What would have been your prediction a year before each election

[OSR stands with Israel]

since 1968

Here's Mine

1968:

Romney/Reagan 289
LBJ/Humphrey 249

1972:

Nixon/Agnew 439
Muskie/Jackson 99

1976:

idaho should be blue
Henry Jackson/Birch Bayh 448
Gerald Ford/Nelson Rockerfeller 90


1980:

Reagan/Baker 304
Kennedy/Bayh 234

1984:

Reagan/Bush 363
Mondale/Hart 175


1988:

Gore/Glenn 287
Bush/Dole 251

Bush/Quayle 433
Brown/Gore 105

1996:  Clinton/Gore vs Dole/Voinovich  is too close to call

Missouri decides who wins

2000: Gore/Kerry vs Bush/Ridge is too close to call

Florida decides election

2004: Bush/Cheney over Dean/Gephart

Bush 355
Dean 183

2008: Clinton/Bayh over Guiliani/McCain

Clinton 305
Guiliani 233

2012: Romney/Rubio over Obama/Biden

Romney 292
Obama 246

2016: Rubio/Walker over Hillary/Warren

Rubio 301
Clinton 237

[OSR stands with Israel]

1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                  
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                                
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                  
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

A few questions

In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated

In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do

in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins

in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll

[OSR stands with Israel]

Even assuming you were told the candidates, the only ones in the 20th century that would be anything close to the actual outcome would be 1912 (a Wilson win with <50% would be a given), 1932, 1936, 1964, and 1996.  That leaves 20 out of 25 that weren't really predictable.  I wanted to include 1944 and 1976, but I think most would overstate FDR and Carter's margins predicting those a year in advance.

Definitly not 1996 , Clinton popularity didnt recover till Newt shutdown the goverment in Dec 95 and Jan of 96.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                  
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                                
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                  
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

A few questions

In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated

In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do

in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins

in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll

A year is an eternity with these things, so everything has to be with a grain of salt.

1955: You assume Ike steps down, I assume he succumbs to a heart attack and dies, rumors about his health were everywhere at the time. Nixon would ascend in such a case.

1979: Reagan was considered fringe-right, while Kennedy was a media darling and gaining on Carter, and Ted is easily more charismatic than Bush Sr. What gets lost in The South gets gained on The West Coast and Northeast. No way Kennedy loses California to Bush Sr who literally needed Reagan coattails and a GOP government to get it in '88. Carter was just an extraordinarily bad fit for the state.

1999: Maybe Bush was leading the polls, but so was Trump in 2015, yet people still expected him to fall. I mean Bush Jr was a bit of yutz.

2007: Like Biden said of Rudy "something + 9/11" was his shtick, no substance at all to him, and I don't think a good chunk of the GOP electorate were ready for a Mormon at the time.

Reagan was not considered fringe in 1979 wiki page says he was the odds on favorite to be GOP nominee . You are mixing Reagan from 1975 with Reagan from 1979, who was considered fringe but he nearly took down an incumbent and bush was no where near as strong a Ford in a primary.