Italy 1994!
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:31:31 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Italy 1994!
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Italy 1994!  (Read 5821 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 23, 2017, 04:26:12 PM »
« edited: February 23, 2017, 04:27:56 PM by Sibboleth »

Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2017, 03:29:35 AM »

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Amazing how northern the PdL vote was that year. The old Lega was still a force to be reckoned and Berlusconi had his own personal appeal in Lombardy. By contrast a lot of the South seemed #ReadyForCommies around that time.

Also LOL Lazio.
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2017, 05:40:18 AM »

Great map!

Lazio in general is very right-wing, except for Rome. And even in Rome, the further you go from the city center, the less leftist it is.
As it is, M5S has made great gains there.


I didn't expect the center-left to do so well in Calabria and Basilicata, nor did I know that there were those strongholds in Sicily (where in 2001 Berlusconi won all 61 constituencies).
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2017, 09:46:06 AM »

Don't be fooled by the red in the South. Much of it can be explained by centrist Pact for Italy strength or by Forza Italia and National Alliance running separately in some ridings.

For comparison: In Italy as a whole the center-left Progressives got 32.8% of the FPTP vote, resulting in only 164 out of 475 FPTP seats.

In Abruzzo the Progressives got 33.6% of the FPTP, which is only slightly above average. But this resulted in 10 out of 11 FPTP seats, because National Alliance (24.1%) and Forza Italia (22.5%) ran separately and the Pact for Italy scored 17.6%, above its national average of 15.6%.

Campania 2 was even more extreme, with the Progressives at only 26.7%, six points below the national average. But they got 12 seats out of 22, because National Alliance (21.7%) and Forza Italia (19.8%) ran separately and the Pact for Italy scored 19.7%, above its national average.

In Calabria Forza Italia and National Alliance ran together, scoring 33.8%. But what allowed the Progressives to win 10 out of 17 seats with just 34.6% of the vote was the Pact for Italy performance (20.1%).

I don't deny that the place where the center-left lost the election was the North and that its results in the South were not that bad. But the map (I love that map nonetheless!) makes the center-left seem stronger in the South than it really was.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2017, 10:53:37 AM »

Yes, Palandio is correct. All will become clearer when the other maps are done...
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2017, 12:00:52 PM »

I never realised Milan was so conservative. Didn't they have a commie mayor until last year?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2017, 12:32:38 PM »

I never realised Milan was so conservative.

It isn't. But it voted massively massively Berlusconi in 1994 (his omnipresence in the city was a huge factor).
Logged
bore
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,275
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2017, 03:56:52 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2017, 04:47:54 PM by bore »

How did my grandfather's comune (Montefalcione, in Campania 2, which is mentioned above) vote, I hear you ask? Well, the answer is, as usual, overwhelmingly for moderate heroism (I say as usual because in 2013, for example, it gave 50% of the vote to Mario Monti)



(For anyone interested who doesn't already know in this level of detail, it is worth saying that, shockingly, italy has a world class election results website, available here: http://elezionistorico.interno.it/ )
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2017, 04:10:40 PM »

Lazio in general is very right-wing, except for Rome. And even in Rome, the further you go from the city center, the less leftist it is.

Uh, no. The Roma province as a whole is solidly left-wing, and it's large enough to balance out the other 4 provinces and turn Lazio into a battleground region. In 2013 the left coalition beat the right by 2 points. 1994 was clearly exceptional.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2017, 04:11:55 PM »

Was the South Tyrolian SVP allied with Berlusconi back in the 90s ?

Can't remember anymore ...
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2017, 05:56:42 PM »

I think that in 1994 the SVP was still somehow allied with what had remained from the old Democrazia Cristiana, that is the Italian People's Party, which was part of the Pact for Italy alliance. At least the Pact didn't field candidates in the province of Bolzano/Bozen. The chamber constituency of Bolzano/Bozen was contested by four major candidates (Progressives, SVP, Forza+Lega, National Alliance) which allowed the neo-fascist to prevail with 32.1% of the vote. (Recall that Berlusconi's Forza Italia was allied to the National Alliance only in the Center-South, where the Lega Nord didn't contest. In the North Forza was allied with the Lega. National Alliance and Lega Nord at that time just wouldn't run together.)

From 1995 on the majority of the Italian People's Party oriented itself towards the center-left and so did the SVP.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2017, 08:16:28 PM »

Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2017, 08:27:44 PM »

Err, did you forget Apulia?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2017, 05:12:52 AM »


No. But Forza Italia did.
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2017, 04:10:30 AM »

Lazio in general is very right-wing, except for Rome. And even in Rome, the further you go from the city center, the less leftist it is.

Uh, no. The Roma province as a whole is solidly left-wing, and it's large enough to balance out the other 4 provinces and turn Lazio into a battleground region. In 2013 the left coalition beat the right by 2 points. 1994 was clearly exceptional.
I live in Rome, so trust me Cheesy
The province is definitely more left-wing than the rest of Lazio (doesn't take a lot, really), but since 2013 it's turning more and more pro-M5S.
They have mayors in Pomezia and Civitavecchia, for instance, and in the Constitutional Referendum the results were as ugly (for the Yes) as in the South.
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2017, 06:04:30 AM »

Looking at the 1994, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2008 and 2013 elections gives the following picture for Lazio as a whole:

1994 [Counting PdL, PdBG, AN and FI as Center-right]: Center-right 2 points above their national average, but Center-left 5 points above their national average. What makes Lazio look so right-wing is that there was only PdBG running instead of PdL vs. AN vote splitting like in the North.

1998 [Counting Olive Tree and Progressives as Center-left]: Center-right 7 points above national average, center-left 3 points above. But you have to take into account that the Lega Nord (which is close to non-existent in Lazio) ran separately and got 11% which dragged down the national center-right result considerably, but not the Lazio center-right result.

2001: Both coalitions outperforming by ca. 2 points.

2006: Same close race in Lazio (as a whole) as in the national average.

2013: Center-right underperforming a point, center-left almost exactly on the national average.


Summary: Lazio as a whole has voted very close to the national average during the Second Republic.

What gives Lazio a certain right-wing bent is that it has been a stronghold of post- and neo-fascist forces.

The M5S surge on the other hand has been largely transversal through the political spetrum, taking from both the center-left and the center-right. I hope that this doesn't sound too much like the typical Grillini talking points ("not left, not right"), because it isn't meant to. What I want to say is that when you say Grillo is turning Lazio less left-wing, you should also say he is turning it less right-wing. But that's both quite questionable assertions.

And when it comes to the referendum: Yes, it's true that Yes was strongest in Toscana and Emilia-Romagna. But the No supporters were an unholy left-right-fringe alliance. It was not left vs. right. (That being said the referendum seemed to me like a stupid political stunt and left me rather stumped.)
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2017, 01:47:56 PM »

It seems like I wasn't clear in my previous post so I'll rephrase it.

If you don't consider Rome, Lazio leans center-right, and in particular, fascists or post-fascists have always had very positive results (MSI, AN, FdI, La Destra), especially in the Latina province.

The Rome province is, by far, the most left-wing of the region. Nonetheless, in more recent years, the M5S have managed to make inroads which they haven't really managed to replicate in the rest of the region.

Lastly, if you look at the municipality of Rome, what you see historically (at least, the last 25 years) is that the center-left is very strong in the city center, while the farther you go from it, the more right-wing it leans.
A few years ago the GRA (Grande Raccordo Anulare; the highway which goes around parts of Rome) was considered to be the "limit", as outside of it the center-right would comfortably win. Now the M5S has managed to make great gains in that area, while also making gains in the city center.
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2017, 03:45:24 PM »

It seems like I wasn't clear in my previous post so I'll rephrase it.

If you don't consider Rome, Lazio leans center-right, and in particular, fascists or post-fascists have always had very positive results (MSI, AN, FdI, La Destra), especially in the Latina province.

The Rome province is, by far, the most left-wing of the region. Nonetheless, in more recent years, the M5S have managed to make inroads which they haven't really managed to replicate in the rest of the region.

I fully agree.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

To me it seems that historically speaking the absolute center-left strongholds are not in the city center itself, but in the Eastern semi-center (S. Lorenzo, Pigneto), eastern semi-periphery and parts of the south-western semi-center (Testaccio, Portuense), which are all historically quite working-class. The northern semi-center seems like it has always been quite bourgeois and right-wing. I'm also wondering how much the social composition in different parts of Rome has changed in the recent two decades. I would immagine gentrification processes in some of the semi-center working-class quarters on the one hand. And on the other hand urbanification processes in the formerly semi-rural periphery, leading to an influx of (on average) rather poor people who couldn't afford to live closer to the center. When looking at some of the housing development near the Eastern part of the GRA, a lot of it seems quite recent to me (and also quite criminal from an urbanistic point of view). And that seem to be the areas where M5S is strongest.
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2017, 04:13:23 PM »

To me it seems that historically speaking the absolute center-left strongholds are not in the city center itself, but in the Eastern semi-center (S. Lorenzo, Pigneto), eastern semi-periphery and parts of the south-western semi-center (Testaccio, Portuense), which are all historically quite working-class. The northern semi-center seems like it has always been quite bourgeois and right-wing. I'm also wondering how much the social composition in different parts of Rome has changed in the recent two decades. I would immagine gentrification processes in some of the semi-center working-class quarters on the one hand.
Well, the definition of city center has somehow changed over time, so that places such as Testaccio would be considered as central. Indeed, Testaccio, Portuense, Monteverde, Trastevere, Garbatella and San Paolo are the historical strongholds, but more generally the center-left has always done well within the GRA, except for the suburbs in northern Rome, which are either very bourgeois (Parioli, for instance) or...very fascists.
If you look at the most recent elections, though, things have changed quite dramatically, with PD (and, at the referendum, the Yes) having a majority in either the very center (Coliseum and the like) or in the more bourgeois areas, and losing badly in Testaccio, Garbatella, Pigneto, San Lorenzo.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
This is absolutely true, and indeed Rome has been an urbanistic disaster for the last 50 to 60 years. The more peripheric areas are mostly the result of illegal settlements which were then recognized officially by the municipality ex-post, contributing to the lack of services and transportation which then isolates those areas even further, driving them towards the right and, in more recent times, the M5S.
The rise in housing prices has driven people out of the center, but rather than being necessarily poor people, it's mostly young families with kids who inhabitate the peripheric areas around the GRA. After all, gentrification has hit Pigneto hard (and it's now a hipster paradise), but not many other areas of Rome.
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2017, 05:28:31 PM »

Thank you, very interesting! Seems like a difficult environment for the PD, if it is becoming weaker both in the growing periphery and in the former left-wing strongholds in the semi-center.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,402
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2017, 06:55:47 PM »

Is there any place to (easily) access election results and basic census results at a neighbourhood/quarters for the major cities, particularly Rome?
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2017, 06:59:28 AM »

Thank you, very interesting! Seems like a difficult environment for the PD, if it is becoming weaker both in the growing periphery and in the former left-wing strongholds in the semi-center.

Indeed, it's an extremely difficult environment. But in some sense the problems that PD has in Rome are more or less the reflection of its problems with certain social categories more broadly.

Quote from: Restricted
You must be logged in to read this quote.

For what concerns Rome, there is a great website called MappaRoma which provides maps (and datasets) for both electoral results and sociodemographic variables.
http://mapparoma.blogspot.it/

For other cities, either you can see http://mappeelettorali.it/ or go to the electoral websites of each single municipality and download the more detailed results by precint.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: March 03, 2017, 05:40:25 PM »

Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2017, 10:33:47 AM »

Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2017, 02:16:09 PM »

Huh, I didn't remember AN was so strong in Puglia.
For the rest, typical strength in the Center-South and bad results in the north (except for Trieste, which has its own reasons for being a bit nationalistic...), where Lega Nord swept the field.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 12 queries.