The Kalwejt Foundation for the Promotion of Atlas Hilarity

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

"OP is a f****t" = protected speech. God bless the Constitution, this is exactly what the Founding Fathers intended.

[wesmoorenerd]

CA-45: Global Strategy Group (D), July 26-31, 500 likely voters (live caller poll)

Mimi Walters (R, inc) 45%
Katie Porter 44%

Trump's approval is horrendous here too:

39% Approve
58% Disapprove

Yet Walters continues to vote as if she represents AL-01.

The Republican Party is a big tent. You have the conservatives like Walters who vote with Trump 99% of the time, and the moderates like Comstock that who vote with Trump a mere 98% of the time.

[Atlas Force]

To the left drug dealers are “undocumented pharmacists”.

I'd much prefer more shirtless pics over this type of riveting commentary.

[morgieb]

Perhaps too easy, but still it's a great effort all round:

Okay guys, here are my ratings and #analysis. I worked really hard on these, so I hope you all like them.

AZ - Safe D, Queen of Arizona Kyrsten Sinema would defeat God himself in an election here.
CA - Lean Feinstein, De Leon will win 47 year old inner city Los Angeles gay Latino businessmen, but will it be enough?
CT - Lean D, Malloy will drag down Murphy.
DE- Lean R, a Gravis poll shows Carper is in deep trouble.
FL - Safe D. Nelson was an astronaut.
HI - Toss Up. Hirono has cancer, also Republicans just improved on the Reuters generic ballot.
IN - Safe D. One word: Trafalgar. Also, Braun is a much worse candidate than Mourdock.
ME - Toss Up. Maine swung to Trump.
MD - Lean D. imo chelsea manning might run as an independent and hurt cardin imo.
MA - Lean R. Warren is an underperformer and Charlie Baker coattails will ensure the end of her political career.
MI - Likely R. James will win 90% of the black vote because he's black. Stabenow will need to run up the score with racist whites to compensate.
MN - Toss Up. #SmithMoreVulnerableThanTester. Also, MN almost voted Trump.
MS - Lean D. MS is very sexist (see 2016) and will therefore vote for Espy.
MO - Likely D. Only not safe D because Hawley works out at the gym and this might sway some female voters imo.
MT - Super Safe D. Every single citizen of the state will vote for Jon Tester, as agreed upon by the Montana Constitution and by every citizen who resides there, otherwise they face exile. also rosendale weak candidate imo.
NE - Safe R. Fischer will win by 50 points because a line on a Politico article told me she would.
NV - Super Safe R. Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller was unstoppable, but imo weak candidate jacky rosen only sealed the dems fate here imo.
NJ - Safe R. Menendez is corrupt and New Jersey HATES corruption.
NM - Likely R. Because of unbeatable titan Gary Johnson. Only keeping it at likely R rather than safe R because we don't know if Mick Rich will drop out yet.
NY - Lean D. NYC will get vengeance for Al Franken by voting Republican, but she can balance them out with Upstate Racists. imo she should be happy she's not facing strong candidate wendy long or else this would be at least lean r imo.
ND - Likely D. Retail politics and tariffs.
OH - Safe D. #populists
PA - Lean R. Barletta is very Trumpish and don't forget Trump won PA.
RI - Toss Up. Rhode Island swung R in 2016.
TN - Safe D. Unbeatable Titan Phil Bredesen won every county in 2006 and will do so again.
TX - Safe D. Texas swung to Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz was a #NeverTrumper which will hurt him with the base. O'Rourke's great campaign and good looks will cause him to dominate the 39 year old yoga practicing soap opera watching suburban demographic.
UT - Toss Up. Romney is an etch a sketch and also said 47%, plus this state swung hard D in 2016. imo if hatch was the nominee this would be safe d imo.
VT - Lean R. Rs hard good primary turnout, and Scott's coattails will drag down the old socialist Bernie for good.
VA - Toss Up. VIRGINIA IS STILL A SWING STATE! BARBARA COMSTOCK WOULD'VE MADE THIS RACE SAFE R IN A CLINTOOOOONNNN MIDTERRRRRMMMMMM.
WA - Lean D. This state is very white, so Cantwell needs to watch her back.
WV - Safe D. See Ohio.
WI - Safe D. Wisconsin is back to titanium D after a brief flirtation with Trumpism. Evers coattails will propel Baldwin to victory.
WY - Lean D. This might seem hackish, but do you guys really think the blue wave won't hit Wyoming? Give me a break!

Any thoughts?

[IceSpear]

Stop trying to make "#walkaway" happen people, please.

The #walkaway phenomenon is a real thing. Keep in mind that it's more of a slow but steady trickle over a span of many years, not a sudden jump since 2016. I started losing faith in the Democratic Party around 2012, but not as much for the American Left. Certain shifts in the American Left that started in 2014 was what killed it all, though I definitely wasn't going to embrace the Republicans at that time either, but I did consider myself libertarian-ish. Trump in 2016 and the left's behavior since then was what really put the nail in the coffin, but I'm not quite ready to be a full fledged Republican unless they stop being the party of Reagan (the mythologized version), George W. Bush, Rick Santorum, etc.

If you take a look at the #walkaway facebook group, you'll see varying stories from all sorts of people. Those people aren't necessarily going to vote for the Republicans on November 6, but they won't give the Democrats votes either. Arguably, you won't need them if turnout for the Democrats remains high and turnout for the Republicans has been mediocre as it has been for these past few special elections. That doesn't mean that people aren't abandoning the Democratic Party and the left, it just means that a greater portion of the people who vote in these elections are energized progressives and Democrats, while an even larger number of people who *might* have voted for the Republican stayed home for varying reasons. Sometimes the reason is as sad as simply not knowing that there was an election that day.

Anyway, I don't see what's so bad about critiquing one's parents and highlighting their conduct as indicative of the country's current polarized and vicious nature,  if they went so out of their way to slight your political career.

Welcome to Atlas, "NYC Millennial Minority," and thank you for the encouragement to visit the totally organic and representative #Walkaway Facebook group. I am interested in why you are #walkingaway from the Democrats. Can you tell me more about your sincere change of heart? Thank you again for creating an account and joining the group to tell us more about this #walkaway movement, which is totally not trending and promoted by Russian bots on Twitter. I am interested in your representative opinions as a millennial minority living in Major Metropolitan Area in United States.

[Xing]

Classic OC:

Hogan has the female vote, black women, as opposed to black males, like the Donna Edwards type love Hogan.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299057

[IceSpear]

🙄 Man, what a junk thread with an incredibly unfunny, overdone, garbage "meme". How about instead of continuing to derail this thread in an attempt to steer the discussion away from the original question like the previous posters constantly do with their tedious, unfunny shtick we go back to engaging in a fruitful, intellectually stimulating, thought-provoking debate with hard-hitting arguments and analysis to discuss how badly Rosen will underperform among smoking 37-year old hair stylists in the Reno area who voted Obama/Heller in 2012 but are repulsed by her offensively uninspiring haircut and lack of speaking skills as well as affluent educated 42 7/12-year old Latino CEOs in the exurbs of Las Vegas who are disgusted by Rosen's "I built a business" claim, okay? I’ll start with a personal anecdote: My neighbor's wife's uncle's fiancee's younger brother's ex-girlfriend is from Gerlach–Empire (Washoe County, NV) and she told me that she voted for strong candidate Shelley Berkley in 2012 to send a message to the House Ethics Committee because she felt like the investigation was unjustified and overkill. She also voted for Harry Reid in 1998 for the same reason, and we all know how close that race was, so don’t tell me that one vote doesn’t matter. More to the point, however, you don’t need to be an expert to notice the pattern here. Can Rosen inspire the same turnout and enthusiasm among this crucial voter group? I highly doubt it, which is one of the billion reasons why I think Bredesen and Espy have a much better chance of winning than her.

[IceSpear]

Wow. Check out Mexico Joe's latest ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=29&v=VmD8fYF4Rzg

It's clear he's down bigly to Mike Braun if he's putting up overtly pro-Trump ads.

Cringe, Manchin has done something similar too, oh well, they have free pass cards to do anything to win, so do what's necessary ma bois.

What a poorly done ad. The part in the middle where Donnelly flimsily talks into the camera from driving the RV is just LOL

You can tell that was filmed in Indiana too because he kept hitting potholes every couple of seconds

[Atlas Force]

Write In: Jim Webb or Marco Rubio

A bore who looks like a Serial Killer and someone who repeats himself like a robot

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Lean Right.

If this is a smear aimed at my alcohol intake, I refuse to accept it.

[Mike Thick]

Dems are the party of "HOLLYWOOD" who push for gun control, campaign financing at the same time they push for sex violence and drugs on television.  That's what regulations are.

[Donerail]

my dude is PRESSED b/c some lefties on twitter said "john mccain was not very good."

[IceSpear]

Well the party of Roy Moore certainly isn’t going to go out of its way to advocate for age restrictions

[Fuzzy Bear]

More importantly is how the dinosaur media is covering this remark.  Romney was torn apart while Clinton gets a pass from places like PMSNBC.  Poor guy couldn't give his dog a bath without the media hassling him.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Context:

well, there ya go, the infallible word of the God right there.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Seriously, is there anything that he says isn't rigged against him?

Unemployment. It was 42% under "O" and is now below 4%. Jobs, jobs, jobs!

[wesmoorenerd]

I like Evers and I hope he wins. But let's be real - he looks like a huge dork. I'm deducting 4 points from Evers as a "dork penalty" on every Wisconsin gubernatorial poll from here on out. 

[IceSpear]

So much bigotry from the "tolerant left" on this thread. How dare you all suggest that white "hardworking" Trump supporters are anything other than stable geniuses who vote very rationally! This, not gerrymandering, spending by the Koch Brothers/RNC, partisan loyalty/stubbornness, tactical mistakes by actual members of the DNC, lack of education (it's better not to go to college liberal brainwash camp), dog whistles, nor bias in media coverage, is why Democrats lose elections!!!! My mind model tells me that 45% of West Virginians would've voted for Hillary if Democrats on the internet had only been nicer, and that this thread just cost the Democrats 10% in the Rust Belt!

[IceSpear]

The problem is that Ben Cardin is on the ballot and not Chris Van Hollen.  Cardin is much more in line with people that vote for Hogan than Chris Van Hollen is, who galvanize the O'Malley blacks. That's why it's a Lean R race.

[wesmoorenerd]

In honor of the "if Bill Nelson wins reelection" thread, let's consider the opposite...

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Florida), turning 76 in September, is facing a tough reelection, potentially the toughest reelection fight of his career against wealthy Gov. Rick Scott (R-Florida) in what is to be the 2018 marquee Senate election. If Nelson fails to win reelection in November 2018, who should challenge Rick Scott in 2024?

In this case, it will be apparent that Obama is the only Democrat who can ever manage to win an election in Florida, because he does not rely on the Florida Democratic Party. The solution is obvious. Obama retires to Florida, then runs for Senate, but refuses to ever join the failed Florida Democratic Party. Instead, Obama will start his own organization, Organizing Florida Again (OFA) to take its place.

I think it should be called Barack Organizing Florida Again, or BOFA for short.

I hope the BOFA strategy can beat these nuts like DeSantis and Scott

[TDAS04]

To people of color, the Southern Strategy that the Goldwater conservatives, like Dole, Reagan, Nixon and Goldwater is covert racism, not overt racism. And it was the Hoover administration closeness to the Goldwater wing of the GOP and his ties to outside groups like China and Russia, which didn't properly survelliance the political heavyweights, that caused their untimely deaths.

[IceSpear]

Desantis could shoot a kid in a wheel chair and Atlas would think it wouldn't hurt him.

That’s not true at all. It depends entirely on if the kid in the wheelchair is black or white.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Lean D, since Morrisey has room for growth. That said, it's looking like he's going to squander it.

The only growth Fat Pat will experience is around his waistline.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

To people of color, the Southern Strategy that the Goldwater conservatives, like Dole, Reagan, Nixon and Goldwater is covert racism, not overt racism. And it was the Hoover administration closeness to the Goldwater wing of the GOP and his ties to outside groups like China and Russia, which didn't properly survelliance the political heavyweights, that caused their untimely deaths.

This post gave me cancer but, damn, it was worth it!