What would happen if North Korea actually launched the nuke?

[Senator-elect Spark]

[Crumpets]

If they were to do it right now, they'd basically be signing their death warrant. They don't have good enough technology to defer the US and Japan from massive retaliation and I doubt China or Russia would come to their defense. The more interesting question becomes what would happen if they're allowed to further develop missile technologies and can launch sudden attacks at any point on earth instead of a radius of a few hundred kilometers.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

They're a two-bomb country at most. No matter what they launch and where, they would be obliterated in the retaliation within hours.

This is why the eventual most likely outcome in NK is a military or Chinese coup when the clock gets too close to midnight.

[GoTfan]

Not happening.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not happening.

It could happen, but only if Kin Jung Un decides to pull a Samson in the Temple of Dagon as his regime collapses.

[dead0man]

80-85% chance it would get shot down, every bit of Norks military gear would be destroyed over the next several weeks.  Sadly, a lot of S,Koreans in Seoul would die.  There is a greater than zero chance that the PRC inserts itself on one side or the other.

But they ain't launching sh**t in anger at anybody.  A coup by the military or the PRC as suggested by Ray G is much more likely.

[Zioneer]

Then there would be no more North Korea. Simple as that.

[Meclazine for Israel]

80-85% chance it would get shot down, every bit of Norks military gear would be destroyed over the next several weeks.  Sadly, a lot of S,Koreans in Seoul would die.  There is a greater than zero chance that the PRC inserts itself on one side or the other.

But they ain't launching sh**t in anger at anybody.  A coup by the military or the PRC as suggested by Ray G is much more likely.

It would be shot mid air.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_national_missile_defense

The USA would have helped South Korea build a defensive wall of missiles designed to intercept such an attack.

Trump has asked South Korea to pay for this wall.

[Torie]

How good are the US's anti missile missiles?

[dead0man]

How good are the US's anti missile missiles?

it's a secret

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If any country gets nuked by anyone, that's the end for mankind.  I pity the remaining souls who suffer during the aftermath.

[dead0man]

If any country gets nuked by anyone, that's the end for mankind.

that's very much not true

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If any country gets nuked by anyone, that's the end for mankind.

that's very much not true

This wouldn't unleash an unstoppable domino effect?

[dead0man]

nah, perhaps in the 60s-80s, but certainly not today.  If India and Pakistan went stupid, it's not going to drag the west, the Russians and the PRC in.  If Israel and Iran went stupid, same thing.  If the Norks somehow manage to pull it off, same thing.  There would be no reason for the escalation to happen. 

(and even if it all went tits up, the southern hemisphere wouldn't be uninhabitable)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There would be no reason to. If DPRK fired a nuclear missile at DPRK unilaterally it would immediately be thrown under a bridge by China because it would be impossible for the Chinese regime to provide cover anymore.

Here's some silly fanfic about a possible lead up to a war with China:

1) DPRK continues to act provactively, to the extent the west decided to take action
2) the Us and its allies introduce a measure in UNSC to give the regime a timeline to disarm or else face surgical strikes and presumptive regime change
3) China and America's new, err, BFF veto; anxious about the north being western backed and possibilities of chaos destabilising the region.
4) Trump and Abe say the UN should stfu, and start bombing (conventionally) north korea, while funding ground operations.
5) the Kim regime collapses or flees, but the country devolves into a messy proxy war between America and China/Russia.
6) the trump government announces an explicit anti-china policy (China is a threat to world peace), and begin openly supporting causes like Taiwanese and Tibetan independence. White papers released lauding regime change.
7) all other nations in the region start getting lobbied by the two sides. Most importantly from a nuclear side, is Pakistan (China ally) and India (America ally).
now a further esculation is more hard to figure out, because trump has upset the formerly predictable notion that NATO would swing behind America and Russia against - but they could get drawn in in some combination.
9) flashpoints get worse and worse, and diplomatic avenues are completely suspended. Places like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Korea, South East Asia are all filled with low level conflict, governmental collapse and coups emanating from one side or the other.
10) Taiwan announces it will declare unilateral independence, and that America has promised it military backing. Beijing announces for its part, that they will view this is an explicit act of war.
11)
12) nukes

Obviously there are some hard reaches of logic: although it isn't impossible to get the Iran-Saudi-Israel conflict in; the major risk of nuclear apocalypse - a large interchange of nukes between Russia and NATO is less likely a prospect. Still, even if it did happen (and I doubt it, I'm not ag) it would be horrific and a further blow against the idiocy of nationalism.

[America Needs R'hllor]

nah, perhaps in the 60s-80s, but certainly not today.  If India and Pakistan went stupid, it's not going to drag the west, the Russians and the PRC in.  If Israel and Iran went stupid, same thing.  If the Norks somehow manage to pull it off, same thing.  There would be no reason for the escalation to happen. 

(and even if it all went tits up, the southern hemisphere wouldn't be uninhabitable)

Yeah, agreed. The absolute worst scenario is if the US and Russia go stupid.

[Crumpets]

7) all other nations in the region start getting lobbied by the two sides. Most importantly from a nuclear side, is Pakistan (China ally) and India (America ally).

What makes you think Pakistan would support China and India America in this situation?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

How good are the US's anti missile missiles?

it's a secret

Which means that if you want to know, ask Uncle Vladimir.

[136or142]

Trump would angrily tweet "How dare that dictator beat me to it?"

[Middle-aged Europe]

1) All of North Korea's known nuclear and missile facilities would be taken out in an air campaign within days of the NK's nuclear strike.

2) This is followed up by a U.S.-South Korean-Japanese-Australian ground invasion of North Korea and a toppling of NK's regime.


Both actions probably would have the support of the UN Security Council, with Russia and China at worst abstaining.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

7) all other nations in the region start getting lobbied by the two sides. Most importantly from a nuclear side, is Pakistan (China ally) and India (America ally).

What makes you think Pakistan would support China and India America in this situation?

Follow the money and deals: China is investing heavily in Pakistan, the US is getting heavily behind India.

[Phony Moderate]

Here's a simulation of what would happen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAvvDwqQBvw

[Meclazine for Israel]

How good are the US's anti missile missiles?

it's a secret

Lol. It's good Torie against states with a few missiles.

ABM - Anti-ballistic missile. Isreal has them, Russia has them but the USA has heaps.

It struggles against a regime like Russia where they will lunch hundreds of dummy missiles.

But against North Korea or Iran, would work a treat.

One of the interesting programs was the Sentinel system:



It was replaced by the Safeguard system in the late 1960's.

The Russians complained about these systems and a treaty was reached in 1972. The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty limited the US and Soviet Union to two ABM sites each.

But the USA pulled out:

"On 13 June 2002, the United States withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and recommenced developing missile defense systems that would have formerly been prohibited by the bilateral treaty. The action was stated as needed to defend against the possibility of a missile attack conducted by a rogue state."

and so little is known about the expense or characteristics of the 2017 versions of these systems.

As to the question "What would happen if a nuclear weapon is launched from North Korea towards the USA?" then:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2pB39aYe8E

[Edu]

I got to hand it to Dead0man, he's the only one making sense here.