2017-18 Population Census round

[Tender Branson]

I recently looked at Canada's 2016 Census data, which was released on Wednesday and was interested which countries will have one this year.

This year, mostly developing countries will have a population census (making up around 10% of the world population).

This year's countries include:

* Pakistan (210 million people)
* Egypt (100 million)
* Ethiopia (100 million)
* Colombia (50 million)
* Peru (35 million)
* Mozambique (30 million)
* Chile (18 million)
* Guatemala (18 million)

This will give as an important look if population growth slows down a bit or remains high.

The next big Census round will come in 2020/2021, when virtually all of Europe conducts it - as well as the Americas (US, Mexico, Brazil etc.) as well as China (2020), India (2021), Indonesia (2020), Bangladesh (2021) and Japan (2020).

Nigeria is planning one for next year (2018).

[Tender Branson]

Pakistan should be pretty interesting, because the 2017 Census (conducted in March/April) will be the first in 19 years.

The last one in 1998 showed a population of 132.4 million

I expect it to be up to around 210 million by now (+/- 5 million people).

Because Pakistan is a 99% Muslim country, the growth rate is significantly higher than in neighbouring India. I looked at the (Muslim) districts in India's border states such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Jammu/Kashmir and they have an annual growth rate of around 2.5-3%, compared to around 1.6% for India as a whole. Pakistan is also poorer and less literate than India, so these higher growth rates make sense.

Karachi could have around 25 million people now, btw.

[Tender Branson]

Egypt has started their 2017 Census today, the first in 11 years:

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2017/02/16/615553

It will run until June and results are likely out in July. It will be the most technologically advanced Census so far for the country, with GPS-data, tablets and an online-component.

Under the Muslim brotherhood government, Egypt's population growth increased significantly to around 3% a year due to a massive increase in births, but has fallen back to around 2.5% again by now.

Still, the population back in 2006 was 72.5 million and is now expected to be 93 million (+8 million Egyptians abroad) - for an annual growth of 2.35% over the past 11 years.

That's up from an annual growth of 2.07% between the 1996 and 2006 Census.

Which also means Egypt is a country in which the population growth actually accelerated instead of decreasing ...

[Tender Branson]

Fun side-fact about Pakistan's Census (which I guess already posted back then):

In 2011, Pakistan's Census Bureau conducted a house-listing operation, in which census takers also listed the compound of Osama Bin Laden - slightly before he was killed by US forces.

But even if census takers knew Osama was hiding there (which they probably did not), the info would have remained secret for privacy reasons (the Census Law says that census takers need to keep private info secret).

More here:

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/187158-PBS-had-refused-to-provide-details-about-residents-of-Osamas-house

[Tender Branson]

Pakistan is currently conducting its Population Census, the first one since 1998.

And there's a problem: The military is patrolling along with census takers to screen for illegals and if they find some, they get arrested.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/two-indian-arrested-during-census-exercise-in-pakistan/385057.html

That's kinda illegal IMO, because the Census should be there to count every person present, even illegals.

I wonder if Trump will try the same with the 2020 US Census ...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I believe Lebanon hadn't performed a proper census since before the WWII in order not to upset the national agreement of power-sharing between Maronites and the Muslims.

[Tender Branson]

A suicide-bomber targeted a Census team in Lahore, Pakistan today - killing 6 (4 soldiers and 2 census takers):

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39490769

Plus, the Pakistani Bureau of Statistics has given up on conducting the Census in North and South Waziristan (at the border to Afghanistan) because of security reasons. It will use administrative data instead.

Here are some pictures of the current Pakistan Census (and you can see clearly that Pakistan is still very much a 3rd world country):

http://www.pbscensus.gov.pk/media/content/census-operation

[Diouf]

Danish statistics has published its report about Denmark's population and its development



These lines show immigration (indvandrede), udvandrede (emigration), newborns (fødte), and died (døde). Per 1 Januar 2017, 5.748.769 persons live in Denmark, up from 5.122.065 in 1980. Since 1980, the average expected living age for newborns has increased from 71.2 for men and 77.3 for women to 78.8 and 82.8 respectively. The average age for first time moms has increased from 24.6 to 29.1. The most popular names for newborn in 2016 were Sofia and William.

Immigrants and descendants of immigrants (born in Denmark without a Danish-born Danish citizen parent) make up 12.9% compared to 3.0% in 1980. 58 % of the immigrants are from non-Western countries, while 85% of the descendants of immigrants are. Looking at immigrants only, the country with the biggest share is Poland followed by Turkey, Germany, Syria, Romania, Iraq, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Norway and Iran. The fertitily rate for non-western immigrants is 1.947 compared to 1.736 for Danes.

[Mike88]

The Portuguese statistic bureau (INE) released a few days ago their projections for the Portuguese population until 2080. In 2017, the INE projects the population in 2017 to be around 10.292.000 people - which will only be official by June when they release the 2016 and 2017 projections - and will decrease to 7.478.000 in 2080.

By 2031, Portugal will fall bellow the 10 million barrier and in 2080, 37% of the population will be above 65 years old.

Link.

[Tender Branson]

The Portuguese statistic bureau (INE) released a few days ago their projections for the Portuguese population until 2080. In 2017, the INE projects the population in 2017 to be around 10.292.000 people - which will only be official by June when they release the 2016 and 2017 projections - and will decrease to 7.478.000 in 2080.

By 2031, Portugal will fall bellow the 10 million barrier and in 2080, 37% of the population will be above 65 years old.

Link.

It seems you should take in 200.000 young males from the Middle-East and Africa to stabilize your population.

[Lachi]

Australia will release a preview of last years census next Tuesday, April 11, followed by the full release of all the data on Tuesday, June 27.

[Mike88]

The Portuguese statistic bureau (INE) released a few days ago their projections for the Portuguese population until 2080. In 2017, the INE projects the population in 2017 to be around 10.292.000 people - which will only be official by June when they release the 2016 and 2017 projections - and will decrease to 7.478.000 in 2080.

By 2031, Portugal will fall bellow the 10 million barrier and in 2080, 37% of the population will be above 65 years old.

Link.

It seems you should take in 200.000 young males from the Middle-East and Africa to stabilize your population.

Yeahhh.... Not related to this topic, but you know about that EU program to relocate refugees, right? Well, Portugal has received almost 1000 refugees but according to the media more than 200, with some estimates saying it's already more than 300, have disappeared or fled from Portugal....

[seb_pard]

Today is Census day here in Chile (after the 2012 Census fiasco), a national holiday. There are 580k people approx in the street asking the questions (including my sister). Good day actually.

You can check the questionnarie here (in english) http://www.censo2017.cl/cuestionario-oficial-censo-2017-version-ingles/

There are questionnaries in spanish, mapudungun, english, french, german, portuguese and creole.

[seb_pard]

Some pictures

Bachelet contributing to the process in Renca, a working class commune in northern Santiago




A family interviewed by the President




Army personnel helping the census in isolated parts of the south


In Quilicura (also in northern Santiago) where is a notorious Haitian community, censistas discovered unaccounted houses where migrants live in a precarious situation. This census is key to solve these problems (and punish the landlords that take advantage of this)




There are some problems registered in the south, where some Mapuche communities rejected and attacked the census people. The governor of the zone confirmed that they are not going to be interviewed to avoid major problems

[Tender Branson]

The Census in Pakistan was supposed to be completed next Wednesday, but it turns out that the population in Islamabad is much higher than estimated - so they could extend it by one month:

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1410738/officials-mull-extending-census-month

[Tender Branson]

The 2017 Pakistan population census officially ended yesterday, after 2 months.

There have been some attacks against census takers and army staff, but these were isolated incidents.

There have also been some planning failures/underestimates of the sprawling cities Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad - which led to more census takers being deployed there to count the additionally discovered housings.

But by and large, the Census was conducted as planned.

First results will be out in late July.

I guess the population will be between 205-215 million, up from 132 million in the 1998 census.

The 1998-2017 annual growth rate was probably between 2.4-2.6%

[Tender Branson]

The 2017 Pakistan population census officially ended yesterday, after 2 months.

There have been some attacks against census takers and army staff, but these were isolated incidents.

There have also been some planning failures/underestimates of the sprawling cities Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad - which led to more census takers being deployed there to count the additionally discovered housings.

But by and large, the Census was conducted as planned.

First results will be out in late July.

I guess the population will be between 205-215 million, up from 132 million in the 1998 census.

The 1998-2017 annual growth rate was probably between 2.4-2.6%

This source seems to confirm that the results will show a population between 210-220 million, rather than the 180-200 million that was previously estimated by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and other international organisations.

https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/pakistan/total-population-could-be-over-210-million-in-sixth-census-report

I always assumed that it would be around 210 million+ people and not lower, because Pakistan is a relatively backwards country and Muslims have a much higher birth rate than Hindus in neighbouring India (see my 2nd post from above).

[Tender Branson]

Pakistan will release their first 2017 census results on Monday.

The census was conducted from March-May and is the first since 1998.

The results include total population by province and district and gender (male, female, trans).

According to the link below, the population has grown from 132 million in 1998 to over 210 million - an annual growth rate of at least 2.5%

Karachi now has more than 23 million people.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/219264-Summarised-results-of-census-to-be-presented-to-CCI-on-July-31

[Tender Branson]

Pakistan will release their first 2017 census results on Monday.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/219264-Summarised-results-of-census-to-be-presented-to-CCI-on-July-31

This has been cancelled because of the resignation of Pakistan's PM Sharif.

The results will now be out in November ... *hmm*

[Tender Branson]

... 23 million higher than estimated. Pakistan has also overtaken Brazil.

That's up from 136 million in the 1998 Census.

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... but a Pakistan Bureau of Statistics spokesman said that Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir had a Census population of 15 million:

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https://www.dawn.com/news/1353867

http://punchng.com/pakistan-surpasses-brazil-to-become-fifth-most-populous-nation

I have already anticipated that the Census will show a much a higher population than what the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and international organisations estimated before - because of the backwards state of the country and the high birth rate of the Muslims in this area:

Pakistan should be pretty interesting, because the 2017 Census (conducted in March/April) will be the first in 19 years.

The last one in 1998 showed a population of 132.4 million

I expect it to be up to around 210 million by now (+/- 5 million people).

Because Pakistan is a 99% Muslim country, the growth rate is significantly higher than in neighbouring India. I looked at the (Muslim) districts in India's border states such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Jammu/Kashmir and they have an annual growth rate of around 2.5-3%, compared to around 1.6% for India as a whole. Pakistan is also poorer and less literate than India, so these higher growth rates make sense.

Karachi could have around 25 million people now, btw.

[Tender Branson]

Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu/Kashmir had a combined population of 3.8 million back in 1998.

Kinda strange that it would be 15 million in the 2017 Census ...

The 2017 Census was definitely only conducted in the Pakistani-administered areas and not in the Indian-controlled Kashmir:

http://www.pbscensus.gov.pk/sites/default/files/gis_maps/census_phases.jpg

[Blue3]

Imagine if India, Pakistan, Bangladash, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan were still one country...

[Lord Halifax]

Imagine if India, Pakistan, Bangladash, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan were still one country...

Afghanistan was never part of British India.

[Tender Branson]

Imagine if India, Pakistan, Bangladash, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan were still one country...

+ Myanmar/Burma.

(but were they actually all one "country" at the same time ? I doubt it. Afghanistan was only occupied.)

[Blue3]

Imagine if India, Pakistan, Bangladash, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan were still one country...

Afghanistan was never part of British India.

It was the part of India the British could never conquer.