IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[Bismarck]

Seems like it's shaping up to be a Messer vs Rokita primary. I think Messer would get more national support and he is way more likeable, although Rokita might be better known because he has won statewide races in the past. Ideologically they are pretty similar, both solidly conservative but neither is a radical, Rokita might be slightly more likely to align with the tea party than Messer who quickly rose in the house ranks. I like Messer and think Rokita is horrible.

[Bismarck]

Why did Lugar lose so badly, and why did Stutzman lose so badly?

Lugar was perceived as out of touch and Lugar didn't really do much to change that perception.

Stutzman ran against someone just about as conservative as he was in Todd Young, except way more electable. Also, Indiana Republicans learned the hard way with Mourdock not to just elect "muh conservative" candidate.

Agreed about Lugar. Young had way more money and establishment support, when Holcomb dropped out basically all of his supporters and donors went to Young. Stutzman also hurt himself by failing in an attempt to take Young off the ballot which angered many republicans. Agreed that Stutzman was also hurt by the recent defeat of Mourdock, Indiana GOP didn't want to nominate another far right loser. Young is conservative but more pragmatic.

[Bismarck]

Penelopegate in Indiana? http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/messer-defends-wifes-contract-city

I doubt it will sink a Messer candidacy but it could pose trouble down the line.

Rokita put this out there. Hopefully it doesn't hurt Messer, he would be a way better senator than Rokita.

[Bismarck]

As someone who doesn't know much about Indiana politics, is this good news or bad news for Donnelly?

Bad news for Donnelly provided he can find a way to get past the residency issue which is huge in Indiana. Messer is the strongest of the three candidates who have been realistically looking at running (along with Rokita and Curtis Hill). He will have strength in the primary as well because he has the backing of the Pence people and at least some of Todd Young's circle, which will help him get donors on board. Curtis Hill is too unknown despite his landslide record breaking victory, and Rokita is slimy and prone to making minor gaffes.

[Bismarck]

Hot take: Messer is more likely to lose the general than Rokita.

Agreed.

Eh I would say they are pretty equal. Neither veers much from the conservative orthodoxy although Romina is more aligned with the tea party and Messer is more establishment. Both have been described as libertarian republicans, although to this day I can't figure out why.  Messer is rather bland and Rokita is less bland but is pretty unlikeable. Rokita has been elected to statewide office but both have pretty low name recognition. I'm rooting for Messer, I think he and Young would make a good senate team. Messer seems a tad bit more pragmatic than Rokita, although both are to the right of Young.

[Bismarck]

Young had a rough primary with Stutzman in 2016 and it didn't stop him from beating the most successful democratic politician of the last half century in Indiana in a ten point landslide.

[Bismarck]

Donnelly's all steak and no sizzle. He's inoffensive and a very solid senator. If this was a Clinton midterm he'd be severely disadvantaged, but in Trump's midterm I think he's got an advantage.

I think, in general, he's very similar to Rob Portman, in the lack of glitz and focus on being a good fit for the state.

Basically this. Hoosiers prefer republicans but will vote for a "good" democrat over a "meh" republican. Nobody hates Joe Donnelly. I think tossup is more accurate though with a very slight edge to Donnelly.

[Bismarck]

Donnelly's all steak and no sizzle. He's inoffensive and a very solid senator. If this was a Clinton midterm he'd be severely disadvantaged, but in Trump's midterm I think he's got an advantage.

I think, in general, he's very similar to Rob Portman, in the lack of glitz and focus on being a good fit for the state.

Basically this. Hoosiers prefer republicans but will vote for a "good" democrat over a "meh" republican. Nobody hates Joe Donnelly. I think tossup is more accurate though with a very slight edge to Donnelly.

What do you think a public poll would show right now? Donnelly +12? Too bad that IN, ND, MT and PA all haven't been polled yet.

Wild guess I would say Donnelly +5-10. He is not well known enough to be up by 20+ points.

[Bismarck]

I'm considering moving this from "Toss-up" to "Tilt-D". I think Donnelly has done a great job projecting his moderate positions to the state, while also staying vigilant in the resistance. Also the R-Primary being a complete sh*tshow helps.

Also: http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/former-aides-say-rep-todd-rokita-yelled-staff-docked-pay/624152001/

lol

Rokita is terrible. He's unpleasant to be around.

[Bismarck]

Who wins the primary, Rokita or Messer?

Absolute Tossup until we see some polling. Messer would be my preference. Rokita is probably better known because he has won statewide in the past. Messer will get more establishment backing.

[Bismarck]

A few thoughts: 1) it's awful for Rokita that his name recognition is 41% and within the margin of error with Messer. The former was Secretary of State for 8 years in Indiana and should have a higher name recognition than he currently does. I still think the primary favors Messer. 2) Donnelly at 48 with leaners is a good sign for him, especially with only 16% conclusively saying they won't vote for him. 3) Holcomb is already safe R in 2020. Challenging him would be a suicide mission (hint, hint, Buttigeg. Don't run yet, wait for it to be open in '24).

Pete should definitely wait until 2024.  Assuming the GOP wins in 2020, 2024 will be a blue typhoon that will make 2008 look like child's play.  That would be Pete's time to shine.

I'm rooting for Suzanne Crouch in 2024, but it might be tough to hold that office for 24 years.

[Bismarck]

Forgot to post this:

https://www.wthr.com/article/indiana-senate-candidate-mike-braun-fired-white-nationalist-aide

A Republican pol with honesty and integrity when it comes to the new-gen Neo-Nazis? Goddamn. Yeah, Donnelly has easily the most to fear from Braun.

I think, probably, Braun just hired some random guy who he didn't know was a White Nationalist, then fired him when he found out. Nothing wrong, but I will say he should probably start vetting his aides.

Oh, that's likely, but my point is that Braun is the sort of principled candidate that Donnelly needs to fear - the type that won't depress turnout among any Republican bloc except the hardcore deplorables who actually like white nationalists.

You act as if rejecting white nationalism is a winning strategy in a GOP primary. Strange.

Edgy. But it is in Indiana, evidently. Pence aside, Indianans seem to prefer principled, mainstream conservatives like Young, Daniels, and Holcomb. It's why I highly doubt Rokita is going to be the nominee in any case (that and the fact that he's an aggressive asshole).

How silly of you. That means Rokita is the prohibitive favorite in the GOP primary.

Tell that to Marlin Stutzman.

Tell that to Richard Lugar.

Actually I think the memory of the lugar mourdock race helped Young in 2016, a lot of GOP primary voters realized they blew an easy win and didn’t want to repeat the mistake. I’m not sure if that will carry over into 2018, but there is a solid base of mainstream republicans that has retained more power in Indiana than in other states. Also as a side note, “Indianans” is incorrect and makes folks from here cringe. The correct term for a person from Indiana is a Hoosier.

[Bismarck]

https://twitter.com/indgop/status/952253852484554752

Messer wins the strawpoll at the GOP meeting. About the result I'd expect looking at the Messer/Rokita/Braun ratio.

Good result. Won’t matter much but it should be a good signal to GOP donors that Messer is their man.

[Bismarck]

Here are two of Braun’s. The immigration one is on tv now. I’m not sure if messer has a spot up yet or not. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OKCbQ5UFgbY
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VXuwIZEVmFM

[Bismarck]

Here is the first debate if anyone’s interested. Messer is the sensible one but is afraid to say that so he tries to justify his less extremist positions like voting to not shutdown the government as what Trump wanted. Rokita might be the strongest debator but he was full of attack’s and in general is not a very nice guy. Braun was pretty rambly, and avoided taking clear positions.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rXcrhC1r8UY

[Bismarck]

Isn't trump below water in Indiana? running as Pro-trump might hurt him more than its going to help him

Trump is barely underwater but certainly is not among GOP primary voters.

[Bismarck]

I’m going to vote for Braun later today. I think he has broad appeal and despite the eye roll outsider schtick seems like a pretty decent guy. State Boiler do you know if the most recent debate can be accessed somewhere?
My prediction is Braun 40, Rokita 35, Messer 25.