Could Bernie have won WV against someone besides Trump?
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  Could Bernie have won WV against someone besides Trump?
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Author Topic: Could Bernie have won WV against someone besides Trump?  (Read 7284 times)
White Trash
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« Reply #25 on: March 02, 2017, 08:09:15 PM »

Let's say that Gore doesn't campaign like a Rockefeller Republican and doesn't pick...ugh... Joe Lieberman as his running mate. While he may still lose, the Democratic Party's image isn't nearly as damaged in the South and Appalachia.

In addition, the 2004 primaries go a bit differently. Edwards, Clark, or Dean wins and they try to implement the "fifty-state strategy". Again, even if they still lose their image isn't nearly as tarnished as it would be had they nominated Kerry.

Now this is where, there is a clear divergence. Clinton wins the nomination in '08. And maintains her more conservative/beer track/dunkin donuts image she had back then. The recession hits as it did in OTL, and Clinton wins in a near landslide.

By this point, West Virginia would be either a tossup or at best a lean Democrat state. Let's say Sanders gets the nomination in 2016. Against a Rubio/Jeb/Cruz, I'd say that West Virginia would be safe in his column.
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Intell
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« Reply #26 on: March 03, 2017, 03:42:02 AM »

Can we please get over the absurd idea that there are lots of rural white people clamoring for some true leftist to come along.

Have you heard of Vermont?

Vermont cast only 320,000 votes in 2016. Barely worth a mention. And trying to draw an equivalency between Vermont and West Virginia doesn't even make sense - there are no coal miners in Vermont.

While the coal miners argument is true, this always need not be the case, if the democrats actually cared for them, and ignore their economic concerns.
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jfern
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« Reply #27 on: March 04, 2017, 02:16:28 AM »

I could see Bernie beating Pataki in West Virginia.
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VPH
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« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2017, 08:53:48 AM »

I do think scandal-free John Edwards or even Hillary Clinton could have made it really close in 2008.
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Sestak
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« Reply #29 on: October 20, 2019, 12:00:26 AM »

Country roads, take me home...
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #30 on: October 20, 2019, 12:01:14 AM »

to the place I belong
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lfromnj
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« Reply #31 on: October 20, 2019, 12:31:21 AM »

He maybe does 4-5 points better than Hillary and wins Monongolia?
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« Reply #32 on: October 20, 2019, 01:54:49 AM »

Let's say that Gore doesn't campaign like a Rockefeller Republican and doesn't pick...ugh... Joe Lieberman as his running mate. While he may still lose, the Democratic Party's image isn't nearly as damaged in the South and Appalachia.

In addition, the 2004 primaries go a bit differently. Edwards, Clark, or Dean wins and they try to implement the "fifty-state strategy". Again, even if they still lose their image isn't nearly as tarnished as it would be had they nominated Kerry.

Now this is where, there is a clear divergence. Clinton wins the nomination in '08. And maintains her more conservative/beer track/dunkin donuts image she had back then. The recession hits as it did in OTL, and Clinton wins in a near landslide.

By this point, West Virginia would be either a tossup or at best a lean Democrat state. Let's say Sanders gets the nomination in 2016. Against a Rubio/Jeb/Cruz, I'd say that West Virginia would be safe in his column.


No 2008 would have been a last hurrah for the WV Dem party in that case, similarly how 1988 was a last hurrah for the VT GOP
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Beet
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« Reply #33 on: October 20, 2019, 03:54:47 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2019, 03:58:12 AM by Beet »

2008 West Virginia Democratic primary:

Hillary Clinton
240,980

Barack Obama
92,736

2016 West Virginia Democratic primary:

Bernie Sanders
124,700

Hillary Clinton
86,914

Paul Farrell Jr.
21,694

Sanders' 2016 total was closer to Obama's 2008 total than Clinton's 2008 total. This primary took place after Ted Cruz had dropped out, so the only competitive primary left was on the Democratic side, yet...
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #34 on: October 20, 2019, 09:28:48 AM »

No of course not.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #35 on: October 21, 2019, 11:07:09 PM »

No
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #36 on: October 22, 2019, 08:45:11 AM »

No, but vs Jeb, he might "only" have lost by low double digits and would have had a good chance of winning Atlas favorite McDowell county, plus maybe a few other very poor low population ones.
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Basil
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« Reply #37 on: October 22, 2019, 09:07:45 AM »

Voters do not care about policy. We can see this in Missouri, passing a Medicare expansion and higher minimum wage while also voting out McCaskill. Most voters have an allegiance to one party and won't even consider voting for the other one (even if they identity as an independent). Swing voters are those not plugged into the political discourse. They want someone who they feel will fight for them, who can relate to them, and who cares about them.

Bernie Sanders would have gotten closer than Clinton thanks to those swing voters, but the allegiance of most West Virginians to the Republican Party is too great for him to actually win.
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