Super wealthy towns that heavily swung against Donald Trump

[NOVA Green]

Decided to see how some upper-income places in Idaho voted, being fellow neighbors from the Pacific Northwest and all that....

1.) Blaine County--- MHI $ 64.0k--- Pop 21.3k

Wealthiest county in the state per MHI....

Unfortunately the '16 numbers for the county lump absentees as one category, rather than assigning votes to precinct (Unlike 2012), so I had to try to split absentee votes uniformly based upon ED vote as %, and use the Absentee Vote by Party % to approximate '16 GE numbers, so it is an imperfect methodology, but still gives us a reasonable idea of '16 GE Pres results by place.

A.) Hailey--- Pop 8.0k--- MHI $75.2k

2012: (67 D- 30 R)        +37 D

2016: (62 D- 29 R)        +33 D    (+4% R Swing)

B.) Sun Valley- Pop 2.3k-- MHI $73.2k

2012: (46 D- 52 R)        + 6 R

2016: (58 D- 32 R)        +26 D    (+32% D Swing)

So even regardless of the imperfect nature of calculating the '16 Pres GE results by place within Blaine County, it still appears that there was a massive swing towards Clinton in Sun Valley, and a marginal improvement or decline in the margins in Hailey, with a significant amount of 3rd Party defection.

Now--- the problem with using MHI as a proxy for wealth, is that it can frequently understate the net relative wealth of retirees in places like Sun Valley where the average cost of a House is $670k, and it is not at all unusual to find homes valued at well over a Million Dollars.


2.) Ada County  (Boise Area)--- MHI $55.2k    --- Pop 401.7k

A.) Hidden Spring--- MHI $103.3k   Pop   2.2k   (Uninc Census Designated Place)

(Precinct 1901)--- Note that the pop increased signficantly in this planned community over the past few years

2012: (45 D- 52 R)        + 7 R

2016: (44 D- 44|* R- 6 McMullin- 5 Johnson)    (+7% D Swing)

B.) Eagle---- MHI $80.8k---- Pop 20.5k      (City)

(Precincts 1402, 1403, 1406, 1407, 1408, 1409, 1410, 1411, 1415, 1416)

2012: (30 D- 68 R)        +38 R
2016: (28 D- 61 R)        +33 R        (+5% D Swing)

I didn't break down the McMullin/Johnson Voters because of the time involved in calculating the data, but McMullin did significantly outperform Johnson in every precinct within the City, so even with some young folks that voted Obama in '12 shifting to Johnson, the major story here is obviously the defection of Romney '12 voters to McMullin.

[NOVA Green]

Montana City--- Jefferson County--- MHI $100.2k/Yr-  Pop 2.9k

Wealthiest town in the wealthiest County in Montana....

2012: (33 D- 65 R)       +32 R
2016: (35 D- 58 R)       +23 R     (+9% D Swing)

Will need to look further at wealthier areas in Montana, since I *should* be able to compare & contrast precinct numbers between '12/'16 and believe that there is a comprehensive data set available to lean on in that research project.....

Meanwhile, want to cross-link to a thread that RINO Tom started elsewhere which has a very close overlap, but with a slightly different focus....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267040.0

[NOVA Green]

So very frustrated with the quality of Montana when it comes to looking at where various election precincts are located at within a given county....

So I tried to track down one of the wealthiest places in Montana.... the coal mining community of Colstrip in Rosebud County and total blanks....

This is one of the most frustrating things when you have precinct level data, but no means of tying it to any particular location within a county.

Ok--- then tried to take a look at Fox Lake in (relatively nearby) Richland County.... total bust.

Fine, decide to jump over to the 3rd wealthiest county in Montana (MHI) over in Stillwater County.

get so excited that they have a precinct map located on their county website... then I see this monstrosity...

https://www.stillwatercountymt.gov/sites/default/files/files/ClerkRecorder/Elections/county_precincts_reduced.pdf

Maybe I'm going blind at a young age, but not seeing any precinct numbers on the "precinct map"...

So fine.... then I scroll through the county website and see a link to a GiS map.... thinking it's a jackpot, I start to work through only to discover that there are no precinct layers located or accessible within the map!

https://helenamontanamaps.org/Html5Viewer/?viewer=stillwater

The official State/County websites are kind of crap, but still.

So Ok I find an alternate source that may or may not be accurate with precinct level boundaries in various places.... and was able to find an identifier for a community I was looking for (Take 3)

http://www.usboundary.com/Tools/Tile%20Maps/Voting%20District/Montana

So Park City Montana (Stillwater County)---- MHI $58.8k/Yr- Pop 1.0k

2012: (30 D- 69 R)       +39 R
2016: (19 D- 74 R)       +55 R    (+16% R Swing)....

But.... the voting population in the precinct over doubled between 2012 and 2016, even though the population of the community didn't....

So this is one of the fundamental frustrations that those of us that work in precinct level data face on a daily, weekly, monthly, and decade long basis.....

So frustration aside, I'm taking a break from Montana for awhile, and moving on to states that do a better job of providing data to the customers (The Public).

I basically wasted over an hour of my time for crap....

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- frustration aside with Montana, I had already run a few numbers on the wealthiest places within the wealthiest County of the Great State of Ohio.

True confession I did live in Ohio for a few years a couple decades back, so have always had a special place for the Buckeye State in my heart, and apparently they have decided to return the favor by producing much better election data and much more accessible some 20 years later!

Delaware County---(Suburban Columbus)  MHI $ 89.8k---- Pop 178.1k

1.) Powell---- MHI $132.6k---- Pop 11.7k

2012: (36 D- 63 R)      +27 R
2016: (43 D- 51 R)      + 8 R     (+19% Dem Swing)

2.) Dublin---MHI $113.2k---   Pop 42.0k

2012: (30 D- 69 R)       +39 R
2016: (38 D- 57 R)       +19 R    (+20% Dem Swing)

Dublin comes with a giant Asterix, since the vast majority of the City is actually located within Franklin County....

Thanks to the time waste of Montana, I haven't pulled those numbers yet.

Still, the pattern is illustrative of the major swings towards Clinton among upper-income voters, even in the MidWest.... It is actually quite interesting that HRC performed as well among wealthy voters in Powell, Ohio as she did within the state of Ohio.

Will need to run some numbers from other upper-income communities within the Midwest to see if this a variance, or is representative of similar towns and communities elsewhere within the region.

Now---- I'm not the only one who has access to and follows this data, so feel free to jump in and contribute....

[NOVA Green]

Wyoming---

Campbell County:

(Wealthiest Place in wealthiest County)

Sleepy Hollow--- MHI $ 102.4k--- Pop 1.1k


2012: (12.8% D- 86.2% R)       +73% R
2016: (6.3% D-   86.2% R)       +80% R      (+7% R Swing)

So here we have an uber-wealthy place that swung towards the Pubs in '16.

Teton County---

Rafter J Ranch---- MHI $120.7k--- Pop 1.6k

2012: (58 D- 38 R)                  +20% D
2016: (65 D- 24 R)                  +41% D        (+21% D Swing)

So here is a classic compare/contrast about relative wealth in Wyoming, with the latter maybe more indicative than the former in terms of swings...

Still, am getting a bit tired of Wyoming after spending a few hours on this project, but at least I know where I can pull precinct level data from, and where data is sketchy, and I suspect the massive variance is relatively wealthy Wyoming residents versus out of state wealthy retirees, that tend to cluster towards certain locations....

[NOVA Green]

Pulled a few numbers from the wealthiest places in Nebraska...

1.) Waverly- (Lancaster County) MHI $77.7k-  Pop 3.4k

2012: (36 D- 62 R)        +26 R
2016: (25 D- 68 R)        +43 R     (+17% Rep Swing)

*** Note that Lancaster does not break down absentee ballots by Precinct for either '12 nor '16, which was roughly 25% of the County vote. Also, note that in the County absentee ballots were heavily Dem in both elections, so we have a potential significant distortion with any precinct level results here.

2.) Gretna-   (Sarpy County)--- MHI $73.7k-  Pop 5.1k

Precincts 59 & 60

2012: (32 D- 66 R)      +34 R
2016: (29 D- 62 R)      +33 R   (+1% D Swing)

3.) Papillion- (Sarpy County)--- MHI $ 72.4k- Pop 20.2k

Precincts 36,38,39,40, & 42).... There appears to be a few split precincts not included, but had to work with the best data available.

2012: (36 D- 62 R)       +26 R
2016: (33 D- 57 R)       +24 R   (+2% D Swing)

4.) Yankee Hill- (Lancaster County)- MHI $93.6- Pop 730

2012: (37 D- 62 R)        +25 R
2016: (32 D- 61 R)        +29 R   (+4% R Swing)

So again, insert caveat about absentee votes in Lancaster County....

Interestingly enough Nebraska appears to be one of the few states in the Country thus far where there does not appear to have been a swing towards Clinton of upper-income voters, based upon this limited data selection...

Some of this might be the imbalance inherent in solely looking at MHI by cities/places.... so for example it could well be that there are relatively wealthy precincts in Omaha and Lincoln for example where there were significant swings towards the Democratic Party in '16.... I mean even looking at uninc areas in West Houston Texas, this phenomenon was evident.

To what extent is there a "selection bias" and differences in relatively affluent voting patterns in places like Omaha and Lincoln where real estate is relatively cheap between those that would rather live in Exurban settings versus in nice leafy older neighborhoods within a "City"?

[NOVA Green]

Since I was in the neighborhood, I decided to run some numbers from Kansas, to see "what's the matter with Kansas" or "what's right with Kansas" depending upon one's political paradigms.

Namely the wealthiest county within the state, and if you were to look at the total population (552k), would be larger than many other well known cities within the US, including Tucson, Fresno, Sacramento, Long Beach, and yes even larger than Kansas City....

I confess it's also a placed I enjoyed visiting a few times some 20+ years back, along with KC and one of the "cool" places least on the national radar.

Johnson County Kansas-----

Sixth wealthiest places....

1.) Mission Hills-    MHI $226.3k--- Pop 3.5k

2012: (31 D- 68 R)      +37 R
2016: (47 D- 46 R)      + 1 D    (+38% Dem Swing)   !!!

2.) Leawood-   MHI $136.0k--   Pop 32.3k

2012: (34 D- 65 R)      +31 R
2016: (44 D- 48 R)      + 4 R    (+27% Dem Swing)

3.) Mission Woods- MHI $ 135.6k-- Pop 160

2012: (49 D- 49 R)        Tie
2016: (57 D- 39 R)       +18 D   (+18% Dem Swing)

4.) Lake Quivira-   MHI $129.3k-  Pop 910

2012: (32 D- 67 R)      +35 R
2016: (29 D- 54 R)      +25 R    (+10% Dem Swing)---- Look at those 3rd Party Votes?!?

5.) Westwood Hills-  MHI $118.8k-  Pop 420

2012: (59 D- 40 R)       +19 D
2016: (68 D- 24 R)        +44 D    (+23% Dem Swing)

6.) Fairway---- MHI $106.1k--- Pop 3.9k

2012: (49* D- 49 R)    +0% D
2016: (60 D- 28 R)      +32  D    (+32% Dem Swing)


WTF is going on here?

Although I confess I am not an expert on the KC area, these swings are astounding compared to virtually anywhere else we have seen, where 15-20% swings are not totally uncommon within the context of the '16 Presidential Election among many relatively affluent voters.

What I do wonder is what extent did HRC benefit from a backlash against the hijacking of the Kansas Republican Party by economic and social conservatives, and additionally is this part of a longer term local realignment within Kansas politics that will remain and allow Kansas to become competitive again at statewide, and even potentially at some point in the future at the Presidential level....

Anyways---- thought I would share and see if any of y'all have an opinion.

[Tekken_Guy]

Since I was in the neighborhood, I decided to run some numbers from Kansas, to see "what's the matter with Kansas" or "what's right with Kansas" depending upon one's political paradigms.

Namely the wealthiest county within the state, and if you were to look at the total population (552k), would be larger than many other well known cities within the US, including Tucson, Fresno, Sacramento, Long Beach, and yes even larger than Kansas City....

I confess it's also a placed I enjoyed visiting a few times some 20+ years back, along with KC and one of the "cool" places least on the national radar.

Johnson County Kansas-----

Sixth wealthiest places....

1.) Mission Hills-    MHI $226.3k--- Pop 3.5k

2012: (31 D- 68 R)      +37 R
2016: (47 D- 46 R)      + 1 D    (+38% Dem Swing)   !!!

2.) Leawood-   MHI $136.0k--   Pop 32.3k

2012: (34 D- 65 R)      +31 R
2016: (44 D- 48 R)      + 4 R    (+27% Dem Swing)

3.) Mission Woods- MHI $ 135.6k-- Pop 160

2012: (49 D- 49 R)        Tie
2016: (57 D- 39 R)       +18 D   (+18% Dem Swing)

4.) Lake Quivira-   MHI $129.3k-  Pop 910

2012: (32 D- 67 R)      +35 R
2016: (29 D- 54 R)      +25 R    (+10% Dem Swing)---- Look at those 3rd Party Votes?!?

5.) Westwood Hills-  MHI $118.8k-  Pop 420

2012: (59 D- 40 R)       +19 D
2016: (68 D- 24 R)        +44 D    (+23% Dem Swing)

6.) Fairway---- MHI $106.1k--- Pop 3.9k

2012: (49* D- 49 R)    +0% D
2016: (60 D- 28 R)      +32  D    (+32% Dem Swing)


WTF is going on here?

Although I confess I am not an expert on the KC area, these swings are astounding compared to virtually anywhere else we have seen, where 15-20% swings are not totally uncommon within the context of the '16 Presidential Election among many relatively affluent voters.

What I do wonder is what extent did HRC benefit from a backlash against the hijacking of the Kansas Republican Party by economic and social conservatives, and additionally is this part of a longer term local realignment within Kansas politics that will remain and allow Kansas to become competitive again at statewide, and even potentially at some point in the future at the Presidential level....

Anyways---- thought I would share and see if any of y'all have an opinion.

Anti-Trump sentiment + Anti-Brownback sentiment + high education = big democratic swing!

[StevenShu]

I wonder what the swing was in Yarrow Point / Hunts Point, WA.

[Del Tachi]

Since I was in the neighborhood, I decided to run some numbers from Kansas, to see "what's the matter with Kansas" or "what's right with Kansas" depending upon one's political paradigms.

Namely the wealthiest county within the state, and if you were to look at the total population (552k), would be larger than many other well known cities within the US, including Tucson, Fresno, Sacramento, Long Beach, and yes even larger than Kansas City....

I confess it's also a placed I enjoyed visiting a few times some 20+ years back, along with KC and one of the "cool" places least on the national radar.

Johnson County Kansas-----

Sixth wealthiest places....

1.) Mission Hills-    MHI $226.3k--- Pop 3.5k

2012: (31 D- 68 R)      +37 R
2016: (47 D- 46 R)      + 1 D    (+38% Dem Swing)   !!!

2.) Leawood-   MHI $136.0k--   Pop 32.3k

2012: (34 D- 65 R)      +31 R
2016: (44 D- 48 R)      + 4 R    (+27% Dem Swing)

3.) Mission Woods- MHI $ 135.6k-- Pop 160

2012: (49 D- 49 R)        Tie
2016: (57 D- 39 R)       +18 D   (+18% Dem Swing)

4.) Lake Quivira-   MHI $129.3k-  Pop 910

2012: (32 D- 67 R)      +35 R
2016: (29 D- 54 R)      +25 R    (+10% Dem Swing)---- Look at those 3rd Party Votes?!?

5.) Westwood Hills-  MHI $118.8k-  Pop 420

2012: (59 D- 40 R)       +19 D
2016: (68 D- 24 R)        +44 D    (+23% Dem Swing)

6.) Fairway---- MHI $106.1k--- Pop 3.9k

2012: (49* D- 49 R)    +0% D
2016: (60 D- 28 R)      +32  D    (+32% Dem Swing)


WTF is going on here?

Although I confess I am not an expert on the KC area, these swings are astounding compared to virtually anywhere else we have seen, where 15-20% swings are not totally uncommon within the context of the '16 Presidential Election among many relatively affluent voters.

What I do wonder is what extent did HRC benefit from a backlash against the hijacking of the Kansas Republican Party by economic and social conservatives, and additionally is this part of a longer term local realignment within Kansas politics that will remain and allow Kansas to become competitive again at statewide, and even potentially at some point in the future at the Presidential level....

Anyways---- thought I would share and see if any of y'all have an opinion.

Anti-Trump sentiment + Anti-Brownback sentiment + high education = big democratic swing!

I also think that KC is one of the fastest growing cities in the Midwest.  That kind of economic dynamism is changing the city and its suburbs quite rapidly, and increased economic dynamism often spells more social/political dynamism as well as people become less wed to the old ways of life.

[NOVA Green]

Since I was in the neighborhood, I decided to run some numbers from Kansas, to see "what's the matter with Kansas" or "what's right with Kansas" depending upon one's political paradigms.

Namely the wealthiest county within the state, and if you were to look at the total population (552k), would be larger than many other well known cities within the US, including Tucson, Fresno, Sacramento, Long Beach, and yes even larger than Kansas City....

I confess it's also a placed I enjoyed visiting a few times some 20+ years back, along with KC and one of the "cool" places least on the national radar.

Johnson County Kansas-----

Sixth wealthiest places....

1.) Mission Hills-    MHI $226.3k--- Pop 3.5k

2012: (31 D- 68 R)      +37 R
2016: (47 D- 46 R)      + 1 D    (+38% Dem Swing)   !!!

2.) Leawood-   MHI $136.0k--   Pop 32.3k

2012: (34 D- 65 R)      +31 R
2016: (44 D- 48 R)      + 4 R    (+27% Dem Swing)

3.) Mission Woods- MHI $ 135.6k-- Pop 160

2012: (49 D- 49 R)        Tie
2016: (57 D- 39 R)       +18 D   (+18% Dem Swing)

4.) Lake Quivira-   MHI $129.3k-  Pop 910

2012: (32 D- 67 R)      +35 R
2016: (29 D- 54 R)      +25 R    (+10% Dem Swing)---- Look at those 3rd Party Votes?!?

5.) Westwood Hills-  MHI $118.8k-  Pop 420

2012: (59 D- 40 R)       +19 D
2016: (68 D- 24 R)        +44 D    (+23% Dem Swing)

6.) Fairway---- MHI $106.1k--- Pop 3.9k

2012: (49* D- 49 R)    +0% D
2016: (60 D- 28 R)      +32  D    (+32% Dem Swing)


WTF is going on here?

Although I confess I am not an expert on the KC area, these swings are astounding compared to virtually anywhere else we have seen, where 15-20% swings are not totally uncommon within the context of the '16 Presidential Election among many relatively affluent voters.

What I do wonder is what extent did HRC benefit from a backlash against the hijacking of the Kansas Republican Party by economic and social conservatives, and additionally is this part of a longer term local realignment within Kansas politics that will remain and allow Kansas to become competitive again at statewide, and even potentially at some point in the future at the Presidential level....

Anyways---- thought I would share and see if any of y'all have an opinion.

Anti-Trump sentiment + Anti-Brownback sentiment + high education = big democratic swing!

I also think that KC is one of the fastest growing cities in the Midwest.  That kind of economic dynamism is changing the city and its suburbs quite rapidly, and increased economic dynamism often spells more social/political dynamism as well as people become less wed to the old ways of life.

That's a really good point and something that fell under my radar.

After you posted this, I pulled up a few articles on Metro KC, and it does appear that there has been a significant "In-Migration" growth, especially in 2016, and what really jumped out at me is that Metro KC recently surpassed Metro SLO in total population.

https://kceconomy.org/2017/03/24/kcs-population-growth-suggests-strong-economy/

http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/yael-t-abouhalkah/article28605484.html

That being said, even if we were to assume that newer migrants to Metro KC are more likely to skew Upper Middle Class, it wouldn't solely explain the dramatic shift in margins that we've observed in these areas of Johnson County... you made a really decent point about the economic and social/political dynamism, where it does appear that Metro KC appears to be on the verge of having more of a "collective" social identity where the Metro identifies itself as such, as opposed to a exurbs/suburbs vs "The City" type of mentality.

I'm most familiar with the largest cities of the West Coast in this regard, and certainly in Seattle, Portland, and Bay Area California, this trend started in the late '80s, accelerated in the '90s/'00s, and by the time we hit 2016 created an unusual scenario where some of the wealthier communities in those Metro areas were starting to vote much more similarly to working-class precincts...

We have seen a similar phenomenon in NoVA, and are possibly starting to see something going on in Metro Atlanta, Columbus, Dallas, & Houston, although this could just as easily be statistical noise because of the unusual nature of the Trump candidacy, so we won't know further for a few more election cycles.

[NOVA Green]

A few small updates to represent the Great States of Arizona and Utah....

Would have more data, but alas got so frustrated trying to pull numbers from Utah, that I cut Arizona a bit short....

Feel free to ask if you want to contribute pulling some numbers....

Utah:

Silver Summit (Summit County)-   MHI $130.3k- Pop 3.5k

2012: (55 D- 41 R)       +13 D
2016: (61 D- 28 R)       +33 D    (+20% Dem Swing)

Arizona:

Paradise Valley (Maricopa County)-  MHI $125.9k-  Pop 13.1k

(Includes precincts of Doubletree, Cheney, Palo Crisi, and Clearwater (Split) )

2012: (28 D- 71 R)       +43 R
2016: (39 D- 56 R)       +17 R    (+26% Dem Swing) !!!

Confess every time I hear about Paradise Valley it reminds me of this old classic G&R song from the '80s--- Paradise City

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbm6GXllBiw

Ok--- I digress, and definitely more to look at from Arizona and elsewhere.... Still surprised to see not just the swings but the +11% increase in the Dem Vote Share with a -15% on the Pub side--- not tons of 3rd Party voters in this wealthy older folks community.

Edit: Additionally it appears that part of the reason that "Sheriff Joe" lost in Maricopa, might well have been a result of an extremely strong performance by the Democratic challenger who outperformed HRC and who significantly underperformed Trump in what has been a traditionally extremely overwhelmingly Republican area in Metro Phoenix.

[NOVA Green]

Updated to reflect some more recent work on another thread....

Add in the wealthiest place in the wealthiest County in Arizona----

Paradise Valley--- (Maricopa County)--- MHI $125.9k/yr---- Pop 13.1k

2012: (28 D- 71 R)    +43 R
2016: (39 D- 56 R)    +17 R    (+26% Dem Swing)

Iowa---- Dallas County (Des Moines Suburb)

Wealthiest Places:

1.) Clive- Pop 15.9k-   MHI $91.0k/Yr

2016: (42 D- 50* R)    +8 R
2012: (34 D- 65 R)     +31 R    (+23% Dem Swing)

2.) Urbandale- Pop 40.3k-  MHI $82.0k    (Split City---- majority in Polk County)

The wealthiest precincts are in Dallas County MHI ~$120k/Yr

2016: (40 D- 53 R)      +13 R
2012: (34 D- 65 R)      +31 R    (+18% Dem Swing).

Texas--- Rockwall County--- MHI $ 86.1k/Yr--- ('16: 24 D- 71 R)--- ('12: 23 D- 76 R)  +6% D Swing

Wealthiest place(s) in Rockwall....

Heath:                               MHI $133.8k/Yr--- Pop 7.4k
McLendon- Chisholm           MHI $109.0k/Yr--  Pop 2.3k

Ethnically, overwhelmingly non-Latino White (Heath 93%, McLendon 78%)

Unfortunately the precincts are split out neatly, so had to combine these two communities to get the best possible approximation.....  (Precincts 2-C and 3-C)

2016: (78 R- 17 D)---  2012: (89 R- 11 D)    +17% D Swing

[nclib]

Were there any towns/cities/townships that swung heavily against Trump, but are NOT super-wealthy? I would bet Darien and elsewhere in Fairfield County, CT would be among the biggest Dem swings among towns in states which such data.

[NOVA Green]

A few other states represented that I pulled from some research I was doing on another thread...

Georgia- Forsyth County- Bear Creek- MHI $ 114k- Pop 56.8k
2012: (20 D- 79 R)-   2016: (30 D- 66 R)-    +23% D Swing


South Carolina- Beaufort County- Hilton Head- MHI $70k- Pop 38.0k
2012: (26 D- 72 R)-   2016: (30 D- 66 R)-      +10% D Swing


North Carolina- Wake County- Bartons Creek Twshp- MHI $ 132.7k-  Pop 22.9k
2012: (37 D- 62 R)-- 2016: (43 D- 51 R)     +17% D Swing

North Carolina- Wake County- White Oak Twshp-  MHI $ 102.3k- Pop 76.1k
2012: (49 D- 49* R)-- 2016: (55 D- 39 R)    + 16% D Swing

North Carolina- Wake County- Cary-  MHI $ 90.3k-  Pop 141.3k
2012: (53 D- 45 R)--- 2016: (59 D- 37 R)---  +14% D Swing


Florida- St Johns County- Fruit Grove- MHI $ 95.6k- Pop 29.6k
2012: (23 D- 77 R)--- 2016: (26 D- 70 R)---  +10% D Swing

Florida- St Johns County- Saw Grass- MHI $  86.1k-  Pop 5.0k
2012: (26 D- 73 R)--- 2016: (31 D- 65 R)   +13% D Swing


Maine- Cumberland County- Cumberland- MHI $ 100.8k-  Pop 7.3k
2012: (53 D- 45 R)--- 2016: (60 D- 33 R)    +19% D Swing

Maine- Cumberland County- Cape Elizabeth- MHI $ 98.1k-  Pop 9.1k
2012: (63 D- 35 R)--- 2016: (70 D- 25 R)    +17% D Swing

Maine- Cumberland County- Falmouth-  MHI $ 94.9k- Pop 11.3k
2012: (55 D- 44 R)--- 2016: (61 D- 33 R)     +17% D Swing

[NOVA Green]

Were there any towns/cities/townships that swung heavily against Trump, but are NOT super-wealthy? I would bet Darien and elsewhere in Fairfield County, CT would be among the biggest Dem swings among towns in states which such data.

This is a pretty interesting question and definitely an area worth exploring in further detail from our fellow Atlasians....

I sure there are likely quite a few places across the country....

I would imagine they would be more likely to be concentrated around Metro areas in the Northeast/West Coast, where Trump was not especially popular, many working and Middle Class communities with larger numbers of Latino and Asian-Americans, some college towns scattered around.

Since I already had the '12 and '16 spreadsheets open for Maine, I decided to take a look around to see if we could find any interesting information there.

Overall, a vast majority of places in Maine swung hard for Trump, however we do have about 30 places that swung against Trump that don't appear to be extremely wealthy based on MHI (Although there are some upper middle-class places on the list below)....

Cumberland County-

Portland: MHI $ 44.5k- Pop 66.2k
2012: (75 D- 20 R)--- 2016: (76 D- 18 R)--- +3% D Swing

South Portland: MHI $ 52.8k- Pop 25.1k
2012: (68 D- 28 R)--- 2016: (67 D- 27 R)---  +1% D Swing

There are also some Middle-Class and moderately upper Middle-Class areas (by income) that swung towards HRC as well (Pownal, Chebeague Island, Yarmouth, North Yarmouth, Scarborough, Freeport).

Hancock- County

Castine- MHI $ 41.6k- Pop 1.5k
2012: (56 D- 40 R)--- 2016: (57 D- 35 R)    +6% D Swing

(Home to the Marine Maritime Academy 1k students enrolled)

You have some other towns in Hanock County that don't appear particularly wealthy that swung towards Clinton, although are above the Maine MHI...

Brooklin: MHI $ 48.8k- Pop 870: '12: (63 D- 33 R)-  '16: (62 D- 32 R)   +0.1% D Swing
Swans Island: MHI $ 51.9k- Pop 311: (40 D- 53 R)- '16: (41 D- 49 R)    +5% D Swing

A few other towns that are above the US MHI (Bar Harbor, Brooksville, Mount Desert) swung towards HRC by 2-4%

Kennebec County

Hallowell- MHI $ 52.2k- Pop 2.4k: '12: (69 D- 26 R)--- '16: (69 D- 24 R)    +2% D Swing

Lincoln County


Damariscotta- MHI $ 43.3k- Pop 2.1k: '12: (57 D- 37 R)--- '16: (58 D- 35 R)  +3% D Swing
Southport- MHI $47.3k--- Pop 600: '12: (47 D- 51 R)--- '16: (52 D- 43 R)   +13% D Swing
Newcastle- MHI $ 49.5k- Pop 1.8k: '12: (61 D- 35 R)--- '16: (64 D- 31 R)    +7 % D Swing

Waldo County

Belfast-- MHI $33.3--- Pop 6.7k: '12: (62 D- 34 R)--- '16: (61 D- 32 R)    +1% D Swing
Lincolnville- MHI $44.0k--- Pop 2.2k--- '12: (59 D- 36 R)--- '16: (58 D- 34 R)  +1% D Swing
Islesboro- MHI $ 56.2k--- Pop 600--- '12: (66 D- 31 R)--- '16: (67 D- 28 R)-  +4% D Swing

York County

Overall County is wealthier than most in Maine and MHI is higher than US average.

Ogunquit- MHI $57.5k--- Pop 1,1k-- '12 (60 D- 37 R); '16 (64 D- 32 R)    +9% D Swing
Kittery- MHI $60.9k--- Pop 9.5k--- '12: (63 D- 33 R); '16: (62 D- 31 R)    +1% D Swing
York--  MHI $ 66.5k--- Pop 12.6k--- '12: (56 D- 41 R); '16: (57 D- 38 R)  +4% D Swing
Kennebunkport- MHI $ 69.1k- Pop 3.5k-- '12: (54 D- 43 R); '16: (56 D- 38 R)  +7% D Swing
Kennebunk- MHI $ 75.4k-- Pop 10.9k--- '12: (56 D- 40 R); '16: (58 D- 36 R)  +6% D Swing

So, there were a small number of working and Middle-Class areas in Maine that swung towards Clinton in '16, as well as some upper-income and even the three wealthiest places in Maine by MHI. Honestly, looking at the large swings in most of the State, the only thing that really saved 3/4 electoral votes in Maine for HRC was holding onto working-class Democratic support in Portland, and some of the swings in upper Middle-Class and wealthier areas....

[NOVA Green]

Felt in the mood to pull up some data on Oklahoma....

(Oklahoma City Area)

Canadian County---

Wealthiest Places:

1.) Census Tract---- 301300--- MHI $ 100.66--- Pop 4.6k
(Precincts 226 & 308)--- Approximate match with Census Tract Lines

2012: (15.1 D- 84.9 R)---+69.8% R; 2016: (11.7 D- 82.7 R)---+71.0% R   (+1.2% R Swing)

2.)  Census Tract--- 301008---  MHI $ 91.4k--- Pop 6.5k
(Precinct 300)--- Approx overlap with Census Lines

2012: (39.1 D- 60.9)---- +21.8% R; 2016: (41.5+ D- 50.5_R) +9.0% R    (+12.8% D Swing)

3.) Piedmont----  MHI $72.6k--- Pop 6.0k

(Precincts 200, 503, 504, & 506)

2012: (22.4 D- 77.6 R)---+55.2% R; 2016: (19.4 D- 74.0 R)---+ 54.6 % R     (+0.6% D Swing)

Oklahoma County

1.) Lake Aluma--- MHI $ 233.8k--- Pop 104

Wrapped into much larger precinct--- impossible to isolate

2.) Nichols Hills--- MHI $ 148.0k--- Pop 3.8k

(Precinct 12).... close overlap with census tract boundaries, although the tract I looked at is closer to $155k

2012: (39.1 D- 60.9 R)    + 21.8 R; 2016: (41.5+ D- 50.5_ R) +9.0 R    (+12.8% D Swing)

3.) Census Tract 108101--- MHI $133k--- Pop 3.6k

(Precinct 109)

2012: (25.4 D- 74.6 R)   +49.2 R; 2016: (30.2 D- 62.8 R)---   +32.6 R    (+16.6% D Swing)

4.) Census Tract 101700--- MHI $ 135.8k--- Pop 1.3k

Wealthier downtown chunk of "downtown" OKC.

(Precincts 200 & 204)--- Ok, these lines are slightly sloppy. Anyone want to take a look to see if there's a better match for this Census Tract?

2012: (62.5 D- 37.5 R)   +25.0 D;  2016: (64.6 D- 25.7 R)    +38.9 D      (+13.9% D Swing)


So very interesting preliminary numbers....

In Oklahoma County, it looks like the wealthier areas swung towards HRC relatively similarly to similar areas elsewhere... If the numbers are accurate for the "downtown" precincts, it looks like these areas are more Democratic than some similarly affluent areas of places in Houston for example, although with a smaller swing.

In the suburbs and exurbs of Canadian County, the data is a bit more mixed, with a swing towards Trump.... The one exception was an area right over the Oklahoma County line. So the exurbs of OKC are looking more like that of Omaha for example.













..

[nclib]

Were there any towns/cities/townships that swung heavily against Trump, but are NOT super-wealthy? I would bet Darien and elsewhere in Fairfield County, CT would be among the biggest Dem swings among towns in states which such data.

This is a pretty interesting question and definitely an area worth exploring in further detail from our fellow Atlasians....

I sure there are likely quite a few places across the country....

I would imagine they would be more likely to be concentrated around Metro areas in the Northeast/West Coast, where Trump was not especially popular, many working and Middle Class communities with larger numbers of Latino and Asian-Americans, some college towns scattered around.

I looked up other towns in New England with strong Dem swings. The Conn. towns in the list below are well-off, not sure about the other ones.

Fairfield County, Connecticut

Greenwich
Darien
New Canaan
Wilton
Weston
Westport

Southborough, Worcester County, MA
Wenham, Essex County, MA
Manchester-by-the-Sea, Essex County, MA
Weston, Middlesex County, MA

Norfolk County, Mass.

Wellesley
Dover
Medfield
Cohasset

Hingham, Plymouth County, Mass.
New Castle, Rockingham County, NH
Frey Island, Cumberland County, Maine

[Strudelcutie4427]

Were there any towns/cities/townships that swung heavily against Trump, but are NOT super-wealthy? I would bet Darien and elsewhere in Fairfield County, CT would be among the biggest Dem swings among towns in states which such data.

This is a pretty interesting question and definitely an area worth exploring in further detail from our fellow Atlasians....

I sure there are likely quite a few places across the country....

I would imagine they would be more likely to be concentrated around Metro areas in the Northeast/West Coast, where Trump was not especially popular, many working and Middle Class communities with larger numbers of Latino and Asian-Americans, some college towns scattered around.

I looked up other towns in New England with strong Dem swings. The Conn. towns in the list below are well-off, not sure about the other ones.

Fairfield County, Connecticut

Greenwich
Darien
New Canaan
Wilton
Weston
Westport

Southborough, Worcester County, MA
Wenham, Essex County, MA
Manchester-by-the-Sea, Essex County, MA
Weston, Middlesex County, MA

Norfolk County, Mass.

Wellesley
Dover
Medfield
Cohasset

Hingham, Plymouth County, Mass.
New Castle, Rockingham County, NH
Frey Island, Cumberland County, Maine

The Massachusetts ones are all very wealthy towns, you're spot on. Same with Newcastle, NH. Although in MA I'd also add Boxford, Andover, and Lynnfield (Essex) and Scituate, Norwell, and Duxbury (Plymouth)

[Lord Admirale]

Literally my entire county.

[NOVA Green]

Literally my entire county.

Not sure which County you are referring to let alone an individual "wealthy community", which was the topic at hand...

Do you have any updates to the thread regarding '12-'16 election swings in areas not yet covered to date, or maybe I am just misunderstanding the point you were attempting to make.... ?

[AN63093]

More interesting might be the finding the wealthiest town that swung toward Trump.

This post might've gotten lost in the shuffle a bit, but wanted to bring it back up, as to me- this is by far the more interesting question.  Has anyone done a list on these?

Not to discredit the work NOVA Green has done in this thread of course.  Excellent job, NOVA G.

Some initial places to look might be Putnam NY (I think this one was mentioned), also perhaps Calvert MD.  Worth looking into some places in Nassau and Suffolk NY as well.

[NOVA Green]

More interesting might be the finding the wealthiest town that swung toward Trump.

This post might've gotten lost in the shuffle a bit, but wanted to bring it back up, as to me- this is by far the more interesting question.  Has anyone done a list on these?

Not to discredit the work NOVA Green has done in this thread of course.  Excellent job, NOVA G.

Some initial places to look might be Putnam NY (I think this one was mentioned), also perhaps Calvert MD.  Worth looking into some places in Nassau and Suffolk NY as well.

List started on the Keep Cool-idge thread, and I combined data discovered thus far and posted on this thread, and possibly one or two on the other....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271330.msg5794501#msg5794501

So here are my fundings to data posted over there:

Hailey, Idaho  (Blaine County)

A.) Hailey--- Pop 8.0k--- MHI $75.2k

2012: (67 D- 30 R)        +37 D

2016: (62 D- 29 R)        +33 D    (+4% R Swing)

Although most of this looks like voters defecting from Obama '08 to 3rd Party candidates,

B.) So Park City Montana (Stillwater County)---- MHI $58.8k/Yr- Pop 1.0k

2012: (30 D- 69 R)       +39 R
2016: (19 D- 74 R)       +55 R    (+16% R Swing)....

*** There was some weirdness with the precinct changes, and also MHI of $58.8k is isn't going to be that relatively wealthy even in Montana, but it was a frustrating state to work with on precinct data, as I detailed in a post some months back on one of the two threads above.

C.) Sleepy Hollow, Wyoming (Campbell County)

Sleepy Hollow--- MHI $ 102.4k--- Pop 1.1k


2012: (12.8% D- 86.2% R)       +73% R
2016: (6.3% D-   86.2% R)       +80% R      (+7% R Swing)

D. Waverly, Nebraska - (Lancaster County) MHI $77.7k-  Pop 3.4k

2012: (36 D- 62 R)        +26 R
2016: (25 D- 68 R)        +43 R     (+17% Rep Swing)

E. Yankee Hill, Nebraska- (Lancaster County)- MHI $93.6- Pop 730

2012: (37 D- 62 R)        +25 R
2016: (32 D- 61 R)        +29 R   (+4% R Swing)

* Also looks like a Obama '12 > 3rd Party defection scene going on

F. Richmond, Rhode Island- (Washington County)- MHI $94.0k--- Pop 7.7k

2012: (54 D- 42 R)   +12 D;  2016: (42 D- 50_R)  +8 R    +20% R Swing

G. Exeter, Rhode Island (Washington County)--- MHI $81.6k--- Pop 6.7k

2012: (52 D- 42 R)   +10 D; 2016: (44 D- 51 R)      + 7 R    +17% R Swing

H.) Census Tract # 031300 , Oklahoma (Canadian County)-- MHI $100.7k--- Pop 4.6k

(Precincts 226 & 308)

2012: (15.1 D- 84.9 R)---      +69.8% R
2016: (11.7 D- 82.7 R)---      +71.0% R        (+1.2% R Swing)

So what else can people find out there?

Not sure AN63093 what your bandwidth is to research or if you are throwing it out to crowd-source with from fellow posters, but since thus far I haven't yet moved out to the Eastern Seaboard (And probably won't be able to right now), you're most likely right that we'll find more places out there than expected, considering we had a few examples that I found in Rhode Island, although we had a Native RI and poster from the state that said "but they're not really that rich" compared to various other communities. True statement, but still $90k a year in Washington County RI still stretches quite a bit further than most "Middle Class" household incomes in many other parts of the Country.

There aren't really that many "Uber Rich communities" (You know the Occupy Wall Street 1% type folks....)

It is more a study of what generally most Americans would consider "Upper Middle-Class Voters".... Naturally the problem here is we have tons of wealthier Americans with not a Ton of income, but still own Multi-Million dollar homes, so simply using MHI is limiting, but unfortunately the only real tool we have available without becoming amateur real estate experts that overlap that data with housing values, etc!

[NOVA Green]

Since, been spending a bit of time on Maricopa County, Arizona for various reasons....

Wealthiest "places" within the County.... would like to follow up with precinct results for Upper Income in City precincts within places like Phoenix, etc

1.) Paradise Valley, Arizona:

MHI: $ 125.9k/ Yr
Pop: 13.1k
Race/Ethnicity: 86.0% Anglo, 8.4% Latino, 2.9% Asian

2012: 2,480 Obama (28.0% D), 6,109 Romney (68.9% R)          +40.9% R
2016: 3,341 HRC (38.6% D), 4,886 Trump (56.4% R)               + 17.8 % R   (+23.1% D Swing)

2.) Rio Verde, Arizona (Uninc area NE Maricopa)

MHI: $99.5k/Yr
Pop: 1.9k
Race/Ethnicity: 100% Anglo ()

2012: 631 Obama (22.6% D), 2,140 Romney (76.5% R %)           + 53.9% R
2016: 814 HRC (25.6% D), 2,235 Trump (70.3% R)                      + 44.7% R    (+9.2% D Swing))

3.) Queen Creek (Maricopa Co Only)

MHI: $ 83.7k/Yr
Pop: 27.1k
Race/Ethnicity: 75.7% Anglo, 27.6% Latino, 3.0% African-American,

2012: 2,189 Obama (27.4% D), 5,663 Trump (70.9% R)         + 43.5% R
2016: 4,379 HRC (25.9% D), 11,179 Trump (66.0% R)           +40.1% R     (+3.4% D Swing)

So this fast growing Exurb of Phoenix apparently did not swing Democratic between '12 and '16 in any significant manner....

Will follow up later from elsewhere in Maricopa County once I can finalize the '12 Precinct numbers to compare and contrast against '16 numbers and the roll against Census Data...

So we have Maricopa County with a population of 3.7 Million that has been shifting dramatically as perhaps one of the most dynamic population growth areas in the US over the past decade or so....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

I want to thank you for having the privilege of living in the great Volunteer State, where your SoS office actually posts precinct level returns for the entire state on their official website---- totally awesome, and I wish more states would learn from that leadership and ease of availability to this data.

County level precinct maps are a bit more hit and miss, since there is county-to-county variance in detailed maps, but for better or worse, larger concentrations of wealthy Americans are a bit more likely to be clustered in Metro areas and Shelby, Davidson, & Williamson Counties all have maps available on their respective websites....

So I pulled about some additional numbers for Tennessee to see what wealthy voters did in 2012 and 2016....

So to go back to Metro Nashville----

#1 Wealthiest-  Belle Meade (Davidson County- MHI $202.1k/Yr-- Pop 3.0k)

(98.3% White, 0.8% Latino)

2012: (22.0% D- 77.1% R)       +55.1% R
2016: (35.5% D- 58.0% R)       +22.5% R       (+33% Dem Swing)

#2 Wealthiest- Forest Hills (Davidson County- MHI $ 174.5k/Yr-  Pop 4.9k)

(93.6% White, 1.7% Latino, 1.4% Asian-American)

2012: (32.0% D- 67.0% R)     +35.0% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.2% R)     +8.1% R           (+27% Dem Swing)

#3 Brentwood---- Covered Above in my preceding post

#4 Shackle Island (Sumner County)---- Not able to obtain bcs of precinct maps

#5 Oak Hill--- ( Davidson County---- MHI $110.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.6k)

(96.2% White, 1.7% Asian, 1.5% African-American)

2012: (34.7% D- 64.0% R)        +29.3% R
2016: (43.4% D- 50.7% R)        +7.3%  R       (+22% Dem Swing)

Wow--- so we have two of the five wealthiest places in Metro Nashville where Trump barely cleared 50% of the vote!!!!

So, here's a bonus number I pulled for Metro Memphis:

#1 Wealthiest- Germantown- (Shelby County- MHI $ 109.7k/Yr- Pop 39.1k)

(83.8% White, 6.7% Asian, 5.1% African-American, 3.6% Latino)

2012: (21.5% D- 77.5 % R)          +56.0% R
2016: (29.8% D- 69.2% R)           +39.4 % R      (+17% Dem Swing)

Also, a total aside, but anyone from Tennessee or our resident experts on Southern politics have an explanation as to why wealthy White voters in Nashville appear to be more receptive to Democratic Presidential candidates than those in Memphis?

I would also look at Franklin in Williamson County, which is bigger, but still very wealthy as well.  But, my guess on Nashville vs. Memphis is two-fold.  First, the music industry is obviously huge in Nashville, and, in small population places like Belle Meade and Forest Hills (what about Green Hills?), the music industry could have contributed to the large swing in Nashville (but would be less of a factor in rich areas of Williamson County, given the larger population).

Second, West Tennessee and Middle Tennessee are very different (and both are wholly different from East Tennessee).  People who think of Tennessee as an Appalachian state are really only thinking of East Tennessee (which includes Knoxville), which is actually ancestrally Republican and almost uniformly white.  Middle Tennessee is really its own entity, with whites being slightly more Republican than in Kentucky, but less than in Alabama and Mississippi (though it has some in common with South-Central Kentucky and North Alabama).  West Tennessee, on the other hand, is very much part of the Deep South and more resembles Mississippi than East Tennessee, politically, culturally, and geographically.  It is also majority-black or very close to it (Obama actually won West Tennessee in 2012, but I don't think Hillary quite carried it in 2016).  Apart from a few liberal whites (and actually a semi-significant Jewish population) in downtown Memphis, West Tennessee's white voters are much more like Mississippi's.  In fact, if West Tennessee whites voted like East Tennessee whites (East TN is probably 70% Republican, but 90%+ white), West Tennessee would be overwhelmingly Democratic because of Memphis.  In fact, in 2012, simply adding Memphis (the TN-9 section) to Mississippi would have made Mississippi a virtual tie.

Fun Fact: The precinct of the downtown precinct where Nashville's famous Lower Broadway is actually voted overwhelmingly for Trump.

I just found some interesting data that shows a pretty stark divide between Brentwood and Belle Meade, even though they are usually thought of as very politically similar (i.e. ultra-rich and conservative).

2014 Amendment One (which said that abortion is never protected by the TN Constitution "including... when the pregnancy results from rape or incest or when abortion is necessary to save the life of the mother"):

Belle Meade (Davidson County precinct 23-4):
No: 65.4%
Yes: 34.6%

Brentwood (Williamson County precincts 6- 1-3, 7- 1-3):
Yes: 53.5%
No: 46.5%

I would include Franklin too, but its borders are harder to define, but it certainly seems like it went for Yes fairly convincingly, since it includes most of the rest of Williamson County, which went for Yes by more than Brentwood did.  However, the one No precinct in all of Williamson County was in Franklin.

Compare that to Amendment 3 (which made income tax unconstitutional in Tennessee):

Belle Meade:
Yes: 67.4%
No: 32.6%

Brentwood:
Yes: 76.2%
No: 23.8%


And, to show that this simply doesn't reflect that there are that many more Democrats in Belle Meade:

2016 President (2-party vote):

Belle Meade:
Trump: 62.0%
Clinton: 38.0%
(Johnson votes were 6.5% of Trump+Clinton total)

Brentwood:
Trump: 66.4%
Clinton: 33.6%
(Johnson votes were 4.3% of Trump+Clinton total)

So, while Brentwood is slightly more conservative overall than Belle Meade, it is significantly more socially conservative, with a majority even being willing to pass a constitutional amendment that will potentially ban abortion with no exceptions in Tennessee if Roe is overturned.  This likely also explains why Belle Meade trended far more away from Trump than Brentwood did in 2016, considering that it has somewhat of a socially liberal/moderate streak.

That's quite an interesting take on what so far appears to be a significant swing towards the Democratic Nominee Nationally in '16 among relatively wealthy voters, since thus far we haven't necessarily seen a major difference in swings between *regions* of the country.

I wonder to what extent the pattern that you have observed in wealthier Metro precincts in a "Bible Belt" state like Tennessee might also apply to places all the way from Texas/Oklahoma up to North Carolina???

So are some of the variances in swings among "relatively wealthy voters" (High MHI cities and precincts) in much of the South ("Bible Belt") however we choose to define it, potentially explained as a result of areas where there are higher concentrations of Evangelical Christians vs more the "Country Club" Republican types....

Sounds like a Masters Degree research project to me .... but still more seriously I think you are the first to have identified a potential variance in upper-income Southern swings with a potential correlation with a more Evangelical (Southern Baptist?) bent than among other traditionally overwhelmingly Republican  wealthy demographics in Metro areas of the Southlands in the '16 General Election....

I think we need some more posters from the Southlands on here to examine this in more detail....

I could pull some Texas numbers on various elections for many counties, but unfortunately, they make it damn difficult for the Citizens to actually vote on Statewide Citizens Initiatives, so I don't believe it's possibly to pull numbers from abortion and taxation related initiatives, the same way that I used to be ably to easily do for Oregon....

Thanks Extreme Republican!    Looking forward to you picking up that shovel and digging some more, because it looks like you might be on to something that could well explain variances in '16 swings among this Demographic in parts of the Midwest as well.

I know this is really old, but, in light of 2018 (and my being stunned at Bredesen crossing 70% in Davidson County), I went back to look at the 2012-to-2016 swings in Southern Davidson and Williamson Counties in more detail.  In particular, here are five interesting suburban House districts with the 2012, 2016, and 2018 (House) results:

TN-56 (Southern Davidson County, including Belle Meade and other upper-income Republican parts of Davidson County/Nashville):
Romney +23, Clinton +0, 2018 Democrats +2
Total Swing: D+25

TN-61 (Northern Williamson County, centered in Brentwood):
Romney +49, Trump +32, 2018 Republicans +31
Total Swing: D+18

TN-63 (Eastern Williamson County, including East Franklin and Nolensville- and the district I'm moving to in December):
Romney +49, Trump +39, 2018 Republicans +36
Total Swing: D+13

TN-65 (Western Williamson County, including Downtown Franklin and Spring Hill)
Romney +40, Trump +35, 2018 Republicans +36
Total Swing: D+4

The wildcard: TN-49 (Northwestern Rutherford County, including La Vergne and Smyrna):
Romney +19, Trump +20, 2018 Republicans +5
Total Swing: D+14 (R+1 from 2012-2016 only)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, in most of these districts, it appears that there was only minor deviation from the 2016 results this year (for the State House), but that doesn't explain the relative mystery of TN-49.  It's probably the least rich of these districts in the Southern suburbs of Nashville if that counts for anything, but there are still wealthy pockets there for sure.  Plus, the incumbent ran in 2018, and you would expect open seats like TN-56 and TN-61 to show the stronger swings (especially since they showed the strongest 2012-2016 swings in the first place), but they barely budged.

I think it makes sense that the Davidson County district has had the strongest anti-Trump swing.  That district is pretty moderate on social issues (and probably even more liberal on the types of cultural issues Trump brings up, like immigration) and is probably also the district that is changing the fastest in terms of the types of people living there, as traditionally Republican neighborhoods like Green Hills start to become the slightest bit trendy.  This district voted No on Amendment 1 in 2014 for sure (as every Davidson precinct did)- and a fair amount of the No voters may have even been in the "pro-life, but..." category but found the language to uncompromising to vote for.  The Republican-No on 1 voters there are probably the types of people who are now beginning to vote Democrat.

But, my other mystery is what caused the significant difference in the size of Democratic swings within Williamson County.  Adjusted for cost of living, Williamson County is the richest county in the United States (and is the richest in the South even without that adjustment).  While there are a couple less populated areas of the county, there isn't really anywhere in the county that isn't well off economically.  The difference in swings between Brentwood and Franklin is something that has perked my attention and is something I want to look at more.  I have always viewed Brentwood and Franklin as very similar to each other, but there are some differences.  Franklin (Downtown Franklin) has the feel of an old Southern town with a lot of history if you know where to look, while Brentwood is mostly a sea of mansions with a "downtown" that includes a few shopping centers but not a city feel.  Cool Springs, the area between them (mostly technically within the Franklin city limits, but with some spillover into Brentwood), is the area I thought would trend the most due to apartment complexes popping up everywhere in the area, but everything I have seen shows that its precincts are trending right at the county average.  I will not talk about that for the rest of this analysis, as Cool Springs is in Central Williamson County and actually finds a way to spill into all three congressional districts in the county).

But, my question remains about TN-65 (which saw virtually no trend) versus TN-61 (that saw a significant trend).  Both are wealthy and are entirely in Williamson County.  TN-65 does include the rural areas of the county, but areas like Fairview pale in terms of population to the major towns of Brentwood and Franklin.  TN-63 includes areas of both Brentwood and Franklin, as well as the also-wealthy town of Nolensville, and saw a swing in the middle of the other two.  I will have to go back and run the Amendment 1 numbers by HD in Williamson County and see if I notice a significant difference like I did when looking at Davidson County.  I think I have raised a couple questions, but, for me, the difference in swings in the Southern Nashville suburbs remains an open question- and we barely even hit on why TN-49 didn't swing until 2018 when all the others did their swinging from 2012-2016 and stayed put in 2018.