Sun Belt vs. Rust Belt

[Trapsy]

Do both. Instead of deciding during presidential election time which part of the country to take how about the Dems start to compete everywhere. There is a lot of time to build party infrastructure in the sun belt while also re building in the rust belt.

[Person Man]

The Sun Belt's dems desperately need to become better organized.

[pbrower2a]

Watch the gubernatorial races of 2016. The Democratic incumbent is weak in Pennsylvania.  But Republicans could lose state houses in Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin...

Donald Trump will need plenty of help with voter suppression to get re-elected.

[Person Man]

You would think that Republicans would be as vulnerable to that sort of monkey business because their voters are now as easy to target as Democrats are.

48% of Democratic Voters are Minorities.

46% of Republican Voters are White Fundamentalists.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

JBE is never going to be the nominee, he's way too conservative for even black Democrats to support, much less the white liberal Sanders brigade.

Yup, Bernie people aren't going to support some conservadem Perez supporter and the SJWs aren't going to support some straight southern cis white male.

You don't know anything about "SJW's" or the democratic party. "SJW's"(your codename for people who care about issues that don't apply to spoiled white collage kids) are the people who would be by far the most against the social conservatism of Edwards. I suspect the southern accent would do as much more to sink him among the #trueleftist collage kids you think all sandernistas are then the social conservatism.

Really, I suspect the majority of the democratic party will not be in the mood for a brash, anti-establishment, folksy populist after 4 years of trump.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or should we just worry about presenting a message that broadly appeals to voters in any of those states?

This is the only non-"Dover Beach" answer.

Excellent analogy. Correct as well.

[ShamDam]

Or should we just worry about presenting a message that broadly appeals to voters in any of those states?

This is the only non-"Dover Beach" answer.

Excellent analogy. Correct as well.

What does it mean to be a "Dover Beach" answer?

[Person Man]

Or should we just worry about presenting a message that broadly appeals to voters in any of those states?

This is the only non-"Dover Beach" answer.

Excellent analogy. Correct as well.

What does it mean to be a "Dover Beach" answer?

Have you heard of the Dover Cliffs?

[ShamDam]

Or should we just worry about presenting a message that broadly appeals to voters in any of those states?

This is the only non-"Dover Beach" answer.

Excellent analogy. Correct as well.

What does it mean to be a "Dover Beach" answer?

Have you heard of the Dover Cliffs?

I hadn't! I've Googled so now I have, but I'm still not seeing the connection.

[Skill and Chance]

Right now, the problem with the Sun Belt strategy is Minnesota.  If they lose Minnesota, they have to win 3 of FL/AZ/NC/GA or flip Texas.  That is a very tall order.  Of course, they can probably use the Sun Belt strategy to flip a few more voters in MSP proper so it's a close call.

[Sir Mohamed]

It really depends on the economic condition of those rust belt states 4 years from now. Whites without a college degree are very swing-able. It also depends on who the democratic nominee is. Sherrod Brown or Al Franken might be using a different strategy than Cory Booker or Kamala Harris will.

If the economies of the rust belt states start to improve and the Democrats secede the economic populism ground to Trump then the sunbelt strategy will probably come first. They'll emphasize social issues, double down on identity politics, and pursue a more hawkish tone on foreign policy. Their targets will be NC, AZ, FL, and maybe GA. College educated whites + minorities coalition.

If the rust belt is still crap and the nominee is Sherrod Brown or Al Franken then you'll see the rust belt strategy be in effect. They'll target whites without a college degree and emphasize economic populism combined with a more humble foreign policy. They'll likely moderate more on issues like gun control and possibly abortion. Whites without a college degree + minorities coalition.

JBE as the nominee might try to apply the rust belt strategy to southern states as well and build a minorities plus working class whites coalition to win states like GA, FL, NC, etc.

I basically agree with this analysis. The only thing I have doubts on is that Democrats will generally “moderate” on abortion and gun control. I expect they will remain pretty liberal on these issues in general, while a few (mostly red state) politicians will adopt different positions closer to the political center or even mildly conservative.

JBE is unlikely to be the nominee, because he’s probably too “conservative” (by Dem standards) to win a national primary and there’s also a timing problem: He’s up for reelection as governor in November 2019. If he wants to run for president, he has to announce by late summer 2019, in the midst of a statewide reelection campaign. But running for both offices would probably hurt him and seriously endanger the gubernatorial election (a loss here would cost tremendous momentum in the presidential race as well). If he wants to seek the presidency, JBE has essentially decline to run for a second term as governor. But does he really want to give it away to enter a race with a very uncertain outcome? I doubt it. Nevertheless, he could end up as VP. JBE would be a good choice for a very liberal nominee like Warren or Harris (also in terms of gender and geography).

[Virginiá]

Yup, Bernie people aren't going to support some conservadem Perez supporter and the SJWs aren't going to support some straight southern cis white male.

Yup, Bernie people and SJWs aren't going to support a conservadem.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or should we just worry about presenting a message that broadly appeals to voters in any of those states?

This is the only non-"Dover Beach" answer.

Excellent analogy. Correct as well.

What does it mean to be a "Dover Beach" answer?

It's a reference to a well known poem by Matthew Arnold.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats will be wise to go back to the 50-state strategy. I'd want the Republicans putting resources into defending what we now consider 'safe' states.

I expect Republicans to cheat. They will have far too much to lose to play fair.

[SCNCmod]

For 2020... I think Florida & Penn will be the key (although with someone like Castro Florida/Arizona is possible).  Georgia & Arizona (with a SW candidate) are not likely to flip until 2024.  Texas presidential 2028... (although I do think Texas Senate in a 2018 off-year election between Joaquin Castro & Cruz is a 1-off possibility).

One other factor that could help with Arizona (esp if Castro was on the ticket).. I think they accepted medicaid expansion- so there are several hundred thousand voters who would loose Obamacare if the repeal goes through... such voters would likely be motivated to vote against Trump.... (similar to the uproar in Arkansas from many medicaid expanded voters- although I know a Dem Prez will not win Arkansas).

But I think increased turnout in 2020 in Penn & Florida.....and maybe Michigan will lead to Dem wins (which was lower in 2016 due to assuming Hillary would win & Hillary herself being the candidate).

So for 2020 a mix Sun-Belt/ Rust-Belt is prob best strategy (Florida & Penn)

[SCNCmod]

For 2020... I think Florida & Penn will be the key (although with someone like Castro Florida/Arizona is possible).  Georgia & Arizona (with a SW candidate) are not likely to flip until 2024.  Texas presidential 2028... (although I do think Texas Senate in a 2018 off-year election between Joaquin Castro & Cruz is a 1-off possibility).

One other factor that could help with Arizona (esp if Castro was on the ticket).. I think they accepted medicaid expansion- so there are several hundred thousand voters who would loose Obamacare if the repeal goes through... such voters would likely be motivated to vote against Trump.... (similar to the uproar in Arkansas from many medicaid expanded voters- although I know a Dem Prez will not win Arkansas).

But I think increased turnout in 2020 in Penn & Florida.....and maybe Michigan will lead to Dem wins (which was lower in 2016 due to assuming Hillary would win & Hillary herself being the candidate).

So for 2020 a mix Sun-Belt/ Rust-Belt is prob best strategy (Florida & Penn)

I would think this would be easiest in Michigan out of the three... wasn't turnout way down in Detroit?  Those are pretty much guaranteed votes for the Democrat.

Yes regarding Detroit... If you went just on increasing low turnout, you would also need either Wisc or Penn .... (I'm assuming turnout was also low in either Philly and/or Milwaukee)... or low enough, considering both states were under 1%.

Also regarding the under 1% states (Wisc, Mich, Penn)... you had a fair amount of Stein protest voters (many of whom I think assumed Hillary would win). Some of these will probably vote Dem in 2020.

Florida was up overall, but I'm not sure If that was due to new Trump voters or if turnout was up on both sides?

[Skill and Chance]

I think the consensus is that they are more likely to win back the Rust Belt states in 2020, because they need an anomalously weak economy to beat Trump anyway, and economic weakness would be felt more acutely there.  There's also the matter of avoiding a 5+ senate seat loss next year.  On the other hand, if Trump is reasonably popular and 2020 is a lost cause anyway, the Sun Belt strategy is clearly the better one for 2024, particularly if Pence is the nominee.  He has "Republican Hillary" written all over him IMO.

[BaldEagle1991]

Well its because the Sun Belt and Rust Belt have two very different cultures.

Florida is a bit of both.

For someone that has been to Florida a lot, and a gf from FL. It's not really.

There are a lot of Rust Belt people down here. I guess it really depends on where you are.

She's from Orlando. I usually go to Central Florida (Orlando/Tampa) whenever I go there. Plus I sometimes drive through Northern FL. Miami I hardly ever visit.

There really isn't any industry down here but there is a lot of light stuff and limestone mining. There are a lot of rust belt people, though. I think a good analogy about the people is that north of I-4, it's more of the Bible Belt, between I-4 and Lake a Okeechobee, its more of a Rust Belt feel, and below that its like the Big Northern City.

It's really hard to define Florida and it should be split down the middle, but the Democrats down here are "hard to organize". 

I think you're forgetting tourism which is helped by Disney World, Universal, SeaWorld, Busch Gardens and even NASA at Cape Canaveral.

[CMB222]

For 2020, the Dems need to focus on finding a suitable candidate to face Trump rather than worrying about what states to win.

[SCNCmod]

For 2020, the Dems need to focus on finding a suitable candidate to face Trump rather than worrying about what states to win.

It the popular vote determined the winner.. this would be correct... unfortunately, until the electoral college aligns with the pop vote (in 2024 or 2028)... then you also have to look at demographics & states. (Republicans have won the popular vote 1 time in the past 25 years... but have would 3 presidential elections)

[1978 New Wave skinny trousers]

If the Democrats want to compete in 2020 and in future elections, then it is absolutely necessary for them to rebuild the Blue Wall. This would be accomplished by winning back Rust Belt states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

[Webnicz]

As a democrat in Arizona, what makes me the most mad is knowing that instead of investing in AZ the DNC will now have to invest in rebuilding in the rustbelt and pushed back another         10+ years winning statewide in AZ.
I however hope the DNC chooses the sunbelt strategy, regardless, its time a new bench was created.