IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

I think Messer is without question

They're both worse than Braun at the moment, but I tend to view Rokita as more likely to underperform in Indianapolis and Fort Wayne and their suburbs.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

I think Messer is without question

They're both worse than Braun at the moment, but I tend to view Rokita as more likely to underperform in Indianapolis and Fort Wayne and their suburbs.

After seeing Saccone and Gillespie go down in flames in the burbs, I’m not sure it matters who Republicans run. Their perceived difference in appeal in the suburbs will be negligible. Messe rwould be a much easier opponent to paint as an out of touch asshole DC elite in the rural areas.

Ya know what, that's plausible. Donnelly has decent rural / working class credibility and LM's weaknesses there could have an impact. That said, it'd probably wash with TR's weaknesses with the Mitch Danielses / suburbia republicans of the IN GOP.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

I think Messer is without question

They're both worse than Braun at the moment, but I tend to view Rokita as more likely to underperform in Indianapolis and Fort Wayne and their suburbs.

After seeing Saccone and Gillespie go down in flames in the burbs, I’m not sure it matters who Republicans run. Their perceived difference in appeal in the suburbs will be negligible. Messe rwould be a much easier opponent to paint as an out of touch asshole DC elite in the rural areas.

I think people aren't realizing that most Trump approvers are voting for republicans and most Trump disapprovers are voting democrat. Doubly so in federal races.

Conor Lamb got 5% of Trump approvers and Rick Saccone got 3% of Trump disapprovers. Very little crossover. And Lamb did a ton to distance himself from the national dem party.

The good news for these democrats in heavy Trump states is that Trump's approval has plummeted in a lot of them.

[BuckeyeNut]

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.

It's also worth noting that Donnelly was always competitive against Mourdock, even before the rape comments, which were made in October. Polling showed Donnelly and Mourdock tied in March and then again in May. Mourdock then held a 2% lead over Donnelly in July and August, Donnelly took a 2% lead in September -- before the rape comments -- and then was tied or at least 3% ahead from post-Mourdock's incredible blunder. One poll even showed him 11% ahead in October.

[Sestak]

Why is the title of this board still "Messer deciding by May"?

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.

Wouldn't surprise me if Donnelly exceeded his '12 performance in the county.

[Hoosier_Nick]

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.

Wouldn't surprise me if Donnelly exceeded his '12 performance in the county.

I don't think Donnelly can win Hamilton, but it wouldn't surprise me if the county was within 10 points. It is diversifying, has very high education rates and is becoming more young, three great trends for Democrats. I've done some canvassing there and there are a *lot* of former Republicans willing to vote for Donnelly or another Democrat. Again, I know it's anecdotal, but I genuinely think that Donnelly could be competitive there.

And I'm very undecided on who would be the strongest candidate. If I had to say, I'd probably go with Braun>Messer>Rokita, though marginally. Although Braun has the residency issues and won't be as good of a fundraiser, he doesn't have the massive residency issue of Messer and isn't ridiculously gaffe-prone like Rokita. And as previously noted, Rokita would be a really weak candidate in areas like Hamilton County.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.

Wouldn't surprise me if Donnelly exceeded his '12 performance in the county.

I don't think Donnelly can win Hamilton, but it wouldn't surprise me if the county was within 10 points. It is diversifying, has very high education rates and is becoming more young, three great trends for Democrats. I've done some canvassing there and there are a *lot* of former Republicans willing to vote for Donnelly or another Democrat. Again, I know it's anecdotal, but I genuinely think that Donnelly could be competitive there.

And I'm very undecided on who would be the strongest candidate. If I had to say, I'd probably go with Braun>Messer>Rokita, though marginally. Although Braun has the residency issues and won't be as good of a fundraiser, he doesn't have the massive residency issue of Messer and isn't ridiculously gaffe-prone like Rokita. And as previously noted, Rokita would be a really weak candidate in areas like Hamilton County.

Depending on the nominee (*cough* Rokita *cough*), Hamilton could also see a disproportionately high share of third-party votes, as it did in '16-PRES. Something like 7-7.5% of voters there voted third party in the presidential election, which is just about double the share of voters who voted third party in the gubernatorial race. Roughly 4.4% voted third party in the Senate race. Braun and Messer would probably bring home those conservative third party protest voters moreso than Rokita in Hamilton County and wouldn't shed as many to Donnelly.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Hamilton is within 10 points, would that be a result of a very tight election, or potential third-party split? If it’s the former, and Republicans put up Rosita, it seems like Donnelly could maybe when I plurality in the county.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

If Hamilton is within 10 points, would that be a result of a very tight election, or potential third-party split? If it’s the former, and Republicans put up Rosita, it seems like Donnelly could maybe when I plurality in the county.

I lived in Hamilton for 15 years. It's not going for Donnelly this year, even with high third party turnout. Honestly, Donnelly's best realistic case is something like 42 Donnelly / 52 Rokita / 6% Libertarian. Maaaaaybe 45/49/6 in a blue tsunami and with low R turnout and high third party. And that's taking into consideration suburbs swings in PA-18, Virginia, GA-06,15 etc.

 As Nick mentioned above, there are demographic changes - it's getting younger and it's very well educated. But it's been a republican stronghold for decades and it's my personal opinion that there's a lot of inertia there for the older voters in the county.

[StateBoiler]

Braun internal polling released, per Howey Politics' weekly newsletter:

Braun 30%, Rokita 21%, Messer 16%, Undecided 33%

https://howeypolitics.com/Files/HPI180329-4b1dfd469e4c45af977734e4ba515529.pdf

Interview of race's history, per Braun:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My personal take is Rokita has really bombed things skipping out on the Indianapolis April 30th debate. Not so much the debate itself, but the impression it's given that he runs away from being challenged. Braun has gotten a lot of name recognition for a state representative vs. the 2 federal Congressmen from running ads a long time unchallenged by the other two.

I'll be attending the April 23rd debate. Don't know who I'll vote for yet but it definitely won't be Rokita (so Braun or Messer). Rokita winning the primary would be the best news for Donnelly's reelection campaign in my opinion.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

Yes, good article.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

Major props, Mark.

[KingSweden]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

Yes, good article.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

Major props, Mark.

[BuckeyeNut]

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[KingSweden]

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

[BuckeyeNut]

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.

Yeah, I think on paper, Braun's the strongest candidate. Maybe they're concerned with his demeanor (I haven't seen the debate(s) admittedly, so i don't have a handle on his speaking style) but it's honestly pretty hard to imagine either of the two Reps being any more energizing for both of the two disparate Republican wings in Indiana.

My sneaking suspicion is one of two things: 1) as a quote-unquote proud outsider, Republicans may believe Braun could be a headache for McConnell; or 2) they've got damaging oppo on Braun that the Reps haven't yet found or they hear that Donnelly has but is saving for the general if Braun scores the nom.

Like I said, on paper and based on what we know now, Braun is a really good candidate. The only way that changes is if there's something that isn't captured in public information, which I would guess is damaging oppo.

[StateBoiler]

Braun riled things up when it became clear he was going to enter. Everyone expected a straight up Rokita vs. Messer fight more or less.

I think Braun's presence in the race hurts Messer more than Rokita.

I'm not privy to the thoughts of "Indiana Republican officiants", but the other two rail on Washington insiders, and Braun points out "you guys have been in government for years". His cardboard cutout ad on the two of them is a stroke of genius if you haven't seen it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSUIqBhU-WU

You must be logged in to read this quote.

1. Rokita is running as if he'd be more a headache for McConnell.

2. It's out in the open and has been since late last year I think, but Braun voted in Democratic primaries until 2012 I think the year was. Braun has said "where I'm from, the Democrats always won; to have real influence as a voter I had to vote as a Democrat".

[StateBoiler]

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.

Ironically, Pete Visclosky, Democrat representative in Congress from Lake County, is full on board with the tariffs. Jackie Walorski, Republican representative in Congress from next door in northern Indiana (where a lot of RV manufacturing is done, in addition to farming), is against it.

I do wonder how many voters though are actually impacted by tariffs on farming. There's been a lot of consolidation of the small family farms. There's still family farmers, but they're larger operations now acreage-wise, which means there's less of them as a percentage of overall voters.

That said, I don't expect Lake County Democrats to vote for the Republican, or a lot of Walorski's constituents to vote for Donnelly. Tariffs would hurt Braun's business, so not sure he'd be for it. Watched the economic debate a week or so ago, and I think he was against it. This hand grenade the president threw doesn't really fit on left-vs-right lines. Union voters for example are probably a majority for them. Due to my line of work, I'm not pro-tariff. I am more pro-stopping countries from intentionally undervaluing their currency than anything (which the entire tariff conversation is a reaction to, of course the media and no one else are near smart enough on the issue to talk about that). This is more just an example of how Bretton Woods II is failing and we need a Bretton Woods III.

WIBC recap of the 1st debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpOsDErRx_s

[PragmaticPopulist]

https://apnews.com/amp/aaeb92bec9c2430ea6b23c85fab84948

Rokita used to be a Never-Trumper. Messer isn't gonna let him off the hook for it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://apnews.com/amp/aaeb92bec9c2430ea6b23c85fab84948

Rokita used to be a Never-Trumper. Messer isn't gonna let him off the hook for it.

This primary is such a sh!tshow.

I think Braun will win because of the ad he did comparing the two. Rotika and Messer are just flinging poop at each other. This primary could look like Russ Feingold's primary win.

[StateBoiler]

https://apnews.com/amp/aaeb92bec9c2430ea6b23c85fab84948

Rokita used to be a Never-Trumper. Messer isn't gonna let him off the hook for it.

This primary is such a sh!tshow.

Eh, not really, that's just politics. The first debate between the 3 was very civil.

[KingSweden]

https://apnews.com/amp/aaeb92bec9c2430ea6b23c85fab84948

Rokita used to be a Never-Trumper. Messer isn't gonna let him off the hook for it.

This primary is such a sh!tshow.

Eh, not really, that's just politics. The first debate between the 3 was very civil.

Who do you prefer, out of curiosity?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://apnews.com/amp/aaeb92bec9c2430ea6b23c85fab84948

Rokita used to be a Never-Trumper. Messer isn't gonna let him off the hook for it.

This primary is such a sh!tshow.

Eh, not really, that's just politics. The first debate between the 3 was very civil.

Rotika's 30 second dogwhistle primary ad is one of the worst ads I've ever seen.