IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[Mike Thick]

Messer, meanwhile, went out and bought a bunch of $3,000 suits, while the median district of IN-06 is $50,588.

Leaked footage of Messer on the job

[Bismarck]

Young had a rough primary with Stutzman in 2016 and it didn't stop him from beating the most successful democratic politician of the last half century in Indiana in a ten point landslide.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Politico on Messer-Rokita: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/15/todd-rokita-luke-messer-indiana-primary-241622

[MT Treasurer]

Howey's take on the race, he thinks it's Lean Democrat

I agree with some of his points, honestly. Donnelly will probably be up by a lot in the first public polls.

[Kamala]

Donnelly's all steak and no sizzle. He's inoffensive and a very solid senator. If this was a Clinton midterm he'd be severely disadvantaged, but in Trump's midterm I think he's got an advantage.

I think, in general, he's very similar to Rob Portman, in the lack of glitz and focus on being a good fit for the state.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Indiana Dems are favored to lose until polls show otherwise, but Donnelly has a far better chance than Generic D would.

[Bismarck]

Donnelly's all steak and no sizzle. He's inoffensive and a very solid senator. If this was a Clinton midterm he'd be severely disadvantaged, but in Trump's midterm I think he's got an advantage.

I think, in general, he's very similar to Rob Portman, in the lack of glitz and focus on being a good fit for the state.

Basically this. Hoosiers prefer republicans but will vote for a "good" democrat over a "meh" republican. Nobody hates Joe Donnelly. I think tossup is more accurate though with a very slight edge to Donnelly.

[Hoosier_Nick]

I'm considering moving this from "Toss-up" to "Tilt-D". I think Donnelly has done a great job projecting his moderate positions to the state, while also staying vigilant in the resistance. Also the R-Primary being a complete sh*tshow helps.

Also: http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/former-aides-say-rep-todd-rokita-yelled-staff-docked-pay/624152001/

lol

[Bismarck]

Donnelly's all steak and no sizzle. He's inoffensive and a very solid senator. If this was a Clinton midterm he'd be severely disadvantaged, but in Trump's midterm I think he's got an advantage.

I think, in general, he's very similar to Rob Portman, in the lack of glitz and focus on being a good fit for the state.

Basically this. Hoosiers prefer republicans but will vote for a "good" democrat over a "meh" republican. Nobody hates Joe Donnelly. I think tossup is more accurate though with a very slight edge to Donnelly.

What do you think a public poll would show right now? Donnelly +12? Too bad that IN, ND, MT and PA all haven't been polled yet.

Wild guess I would say Donnelly +5-10. He is not well known enough to be up by 20+ points.

[Bismarck]

I'm considering moving this from "Toss-up" to "Tilt-D". I think Donnelly has done a great job projecting his moderate positions to the state, while also staying vigilant in the resistance. Also the R-Primary being a complete sh*tshow helps.

Also: http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/former-aides-say-rep-todd-rokita-yelled-staff-docked-pay/624152001/

lol

Rokita is terrible. He's unpleasant to be around.

[windjammer]

Howey's take on the race, he thinks it's Lean Democrat

I agree with some of his points, honestly. Donnelly will probably be up by a lot in the first public polls.

Yeah honestly even if it is toss up, it's more tilt dem than tilt rep for now. Donnelly is underrated and Rokita/Messer don't seem to be great candidates like Todd Young.

[KingSweden]

Young had a rough primary with Stutzman in 2016 and it didn't stop him from beating the most successful democratic politician of the last half century in Indiana in a ten point landslide.

TBF didn't Bayh have some pretty extreme liabilities with his residency gaffes? Took down Luger, too.

(Pro tip, aspiring pols: live in your goddamn home state)

[Maxwell]

Young had a rough primary with Stutzman in 2016 and it didn't stop him from beating the most successful democratic politician of the last half century in Indiana in a ten point landslide.

TBF didn't Bayh have some pretty extreme liabilities with his residency gaffes? Took down Luger, too.

(Pro tip, aspiring pols: live in your goddamn home state)

residency issues were the least of Bayh's problems, which ultimately was him being a gignatic swamp monster who left the Senate to become a major lobbyist and then running back to Indiana for an electoral gig. Hint hint that never works.

[windjammer]

Howey's take on the race, he thinks it's Lean Democrat

I agree with some of his points, honestly. Donnelly will probably be up by a lot in the first public polls.

Yeah honestly even if it is toss up, it's more tilt dem than tilt rep for now. Donnelly is underrated and Rokita/Messer don't seem to be great candidates like Todd Young.

Yeah, though I still think it's the most likely Democratic-held seat to flip after MO. Sure, they have a very good chance in MT, but Tester's floor is too high for MT to be more likely to flip than IN IMO. And Heitkamp and Manchin are way too popular and better known than Donnelly.

Oh I definitely agree with this sentiment.

Regarding MT, I think it's a bit too early to have any feelings about the outcome of the race.

[MT Treasurer]

Oh I definitely agree with this sentiment.

Regarding MT, I think it's a bit too early to have any feelings about the outcome of the race.

Oh, sure. I won't feel 100% confident about Republican chances here until I see the checkmark next to the Republican candidate's name. I definitely believe it's a Tossup, though (even if early polling will indicate otherwise)

[I’m not Stu]

Who wins the primary, Rokita or Messer?

[Bismarck]

Who wins the primary, Rokita or Messer?

Absolute Tossup until we see some polling. Messer would be my preference. Rokita is probably better known because he has won statewide in the past. Messer will get more establishment backing.

[MarkD]

Who wins the primary, Rokita or Messer?

Maybe neither.
As I've pointed out before on this thread, Rokita and Messer engaging in a fierce fight with each other could end up making them both look so bad that one of the other candidates in this race - someone we might look at now as likely to come in third place - might be able to beat both of them. Someone like state Rep. Mike Braun might end up winning the primary because a war between the two congressmen ruins both of their images.

[The Other Castro]

Susan Brooks endorses Luke Messer.

http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Press-Release--Susan-Brooks-Endorses-Luke-Messer-.html?soid=1123214391458&aid=cV0NtqoURWE

[Heisenberg]

Braun launches a Super PAC.
And will resign from the State House to focus on his campaign.

Edit: Fixed broken link.

[Cactus Jack]

Braun launches a Super PAC.
[urlhttps://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/braun-to-resign-state-house-seat-amid-us-senate-run]And will resign from the State House to focus on his campaign.[/url]

Call me crazy, but Braun worries me more than either of the big names currently gunning for the seat. Messer and Rokita have national profiles that Donnelly can use against them, but Braun is a local politician running an anti-establishment campaign.

[MarkD]

Braun could learn something from the campaign tactics of Russ Feingold in 1992, per the story I posted about before on this thread, on August 2.

Run a positive campaign about himself, never mentioning Messer or Rokita except to point out the fact that they are running extremely negative campaigns against each other.

[Kingpoleon]

Greg Ballard, Mitch Daniels, or a former Daniels ally could beat Donnelly, such as Bill Oesterle or Murray Clark. That said, Curtis Hill seems much stronger than Rokita or Messer.

[Maxwell]

yeah I definitely think both Messer and Rotika could blow it and allow Braun to win the nomination. Messer is aggressively anti-charismatic and mediocre and Rotika is aggressively unlikable and a diva and both HATE eachother.

[MT Treasurer]

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