2017-18 Population Census round

[Tender Branson]

I recently looked at Canada's 2016 Census data, which was released on Wednesday and was interested which countries will have one this year.

This year, mostly developing countries will have a population census (making up around 10% of the world population).

This year's countries include:

* Pakistan (210 million people)
* Egypt (100 million)
* Ethiopia (100 million)
* Colombia (50 million)
* Peru (35 million)
* Mozambique (30 million)
* Chile (18 million)
* Guatemala (18 million)

This will give as an important look if population growth slows down a bit or remains high.

The next big Census round will come in 2020/2021, when virtually all of Europe conducts it - as well as the Americas (US, Mexico, Brazil etc.) as well as China (2020), India (2021), Indonesia (2020), Bangladesh (2021) and Japan (2020).

Nigeria is planning one for next year (2018).

[Tender Branson]

Pakistan should be pretty interesting, because the 2017 Census (conducted in March/April) will be the first in 19 years.

The last one in 1998 showed a population of 132.4 million

I expect it to be up to around 210 million by now (+/- 5 million people).

Because Pakistan is a 99% Muslim country, the growth rate is significantly higher than in neighbouring India. I looked at the (Muslim) districts in India's border states such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Jammu/Kashmir and they have an annual growth rate of around 2.5-3%, compared to around 1.6% for India as a whole. Pakistan is also poorer and less literate than India, so these higher growth rates make sense.

Karachi could have around 25 million people now, btw.

[Tender Branson]

Egypt has started their 2017 Census today, the first in 11 years:

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2017/02/16/615553

It will run until June and results are likely out in July. It will be the most technologically advanced Census so far for the country, with GPS-data, tablets and an online-component.

Under the Muslim brotherhood government, Egypt's population growth increased significantly to around 3% a year due to a massive increase in births, but has fallen back to around 2.5% again by now.

Still, the population back in 2006 was 72.5 million and is now expected to be 93 million (+8 million Egyptians abroad) - for an annual growth of 2.35% over the past 11 years.

That's up from an annual growth of 2.07% between the 1996 and 2006 Census.

Which also means Egypt is a country in which the population growth actually accelerated instead of decreasing ...

[Tender Branson]

Fun side-fact about Pakistan's Census (which I guess already posted back then):

In 2011, Pakistan's Census Bureau conducted a house-listing operation, in which census takers also listed the compound of Osama Bin Laden - slightly before he was killed by US forces.

But even if census takers knew Osama was hiding there (which they probably did not), the info would have remained secret for privacy reasons (the Census Law says that census takers need to keep private info secret).

More here:

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/187158-PBS-had-refused-to-provide-details-about-residents-of-Osamas-house

[Tender Branson]

Pakistan is currently conducting its Population Census, the first one since 1998.

And there's a problem: The military is patrolling along with census takers to screen for illegals and if they find some, they get arrested.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/two-indian-arrested-during-census-exercise-in-pakistan/385057.html

That's kinda illegal IMO, because the Census should be there to count every person present, even illegals.

I wonder if Trump will try the same with the 2020 US Census ...

[Tender Branson]

A suicide-bomber targeted a Census team in Lahore, Pakistan today - killing 6 (4 soldiers and 2 census takers):

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39490769

Plus, the Pakistani Bureau of Statistics has given up on conducting the Census in North and South Waziristan (at the border to Afghanistan) because of security reasons. It will use administrative data instead.

Here are some pictures of the current Pakistan Census (and you can see clearly that Pakistan is still very much a 3rd world country):

http://www.pbscensus.gov.pk/media/content/census-operation

[Tender Branson]

The Portuguese statistic bureau (INE) released a few days ago their projections for the Portuguese population until 2080. In 2017, the INE projects the population in 2017 to be around 10.292.000 people - which will only be official by June when they release the 2016 and 2017 projections - and will decrease to 7.478.000 in 2080.

By 2031, Portugal will fall bellow the 10 million barrier and in 2080, 37% of the population will be above 65 years old.

Link.

It seems you should take in 200.000 young males from the Middle-East and Africa to stabilize your population.

[Tender Branson]

The Census in Pakistan was supposed to be completed next Wednesday, but it turns out that the population in Islamabad is much higher than estimated - so they could extend it by one month:

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1410738/officials-mull-extending-census-month

[Tender Branson]

The 2017 Pakistan population census officially ended yesterday, after 2 months.

There have been some attacks against census takers and army staff, but these were isolated incidents.

There have also been some planning failures/underestimates of the sprawling cities Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad - which led to more census takers being deployed there to count the additionally discovered housings.

But by and large, the Census was conducted as planned.

First results will be out in late July.

I guess the population will be between 205-215 million, up from 132 million in the 1998 census.

The 1998-2017 annual growth rate was probably between 2.4-2.6%

[Tender Branson]

The 2017 Pakistan population census officially ended yesterday, after 2 months.

There have been some attacks against census takers and army staff, but these were isolated incidents.

There have also been some planning failures/underestimates of the sprawling cities Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad - which led to more census takers being deployed there to count the additionally discovered housings.

But by and large, the Census was conducted as planned.

First results will be out in late July.

I guess the population will be between 205-215 million, up from 132 million in the 1998 census.

The 1998-2017 annual growth rate was probably between 2.4-2.6%

This source seems to confirm that the results will show a population between 210-220 million, rather than the 180-200 million that was previously estimated by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and other international organisations.

https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/pakistan/total-population-could-be-over-210-million-in-sixth-census-report

I always assumed that it would be around 210 million+ people and not lower, because Pakistan is a relatively backwards country and Muslims have a much higher birth rate than Hindus in neighbouring India (see my 2nd post from above).

[Tender Branson]

Pakistan will release their first 2017 census results on Monday.

The census was conducted from March-May and is the first since 1998.

The results include total population by province and district and gender (male, female, trans).

According to the link below, the population has grown from 132 million in 1998 to over 210 million - an annual growth rate of at least 2.5%

Karachi now has more than 23 million people.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/219264-Summarised-results-of-census-to-be-presented-to-CCI-on-July-31

[Tender Branson]

Pakistan will release their first 2017 census results on Monday.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/219264-Summarised-results-of-census-to-be-presented-to-CCI-on-July-31

This has been cancelled because of the resignation of Pakistan's PM Sharif.

The results will now be out in November ... *hmm*

[Tender Branson]

... 23 million higher than estimated. Pakistan has also overtaken Brazil.

That's up from 136 million in the 1998 Census.

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... but a Pakistan Bureau of Statistics spokesman said that Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir had a Census population of 15 million:

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https://www.dawn.com/news/1353867

http://punchng.com/pakistan-surpasses-brazil-to-become-fifth-most-populous-nation

I have already anticipated that the Census will show a much a higher population than what the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and international organisations estimated before - because of the backwards state of the country and the high birth rate of the Muslims in this area:

Pakistan should be pretty interesting, because the 2017 Census (conducted in March/April) will be the first in 19 years.

The last one in 1998 showed a population of 132.4 million

I expect it to be up to around 210 million by now (+/- 5 million people).

Because Pakistan is a 99% Muslim country, the growth rate is significantly higher than in neighbouring India. I looked at the (Muslim) districts in India's border states such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Jammu/Kashmir and they have an annual growth rate of around 2.5-3%, compared to around 1.6% for India as a whole. Pakistan is also poorer and less literate than India, so these higher growth rates make sense.

Karachi could have around 25 million people now, btw.

[Tender Branson]

Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu/Kashmir had a combined population of 3.8 million back in 1998.

Kinda strange that it would be 15 million in the 2017 Census ...

The 2017 Census was definitely only conducted in the Pakistani-administered areas and not in the Indian-controlled Kashmir:

http://www.pbscensus.gov.pk/sites/default/files/gis_maps/census_phases.jpg

[Tender Branson]

Imagine if India, Pakistan, Bangladash, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan were still one country...

+ Myanmar/Burma.

(but were they actually all one "country" at the same time ? I doubt it. Afghanistan was only occupied.)

[Tender Branson]

Imagine if India, Pakistan, Bangladash, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan Burma were still one country...

Roughly 2 billion people are now living in that region (up from 0.5 billion in 1950).

[Tender Branson]

G-B pop was 1,800,000 in 2015 according to Wikipedia and AJK 4,650,000 projected 2015 from citypopulation.de Seems fishy....

https://www.citypopulation.de/AzadKashmir.html

Yeah. So how can it be 15 million now ?

Maybe the Census Bureau official was also including the population of the Indian-controlled Kashmir ... (but this area alone has 14 million people and the Pakistanis didn't conduct their Census there, obviously).

I think the population of G-B and AJK is about 6-7 million right now, but we have to wait for the final Census report ...

[Tender Branson]

If we look at the growth rates in the provinces surrounding G-B and AJK, their combined population would be around 6.6 million today rather than the 15 million mentioned by the Pakistan Bureau official (of course there could be some additional refugees there from Afghanistan, but I doubt that).

Together with the 207.8 million people in Pakistan, it would bring the total Census 2017 population to 214.4 million (up from 136.2 million in 1998).

The annual growth rate would be 2.42% between 1998 and 2017.

[Tender Branson]

AJK has grown to only slightly more than 4 million:

https://www.pakistanpoint.com/en/pakistan/news/ajk-population-rises-to-over-4-million-180167.html

So, while the Gilgit-Baltistan figures are still not out, the total Pakistan population will be somewhere between 213 and 214 million.

Brazil currently has 207.5 million, so Pakistan has moved ahead.

[Tender Branson]

They are on track to hit 364,283,000 by 2100 (using the INED sim https://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/population-games/tomorrow-population/, which uses an inaccurate UN figure of 196,744,600 total 2015 pop).

This is unsustainable growth and will become disastrous as climate change kicks in and the river valleys start to lose water due to glacial retreat, shortage of drinking water. India will have the same problem but on a grander scale.

Ehh ... using current trends (+4.5 million annually), Pakistan will already hit that number in 2050, not 2100.

Which is also the time when Pakistan should overtake Indonesia as 4th-largest country.

Pakistan is then on track to overtake the US in population by 2060, with both having around 405 million people.

Obviously, the big unknown is Nigeria - which still has huge population growth rates (+3% each year) and could overtake Indonesia, Pakistan and the US by then.

Census figures in Nigeria are highly inaccurate and even the Census planned for next year isn't a sure thing yet. It was already planned for 2016, then it was delayed to 2017 and now delayed to 2018 and there are funding problems.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The Census in Colombia has been delayed to the first half of 2018 and the Census in Guatemala to April 2018.

All others (see my first post) are still planned for 2017 or have already been conducted.

[Tender Branson]

Egypt's early-2017 census results have been released:

94,798,827 people, up from 72,798,031 in the late-2006 census.

That's an average annual growth rate of 2.6% - or +2.2 million people per year.

Greater Cairo (= Cairo City, Giza- and Qalyubia governorates) now has 24 million people.

http://www.citypopulation.de/Egypt-Cities.html

[Tender Branson]

Egypt's early-2017 census results have been released:

94,798,827 people, up from 72,798,031 in the late-2006 census.

That's an average annual growth rate of 2.6% - or +2.2 million people per year.

Greater Cairo (= Cairo City, Giza- and Qalyubia governorates) now has 24 million people.

http://www.citypopulation.de/Egypt-Cities.html

9.5 million Egyptians live abroad, so the total population is 104,269,501.

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/25350/Egyptian-Population-hits-104-2M

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http://www.egyptindependent.com/9-5-million-egyptians-live-abroad-mostly-saudi-arabia-jordan/

[Tender Branson]

Mozambique has released their 2017 census results yesterday:

28.862.000

2007 Census: 20.579.000

http://www.ine.gov.mz/operacoes-estatisticas/censos/censo-2007/censo-2017/divulgacao-os-resultados-preliminares-iv-rgph-2017

That's an annual growth rate of 3.44% !



In other words: Between the 1997 Census (= 16.1 million people) and 2007, the population increased by 4 million.

But between 2007-2017 it went up by 8 million.

[Tender Branson]

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https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5064330,00.html

While Austria's year-end population figures are only out in Febuary, the population on Jan. 1, 2018 will be around 8.830.000, up by some 60.000 vs. the year before.

This was likely because of 88.000 births and 84.000 deaths (based on numbers through September). And an immigration surplus of 56.000 people.

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So, Israel has twice as many births as Austria but only half our death rate. Yet our immigration surplus rate is twice as high as Israel's.