Andrew Cuomo's path to the presidency in 2020

[Suburbia]

Face it--whether you like the New York governor or not, Andrew Cuomo has presidential aspirations. If elected, he would be the first Italian-American president. He is a liberal, a Northeastern liberal. He has centrist views, whether the Sanders wing likes it or not. He comes from a large state. What is Cuomo's path to the presidency in 2020?

[The_Doctor]

None. He's a corporatist Democrat in an age where the populist base hates that like kryptonite.

[Hindsight was 2020]

His path runs through free education and healthcare. As a NYer I like him but he isn't an "outstanding" governor and like TD said the base will eat him alive on his centrist views

[TJ in Oregon]

If he manages to somehow survive the primary, he'd stand a pretty good chance of defeating Trump, as he is fairly opposite. As much as it pains me to say, Cuomoism in America has not yet been vanquished.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He doesn't have one. He's a lousy uninteresting and charismatic candidate with serious baggage (not just his right wing stuff, most of his key political allies are headed to federal prison) and any attempt by big moneyed donors to buy him the nomination will be as successful as the attempt by big moneyed donors to buy Jeb Bush the nomination.

[Tekken_Guy]

No way. The Bernie lovers aren't going to like him and honestly he screams corruption.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Have no one remotely progressive run and then run to the left of the other candidates.

[Vosem]

In spite of his deplorable views on gun rights, I'd definitely be down to support him in a Democratic primary, and against Trump in a general election.

[LLR]

Step 1: Get all the money
Step 2: Get all the advertisements
Step 3: Win New Hampshire
Step 4: Win the Democratic Party
Step 5: Win the GE with even more money

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Step 1: Get all the money
Step 2: Get all the advertisements
Step 3: Win New Hampshire
Step 4: Win the Democratic Party
Step 5: Win the GE with even more money

That worked out so well for Jeb!

[Hoosier_Nick]

While I presume it's plausible, as everyone else said the party will be looking for someone more progressive. Cuomo doesn't really fit the bill.

[Rjjr77]

Face it--whether you like the New York governor or not, Andrew Cuomo has presidential aspirations. If elected, he would be the first Italian-American president. He is a liberal, a Northeastern liberal. He has centrist views, whether the Sanders wing likes it or not. He comes from a large state. What is Cuomo's path to the presidency in 2020?

Lock up super delegates early, work southern blacks hard, raise the most money.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Rise above the immature scrum of inexperienced leftists and come off as the only sane man in the room, a la John Kerry in 2004.

It's a tough needle to thread, but he can do it if things break right. His biggest handicap is Booker, who has a lot of the same appeal with more progressive bona fides.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

What would Cuomo's supporter base look like, anyway?  I can't see him doing spectacularly well with young people, olds, minorities, the working poor, or especially union members.  There's nothing special about supporting LGBT rights as a Democrat anymore.  He talks a good game on abortion, but that's not enough to win him the nomination.  I can't see anyone polling strongly for him except rich centrist Bloomberg types, honestly.  He would have many of the same problems Clinton did against Trump.

[Vosem]

Step 1: Get all the money
Step 2: Get all the advertisements
Step 3: Win New Hampshire
Step 4: Win the Democratic Party
Step 5: Win the GE with even more money

That worked out so well for Jeb!

It worked out well for Clinton '16 and Romney '12. It's a decent, though not certain, strategy; it's very good for establishing yourself as the early frontrunner (even Jeb! managed that) but then you still have to hold on to that position, and the ability to do that will depend on the quality of your message and on the quality of your opposition. Jeb! failed at this unusually massively, since his message was incoherent and the quality of his opposition was unusually high, so that he managed to fall to fifth place in polling while still being an order of magnitude ahead of everyone else in money terms.

[Kingpoleon]

Get strong finishes in Iowa and win NH. From there, his path is pretty simple.

[Mr. Morden]

Step 1: Get all the money
Step 2: Get all the advertisements
Step 3: Win New Hampshire
Step 4: Win the Democratic Party
Step 5: Win the GE with even more money

That worked out so well for Jeb!

It worked out well for Clinton '16 and Romney '12. It's a decent, though not certain, strategy; it's very good for establishing yourself as the early frontrunner (even Jeb! managed that) but then you still have to hold on to that position, and the ability to do that will depend on the quality of your message and on the quality of your opposition. Jeb! failed at this unusually massively, since his message was incoherent and the quality of his opposition was unusually high, so that he managed to fall to fifth place in polling while still being an order of magnitude ahead of everyone else in money terms.

But there is a circular aspect to this.  Early frontrunners like Clinton and Romney got lots of elite support and money and were able to hire A-list talent for their campaigns because the party elites thought they were going to win anyway.  If you're viewed as the frontrunner, then elites want to join you so they can suck up to you and be on the winning team.  But Cuomo is not viewed as the 2020 Dem. frontrunner, and it's not clear to me how he's going to convince people that he is the frontrunner.

Now, he does have one thing going for him, which is that he's the sitting governor of New York.  And so he'll manage to get decent fundraising #s even if he's at 1% in the polls, simply because so many rich people have business interests in New York, and will want to gain favor with Cuomo even if they don't think he'll ever be president.

So, OK, his campaign isn't going to be as poor as that of Chafee or Gilmore.  But I doubt it'll actually be enough to give him the largest fundraising haul in the field, nor enough to make him a strong contender.

[Hoosier_Nick]

What would Cuomo's supporter base look like, anyway?  I can't see him doing spectacularly well with young people, olds, minorities, the working poor, or especially union members.  There's nothing special about supporting LGBT rights as a Democrat anymore.  He talks a good game on abortion, but that's not enough to win him the nomination.  I can't see anyone polling strongly for him except rich centrist Bloomberg types, honestly.  He would have many of the same problems Clinton did against Trump.

I would anticipate suburban, wealthy, liberal, country club Democrats. Probably mostly middle-age, could get some older support too if the alternate is a Bernie type.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Cuomo's path to national power involves a trail of bodies like we haven't seen since the Kennedys.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Step 1: Get all the money
Step 2: Get all the advertisements
Step 3: Win New Hampshire
Step 4: Win the Democratic Party
Step 5: Win the GE with even more money

That worked out so well for Jeb!

It worked out well for Clinton '16 and Romney '12. It's a decent, though not certain, strategy; it's very good for establishing yourself as the early frontrunner (even Jeb! managed that) but then you still have to hold on to that position, and the ability to do that will depend on the quality of your message and on the quality of your opposition. Jeb! failed at this unusually massively, since his message was incoherent and the quality of his opposition was unusually high, so that he managed to fall to fifth place in polling while still being an order of magnitude ahead of everyone else in money terms.

But there is a circular aspect to this.  Early frontrunners like Clinton and Romney got lots of elite support and money and were able to hire A-list talent for their campaigns because the party elites thought they were going to win anyway.  If you're viewed as the frontrunner, then elites want to join you so they can suck up to you and be on the winning team.  But Cuomo is not viewed as the 2020 Dem. frontrunner, and it's not clear to me how he's going to convince people that he is the frontrunner.

Now, he does have one thing going for him, which is that he's the sitting governor of New York.  And so he'll manage to get decent fundraising #s even if he's at 1% in the polls, simply because so many rich people have business interests in New York, and will want to gain favor with Cuomo even if they don't think he'll ever be president.

So, OK, his campaign isn't going to be as poor as that of Chafee or Gilmore.  But I doubt it'll actually be enough to give him the largest fundraising haul in the field, nor enough to make him a strong contender.

I don't like the guy, but he's got a real shot.  He's tried and true, he's got accomplishments (of questionable value, I grant you), and he's not up for re-election.  He can run as an incumbent. 

He's Italian; that'll make him a "first".

He's Catholic; that'll make him a "second" and the "first since JFK".  Think about it; the only other Catholic to be a Presidential nominee besides JFK is the other JFK (John Forbes Kerry).  He'll generate just about the same amount of enthusiasm Kerry generated, but that could be enough if Trump is sinking.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The thing is Cuomo is a loud mouth in your face NYer which we already have. If people are sick of Trump they will want a contrast from Trump like Bullock, Cooper, Castro, Brown, Hick, etc

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Step 1: Get all the money
Step 2: Get all the advertisements
Step 3: Win New Hampshire
Step 4: Win the Democratic Party
Step 5: Win the GE with even more money

That worked out so well for Jeb!

It worked out well for Clinton '16 and Romney '12. It's a decent, though not certain, strategy; it's very good for establishing yourself as the early frontrunner (even Jeb! managed that) but then you still have to hold on to that position, and the ability to do that will depend on the quality of your message and on the quality of your opposition. Jeb! failed at this unusually massively, since his message was incoherent and the quality of his opposition was unusually high, so that he managed to fall to fifth place in polling while still being an order of magnitude ahead of everyone else in money terms.

But there is a circular aspect to this.  Early frontrunners like Clinton and Romney got lots of elite support and money and were able to hire A-list talent for their campaigns because the party elites thought they were going to win anyway.  If you're viewed as the frontrunner, then elites want to join you so they can suck up to you and be on the winning team.  But Cuomo is not viewed as the 2020 Dem. frontrunner, and it's not clear to me how he's going to convince people that he is the frontrunner.

Now, he does have one thing going for him, which is that he's the sitting governor of New York.  And so he'll manage to get decent fundraising #s even if he's at 1% in the polls, simply because so many rich people have business interests in New York, and will want to gain favor with Cuomo even if they don't think he'll ever be president.

So, OK, his campaign isn't going to be as poor as that of Chafee or Gilmore.  But I doubt it'll actually be enough to give him the largest fundraising haul in the field, nor enough to make him a strong contender.

I don't like the guy, but he's got a real shot.  He's tried and true, he's got accomplishments (of questionable value, I grant you), and he's not up for re-election.  He can run as an incumbent.  

He's Italian; that'll make him a "first".

He's Catholic; that'll make him a "second" and the "first since JFK".  Think about it; the only other Catholic to be a Presidential nominee besides JFK is the other JFK (John Forbes Kerry).  He'll generate just about the same amount of enthusiasm Kerry generated, but that could be enough if Trump is sinking.

No one cares about that type of identity politics in 2017 and won't in 2020 either. They also didn't even in 2012, I don't remember ever hearing about Rick Santorum being Italian being brought up and being Catholic was only mentioned as a side note into talking about how he was winning evangelicals so strongly. Also the only time Catholicism was brought up in regards to John Kerry was when right wing Catholics bashed him over abortion.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Step 1: Get all the money
Step 2: Get all the advertisements
Step 3: Win New Hampshire
Step 4: Win the Democratic Party
Step 5: Win the GE with even more money

That worked out so well for Jeb!

It worked out well for Clinton '16 and Romney '12. It's a decent, though not certain, strategy; it's very good for establishing yourself as the early frontrunner (even Jeb! managed that) but then you still have to hold on to that position, and the ability to do that will depend on the quality of your message and on the quality of your opposition. Jeb! failed at this unusually massively, since his message was incoherent and the quality of his opposition was unusually high, so that he managed to fall to fifth place in polling while still being an order of magnitude ahead of everyone else in money terms.

But there is a circular aspect to this.  Early frontrunners like Clinton and Romney got lots of elite support and money and were able to hire A-list talent for their campaigns because the party elites thought they were going to win anyway.  If you're viewed as the frontrunner, then elites want to join you so they can suck up to you and be on the winning team.  But Cuomo is not viewed as the 2020 Dem. frontrunner, and it's not clear to me how he's going to convince people that he is the frontrunner.

Now, he does have one thing going for him, which is that he's the sitting governor of New York.  And so he'll manage to get decent fundraising #s even if he's at 1% in the polls, simply because so many rich people have business interests in New York, and will want to gain favor with Cuomo even if they don't think he'll ever be president.

So, OK, his campaign isn't going to be as poor as that of Chafee or Gilmore.  But I doubt it'll actually be enough to give him the largest fundraising haul in the field, nor enough to make him a strong contender.

I don't like the guy, but he's got a real shot.  He's tried and true, he's got accomplishments (of questionable value, I grant you), and he's not up for re-election.  He can run as an incumbent.  

He's Italian; that'll make him a "first".

He's Catholic; that'll make him a "second" and the "first since JFK".  Think about it; the only other Catholic to be a Presidential nominee besides JFK is the other JFK (John Forbes Kerry).  He'll generate just about the same amount of enthusiasm Kerry generated, but that could be enough if Trump is sinking.

No one cares about that type of identity politics in 2017 and won't in 2020 either. They also didn't even in 2012, I don't remember ever hearing about Rick Santorum being Italian being brought up and being Catholic was only mentioned as a side note into talking about how he was winning evangelicals so strongly. Also the only time Catholicism was brought up in regards to John Kerry was when right wing Catholics bashed him over abortion.

The Catholic thing isn't that much of a big deal as it was in 1960.  The type of preachers who warned us about "Rome" and "the Pope" are now folks who have found common cause on social issues with at least the conservative Catholics in America.

The Italian thing, that's something else.  Italians are socially conservative, and intensely patriotic, but they are also very proud of being Italian.  Perhaps because of the unfairly negative light in which many Italians view themselves as having been seen by others in media, an Italian as President is a big deal to many Italian-Americans. 

[AGA]

While I like him a lot better than other people on Atlas do, he has too many problems with progressives. They see through his attempts to be progressive. The potential corruption is a problem too. I wouldn't mind him as president, but we have better options for nominees.

Now, if he does run (it looks like he will), I could see him doing well with a lot of Clinton '16 primary voters (African-Americans, wealthy Democrats). Also, maybe his attempts to revitalize western New York could play well in the rust belt.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Step 1: Get all the money
Step 2: Get all the advertisements
Step 3: Win New Hampshire
Step 4: Win the Democratic Party
Step 5: Win the GE with even more money

That worked out so well for Jeb!

It worked out well for Clinton '16 and Romney '12. It's a decent, though not certain, strategy; it's very good for establishing yourself as the early frontrunner (even Jeb! managed that) but then you still have to hold on to that position, and the ability to do that will depend on the quality of your message and on the quality of your opposition. Jeb! failed at this unusually massively, since his message was incoherent and the quality of his opposition was unusually high, so that he managed to fall to fifth place in polling while still being an order of magnitude ahead of everyone else in money terms.

But there is a circular aspect to this.  Early frontrunners like Clinton and Romney got lots of elite support and money and were able to hire A-list talent for their campaigns because the party elites thought they were going to win anyway.  If you're viewed as the frontrunner, then elites want to join you so they can suck up to you and be on the winning team.  But Cuomo is not viewed as the 2020 Dem. frontrunner, and it's not clear to me how he's going to convince people that he is the frontrunner.

Now, he does have one thing going for him, which is that he's the sitting governor of New York.  And so he'll manage to get decent fundraising #s even if he's at 1% in the polls, simply because so many rich people have business interests in New York, and will want to gain favor with Cuomo even if they don't think he'll ever be president.

So, OK, his campaign isn't going to be as poor as that of Chafee or Gilmore.  But I doubt it'll actually be enough to give him the largest fundraising haul in the field, nor enough to make him a strong contender.

I don't like the guy, but he's got a real shot.  He's tried and true, he's got accomplishments (of questionable value, I grant you), and he's not up for re-election.  He can run as an incumbent.  

He's Italian; that'll make him a "first".

He's Catholic; that'll make him a "second" and the "first since JFK".  Think about it; the only other Catholic to be a Presidential nominee besides JFK is the other JFK (John Forbes Kerry).  He'll generate just about the same amount of enthusiasm Kerry generated, but that could be enough if Trump is sinking.

No one cares about that type of identity politics in 2017 and won't in 2020 either. They also didn't even in 2012, I don't remember ever hearing about Rick Santorum being Italian being brought up and being Catholic was only mentioned as a side note into talking about how he was winning evangelicals so strongly. Also the only time Catholicism was brought up in regards to John Kerry was when right wing Catholics bashed him over abortion.

The Catholic thing isn't that much of a big deal as it was in 1960.  The type of preachers who warned us about "Rome" and "the Pope" are now folks who have found common cause on social issues with at least the conservative Catholics in America.

The Italian thing, that's something else.  Italians are socially conservative, and intensely patriotic, but they are also very proud of being Italian.  Perhaps because of the unfairly negative light in which many Italians view themselves as having been seen by others in media, an Italian as President is a big deal to many Italian-Americans. 

In 2008 there was Rudy Giuliani's campaign: epic fail
In 2012 there was Rick Santorum, and no one cared about him being Italian, plus he lost the most heavily Italian parts of the country to Romney.
In 2016 there was Chris Christie, and his campaign went nowhere.

Italian identity politics don't seem to be a thing.