Something interesting I just noticed in the results
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  Something interesting I just noticed in the results
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Author Topic: Something interesting I just noticed in the results  (Read 578 times)
Crumpets
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« on: February 23, 2017, 06:23:22 PM »
« edited: February 26, 2017, 03:17:21 PM by Crumpets »

Despite Minnesota being the only state Hillary won from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, it is actually the state of those from which she received the lowest portion of the vote:

1. Pennsylvania - 47.46%
2. Florida - 47.41%
3. Michigan - 47.03%
4. Wisconsin - 46.45%

5. Minnesota - 46.44%

Perhaps this suggests the Democrats are on thin ice there if some of the third parties come home in 2020?
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Bismarck
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2017, 06:35:09 PM »

I don't think Hillary will be on any kind of ice in 2020? But that is an interesting observation. Minnesota along with Maine, New Hampshire, and Colorado (and maybe Nevada but I'd doubt it) are all states Trump could flip in a close election.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2017, 07:03:13 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2017, 07:05:00 PM by Tintrlvr »

Minnesota usually has a higher vote for third-party candidates than other states in the Midwest due to the phenomenon of the Independence Party, which is now almost entirely defunct but was very salient in the recent past. It was by far Johnson's best state in the Midwest in 2012 also, e.g., and Stein's best in 2012 outside of Michigan (where Johnson wasn't on the ballot) and Illinois (historically strong local Green Party). Doesn't mean much on a macro level except that the winning candidate in Minnesota in a competitive statewide race wins a lower percentage of the vote than in other nearby states.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2017, 07:08:30 PM »

I don't think Hillary will be on any kind of ice in 2020? But that is an interesting observation. Minnesota along with Maine, New Hampshire, and Colorado (and maybe Nevada but I'd doubt it) are all states Trump could flip in a close election.

Lol. Good catch. I'll fix it.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2017, 02:42:17 PM »

I don't think Hillary will be on any kind of ice in 2020? But that is an interesting observation. Minnesota along with Maine, New Hampshire, and Colorado (and maybe Nevada but I'd doubt it) are all states Trump could flip in a close election.

I agree on the former three, but CO seems to be out of the step with the other 3 states. If the trends are magnified, CO moves further away while the other 3 come closer to. However, this all assumes that Trump will be a successful president. We can already tell that is not going to be the case.
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Smash255
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« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2017, 11:19:26 AM »

Despite Minnesota being the only state Hillary won from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, it is actually the state of those from which she received the lowest portion of the vote:

1. Pennsylvania - 47.46%
2. Florida - 47.41%
3. Michigan - 47.03%
4. Wisconsin - 46.45%

5. Minnesota - 46.44%

Perhaps this suggests the Democrat's are on thin ice there if some of the third parties come home in 2020?


I wouldn't put too much stock into it.  Keep in mind Minnesota traditionally has more of an Independent streak than any of those.  In fact you need to go back to 1984 with Mondale to see a year where any of those states had a higher third party % than Minnesota (and that was Wisconsin by 0.05%)
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Hydera
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« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2017, 12:16:04 PM »

I don't think Hillary will be on any kind of ice in 2020? But that is an interesting observation. Minnesota along with Maine, New Hampshire, and Colorado (and maybe Nevada but I'd doubt it) are all states Trump could flip in a close election.

Colorado does not warrant inclusion on that list. Trump is a horrible fit for the state, and I'm betting he's already starting to piss his weed-friendly supporters there off.

Hillary was polling underwater in Colorado in early 2016 against every GOP candidate. But Trump's comments made her rebound in that state.
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