1951: Eisenhower over Truman (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson (52-46)
1959: JFK over Nixon (same result)
1963: JFK over Goldwater (72-28)
1967: LBJ over Romney (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton (50-48)
A few questions
In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated
In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do
in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins
in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll
A year is an eternity with these things, so everything has to be with a grain of salt.
1955: You assume Ike steps down, I assume he succumbs to a heart attack and dies, rumors about his health were everywhere at the time. Nixon would ascend in such a case.
1979: Reagan was considered fringe-right, while Kennedy was a media darling and gaining on Carter, and Ted is easily more charismatic than Bush Sr. What gets lost in The South gets gained on The West Coast and Northeast. No way Kennedy loses California to Bush Sr who literally needed Reagan coattails and a GOP government to get it in '88. Carter was just an extraordinarily bad fit for the state.
1999: Maybe Bush was leading the polls, but so was Trump in 2015, yet people still expected him to fall. I mean Bush Jr was a bit of yutz.
2007: Like Biden said of Rudy "something + 9/11" was his shtick, no substance at all to him, and I don't think a good chunk of the GOP electorate were ready for a Mormon at the time.
