IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[MT Treasurer]

Really, what the hell is so bad about Messer? He's way better than Lil' Marlin, and of the Indiana Republican Congressmen, he's the closest (personally) to Pence, who's VP. He should beat Donnelly, especially after all that happened last year.

He strikes me as the typical condescending Republican who you can't help but dislike (a Rick Berg, if you will). I'm worried that he could be labeled "out of touch", especially against "good ol' Hoosier Joe ".

But yeah, I agree that he will most likely beat Donnelly. Bayh's landslide loss (this is a man who won basically all of his previous elections with at least 60% of the vote) was completely unexpected and is not a good sign for Donnelly, to say the least.

[MT Treasurer]

Anonymous Senator in a state that favors the other party who only won because his opponent in his first race imploded and who we're told shouldn't be underestimated because he's a moderate and he's likely to face a mediocre opponent. Sounds familiar...

Bayh, one of the most popular IN politicians ever, was literally considered unbeatable and up by like 30 points when he entered the race. The fact that he lost by such a blowout on election day isn't exactly encouraging news for Donnelly, to say the least.

[MT Treasurer]

Anonymous Senator in a state that favors the other party who only won because his opponent in his first race imploded and who we're told shouldn't be underestimated because he's a moderate and he's likely to face a mediocre opponent. Sounds familiar...

....I don't think I follow. Pryor? Blanche? Um... Begich? Udall? Kirk? Help me out here plz

I'm not too sure, but I can try to help you: It sounds like he's talking about a male Senator (his, he) who served only one term. Udall is far from a moderate and if anything, Colorado favors Democrats.
I think he's talking about Begich.

Using Begich to argue that Donnelly will lose is pretty silly, considering that Begich came close to winning in a very Republican year.

I wasn't talking about Begich but rather about the former Senator from the state that neighbors Indiana. I'm not saying Donnelly will lose that badly, though, I just think there are some interesting similarities here.

[MT Treasurer]

^^Cheri Bustos? Lisa Madigan? I remember a lot of Democrats worrying in 2014/15 that Duckworth might blow it.

[MT Treasurer]

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https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/849748770157973504

[MT Treasurer]

Howey's take on the race, he thinks it's Lean Democrat

I agree with some of his points, honestly. Donnelly will probably be up by a lot in the first public polls.

[MT Treasurer]

Oh I definitely agree with this sentiment.

Regarding MT, I think it's a bit too early to have any feelings about the outcome of the race.

Oh, sure. I won't feel 100% confident about Republican chances here until I see the checkmark next to the Republican candidate's name. I definitely believe it's a Tossup, though (even if early polling will indicate otherwise)

[MT Treasurer]

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Link.

[MT Treasurer]

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Link.

This poll has been released, btw:

Holcomb approval: 51/13 (+38)
Trump approval: 41/45 (-4)
Pence approval: 50/37 (+13)

Joe Donnelly

25% Have heard of him/Good chance that I will vote for him
23% Have heard of him/Some chance that I will vote for him
16% Have heard of him/No chance that I will vote him
16% Have heard of him/ Don’t know if would vote for him
19% Have not heard of him

Luke Messer

8% Have heard of him/Good chance that I will vote for him
12% Have heard of him/Some chance that I will vote for him
9% Have heard of him/No chance that I will vote him
9% Have heard of him/ Don’t know if would vote for him
59% Have not heard of him

Todd Rokita

11% Have heard of him/Good chance that I will vote for him
9% Have heard of him/Some chance that I will vote for him
10% Have heard of him/No chance that I will vote him
9% Have heard of him/ Don’t know if would vote for him
60% Have not heard of him

[MT Treasurer]

The IN GOP giving the MO GOP a run for its money, lol.

[MT Treasurer]

Nelson & Donnelly as far as we know will vote NO.

And Tester too.

https://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/montana-sen-jon-tester-will-vote-against-kavanaugh-confirmation/article_fc3364f3-001b-5b3d-a56d-2e2894b3f409.html

Tester was always going to vote NO, even before the allegations, lol.

[MT Treasurer]

Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.

Maybe not, but it’s all about base turnout.

[MT Treasurer]

Write in Stutzman

Joe Donnelly approves of this message.

[MT Treasurer]

The fact that I had to go back to page seven on this board to find this thread says a lot about this race.  No one is talking about it.  I really get the feeling there is no enthusiasm at all for Braun; which leaves Donnelly is a good position as Democrats are motivated to turn out this season no matter what.

The lack of quality polling does have me uneasy on this race though.

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Edit:

I've dug through a lot of the crosstabs on the polls and they don't really give me a lot of faith in Donnelly.

He's averaging well under 45% in most of the polls and I don't really see why there would be a late break for him, but can see a million reasons why late deciders who just go from Braun with Trump's approval rebounding at the end of the cycle.

Yeah, Donnelly could certainly win in a big Democratic wave, but I doubt he survives even a slight GOP overperformance, and I don’t get why people think he’s underrated or that the race is Lean D (or Likely D, if you trust 538's "model"). A Braun win would hardly be an upset.

[MT Treasurer]

Bayh-bayh, baby!