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| | |-+  Why was North Carolina not a swing state until 2008?
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Author Topic: Why was North Carolina not a swing state until 2008?  (Read 1045 times)
mencken
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« on: March 12, 2017, 09:50:17 pm »
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Did it just take Obama to energize the black vote? Did the Research Triangle have significant population growth during the 2000s?
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2017, 11:44:29 pm »
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Did it just take Obama to energize the black vote? Did the Research Triangle have significant population growth during the 2000s?

Probably a combination of the two along with the increased transplant growth.  You also had the national climate and a solid win for Obama in 2008 nationwide. The actual trend in NC from 0 to 08 was basically the same as the trend from 04 to 08
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« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2017, 09:59:09 pm »
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Because Clinton upset KY, VA and NC farmers by suing Tobacco industry for smoking. And senators like Jesse Helms, and Strom Thurmond and Phil Gramms were still in the Senate during that time impeaching Bill Clinton.


Once that was over, the new South which include VA, NC, FL, MO and LA gave way to electing Democrats in national elections which Bill Clinton won MO and LA twice and Obama won NC, VA and FL all in 2008
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« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2017, 10:42:16 pm »
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Louisiana and Missouri are part of the New South? Why?
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2017, 10:47:04 pm »
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Louisiana and Missouri are part of the New South? JBE winning under the circumstances he did means little long-term. I'm also not sure what you're saying about Missouri. MO had some signs with the youth vote, but Trump seemed to wipe that out last year. Now I'm not so sure.

I know they're exit polls so they should be taken with a grain of salt, but I couldn't believe just how well Trump did with young voters in Missouri.

-18-29 year olds: Trump won 51-40 (by comparison he only won 30-44 year olds: 48-44).

-18-24 year olds: 57-35 !!!

Cnn exit poll.
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« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2017, 10:53:14 pm »
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I know they're exit polls so they should be taken with a grain of salt, but I couldn't believe just how well Trump did with young voters in Missouri.

-18-29 year olds: Trump won 51-40 (by comparison he only won 30-44 year olds: 48-44).

-18-24 year olds: 57-35 !!!

Cnn exit poll.

The Senate numbers actually kind of track the trends seen from 2004-2012, where young voters consistently broke pretty heavily Democratic. They clearly carried that towards Democrats other than Hillary. I actually hadn't thought to check the EPs in MO for Kander. Yet another annoying statistic showing that had Hillary done as well as Obama among youth in MO, Kander might have pulled it off.

However, if the youngest voters don't go back to at least some sort of majority-Democrat, then I can only think that the future of Missouri might be more Democrat-friendly but ultimately not really what I imagine qualifies as an emerging Democratic state. It takes more than ~15 years worth of heavily Democratic voters to shift the political landscape in a state like Missouri.
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« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2017, 11:02:52 pm »
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I know they're exit polls so they should be taken with a grain of salt, but I couldn't believe just how well Trump did with young voters in Missouri.

-18-29 year olds: Trump won 51-40 (by comparison he only won 30-44 year olds: 48-44).

-18-24 year olds: 57-35 !!!

Cnn exit poll.

The Senate numbers actually kind of track the trends seen from 2004-2012, where young voters consistently broke pretty heavily Democratic. They clearly carried that towards Democrats other than Hillary. I actually hadn't thought to check the EPs in MO for Kander. Yet another annoying statistic showing that had Hillary done as well as Obama among youth in MO, Kander might have pulled it off.

However, if the youngest voters don't go back to at least some sort of majority-Democrat, then I can only think that the future of Missouri might be more Democrat-friendly but ultimately not really what I imagine qualifies as an emerging Democratic state. It takes more than ~15 years worth of heavily Democratic voters to shift the political landscape in a state like Missouri.

It might be because, however much a long shot, 18-20/21 year olds are skewing the entire 18-24 year old demographic to be more conservative. Aka the whole Gen Z is more conservative theory.

I think the states where Trump either won 18-24 year olds or where 18-24 year olds voted more conservatively than the 25-29 year old brackets were:
Wisconsin
Missouri
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Maine (Note: 18-24 year olds voted more conservatively than their elderly, but not more conservatively than the 25-29 year olds, which still indicates a more conservative shift for this state overall).
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Eharding
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« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2017, 05:33:32 pm »
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Has everybody forgotten North Carolina had the largest non-Hispanic White population growth of any state in the country between 2000 and 2010? Buncha liberals were bringing their political opinions with them.
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« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2017, 05:59:59 pm »
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It wasn't really in 2008 either.  Obama just managed to squeak by in the conservative state during a great year for Democrats.
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« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2017, 09:40:52 pm »
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It wasn't really in 2008 either.  Obama just managed to squeak by in the conservative state during a great year for Democrats.

It was relatively close in 2012 and 2016, too. It's not like Indiana that was basically a fluke.
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« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2017, 10:12:58 pm »
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It wasn't really in 2008 either.  Obama just managed to squeak by in the conservative state during a great year for Democrats.

It was relatively close in 2012 and 2016, too. It's not like Indiana that was basically a fluke.

NC has been trending left in presidential elections but it's still not a swing state, since a swing state swings the election.  At least not yet.
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« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2017, 10:27:57 pm »
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It wasn't really in 2008 either.  Obama just managed to squeak by in the conservative state during a great year for Democrats.

It was relatively close in 2012 and 2016, too. It's not like Indiana that was basically a fluke.

NC has been trending left in presidential elections but it's still not a swing state, since a swing state swings the election.  At least not yet.

That's a ridiculously narrow definition. By that logic, Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004 are the only swing states in recent memory.
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« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2017, 10:32:18 pm »
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Swing state is not the same thing as a battleground state.

Granted, you could say a swing state is any state that could plausibly swing the election, so PA, WI, FL were all swing states in 2016.  Maybe NC was close that year, but not many expected it to be the tipping point state.
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« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2017, 10:39:10 pm »
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Whatever. I think everyone has their own personal definition of the term.
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« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2017, 03:50:31 pm »
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Did it just take Obama to energize the black vote? Did the Research Triangle have significant population growth during the 2000s?

Probably a combination of the two along with the increased transplant growth.  You also had the national climate and a solid win for Obama in 2008 nationwide. The actual trend in NC from 0 to 08 was basically the same as the trend from 04 to 08

Are you comparing swing and trend, or US swing 2004-2008 vs. NC swing 2000-2008?

Has everybody forgotten North Carolina had the largest non-Hispanic White population growth of any state in the country between 2000 and 2010? Buncha liberals were bringing their political opinions with them.

Hadn't heard that. Do you have a link?

My long-term concern is that liberals will stop moving here as much because of the ultra-right wing legislature.
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