IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[BuckeyeNut]

Someone other than Messer could still get in. Like Stutzman. Or maybe Ballard.

[BuckeyeNut]

Really, what the hell is so bad about Messer? He's way better than Lil' Marlin, and of the Indiana Republican Congressmen, he's the closest (personally) to Pence, who's VP. He should beat Donnelly, especially after all that happened last year.

It's almost like they represented the same district... I think people are underestimating how unpopular Pence was in Indiana. Yes, yes, Trump and Pence swept Indiana, but Gregg was in line to take Pence down. Clinton and Bayh, were a major drag.

[BuckeyeNut]

There was no way Donnelly wasn't in trouble come re-elect. It may not win him supporters among Indiana Republicans, but joining the airport protests back when the travel ban was announced shows he's awake, which is more than I think could be said for much of his time in office. (Also curious how the travel ban plays in Indiana. RFRA was unpopular because it went against Hoosier hospitality.)

If he plays up his Catholic roots through his relatively pro-life positions, it's not entirely impossible he makes it through in a squeaker.

[BuckeyeNut]

Unsure if it has been mentioned here, but Donnelly's CM was announced some time ago to be Peter Hanscom, fresh off of two losses as Evan Bayh's CM and Hillary Clinton's Indiana State Director for the primary.

That sure is discomforting.

[BuckeyeNut]

Another hideous Indiana GOP Senate primary? Yes, please.

[BuckeyeNut]

Messer says he will make an official decision “in the next couple months.” It does sound like both he and Rokita will run though. Rokita is expected to announce in the early summer. AG Curtis Hill and State Rep. Mike Braun are also looking at a potential run.

http://cbs4indy.com/2017/05/31/television-ads-hint-at-whats-to-come-for-indianas-2018-u-s-senate-race/
http://howeypolitics.com/Files/HPI170525.pdf#page=10

Beautiful. I hope this is a dumpster fire.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/887372526036422657

Not sure what Messer was thinking moving out of Indiana consider how much hay was made about Bayh's residency. Could be enough for Rokita to be favored.

Very bad look for Messer.

[BuckeyeNut]

I don't really see a problem with that.

The average Hoosier voter isn't going to have a problem with it, either. Atheists on the left might chuckle, but otherwise, it's a big bowl of "meh."

[BuckeyeNut]

Hot take: Messer is more likely to lose the general than Rokita.

Agreed.

Nope.

And frankly, R+1 seems about right. Donnelly might be able to pull it out, but he was basically a warm body in 2012 before Lugar lost his primary. Yeah, Donnelly's been putting in work, but this is going to be uphill and if Messer makes it to the general, which is not a given, he should clean up nice.

[BuckeyeNut]

and so it begins, IN-2012 redux.

WHO WILL BE THE NEW MOURDOCK

Messer should do fine if he makes it through, but Rokita...

I can't over state how much I dislike Messer. I know for a fact Keith Ellison slept in his office when he first got to Congress because he couldn't afford to live in the District. Messer, meanwhile, went out and bought a bunch of $3,000 suits, while the median district of IN-06 is $50,588.

[BuckeyeNut]

Forgot to post this:

https://www.wthr.com/article/indiana-senate-candidate-mike-braun-fired-white-nationalist-aide

A Republican pol with honesty and integrity when it comes to the new-gen Neo-Nazis? Goddamn. Yeah, Donnelly has easily the most to fear from Braun.

I think, probably, Braun just hired some random guy who he didn't know was a White Nationalist, then fired him when he found out. Nothing wrong, but I will say he should probably start vetting his aides.

Oh, that's likely, but my point is that Braun is the sort of principled candidate that Donnelly needs to fear - the type that won't depress turnout among any Republican bloc except the hardcore deplorables who actually like white nationalists.

You act as if rejecting white nationalism is a winning strategy in a GOP primary. Strange.

Edgy. But it is in Indiana, evidently. Pence aside, Indianans seem to prefer principled, mainstream conservatives like Young, Daniels, and Holcomb. It's why I highly doubt Rokita is going to be the nominee in any case (that and the fact that he's an aggressive asshole).

How silly of you. That means Rokita is the prohibitive favorite in the GOP primary.

Tell that to Marlin Stutzman.

Tell that to Richard Lugar.

[BuckeyeNut]

Q4 numbers:

Braun: 2 million (!!!)
Donnelly: 1.2 million
Messer: 430 thousand (!!!)
Rokita: hasn't posted his numbers yet...?

(source) https://howeypolitics.com/

Okay, I'm not sure how Rokita hasn't posted his numbers yet since we're past the filling deadline, but whatever. I know Braun is independently wealthy, but wow. 2 million? And Messer could only muster up 430 thousand? This is a three-way horserace. Definitely one to watch.

Braun is self-financing. 90% of his funds are from himself, and he says he has more on the way. Donnelly and the other Republicans have been relying on traditional fundraising.

Still, that’s unideal. Maybe Donnelly is in more trouble than McCaskill.

[BuckeyeNut]

Q4 numbers:

Braun: 2 million (!!!)
Donnelly: 1.2 million
Messer: 430 thousand (!!!)
Rokita: hasn't posted his numbers yet...?

(source) https://howeypolitics.com/

Okay, I'm not sure how Rokita hasn't posted his numbers yet since we're past the filling deadline, but whatever. I know Braun is independently wealthy, but wow. 2 million? And Messer could only muster up 430 thousand? This is a three-way horserace. Definitely one to watch.

Braun is self-financing. 90% of his funds are from himself, and he says he has more on the way. Donnelly and the other Republicans have been relying on traditional fundraising.

Still, that’s unideal. Maybe Donnelly is in more trouble than McCaskill.

I so agree. I think McCaskill is often underrated as a campaigner and fundraiser. Her win in 2012 was not accidental, whereas Donnelly’s was much less intentional.

I think  McCaskill is an exceptionally talented politician, but have thought she’s the weakest Democrat up this cycle, with Donnelly a close second. That might not quite be the case anymore, but we’ll see. It’s good to know Donnelly still has much more on hand than Braun.

[BuckeyeNut]

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.

It's also worth noting that Donnelly was always competitive against Mourdock, even before the rape comments, which were made in October. Polling showed Donnelly and Mourdock tied in March and then again in May. Mourdock then held a 2% lead over Donnelly in July and August, Donnelly took a 2% lead in September -- before the rape comments -- and then was tied or at least 3% ahead from post-Mourdock's incredible blunder. One poll even showed him 11% ahead in October.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Hamilton is within 10 points, would that be a result of a very tight election, or potential third-party split? If it’s the former, and Republicans put up Rosita, it seems like Donnelly could maybe when I plurality in the county.

[BuckeyeNut]

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[BuckeyeNut]

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.

[BuckeyeNut]

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.

Ironically, Pete Visclosky, Democrat representative in Congress from Lake County, is full on board with the tariffs. Jackie Walorski, Republican representative in Congress from next door in northern Indiana (where a lot of RV manufacturing is done, in addition to farming), is against it.

I do wonder how many voters though are actually impacted by tariffs on farming. There's been a lot of consolidation of the small family farms. There's still family farmers, but they're larger operations now acreage-wise, which means there's less of them as a percentage of overall voters.

That said, I don't expect Lake County Democrats to vote for the Republican, or a lot of Walorski's constituents to vote for Donnelly. Tariffs would hurt Braun's business, so not sure he'd be for it. Watched the economic debate a week or so ago, and I think he was against it. This hand grenade the president threw doesn't really fit on left-vs-right lines. Union voters for example are probably a majority for them. Due to my line of work, I'm not pro-tariff. I am more pro-stopping countries from intentionally undervaluing their currency than anything (which the entire tariff conversation is a reaction to, of course the media and no one else are near smart enough on the issue to talk about that). This is more just an example of how Bretton Woods II is failing and we need a Bretton Woods III.

WIBC recap of the 1st debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpOsDErRx_s

Eh, I wouldn't be so sure. Donnelly was their Congressman for a couple of terms, and he fended off Walorski in '10, and she then went on to narrowly win in '12.

[BuckeyeNut]

Good for Gregg. Hoping he doesn’t run again in ‘20, though. Be nice to put Ritz out on the trail...

[BuckeyeNut]

Still thinking that Braun pulls this off. It'll probably be something like the previous prediction said, about 40-35-25. I really, really hope Rokita wins.

40% Braun, is 35% Rokita, 25% Messer? That’s damn embarrassing for Messer. I know many people who will be glad to see him gone from Congress, but at the cost of another Pence in Congress? Lordy, I don’t know.

[BuckeyeNut]

The biggest hacks on this forum tend to be the people with red or maroon avatars actually LOL

also, I think Donnelly is going down. Braun is getting more and more of the previously undecided voters.

Perhaps they wear Orange avatars as well.

I wonder who you could be talking about.

You have less than 200 posts and are already one of the dumbest members of Atlas. And no, not for playing coy, but sheer hackery. Congrats, that's impressive.