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  IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?
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Author Topic: IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?  (Read 40681 times)
Bismarck
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« Reply #175 on: February 28, 2018, 01:57:36 pm »

Here are two of Braun’s. The immigration one is on tv now. I’m not sure if messer has a spot up yet or not. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OKCbQ5UFgbY
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VXuwIZEVmFM
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Bismarck
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« Reply #176 on: February 28, 2018, 02:01:12 pm »

Here is the first debate if anyone’s interested. Messer is the sensible one but is afraid to say that so he tries to justify his less extremist positions like voting to not shutdown the government as what Trump wanted. Rokita might be the strongest debator but he was full of attack’s and in general is not a very nice guy. Braun was pretty rambly, and avoided taking clear positions.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rXcrhC1r8UY
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Bismarck
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« Reply #177 on: February 28, 2018, 02:10:21 pm »

Isn't trump below water in Indiana? running as Pro-trump might hurt him more than its going to help him

Trump is barely underwater but certainly is not among GOP primary voters.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #178 on: March 02, 2018, 09:32:27 am »

Isn't trump below water in Indiana? running as Pro-trump might hurt him more than its going to help him

Not in the primaries
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« Reply #179 on: March 15, 2018, 10:06:47 am »

A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it
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« Reply #180 on: March 15, 2018, 11:20:29 am »

A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

I think Messer is without question

They're both worse than Braun at the moment, but I tend to view Rokita as more likely to underperform in Indianapolis and Fort Wayne and their suburbs.
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« Reply #181 on: March 15, 2018, 11:30:24 am »

A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

I think Messer is without question

They're both worse than Braun at the moment, but I tend to view Rokita as more likely to underperform in Indianapolis and Fort Wayne and their suburbs.

After seeing Saccone and Gillespie go down in flames in the burbs, I’m not sure it matters who Republicans run. Their perceived difference in appeal in the suburbs will be negligible. Messe rwould be a much easier opponent to paint as an out of touch asshole DC elite in the rural areas.

Ya know what, that's plausible. Donnelly has decent rural / working class credibility and LM's weaknesses there could have an impact. That said, it'd probably wash with TR's weaknesses with the Mitch Danielses / suburbia republicans of the IN GOP.
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« Reply #182 on: March 15, 2018, 11:34:51 am »

A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

I think Messer is without question

They're both worse than Braun at the moment, but I tend to view Rokita as more likely to underperform in Indianapolis and Fort Wayne and their suburbs.

After seeing Saccone and Gillespie go down in flames in the burbs, I’m not sure it matters who Republicans run. Their perceived difference in appeal in the suburbs will be negligible. Messe rwould be a much easier opponent to paint as an out of touch asshole DC elite in the rural areas.

I think people aren't realizing that most Trump approvers are voting for republicans and most Trump disapprovers are voting democrat. Doubly so in federal races.

Conor Lamb got 5% of Trump approvers and Rick Saccone got 3% of Trump disapprovers. Very little crossover. And Lamb did a ton to distance himself from the national dem party.

The good news for these democrats in heavy Trump states is that Trump's approval has plummeted in a lot of them.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #183 on: March 15, 2018, 12:18:21 pm »

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.

It's also worth noting that Donnelly was always competitive against Mourdock, even before the rape comments, which were made in October. Polling showed Donnelly and Mourdock tied in March and then again in May. Mourdock then held a 2% lead over Donnelly in July and August, Donnelly took a 2% lead in September -- before the rape comments -- and then was tied or at least 3% ahead from post-Mourdock's incredible blunder. One poll even showed him 11% ahead in October.
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Gravelanche
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« Reply #184 on: March 15, 2018, 12:22:59 pm »

Why is the title of this board still "Messer deciding by May"?
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« Reply #185 on: March 15, 2018, 12:26:35 pm »

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.


Wouldn't surprise me if Donnelly exceeded his '12 performance in the county.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #186 on: March 20, 2018, 08:47:04 am »

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.


Wouldn't surprise me if Donnelly exceeded his '12 performance in the county.

I don't think Donnelly can win Hamilton, but it wouldn't surprise me if the county was within 10 points. It is diversifying, has very high education rates and is becoming more young, three great trends for Democrats. I've done some canvassing there and there are a *lot* of former Republicans willing to vote for Donnelly or another Democrat. Again, I know it's anecdotal, but I genuinely think that Donnelly could be competitive there.

And I'm very undecided on who would be the strongest candidate. If I had to say, I'd probably go with Braun>Messer>Rokita, though marginally. Although Braun has the residency issues and won't be as good of a fundraiser, he doesn't have the massive residency issue of Messer and isn't ridiculously gaffe-prone like Rokita. And as previously noted, Rokita would be a really weak candidate in areas like Hamilton County.
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« Reply #187 on: March 20, 2018, 02:22:03 pm »

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.


Wouldn't surprise me if Donnelly exceeded his '12 performance in the county.

I don't think Donnelly can win Hamilton, but it wouldn't surprise me if the county was within 10 points. It is diversifying, has very high education rates and is becoming more young, three great trends for Democrats. I've done some canvassing there and there are a *lot* of former Republicans willing to vote for Donnelly or another Democrat. Again, I know it's anecdotal, but I genuinely think that Donnelly could be competitive there.

And I'm very undecided on who would be the strongest candidate. If I had to say, I'd probably go with Braun>Messer>Rokita, though marginally. Although Braun has the residency issues and won't be as good of a fundraiser, he doesn't have the massive residency issue of Messer and isn't ridiculously gaffe-prone like Rokita. And as previously noted, Rokita would be a really weak candidate in areas like Hamilton County.

Depending on the nominee (*cough* Rokita *cough*), Hamilton could also see a disproportionately high share of third-party votes, as it did in '16-PRES. Something like 7-7.5% of voters there voted third party in the presidential election, which is just about double the share of voters who voted third party in the gubernatorial race. Roughly 4.4% voted third party in the Senate race. Braun and Messer would probably bring home those conservative third party protest voters moreso than Rokita in Hamilton County and wouldn't shed as many to Donnelly.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #188 on: March 20, 2018, 03:46:36 pm »

If Hamilton is within 10 points, would that be a result of a very tight election, or potential third-party split? If it’s the former, and Republicans put up Rosita, it seems like Donnelly could maybe when I plurality in the county.
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« Reply #189 on: March 20, 2018, 04:06:09 pm »
« Edited: March 30, 2018, 10:42:06 am by Loyola for Final Four »

If Hamilton is within 10 points, would that be a result of a very tight election, or potential third-party split? If it’s the former, and Republicans put up Rosita, it seems like Donnelly could maybe when I plurality in the county.

I lived in Hamilton for 15 years. It's not going for Donnelly this year, even with high third party turnout. Honestly, Donnelly's best realistic case is something like 42 Donnelly / 52 Rokita / 6% Libertarian. Maaaaaybe 45/49/6 in a blue tsunami and with low R turnout and high third party. And that's taking into consideration suburbs swings in PA-18, Virginia, GA-06,15 etc.

 As Nick mentioned above, there are demographic changes - it's getting younger and it's very well educated. But it's been a republican stronghold for decades and it's my personal opinion that there's a lot of inertia there for the older voters in the county.
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« Reply #190 on: March 30, 2018, 10:28:07 am »
« Edited: March 30, 2018, 10:53:08 am by StateBoiler »

Braun internal polling released, per Howey Politics' weekly newsletter:

Braun 30%, Rokita 21%, Messer 16%, Undecided 33%

https://howeypolitics.com/Files/HPI180329-4b1dfd469e4c45af977734e4ba515529.pdf

Interview of race's history, per Braun:

Quote
HPI: You’ve got some new internal polling. What does it tell you?

 Braun: Early on … back in July it was rumored that I might run and Curtis Hill, and there was a poll that showed me at 1 to 2%, Curtis at 2 to 3%. All the polls showed Todd Rokita, due to being secretary of state, at about 27%, and Luke Messer at 20 to 21%. It was mostly name recognition. After I declared in early August, we did our first baseline poll in September. All that had changed had been the acrimony that was out there. That had started to gin up. It was mostly about Todd Rokita talking about Luke Messer not having a home in the state and his wife’s being on the payroll in Fishers. We found out because of that we had risen into the high single digits and they had basically stayed the same. We didn’t do anything else until early February. The biggest decision I’ve had to make in the whole campaign was with resources always being the driver.

 HPI: And what Rokita and Messer’s resources were.

 Braun: They were each at $2.5 million from their declared congressional accounts. That is an intimidating amount of money. In early February, we had been on the air in November, December and January and I had done well in fundraising early. I put some of my own skin in the game. In early February, we were at 24%, Todd Rokita was at 20% and Luke Messer at 14%. Obviously, Todd’s negative work against Luke had taken a toll. Our rising from 7% to 24% was taken out of each of their pots, and the undecideds started to commit. There were 42% undecided. The most recent poll taken, about a week ago, had me rising to 30%, Todd Rokita was at 21% and Luke Messer at 16%. And they both had been on the air a little bit, and his PAC was kicking in, but it showed unbelievable movement in my direction. It was better than what we thought we’d be. Our message is resonating. That early acrimony between the two of them set the stage for people not certain how to take it, disappointed it wasn’t more about what you’re going to do, what are your accomplishments, what are your ideas and that has kind of set the early dynamic. We came in, got the message out early, basically had the airspace to ourselves for four months.

HPI: I am shocked they let you fill that vacuum. How many gross rating points did you have?
 
Joshua Kelley (Braun campaign aide): About 3,000, depending when exactly they got up. We were on our fourth flight statewide by the time they went up.

 HPI: They let you in the game.

 Braun: You know why I think they did? Because their fourth quarter fundraising numbers were so
weak, about 40% off. I think they each ended up with about $450,000 and were hoping to be $700,000 or $750,000. That was a bad omen for the rest of the campaign. Because here’s what happened: It was known I was going to make a serious effort. It wasn’t going to be a whim. I was going to back it up with points where you can see this was going forward. Their contributions, even though they weren’t coming my way, weren’t coming their way.

My personal take is Rokita has really bombed things skipping out on the Indianapolis April 30th debate. Not so much the debate itself, but the impression it's given that he runs away from being challenged. Braun has gotten a lot of name recognition for a state representative vs. the 2 federal Congressmen from running ads a long time unchallenged by the other two.

I'll be attending the April 23rd debate. Don't know who I'll vote for yet but it definitely won't be Rokita (so Braun or Messer). Rokita winning the primary would be the best news for Donnelly's reelection campaign in my opinion.
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« Reply #191 on: March 30, 2018, 10:56:48 am »

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

Yes, good article.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

Major props, Mark.
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« Reply #192 on: March 30, 2018, 12:00:17 pm »

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

Yes, good article.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

Major props, Mark.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #193 on: April 04, 2018, 08:17:43 am »

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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« Reply #194 on: April 04, 2018, 10:30:36 am »

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #195 on: April 04, 2018, 11:29:05 am »

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.
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« Reply #196 on: April 04, 2018, 11:57:06 am »

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.

Yeah, I think on paper, Braun's the strongest candidate. Maybe they're concerned with his demeanor (I haven't seen the debate(s) admittedly, so i don't have a handle on his speaking style) but it's honestly pretty hard to imagine either of the two Reps being any more energizing for both of the two disparate Republican wings in Indiana.

My sneaking suspicion is one of two things: 1) as a quote-unquote proud outsider, Republicans may believe Braun could be a headache for McConnell; or 2) they've got damaging oppo on Braun that the Reps haven't yet found or they hear that Donnelly has but is saving for the general if Braun scores the nom.

Like I said, on paper and based on what we know now, Braun is a really good candidate. The only way that changes is if there's something that isn't captured in public information, which I would guess is damaging oppo.
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« Reply #197 on: April 05, 2018, 09:11:10 am »
« Edited: April 05, 2018, 09:15:54 am by StateBoiler »

Braun riled things up when it became clear he was going to enter. Everyone expected a straight up Rokita vs. Messer fight more or less.

I think Braun's presence in the race hurts Messer more than Rokita.

I'm not privy to the thoughts of "Indiana Republican officiants", but the other two rail on Washington insiders, and Braun points out "you guys have been in government for years". His cardboard cutout ad on the two of them is a stroke of genius if you haven't seen it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSUIqBhU-WU

Quote
My sneaking suspicion is one of two things: 1) as a quote-unquote proud outsider, Republicans may believe Braun could be a headache for McConnell; or 2) they've got damaging oppo on Braun that the Reps haven't yet found or they hear that Donnelly has but is saving for the general if Braun scores the nom.

1. Rokita is running as if he'd be more a headache for McConnell.

2. It's out in the open and has been since late last year I think, but Braun voted in Democratic primaries until 2012 I think the year was. Braun has said "where I'm from, the Democrats always won; to have real influence as a voter I had to vote as a Democrat".
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #198 on: April 05, 2018, 09:30:30 am »
« Edited: April 05, 2018, 09:41:01 am by StateBoiler »

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.

Ironically, Pete Visclosky, Democrat representative in Congress from Lake County, is full on board with the tariffs. Jackie Walorski, Republican representative in Congress from next door in northern Indiana (where a lot of RV manufacturing is done, in addition to farming), is against it.

I do wonder how many voters though are actually impacted by tariffs on farming. There's been a lot of consolidation of the small family farms. There's still family farmers, but they're larger operations now acreage-wise, which means there's less of them as a percentage of overall voters.

That said, I don't expect Lake County Democrats to vote for the Republican, or a lot of Walorski's constituents to vote for Donnelly. Tariffs would hurt Braun's business, so not sure he'd be for it. Watched the economic debate a week or so ago, and I think he was against it. This hand grenade the president threw doesn't really fit on left-vs-right lines. Union voters for example are probably a majority for them. Due to my line of work, I'm not pro-tariff. I am more pro-stopping countries from intentionally undervaluing their currency than anything (which the entire tariff conversation is a reaction to, of course the media and no one else are near smart enough on the issue to talk about that). This is more just an example of how Bretton Woods II is failing and we need a Bretton Woods III.

WIBC recap of the 1st debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpOsDErRx_s
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« Reply #199 on: April 05, 2018, 01:43:17 pm »

https://apnews.com/amp/aaeb92bec9c2430ea6b23c85fab84948

Rokita used to be a Never-Trumper. Messer isn't gonna let him off the hook for it.
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