Before the mandatory retabulation, but with 100% of the vote in, the number of MPs in the 240-seat parliament is, as follows:
GERB - 95 +11, compared to 2014
BSP - 80 +41
United Patriots - 27 -3
DPS - 26 -12
Volya - 12 new
This gives GERB and the UP a majority of 122 - far too tender for Borisov to really consider it as an option, unless he has assurances from DPS that they will not raise any trouble.
An unofficial seat distribution has sprung a few surprises. Most notably, the speaker of parliament and 2016 presidential candidate Tsetska Tsacheva has lost her seat after she got displaced through preference votes. All in all, at least 4 GERB and 7 BSP MPs will get a seat through the "double vote" phenomenon - where the voter marks the same number both on the party list and on the preference list. DPS and UP are also likely affected, but I haven't had the time to go through their results, or to check on the preference vote picture in general.
The unofficial seat distribution has VMRO and Ataka at 8 seats out of the 27 of the United Patriots coalition, NFSB at 7 and another 4 are difficult to place. For instance, there is the Democrats for Strong Bulgaria founder, who then became Boyko Borisov's parliamentary secretary in the Borisov I government, who then switched to Kuneva and the RB, but has now switched to the NFSB. Or the minor party leader, who previously has been affiliated to Ataka, RZS and BSP, is in a coalition with Ataka in the Burgas municipal council, but is a business partner with a DPS MP... Ah, the joys of Bulgarian party life.
In any event, it is clear that for the first time in post-communist Bulgaria's history, a PM has been reelected immediately after stepping down. Any coalition the BSP may lead would be a suicide pact. Borisov will wait until Monday next week to start coalition negotiations, but even in a minority government situation, nobody (who is in parliament) wants new elections, so Borisov will certainly form his 3rd cabinet.
Is there any interest in the crosstabs of the exit-polls (the breakdown in education, age and ethnicity)?
Why BSP picked up so many votes
