IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Rough story from AP on Sen. Donnelly: "AP Exclusive: Senator profits from outsourcing he slams"

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https://apnews.com/6d7d48ba7ae3420982c313192549805f

Bad look, but I'm not sure how much or little voters care about the business practices of a senator's brother.

It's stranger to me that he owns shares valued at 50,000, but received a dividend of between 16,000 and 50,000. That's a pretty high div % relative to the value of the stock.

As for the race itself, this was already a seat that was going to be decided by slim margins. Something like this certainly doesn't help.

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https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/887372526036422657

Not sure what Messer was thinking moving out of Indiana consider how much hay was made about Bayh's residency. Could be enough for Rokita to be favored.

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Hot take: Messer is more likely to lose the general than Rokita.

Agreed.

Eh I would say they are pretty equal. Neither veers much from the conservative orthodoxy although Romina is more aligned with the tea party and Messer is more establishment. Both have been described as libertarian republicans, although to this day I can't figure out why.  Messer is rather bland and Rokita is less bland but is pretty unlikeable. Rokita has been elected to statewide office but both have pretty low name recognition. I'm rooting for Messer, I think he and Young would make a good senate team. Messer seems a tad bit more pragmatic than Rokita, although both are to the right of Young.

Messer seems like he'll get pummeled for living out of state and -separately- working in lobbying in between his time in the Indiana House and the 6th District.

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http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

Yes, good article.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

The cynic in me doesn't believe that strategy could work in today's environment. Regardless, it's an interesting story - thanks!

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Politico on Messer-Rokita: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/15/todd-rokita-luke-messer-indiana-primary-241622

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32% of people who'd heard of Donnelly seems like a bad result for his campaign.

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32% of people who'd heard of Donnelly seems like a bad result for his campaign.

32/70. Which isn't bad because this is basically a generic poll. 47% of New Yorkers say they would vote to reelect Cuomo against an unnnamed opponent, but that number always goes up when an opponent is named

That's reasonable.

 It's not clear to me in this article if respondents are only able to choose one candidate or if they can say there's a good chance they'd vote for more than one candidate. Either way, I look forward to the crosstabs on this.

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A few thoughts: 1) it's awful for Rokita that his name recognition is 41% and within the margin of error with Messer. The former was Secretary of State for 8 years in Indiana and should have a higher name recognition than he currently does. I still think the primary favors Messer. 2) Donnelly at 48 with leaners is a good sign for him, especially with only 16% conclusively saying they won't vote for him. 3) Holcomb is already safe R in 2020. Challenging him would be a suicide mission (hint, hint, Buttigeg. Don't run yet, wait for it to be open in '24).

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A few thoughts: 1) it's awful for Rokita that his name recognition is 41% and within the margin of error with Messer. The former was Secretary of State for 8 years in Indiana and should have a higher name recognition than he currently does. I still think the primary favors Messer. 2) Donnelly at 48 with leaners is a good sign for him, especially with only 16% conclusively saying they won't vote for him. 3) Holcomb is already safe R in 2020. Challenging him would be a suicide mission (hint, hint, Buttigeg. Don't run yet, wait for it to be open in '24).

Pete should definitely wait until 2024.  Assuming the GOP wins in 2020, 2024 will be a blue typhoon that will make 2008 look like child's play.  That would be Pete's time to shine.

I'm rooting for Suzanne Crouch in 2024, but it might be tough to hold that office for 24 years.

Crouch would also be pushing 75 by 2024. Plus, as you mention, it'd be really hard to hold the governor's mansion for 2 1/2 decades

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A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

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A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

I think Messer is without question

They're both worse than Braun at the moment, but I tend to view Rokita as more likely to underperform in Indianapolis and Fort Wayne and their suburbs.

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A little old news here, but Rokita is skipping the final debate. I still firmly believe that Todd is the weakest potential opponent to Donnelly and this stunt only confirms it

I think Messer is without question

They're both worse than Braun at the moment, but I tend to view Rokita as more likely to underperform in Indianapolis and Fort Wayne and their suburbs.

After seeing Saccone and Gillespie go down in flames in the burbs, I’m not sure it matters who Republicans run. Their perceived difference in appeal in the suburbs will be negligible. Messe rwould be a much easier opponent to paint as an out of touch asshole DC elite in the rural areas.

Ya know what, that's plausible. Donnelly has decent rural / working class credibility and LM's weaknesses there could have an impact. That said, it'd probably wash with TR's weaknesses with the Mitch Danielses / suburbia republicans of the IN GOP.

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I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.

Wouldn't surprise me if Donnelly exceeded his '12 performance in the county.

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I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.

Wouldn't surprise me if Donnelly exceeded his '12 performance in the county.

I don't think Donnelly can win Hamilton, but it wouldn't surprise me if the county was within 10 points. It is diversifying, has very high education rates and is becoming more young, three great trends for Democrats. I've done some canvassing there and there are a *lot* of former Republicans willing to vote for Donnelly or another Democrat. Again, I know it's anecdotal, but I genuinely think that Donnelly could be competitive there.

And I'm very undecided on who would be the strongest candidate. If I had to say, I'd probably go with Braun>Messer>Rokita, though marginally. Although Braun has the residency issues and won't be as good of a fundraiser, he doesn't have the massive residency issue of Messer and isn't ridiculously gaffe-prone like Rokita. And as previously noted, Rokita would be a really weak candidate in areas like Hamilton County.

Depending on the nominee (*cough* Rokita *cough*), Hamilton could also see a disproportionately high share of third-party votes, as it did in '16-PRES. Something like 7-7.5% of voters there voted third party in the presidential election, which is just about double the share of voters who voted third party in the gubernatorial race. Roughly 4.4% voted third party in the Senate race. Braun and Messer would probably bring home those conservative third party protest voters moreso than Rokita in Hamilton County and wouldn't shed as many to Donnelly.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

If Hamilton is within 10 points, would that be a result of a very tight election, or potential third-party split? If it’s the former, and Republicans put up Rosita, it seems like Donnelly could maybe when I plurality in the county.

I lived in Hamilton for 15 years. It's not going for Donnelly this year, even with high third party turnout. Honestly, Donnelly's best realistic case is something like 42 Donnelly / 52 Rokita / 6% Libertarian. Maaaaaybe 45/49/6 in a blue tsunami and with low R turnout and high third party. And that's taking into consideration suburbs swings in PA-18, Virginia, GA-06,15 etc.

 As Nick mentioned above, there are demographic changes - it's getting younger and it's very well educated. But it's been a republican stronghold for decades and it's my personal opinion that there's a lot of inertia there for the older voters in the county.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

Yes, good article.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

Major props, Mark.

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Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.

Yeah, I think on paper, Braun's the strongest candidate. Maybe they're concerned with his demeanor (I haven't seen the debate(s) admittedly, so i don't have a handle on his speaking style) but it's honestly pretty hard to imagine either of the two Reps being any more energizing for both of the two disparate Republican wings in Indiana.

My sneaking suspicion is one of two things: 1) as a quote-unquote proud outsider, Republicans may believe Braun could be a headache for McConnell; or 2) they've got damaging oppo on Braun that the Reps haven't yet found or they hear that Donnelly has but is saving for the general if Braun scores the nom.

Like I said, on paper and based on what we know now, Braun is a really good candidate. The only way that changes is if there's something that isn't captured in public information, which I would guess is damaging oppo.

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Another ad out by Braun, looks as good as the cutout ad of Messer and Rokita imo.

Braun has a really good ad agency. This ad is really clever and stands out against the typical political ads. It's a little cheesy, but tbh a little cheesy plays well in Indiana.

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Rokita accessed Republican Party records on his government computer while serving as IN Secretary of State.

The literal definition of a nothingburger.

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Good lord, Rokita is a cluster of a bad campaign. How can someone who's been in Indiana politics for going on 15 years be so bad at it?

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The timber story won't do lasting damage. It'll hurt as much as Donnelly's (now former) ownership in his family business that's accused of outsourcing.

But I do maintain that while Braun might have a high ceiling as a candidate, he also has a lower floor than the Reps. Their negatives are fairly priced in and Braun hasn't been vetted much. He'll probably be the best candidate, but don't count out some pretty bad oppo.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Rokita with his own youthful indiscretion.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/25/indiana-senate-race-2018-rokita-arrest-messer-dui/546480002/

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Donnelly I think is in even more danger than Heitkamp and Manchin. He has the lowest profiles of any of the red state Dems. He doesn't have the brand that Manchin, McCaskill, Tester, and Heitkamp have, he was just a little known House Rep who got elected in a fluke.

This is factually inaccurate. His low profile will be an asset in Indiana and he absolutely has a brand in state.

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https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1027917575051796480

Ooh, this is the exact kind of thing that could make a massive difference in such a close race. Let's see how the Donnelly campaign plays their cards here. The blatant hypocrisy isn't a good look for Braun and it could seriously make a huge difference if Donnelly were to capitalize on it.

This won't make a lick of difference. Donnelly's own brother profited from shipping jobs to Mexico and Donnelly owned shares in that same company. Any attack on Braun will be answered with that so it'll have a net neutral impact. Donnelly is still toast and this doesn't change anything.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Have there been any recent polls from Indiana? I haven't seen any posted here since the one immediately after the primary, that showed Braun with a 1 pt. lead. And what leads you to believe that Donnelly is DOA? At best, I thought this race was a tossup.

Apart from my own deep antipathy towards the man? Setting that aside, I think there are several things to bear in mind when assessing the state of this race and they all, to me, add up to a lean R race:

I'll start with the poll that you mentioned. A deficit as an incumbent against a challenger with a lower name recognition is not a strong position to begin with and betrays a low personal brand than similarly situated incumbents in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

Which segues perfectly into my next point - Donnelly is ultimately a bland candidate too spineless and cowardly to take a strong stand on issues that his constituents care about. Once again, similarly situated incumbents have taken tough votes and tough stances against the President to secure their own bases before pivoting to convincing moderates. McCaskill loudly took a stand against the ACA repeal, Tester torpedoed Jackson and Donnelly isn't running in R+40 West Virginia. He still needs to hold his own base and he has done an exceedingly poor job thereof.

I won't rehash it, but a few posts back, some of the Indiana avatars were discussing Donnelly's website; it's a bland, cookie cutter bipartisanship relic from the 80's. His campaign is not geared for the cycle in which it is being run.

And if you want demographics, the dude can provide. Marion and Lake provide anywhere between a third and 2/5 of the Democrats' votes statewide in Indiana. Historically, both counties have turnout problems for Democrats in the midterms. Donnelly's squeaker of a victory in 2012 was in no small part to an unusually high number of vote splitters in the highest two Republican vote getting counties - Hamilton (northern suburbs and exurbs of Indianapolis) and Allen (home to Indiana's second largest city, Fort Wayne), coupled with a coattails ballot effect in both Monroe and Lake from Barack Obama (both counties, of course, have more Black voters relative to the rest of Indiana's counties and Obama's presence on the top of the ballot juiced black turnout in both of those counties).

Mourdock's comments cost him thousands of voters in Hamilton and Allen counties - home to Indiana's famed fiscal conservative, social moderate to liberal ™ demographic. These counties voted for Trump in higher numbers than for Mourdock. Braun is literally a former small businessman in the mold very much in line with those voters. And as Donnelly continues to refuse to distance himself from a President who makes those voters squeamish, he will continue to lose their votes to someone more in line with those voters' economic interests, as those voters prioritize their tax cuts. Donnelly received in the low 40s in those two counties, compared to low 30's for Obama in the same year. That makes up fully a third of his margin over Mourdock that he won't be able to rely on in 18, nor will he be able to count on a third party libertarian spoiler siphoning nearly 6% of the vote.

What Donnelly, then, is doing in these counties is failing to give moderate suburbanites ™ a reason to cast a vote against Trump, while also failing to win over the types of rural voters that have seen Republican gains across a number of special elections.

There is, of course, the likelihood that I am hopelessly biased against the man and that he's fine. But these are my reasons for thinking he's more likely to lose than win.