IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[libertpaulian]

So, Messer's in...

...does this mean we'll be hearing from John Morgan in FL soon?

[libertpaulian]

A few thoughts: 1) it's awful for Rokita that his name recognition is 41% and within the margin of error with Messer. The former was Secretary of State for 8 years in Indiana and should have a higher name recognition than he currently does. I still think the primary favors Messer. 2) Donnelly at 48 with leaners is a good sign for him, especially with only 16% conclusively saying they won't vote for him. 3) Holcomb is already safe R in 2020. Challenging him would be a suicide mission (hint, hint, Buttigeg. Don't run yet, wait for it to be open in '24).

Pete should definitely wait until 2024.  Assuming the GOP wins in 2020, 2024 will be a blue typhoon that will make 2008 look like child's play.  That would be Pete's time to shine.

[libertpaulian]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

[libertpaulian]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

[libertpaulian]

just gonna drop this here...
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1odR1vw2PmB2oArwqKL0dl1cJrEGB0tiE
Donnelly +12? My first thought was: “YES,” but this can’t be true, can it? Already with a majority?

Flawed poll.  Check the crosstabs.

[libertpaulian]

JOE +6!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[libertpaulian]

Reminder that the margin narrows as the Libertarian (who will surely get votes) is put into the equation. This is by no means over. Senator Evan Bayh would like to say hi.

The difference is that Bayh started out in the polls as the victor but ended up as the underdog closer to the end.

Here, Donnelly started out as the underdog but seems to be climbing back up.

[libertpaulian]

I guess the INGOP was so scared sh**tless after the Mourdock fiasco that they decided to go from being too brash and flamboyant to being too uninspiring and boring.

[libertpaulian]

Why do the Libertarians often do so well in Indiana? I scoffed at the Lib candidate getting 8% in this poll. But I noticed they've gotten over 5% in each of the last three IN Senate races.  So it's not totally implausible.

This is a good question. Indiana isn't exactly a state you'd expect to be libertarian friendly, but they consistently do oddly well in the Senate races there. It also seems confined to the Senate races for some reason, they usually get a much lower number in the gubernatorial races.

Maybe our resident Indiana libertarian can answer this?

The Indiana Libertarian Party has a very strong presence on social media, and they tend to do very well with outreach given their limited funds as a third party.  The candidates they run don't tend to be the pot-smoking anarchist types who make videos in their underwear talking about how seatbelt laws are equivalent to Hitler or Jim Crow.  I mean, you have SOME like that, but IN libertarians for the most part tend to articulate the Party's message very well.  The INLP candidate for Secretary of State, for example, is a casual friend of mine.  He's a retired attorney from a mid-sized Downtown Indianapolis law firm.  Very far removed from the libertarian stereotype.

[libertpaulian]

Donnelly is a NAY on Kavanaugh.

[libertpaulian]

Yikes, this gives Braun an opening. Conservatives love their rapists. Dems just get them kicked out of the Senate.

Senator Richard Mourdock says hi.

[libertpaulian]

The Donelly vote could drive some GOP voters to the polls. This definitely doesn't help him. While the hurt will be minimal, minimal matters in a tossup race.

It will also light up the suburban women and minorities who might have been agnostic about Donnelly or even voting in the mid-term at all.

[libertpaulian]

The Donelly vote could drive some GOP voters to the polls. This definitely doesn't help him. While the hurt will be minimal, minimal matters in a tossup race.

So has Donnelly already confirmed that he will vote against Kavanaugh?

He said he's a NAY until there's further FBI investigations into the allegations.  He said based on what's going on now, he couldn't vote for him.

[libertpaulian]

Write in Stutzman

Write-in votes aren't allowed here.

[libertpaulian]

Write in Stutzman

Write-in votes aren't allowed here.

I know. I’m a Hoosier too. The L-NC is still up because I’m thinking of my friends down there who have been dealing with the aftermath of Florence. I still would rather have Stutzman than Braun or Silent Joe hence my expression.

I'm voting for Joe solely due to dissatisfaction with Trump, not to mention Boring Braun hasn't given me a reason to vote for him.

[libertpaulian]

Write in Stutzman

Write-in votes aren't allowed here.

I know. I’m a Hoosier too. The L-NC is still up because I’m thinking of my friends down there who have been dealing with the aftermath of Florence. I still would rather have Stutzman than Braun or Silent Joe hence my expression.

I'm voting for Joe solely due to dissatisfaction with Trump, not to mention Boring Braun hasn't given me a reason to vote for him.

Why not the libertarian? I can’t vote Donnelly on principle.

I love Lucy (pardon the pun, lol), but Trump is too out of control and needs to be held accountable.

[libertpaulian]

Apparently, Senator Donnelly is getting a surprising number of supportive or neutral comments from constituents on social media.

[libertpaulian]

Debate night tonight!  Who's watching?

[libertpaulian]

Marist: Joe up by 2

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/indiana-senate-race-poll-democrat-joe-donnelly-leads-republican-mike-braun.html

FAUX News: Joe up by 7 (!!!!)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-indiana-senate-poll-10-31-2018

If Donnelly manages to win IN-05, that bodes VERY well for Danny O'Connor in OH-12, IMO.

The other thing about IN-05 is that it includes quite a bit of Northern Marion thats full of dem voters and AAs.

Yes, and it's also one of those ancestrally Republican regions that started trending D in the 90s.

[libertpaulian]

Honestly, the only disappointment from this race is that Howey never conducted a poll.

[libertpaulian]

I early voted today.  It was a 1 hour and 40 minute wait.  Took about 10 minutes to show ID, wait for a booth to open, and vote. 

Vote for Joe, of course. 

The crowd looked to be a decent mix of old, young, and in the middle.  Largely white but also a significant minority presence.  Lots of women, too.

Per one of the poll workers, about 4600 people have voted since early voting began at this particular early voting site.

[libertpaulian]

I early voted today.  It was a 1 hour and 40 minute wait.  Took about 10 minutes to show ID, wait for a booth to open, and vote.  

Vote for Joe, of course.  

The crowd looked to be a decent mix of old, young, and in the middle.  Largely white but also a significant minority presence.  Lots of women, too.

Per one of the poll workers, about 4600 people have voted since early voting began at this particular early voting site.

Obviously this is an area Donnelly needs to clean up in, correct?

Yes.  Lake County is historically the most Democratic county in the state (although it trended slightly R in 2016 due to Trump's message and Marion surpassed it), with Gary, Hammond, and East Chicago being the county's core Democratic micro-cities.  I live in Munster, a well-off suburban town that trended toward Hillary in 2016.

Just to clarify: That's 4600 people at this particular site, not in the entire county.  The poll worker said lines have been this long every day since the beginning.

[libertpaulian]

BTW, I know this isn't exactly about the IN-SEN race, but it's somewhat related to it.  There's an Indiana state senate race on Tuesday.  This seat in particular is currently held by an entrenched incumbent, Mike Delph, who is one of the architects of the controversial state RFRA law.  He's being challenged by openly gay Democrat JD Ford.  Think of it as the Midwestern version of Bob Marshall vs. Danica Roem.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/01/delph-faces-election-rematch-swing-district/1744133002/?fbclid=IwAR0BtIfagQTe52UkRPsimugCCIryRHNn6qIcnvEGfemN78fBKsyJcC1Y8vg

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The race is considered a dead heat.  Given how ancestrally R this district is and the closeness of the race, I think this race may prove to be a bellwether of the US Senate race.  If Ford either wins or comes very close to defeating Delph, then I think Donnelly is having a good night and is likely having a coattail effect on these downballot candidates.

Any thoughts?

[libertpaulian]

snip

Thanks for posting this, I will definitely be watching this one on Tuesday. One of the most satisfying things in life is to see anti-LGBT a-holes lose elections to LGBT candidates.

Yeah, Danica Roem beating Bob Marshall was the highlight of the night for me last year.  Let's hope Ford has similar success!

But do you think that my view is a typical Atlas #hottake?  Or is there some truth that this state senate race could be a bellwether for the Donnelly one? 

[libertpaulian]

snip

Thanks for posting this, I will definitely be watching this one on Tuesday. One of the most satisfying things in life is to see anti-LGBT a-holes lose elections to LGBT candidates.

Yeah, Danica Roem beating Bob Marshall was the highlight of the night for me last year.  Let's hope Ford has similar success!

But do you think that my view is a typical Atlas #hottake?  Or is there some truth that this state senate race could be a bellwether for the Donnelly one? 

Didn’t this district vote for Clinton? If so, I don’t really think it tells us much about Indiana as a whole

I'm not sure if we have 2016 presidential breakdowns by state senate district.