The Kalwejt Foundation for the Promotion of Atlas Hilarity

[Technocracy Timmy]

Wowsers!

I remember when Rep. Ed Jones (D-TN) said that a female committee member's staff salary was "ridiculous for a woman".  That was back in the 1970s or 1980s, however.

Grover Cleveland also said women shouldn't have the right to vote. Democrats evolved.

Republicans don't believe in evolution.

[Politician]

You've all got it wrong. This is actually a poll of the question "how many pounds do you think U.S. Senator Jon Tester gained over the past month?"

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303627.msg6461629#msg6461629

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are they polling any house erections tonight?!

Well, although much of Atlas would like to see that, I personally wouldn't.

[NOVA Green]

I wasn't quite sure where to post it because of the style of presentation (Atlas Hilarity or Epic Great Posts), since Cruz Will Win posted an awesome effort post, incorporating a wide variety of data, but simultaneously in a "straight-man" joke style it's hard to tell as you work your way towards the finale exactly which parts of the OP's work are deliberately an attempt of subversive humor, parody of Atlas Dems and Pubs alike, etc...

Either way, it was a brilliantly crafted post that both addresses the CW on Atlas, discusses the Dem Wave, and also talks about Dem "Pipe Dreams", and so many other items....

It's also extremely funny IMHO, despite so many deep points weaved into the author's narrative.

Just a week or two ago, amidst the height of the Kavanaugh/Ford hearings, chances of Republicans holding the House seemed to be increasing dramatically. The generic ballot had the Dem lead shrinking, down to the point where Republican Gerrymanders could maybe hold the House. Lindsay Graham was hailing himself as a hero to all self-respecting angry white males who like beer. People were talking about the Reps holding the House with the help of the gerrymander wall. That big batch of FOX Senate polls had just come out, including the ND-SEN one with Cramer up 53-41 (Oct 2).

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP has gotten what they want - a partisan psychotic hack on the court - and suddenly ... Republican numbers in the GCB are plummeting, starting to drop even below 40, and Democrats are posting more and more double-digit leads. Here are the 7 most recent polls on the 538 GCB (date on the graph is the date the poll ended), plus the most recent Yougov poll that just came out but they haven't entered in yet at the time I am posting this.



If you look at the trend here, it is pretty horrific for the GOP. The thing to notice is not just that the Dems are going up, but the Reps are going down even more quickly, at a shocking pace. The GOP is literally hemorrhaging support, like a GenX drunk hemorrhaging vomit after a hard night of heavy blackout drinking:



If you extrapolate the trend all the way to election day, it looks like this, with Republicans headed towards support of about 17% if current trends continue:



Don't get me wrong. It probably won't be quite that extreme, and the Republicans should eventually hit some sort of minimum floor of support like a wobbly alcoholic preppy falling flat on his face (maybe around 30% or so, the minimum deplorable amount???).

But regardless of if or when they hit a hardwood floor and regardless of whether they break their nose or not in the process of so doing, the implications could be horrific for the Republicans. You do not win elections - even elections rigged by gerrymandering and a tilted Senate map - with 40% (or less) of the vote. Remember, those Senate polls that seemed to be so favorable for the GOP all came out at the height of the Kavanaugh bump (the FOX news Senate polls all ended on Oct 2, the exact day when the charts above begin).

Because if the numbers hold, the Dems will have a commanding majority in the House - possibly even a veto-proof majority - and many of the close races in the Senate will break in favor of the Dems. Republican oil workers in North Dakota will not be allowed to vote because of an accidental Republican own-goal. There will be a historically low amount of ticket splitting, meaning that Republican losses will come up and down the entire ballot, not just in a few high profile races. The wipeout will be uniform and near absolute, with even Republican dog catcher candidates unable to differentiate themselves from Trump amidst a surge of angry female Democrats turning out at near-Presidential levels and voting straight ticket Dem.

It is also clear, that if this trend holds, even if Democrats do not pick up the Senate this year, they will defeat Trump and pick up the Senate in 2020, and then we'll have a Democratic trifecta. Democrats will pick up Governorships and State Legislatures across the nation, block and overturn Republican gerrymanders, and install gerrymanders of their own to lock in a permanent Democratic majority in the House for the rest of the decade. And as old White males increasingly die off and are replaced in the electorate by Millennials and Gen Z, things only get worse for the GOP.

For these voters, indelible in the Hippocampus is the uproarious laughter and the high fives of Republican Senators as they celebrated having rammed Kavanaugh through without conducting a proper FBI investigation, only a sham investigation in which the FBI was not allowed to follow up leads and forced by the White House to turn away tips and witnesses.



In other words, for these voters, this was a traumatizing experience that will stick in their memories permanently. They will remember it in a month when they go to vote. They will also remember it 2 years from now, and 30 years from now as well. Whereas for the Republicans, they got what they wanted and lack the traumatizing experience solidifying their memories. They will have forgotten all about Kavanaugh by the time of election day. Indeed, the nosedive in the polls shows that this process of forgetting is already well underway as the next news cycle attracts their attention.

All across the country, hordes of angry women are awakening each morning with a new sense of purpose. What was formerly confined within the boundaries of New Hampshire is spreading like an unstoppable contagion across the fruited plain, to the tremendous detriment of the Republican party. Republicans face the prospect of losing the women's vote - a majority of voters - by 30 points as in the CNN poll, spurred on by this profound sense of anger, rage, and anguish. I am not sure the Republicans understand what they have unleashed.

These voters are also worried that with Ginsburg surely retiring or god forbid passing (she’s up there in age) then you’re looking at 6-3 conservative majority - not just that but with at least 2 of those judges highly partisan. Whereas for Conservatives, they do not particularly care about Ginsburg, because they already have their majority. And Republican base voters are complacent, fooled by Trump's claims that Republicans are sure to hold the house, so they don't think they need to even bother voting.

I’ve always advocated for a split court. Four Conservatives. Four Liberals and 1 Centrist. Which is what we HAD until - well, until booze bag got confirmed.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=302399.msg6461629#msg6461629

[IceSpear]

Every poll should be believed and heard. Rossi and tester are both up by double digits

[IceSpear]

I have this, NJ-Sen and MN-Special on my list of "sleeper races."

Me too.  They all put me to sleep.

[gottsu]

I live in a part of my locality that's called (semi-oficially, it appears on survey maps) Manhattan. We have "Upper" and "Lower" Manhattan just like the real and I live in a "Upper" part.

[IceSpear]

Context: "What can the NY GOP do to get back to political relevance?"

Move to WV.  I'm gonna guess they choose to stay in NY and be irrelevant.

[Politician]

Using my superpowers of reading comprehension, I have deduced that the atlas users who have posted in this thread have an issue with the forecast because it seems too friendly towards dems in the house, and too friendly to the GOP in the senate.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

How is this newsworthy? Since Charlottesville all these stupid rallies have been duds. They’re destined to be humiliated.

That's because at rallies these days when the racists send their people, they haven't been sending their best. They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. But some, I assume, are good people.

[Politician]

Bayh-Bayh, Bredi. Pawlenty of better options were open, but you had to go for senate. You've been Kerrey'd off into retirement for good now I reckon.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Get up, vote three times with three ids.  Drive a bus filled with with Illegal Aliens to (insert your state here) and have them vote.  Come home and post absurd claims about illegal voting on the internet.

[ON Progressive]

AJC has a new poll out exclusively of women tomorrow.

I have an idea. They can partner with the AARP and get a solid majority of the electorate.

More likely they would do the opposite, and poll only female Seniors. Just what we need, a poll of only female Seniors!

They should combine forces with MoScout and poll only one state senate district.

Brilliant. A Latino Decisions-AARP-AJC poll of only Latino female Seniors in 1 Senate district. Make it a Senate district somewhere in rural Georgia where there is a really low Latino population, and maybe it will be possible for it to be a poll of only a single voter.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %   

[IceSpear]

If you're at all on the fence about contributing more resources to mental health in America, go see Atlas Forum.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Context needed:

Gilligan's Island is responsible for 9/11.

[BBD]

If you're at all on the fence about contributing more resources to mental health in America, go see Atlas Forum.

That should be in the simple truths thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sanchez should only interact with honest white drug dealers going forward.

[Grassroots]

I'll start it off with this memorable gem:

FFs bcuz all that fxcking ca$$$h

Continue.

[HillGoose]

Personally this is my favorite thing I've ever posted on this site.

some1 on the internet told me i need 2 have a masters degree in bus drivering but that sounds hard :< what if i just change my full name to Doctor Bus Driver? Then they think I have a doctorate in Bus Driving but I really don't

[morgankingsley]

I'm already at the lmfao stage

[TDAS04]

I think W has the best chance to live to that age. Clinton looks sickly and Obama is a smoker. Trump will probably be dead within the next 10 years given his obesity and apparent high stress.

Trump will live to 100, obesity doesn't matter anymore.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I stopped eating meat six years ago for this reason, and I've been cutting back on my dairy for the last several months. It's really not that hard.

This is exactly why your username is what it is.

The degradation of the human male continues on.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Draco23 YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 1,997

Hot, Bad & Unpopular Takes « Reply #1438 on: September 2, 1993, 07:45:48 pm » You must be logged in to read this quote. Uneducated Death Eaters should be ashamed of themselves. I'd say they should be bred out of existence, but if we are being honest, no one will ever want to breed with them anyway, so it'll already happen.

My father will hear about this.
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