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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?
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Author Topic: IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?  (Read 40671 times)
Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #150 on: January 07, 2018, 10:55:40 pm »

I completely missed that End Citizens United endorsed Donnelly...

https://twitter.com/StopBigMoney/status/949411801233543169
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #151 on: January 08, 2018, 07:37:05 am »

Forgot to post this:

https://www.wthr.com/article/indiana-senate-candidate-mike-braun-fired-white-nationalist-aide

A Republican pol with honesty and integrity when it comes to the new-gen Neo-Nazis? Goddamn. Yeah, Donnelly has easily the most to fear from Braun.

I think, probably, Braun just hired some random guy who he didn't know was a White Nationalist, then fired him when he found out. Nothing wrong, but I will say he should probably start vetting his aides.

Oh, that's likely, but my point is that Braun is the sort of principled candidate that Donnelly needs to fear - the type that won't depress turnout among any Republican bloc except the hardcore deplorables who actually like white nationalists.

You act as if rejecting white nationalism is a winning strategy in a GOP primary. Strange.

Edgy. Tongue But it is in Indiana, evidently. Pence aside, Indianans seem to prefer principled, mainstream conservatives like Young, Daniels, and Holcomb. It's why I highly doubt Rokita is going to be the nominee in any case (that and the fact that he's an aggressive asshole).

How silly of you. That means Rokita is the prohibitive favorite in the GOP primary.

Tell that to Marlin Stutzman.

Tell that to Richard Lugar.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #152 on: January 08, 2018, 08:57:23 am »

Forgot to post this:

https://www.wthr.com/article/indiana-senate-candidate-mike-braun-fired-white-nationalist-aide

A Republican pol with honesty and integrity when it comes to the new-gen Neo-Nazis? Goddamn. Yeah, Donnelly has easily the most to fear from Braun.

I think, probably, Braun just hired some random guy who he didn't know was a White Nationalist, then fired him when he found out. Nothing wrong, but I will say he should probably start vetting his aides.

Oh, that's likely, but my point is that Braun is the sort of principled candidate that Donnelly needs to fear - the type that won't depress turnout among any Republican bloc except the hardcore deplorables who actually like white nationalists.

You act as if rejecting white nationalism is a winning strategy in a GOP primary. Strange.

Edgy. Tongue But it is in Indiana, evidently. Pence aside, Indianans seem to prefer principled, mainstream conservatives like Young, Daniels, and Holcomb. It's why I highly doubt Rokita is going to be the nominee in any case (that and the fact that he's an aggressive asshole).

How silly of you. That means Rokita is the prohibitive favorite in the GOP primary.

Tell that to Marlin Stutzman.

Tell that to Richard Lugar.

Actually I think the memory of the lugar mourdock race helped Young in 2016, a lot of GOP primary voters realized they blew an easy win and didnít want to repeat the mistake. Iím not sure if that will carry over into 2018, but there is a solid base of mainstream republicans that has retained more power in Indiana than in other states. Also as a side note, ďIndianansĒ is incorrect and makes folks from here cringe. The correct term for a person from Indiana is a Hoosier.
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Castro
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« Reply #153 on: January 11, 2018, 02:33:52 pm »

Rokita and Braun accuse Messer of rigging a Senate straw poll.

Quote
U.S. Senate candidate Luke Messer is paying for college students to attend a state Republican party straw poll event on Saturday ó a move his opponents are criticizing as vote rigging.

But Messer's campaign and the state's Republican party chairman are defending the tactic.

Emails and social media exchanges obtained by IndyStar show that Messer campaign staffers offered to cover registration and hotel costs for college students to attend the Indiana Republican Party's Congress of Counties conference.

The event takes place Friday and Saturday and will include a straw poll featuring all six GOP candidates running in Indiana's contentious U.S. Senate primary. The state party describes the straw poll as "the first grassroots barometer to measure early support in this high-profile, statewide race that has national implications."

More than 500 Republicans are expected to attend.

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/951513399363502081
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #154 on: January 11, 2018, 03:00:08 pm »

Yeah, Messer is definitely a Todd Youngian force of electoral nature.

Braun continues to be the strongest Republican going, and it's looking all the likelier he cuts up through the middle between Messer and Rokita.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #155 on: January 13, 2018, 09:54:12 pm »

https://twitter.com/indgop/status/952253852484554752

Messer wins the strawpoll at the GOP meeting. About the result I'd expect looking at the Messer/Rokita/Braun ratio.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #156 on: January 14, 2018, 01:16:16 pm »

https://twitter.com/indgop/status/952253852484554752

Messer wins the strawpoll at the GOP meeting. About the result I'd expect looking at the Messer/Rokita/Braun ratio.

Good result. Wonít matter much but it should be a good signal to GOP donors that Messer is their man.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #157 on: January 14, 2018, 10:09:33 pm »

https://twitter.com/indgop/status/952253852484554752

Messer wins the strawpoll at the GOP meeting. About the result I'd expect looking at the Messer/Rokita/Braun ratio.

Good result. Wonít matter much but it should be a good signal to GOP donors that Messer is their man.

He's the man to the Indiana establishment. I'm not sure that his support from them will translate to the GOP grassroots. Have they learned their lesson? Maybe. But I'm skeptical.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #158 on: February 01, 2018, 09:45:21 am »

Q4 numbers:

Braun: 2 million (!!!)
Donnelly: 1.2 million
Messer: 430 thousand (!!!)
Rokita: hasn't posted his numbers yet...?

(source) https://howeypolitics.com/

Okay, I'm not sure how Rokita hasn't posted his numbers yet since we're past the filling deadline, but whatever. I know Braun is independently wealthy, but wow. 2 million? And Messer could only muster up 430 thousand? This is a three-way horserace. Definitely one to watch.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #159 on: February 01, 2018, 10:17:20 am »

Q4 numbers:

Braun: 2 million (!!!)
Donnelly: 1.2 million
Messer: 430 thousand (!!!)
Rokita: hasn't posted his numbers yet...?

(source) https://howeypolitics.com/

Okay, I'm not sure how Rokita hasn't posted his numbers yet since we're past the filling deadline, but whatever. I know Braun is independently wealthy, but wow. 2 million? And Messer could only muster up 430 thousand? This is a three-way horserace. Definitely one to watch.


Go Braun!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #160 on: February 01, 2018, 11:43:43 am »

https://twitter.com/indgop/status/952253852484554752

Messer wins the strawpoll at the GOP meeting. About the result I'd expect looking at the Messer/Rokita/Braun ratio.

Is this the straw poll he was accused of rigging?
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #161 on: February 01, 2018, 02:29:49 pm »

https://twitter.com/indgop/status/952253852484554752

Messer wins the strawpoll at the GOP meeting. About the result I'd expect looking at the Messer/Rokita/Braun ratio.

Is this the straw poll he was accused of rigging?

Yes.

Also, Rokita comes up with 450 thousand, essentially nothing (lol.)
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KingSweden
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« Reply #162 on: February 01, 2018, 03:09:31 pm »

Braun might seriously become the front runner soon
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #163 on: February 02, 2018, 09:18:20 am »

Braun might seriously become the front runner soon

Braun concerns me much more than the Congressmen clowns.

Same. Everyone has 3 months left to get him out of the race.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #164 on: February 02, 2018, 10:07:00 am »

I am concerned by Donnelly's small haul.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #165 on: February 09, 2018, 02:38:10 pm »

For all the talk, Donnelly passes the filling day without a primary challenge. Will be Donnelly, Braun, Messer and Rokita on the May 8th primary ballots.
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Former Kentuckian
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« Reply #166 on: February 09, 2018, 11:57:41 pm »

Q4 numbers:

Braun: 2 million (!!!)
Donnelly: 1.2 million
Messer: 430 thousand (!!!)
Rokita: hasn't posted his numbers yet...?

(source) https://howeypolitics.com/

Okay, I'm not sure how Rokita hasn't posted his numbers yet since we're past the filling deadline, but whatever. I know Braun is independently wealthy, but wow. 2 million? And Messer could only muster up 430 thousand? This is a three-way horserace. Definitely one to watch.

Braun is self-financing. 90% of his funds are from himself, and he says he has more on the way. Donnelly and the other Republicans have been relying on traditional fundraising.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #167 on: February 12, 2018, 09:59:21 am »

Q4 numbers:

Braun: 2 million (!!!)
Donnelly: 1.2 million
Messer: 430 thousand (!!!)
Rokita: hasn't posted his numbers yet...?

(source) https://howeypolitics.com/

Okay, I'm not sure how Rokita hasn't posted his numbers yet since we're past the filling deadline, but whatever. I know Braun is independently wealthy, but wow. 2 million? And Messer could only muster up 430 thousand? This is a three-way horserace. Definitely one to watch.

Braun is self-financing. 90% of his funds are from himself, and he says he has more on the way. Donnelly and the other Republicans have been relying on traditional fundraising.

Still, thatís unideal. Maybe Donnelly is in more trouble than McCaskill.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #168 on: February 12, 2018, 10:07:08 am »

This is just a guess, but I assume Donnelly lacks the fundraising base that McCaskill has? He's never been a very high figure in the party, seems to keep to himself etc
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Former Kentuckian
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« Reply #169 on: February 12, 2018, 10:32:32 am »
« Edited: February 12, 2018, 01:35:24 pm by Cal »

If 90% of Braun's funds are self-financed as Cal said, then that would put his traditional fundraising figures at ~200k.  Which would still mean Donnelly is outraising the Republican field through traditional fundraising.  A bit over ~1mil for the Republican field and ~1.2mil for Donnelly is encouraging numbers.

I'm not saying that Braun's self-fundraising should be ignored, it's very clearly a threat.  But I don't think we should act like Donnelly's fundraising is suddenly awful because Braun has more personal wealth to juke up his own numbers.

Here's percentages breaking down donations and self-financing: https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2018&id=INS1&spec=N

Braun has raised less than $400,000 from donors and has loaned his campaign over $3 million since announcing. Donnelly still has over twice on-hand what Braun does, though.
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Homosexual Extremist
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« Reply #170 on: February 12, 2018, 11:46:23 am »

Q4 numbers:

Braun: 2 million (!!!)
Donnelly: 1.2 million
Messer: 430 thousand (!!!)
Rokita: hasn't posted his numbers yet...?

(source) https://howeypolitics.com/

Okay, I'm not sure how Rokita hasn't posted his numbers yet since we're past the filling deadline, but whatever. I know Braun is independently wealthy, but wow. 2 million? And Messer could only muster up 430 thousand? This is a three-way horserace. Definitely one to watch.

Braun is self-financing. 90% of his funds are from himself, and he says he has more on the way. Donnelly and the other Republicans have been relying on traditional fundraising.

Still, thatís unideal. Maybe Donnelly is in more trouble than McCaskill.

I so agree. I think McCaskill is often underrated as a campaigner and fundraiser. Her win in 2012 was not accidental, whereas Donnellyís was much less intentional.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #171 on: February 12, 2018, 05:32:25 pm »

Q4 numbers:

Braun: 2 million (!!!)
Donnelly: 1.2 million
Messer: 430 thousand (!!!)
Rokita: hasn't posted his numbers yet...?

(source) https://howeypolitics.com/

Okay, I'm not sure how Rokita hasn't posted his numbers yet since we're past the filling deadline, but whatever. I know Braun is independently wealthy, but wow. 2 million? And Messer could only muster up 430 thousand? This is a three-way horserace. Definitely one to watch.

Braun is self-financing. 90% of his funds are from himself, and he says he has more on the way. Donnelly and the other Republicans have been relying on traditional fundraising.

Still, thatís unideal. Maybe Donnelly is in more trouble than McCaskill.

I so agree. I think McCaskill is often underrated as a campaigner and fundraiser. Her win in 2012 was not accidental, whereas Donnellyís was much less intentional.

I think  McCaskill is an exceptionally talented politician, but have thought sheís the weakest Democrat up this cycle, with Donnelly a close second. That might not quite be the case anymore, but weíll see. Itís good to know Donnelly still has much more on hand than Braun.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #172 on: February 12, 2018, 05:44:31 pm »

I really wish I had been wrong about Braun being the strongest candidate in the primary. Couple his self-funding with his being easily the most Indiana-friendly candidate of the three Republicans and I really don't like the idea of facing him.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #173 on: February 28, 2018, 09:29:36 am »

Rokita has his 1st TV slot up.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=4r5QXctM4L8
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Canis
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« Reply #174 on: February 28, 2018, 09:48:20 am »

Isn't trump below water in Indiana? running as Pro-trump might hurt him more than its going to help him
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