question, but are they using paper ballots, or software? Is there any chance it could actually be hacked?

We use electronic voting machines.  There is no receipt or paper trail.

The only exception being voters who cast mail-in absentee ballots or a provisional/challenged ballot. I usually vote by mail simply because I enjoy having a physical ballot to hold.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2774 on: June 18, 2017, 01:09:42 PM »

Another thing about the Georgia voting machines: they use touch screens.  In every election, there are a few reports of machines casting ballots for the wrong candidate.  This invariably turns out to be a calibration problem with the touch screen.  If you see similar reports on Tuesday, don't assume it's a conspiracy to alter the result.
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