2017-18 Population Census round

[Santander]

Pakistan Zindabad!

[Tender Branson]

Imagine if India, Pakistan, Bangladash, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan Burma were still one country...

Roughly 2 billion people are now living in that region (up from 0.5 billion in 1950).

[Neo-JacobitefromNewYork]

G-B pop was 1,800,000 in 2015 according to Wikipedia and AJK 4,650,000 projected 2015 from citypopulation.de Seems fishy....

https://www.citypopulation.de/AzadKashmir.html

[Tender Branson]

G-B pop was 1,800,000 in 2015 according to Wikipedia and AJK 4,650,000 projected 2015 from citypopulation.de Seems fishy....

https://www.citypopulation.de/AzadKashmir.html

Yeah. So how can it be 15 million now ?

Maybe the Census Bureau official was also including the population of the Indian-controlled Kashmir ... (but this area alone has 14 million people and the Pakistanis didn't conduct their Census there, obviously).

I think the population of G-B and AJK is about 6-7 million right now, but we have to wait for the final Census report ...

[Tender Branson]

If we look at the growth rates in the provinces surrounding G-B and AJK, their combined population would be around 6.6 million today rather than the 15 million mentioned by the Pakistan Bureau official (of course there could be some additional refugees there from Afghanistan, but I doubt that).

Together with the 207.8 million people in Pakistan, it would bring the total Census 2017 population to 214.4 million (up from 136.2 million in 1998).

The annual growth rate would be 2.42% between 1998 and 2017.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Imagine if India, Pakistan, Bangladash, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan were still one country...

+ Myanmar/Burma.

(but were they actually all one "country" at the same time ? I doubt it. Afghanistan was only occupied.)

And Sri Lanka was always a separate colony.

[Tender Branson]

AJK has grown to only slightly more than 4 million:

https://www.pakistanpoint.com/en/pakistan/news/ajk-population-rises-to-over-4-million-180167.html

So, while the Gilgit-Baltistan figures are still not out, the total Pakistan population will be somewhere between 213 and 214 million.

Brazil currently has 207.5 million, so Pakistan has moved ahead.

[Beezer]

If you truly want to fight climate change tell these people to keep it in their pants. Jesus f'ing Christ.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

If you truly want to fight climate change tell these people to keep it in their pants. Jesus f'ing Christ.

Nothing to do with frequency of f-cking, everything to do with socioeconomic structure and incentives to have children.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

In before Macron-style comment.

[parochial boy]

If you truly want to fight climate change tell these people to keep it in their pants. Jesus f'ing Christ.

Nothing to do with frequency of f-cking, everything to do with socioeconomic structure and incentives to have children.

True, and let's not forget that, like the vast majority of the developing world, fertility rates in Pakistan have fallen consistently over the last 50 years.

[seb_pard]

Preliminary results from the chilean census are going to be released on thursday, although the INE (National Institute of Statistics) released last week natality/mortality data from 2015.

There were 244,670 births in 2015, down from 250,670 in 2014 (-2.5%). The fertility rate is 1.79.

There were 233,434 births from chilean-born mother, down from 243,211 in 2014(-4.0%) and 11,236 from foreign-born mother up from 7,786 in 2014 (+44.3%).

[SoLongAtlas]

They are on track to hit 364,283,000 by 2100 (using the INED sim https://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/population-games/tomorrow-population/, which uses an inaccurate UN figure of 196,744,600 total 2015 pop).

This is unsustainable growth and will become disastrous as climate change kicks in and the river valleys start to lose water due to glacial retreat, shortage of drinking water. India will have the same problem but on a grander scale.

[Tender Branson]

They are on track to hit 364,283,000 by 2100 (using the INED sim https://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/population-games/tomorrow-population/, which uses an inaccurate UN figure of 196,744,600 total 2015 pop).

This is unsustainable growth and will become disastrous as climate change kicks in and the river valleys start to lose water due to glacial retreat, shortage of drinking water. India will have the same problem but on a grander scale.

Ehh ... using current trends (+4.5 million annually), Pakistan will already hit that number in 2050, not 2100.

Which is also the time when Pakistan should overtake Indonesia as 4th-largest country.

Pakistan is then on track to overtake the US in population by 2060, with both having around 405 million people.

Obviously, the big unknown is Nigeria - which still has huge population growth rates (+3% each year) and could overtake Indonesia, Pakistan and the US by then.

Census figures in Nigeria are highly inaccurate and even the Census planned for next year isn't a sure thing yet. It was already planned for 2016, then it was delayed to 2017 and now delayed to 2018 and there are funding problems.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The Census in Colombia has been delayed to the first half of 2018 and the Census in Guatemala to April 2018.

All others (see my first post) are still planned for 2017 or have already been conducted.

[SoLongAtlas]

They are on track to hit 364,283,000 by 2100 (using the INED sim https://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/population-games/tomorrow-population/, which uses an inaccurate UN figure of 196,744,600 total 2015 pop).

This is unsustainable growth and will become disastrous as climate change kicks in and the river valleys start to lose water due to glacial retreat, shortage of drinking water. India will have the same problem but on a grander scale.

Ehh ... using current trends (+4.5 million annually), Pakistan will already hit that number in 2050, not 2100.

Which is also the time when Pakistan should overtake Indonesia as 4th-largest country.

Pakistan is then on track to overtake the US in population by 2060, with both having around 405 million people.

Obviously, the big unknown is Nigeria - which still has huge population growth rates (+3% each year) and could overtake Indonesia, Pakistan and the US by then.

Census figures in Nigeria are highly inaccurate and even the Census planned for next year isn't a sure thing yet. It was already planned for 2016, then it was delayed to 2017 and now delayed to 2018 and there are funding problems.

US will be #4 by 2050



https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/06/22/the-worlds-most-populous-nations-in-2050-infographic/#72b7875b39f6

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Tender asked me to merge a Pakistan thread with main thread. Just sayin'

[Tender Branson]

Egypt's early-2017 census results have been released:

94,798,827 people, up from 72,798,031 in the late-2006 census.

That's an average annual growth rate of 2.6% - or +2.2 million people per year.

Greater Cairo (= Cairo City, Giza- and Qalyubia governorates) now has 24 million people.

http://www.citypopulation.de/Egypt-Cities.html

[Tender Branson]

Egypt's early-2017 census results have been released:

94,798,827 people, up from 72,798,031 in the late-2006 census.

That's an average annual growth rate of 2.6% - or +2.2 million people per year.

Greater Cairo (= Cairo City, Giza- and Qalyubia governorates) now has 24 million people.

http://www.citypopulation.de/Egypt-Cities.html

9.5 million Egyptians live abroad, so the total population is 104,269,501.

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/25350/Egyptian-Population-hits-104-2M

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http://www.egyptindependent.com/9-5-million-egyptians-live-abroad-mostly-saudi-arabia-jordan/

[Tender Branson]

Mozambique has released their 2017 census results yesterday:

28.862.000

2007 Census: 20.579.000

http://www.ine.gov.mz/operacoes-estatisticas/censos/censo-2007/censo-2017/divulgacao-os-resultados-preliminares-iv-rgph-2017

That's an annual growth rate of 3.44% !



In other words: Between the 1997 Census (= 16.1 million people) and 2007, the population increased by 4 million.

But between 2007-2017 it went up by 8 million.

[Tender Branson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5064330,00.html

While Austria's year-end population figures are only out in Febuary, the population on Jan. 1, 2018 will be around 8.830.000, up by some 60.000 vs. the year before.

This was likely because of 88.000 births and 84.000 deaths (based on numbers through September). And an immigration surplus of 56.000 people.

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So, Israel has twice as many births as Austria but only half our death rate. Yet our immigration surplus rate is twice as high as Israel's.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I have mixed feelings on this. On the one hand, it's great that we're growing rather than regressing like many European countries. On the other, much of this growth is probably coming from Haredi Jews, and any new Haredi Jew just means less chance for gay rights and secular policies in the future, as well as an economical burden, given that they refuse to teach basic core subjects in their education system. Also, we don't have much space here and if we continue in this rate without doing something to greatly develop the periphery and the infrastructure we could become a new Bangladesh.

[Tender Branson]

Countries with a population census in 2018:

* New Zealand
* Colombia (delayed from 2017)
* Ethiopia (delayed from 2017)
* Guatemala (delayed from 2017)

* Israel might or might not have one (the last was in 2008), but they have good registers anyway

Some of the following are unsure, because often in corrupt and inefficient hellholes of countries:

* Algeria
* Burkina Faso
* Burundi
* Congo (Rep.)
* Haiti
* Liberia
* Madagascar
* Malawi
* Nigeria (delayed for many years now already and might not happen)
* Sudan (North & South)
* North Korea

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Plus: a census in the DR of Congo would be great, because the last one was in 1984 and the population there could be somewhere between 60 and 100 million right now. Nobody really has a clue.

[danny]

* Israel might or might not have one (the last was in 2008), but they have good registers anyway

Next Israeli census is in 2020.

[Tender Branson]

* Israel might or might not have one (the last was in 2008), but they have good registers anyway

Next Israeli census is in 2020.

Interesting to know, thanks.

Wasn't Palestine also conducting a population census during the last few weeks ?

Did you hear anything about it in the news ? I read that Census takers were arrested by the Israeli police in East Jerusalem ... (in the previous census, the Palestinians would not conduct it in East Jerusalem, because it's under Israeli control).