IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am concerned by Donnelly's small haul.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

Ideally there would be something between Joe "Hoosier Common Sense" Donnelly and Ocasio Cortez.

Fair point.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

Ideally there would be something between Joe "Hoosier Common Sense" Donnelly and Ocasio Cortez.

Fair point.

I mean, this being Indiana he obviously can't tact that left. But Donnelly just comes off as so... bland.

I don't want to judge him on his campaign website, but if 'common sense' became a platform then this would be it. It's all about bipartisanship and not stepping on any toes. He talks about education, yet can't even include a line about free community college. Talks about jobs and the economy, and the word 'wage' isn't mentioned once. His healthcare page is all about how he opposed efforts to rollback coverage (great) but also likes to work with Republicans, and not much else. It's all very middle of the road stuff status-quo stuff.

Claire McCaskill's website at least talks about consumer protections and women's well-being. Tester's isn't that great, but he knows how to play locally by including stuff about public lands, and also ties in his commitment to clean ethics with his want to get "dark money out of politics" and overturn Citizens United. They at least put something there to stand out from the crowd, to make some appeal to the base, while Donnelly's only play on progressive issues seems to be "you should be glad I'm not a Republican."

Is there really a left wing base in Indiana?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Besides monroe ofc

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1027917575051796480

Ooh, this is the exact kind of thing that could make a massive difference in such a close race. Let's see how the Donnelly campaign plays their cards here. The blatant hypocrisy isn't a good look for Braun and it could seriously make a huge difference if Donnelly were to capitalize on it.

Oooooh this is helpful...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1027917575051796480

Ooh, this is the exact kind of thing that could make a massive difference in such a close race. Let's see how the Donnelly campaign plays their cards here. The blatant hypocrisy isn't a good look for Braun and it could seriously make a huge difference if Donnelly were to capitalize on it.

This won't make a lick of difference. Donnelly's own brother profited from shipping jobs to Mexico and Donnelly owned shares in that same company. Any attack on Braun will be answered with that so it'll have a net neutral impact. Donnelly is still toast and this doesn't change anything.

Have there been any recent polls from Indiana? I haven't seen any posted here since the one immediately after the primary, that showed Braun with a 1 pt. lead. And what leads you to believe that Donnelly is DOA? At best, I thought this race was a tossup.

there hasnt been any recent polling of the race since the primary, and that poll was done by Gravis. IN and ND have archaic polling laws that make it expensive and worthless, which is why those two states always have terrible polling and terrible results. Heitkamp overpreformed the polls by 7 points, not because she was an excellent candidate, but because the polling in ND was incredibly terrible.

There is currently no way to tell how both races are going, but saying that Donelly is DOA is ridiculous. This information about Braun's company is incredibly useful, and works well to disengage Braun's major attack, the "Mexico Joe" line.

Was the GOP really too dumb to say Mexico Josè?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1027917575051796480

Ooh, this is the exact kind of thing that could make a massive difference in such a close race. Let's see how the Donnelly campaign plays their cards here. The blatant hypocrisy isn't a good look for Braun and it could seriously make a huge difference if Donnelly were to capitalize on it.

This won't make a lick of difference. Donnelly's own brother profited from shipping jobs to Mexico and Donnelly owned shares in that same company. Any attack on Braun will be answered with that so it'll have a net neutral impact. Donnelly is still toast and this doesn't change anything.

Have there been any recent polls from Indiana? I haven't seen any posted here since the one immediately after the primary, that showed Braun with a 1 pt. lead. And what leads you to believe that Donnelly is DOA? At best, I thought this race was a tossup.

there hasnt been any recent polling of the race since the primary, and that poll was done by Gravis. IN and ND have archaic polling laws that make it expensive and worthless, which is why those two states always have terrible polling and terrible results. Heitkamp overpreformed the polls by 7 points, not because she was an excellent candidate, but because the polling in ND was incredibly terrible.

There is currently no way to tell how both races are going, but saying that Donelly is DOA is ridiculous. This information about Braun's company is incredibly useful, and works well to disengage Braun's major attack, the "Mexico Joe" line.

Was the GOP really too dumb to say Mexico Josè?

Yep, heres the ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKbycsMb-f8

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow. Check out Mexico Joe's latest ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=29&v=VmD8fYF4Rzg

It's clear he's down bigly to Mike Braun if he's putting up overtly pro-Trump ads.

Cringe, Manchin has done something similar too, oh well, they have free pass cards to do anything to win, so do what's necessary ma bois.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lmao

https://twitter.com/INDems/status/1037415430212726785

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tilt D—-> Tilt R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The no vote will cause him to lose, I had him at a tossup to narrowly favor to him before that stupid move.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The biggest hacks on this forum tend to be the people with red or maroon avatars actually LOL

also, I think Donnelly is going down. Braun is getting more and more of the previously undecided voters.

Meanwhile live look at the Donnelly Campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZoJZddsSfM

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Goodbye Donnelly, nice knowing you.