Will Scotland vote for independence?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Since this is officially on the move again.

Latest polls put support for independence at 49%, but a third of people are at least partially open to persuasion.

[Beezer]

No...it essentially boils down to a choice between 2 unions. And I have a hard time believing Scots will prefer the EU over the UK particularly with the economic picture looking far less favorable today than it did back in 2014.

[GlobeSoc]

I'll only guess that the margin is less than 5 points

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It was close before the Brexit mess. Lean yes.

[Crumpets]

Probably not, but this one seems a lot less predictable than the last one for some reason. I think at the very least it'll be closer.

[Helsinkian]

Right now I think they will.

[Green Line]

Just get out! They are so unbearably whiny.

[Blue3]

How do they fix their economic problems so they're qualified to join the EU?

[Cashew]

Probably yes.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

How do they fix their economic problems so they're qualified to join the EU?

They could always join Wales and Northern Ireland in joining with the Republic of Ireland to form the United Republic of Ireland and Great Britain.  As a successor state to the Republic of Ireland, I would think it wouldn't need to go through the usual accession talks.

[2952-0-0]

How do they fix their economic problems so they're qualified to join the EU?

They could always join Wales and Northern Ireland in joining with the Republic of Ireland to form the United Republic of Ireland and Great Britain.  As a successor state to the Republic of Ireland, I would think it wouldn't need to go through the usual accession talks.

...and then after England has suffered a decade or so of self-inflicted depression and is begging for re-admittance into the EU, it decides to simply accede to the URIGB, with its capital in Dublin. Cromwell will be so proud.

[Clyde1998]

Yes. Especially if the No campaign is as shocking as it was last time (no idea who's going to lead it).

There was a Panelbase poll that asked which was closest to the respondents view, an independent Scotland within the EU, independent Scotland outwith the EU and Scotland within the UK & outwith the EU. 37% said indy Scotland within the EU, 11% said indy Scotland outwith the EU and 43% said UK outwith the EU. Which suggests that if the independence support isn't split between support for the EU and opposition to the EU, it would be at 48%, compared to 43% support for the union. The headline question in the poll was Yes 44%, No 51%.

It could all come down to how people who want out of both the UK and EU vote and I believe that they'll side with coming out of the UK - as that's where there's more control over their lives.

[Blair]

Anecdote Klaxon

My Uncle, and Aunt who are both English born moved up to Scotland 20 years ago. Both are typical university educated Labour supporters, and voted No in 2014- mainly for economic reasons as my uncle has a brewing business.

However they voted SNP in 2015, and Remain in 2016- only to have completely dismayed at what May/Brexit is turning into. They'll both be voting for Indy now- there must be a very large chunk of voters like this.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Unfortunately for the Indy wing, the issue that has caused Irish reunification to become more likely (the EU confirming that border controls would be necessary between the UK and the EU) could potentially cripple the swing vote. After all, last time the SNP could make an argument that border controls would at worst be a temporary annotation, this time round the explicit aim for the SNP is to rejoin the EU, which means border control in the long term.

[Intell]

Is there anyone who supported Independence then and oppose it now, because of brexit.

[Clyde1998]

Is there anyone who supported Independence then and oppose it now, because of brexit.

According to a YouGov poll conducted between August and December last year:

Voted Yes & Remain - Yes 86%, No 8%, DK 6%
Votes Yes & Leave - Yes 65%, No 25%, DK 9%, Wouldn't Vote 1%
Voted No & Remain - Yes 12%, No 74%, DK 14%
Voted No & Leave - Yes 3%, No 93%, DK 3%, Wouldn't Vote 1%
Didn't Vote in a Ref - Yes 40%, No 27%, DK 19%, Wouldn't Vote 14%

The headline figures for that survey was Yes 39%, No 47%, DK 11%, Wouldn't Vote 4% - making it Yes 46%, No 54% once undecided voters were removed (ie Yes +1 on 2014).

Although this poll was completed three months ago, and the independence movement has recently jumped in the last couple of polls from where they were a month or so ago, it shows that there are a large amount of Yes voters that could move to No due to Brexit.

[vileplume]

Is there anyone who supported Independence then and oppose it now, because of brexit.

I would guess that there are probably quite a lot of them in the fishing towns of North East Scotland.

[Beezer]

Anecdote Klaxon

My Uncle, and Aunt who are both English born moved up to Scotland 20 years ago. Both are typical university educated Labour supporters, and voted No in 2014- mainly for economic reasons as my uncle has a brewing business.

However they voted SNP in 2015, and Remain in 2016- only to have completely dismayed at what May/Brexit is turning into. They'll both be voting for Indy now- there must be a very large chunk of voters like this.

And I'm sure there are other voters who bought into the "independence lite" argument along with a never ending stream of high oil revenues in 2014 who are now getting cold feet over the prospect of a hard border between Scotland and rUK and oil below $50 a barrel.

[Beezer]

BTW, are there any sort of datasets that illustrate the differing sentiments on Europe between Scotland and England?

[Clyde1998]

BTW, are there any sort of datasets that illustrate the differing sentiments on Europe between Scotland and England?

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf

Some of the most interesting questions from that "exit" poll:

Do you think of each of the following as being a force for good, a force for ill, or a mixed-blessing?
Multiculturalism
ENG - Good 47%; Ill 31%
SCO - Good 54%; Ill 25%
WAL - Good 42%; Ill 31%
NIR - Good 47%; Ill 27%

Globalisation
ENG - Good 42%; Ill 24%
SCO - Good 40%; Ill 27%
WAL - Good 41%; Ill 25%
NIR - Good 47%; Ill 19%

Capitalism
ENG - Good 40%; Ill 29%
SCO - Good 34%; Ill 36%
WAL - Good 38%; Ill 31%
NIR - Good 35%; Ill 33%

Immigration
ENG - Good 34%; Ill 41%
SCO - Good 43%; Ill 32%
WAL - Good 30%; Ill 43%
NIR - Good 31%; Ill 43%

Are each of the following more likely to be better if the UK remains in the EU, or better if the UK leaves the EU?
Border controls
ENG - Remains 29%; Leaves 71%
SCO - Remains 32%; Leaves 67%
WAL - Remains 29%; Leaves 71%
NIR - Remains 26%; Leaves 74%

Economic security for you and your family
ENG - Remains 51%; Leaves 49%
SCO - Remains 65%; Leaves 35%
WAL - Remains 47%; Leaves 53%
NIR - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%

Job prospects
ENG - Remains 50%; Leaves 50%
SCO - Remains 62%; Leaves 38%
WAL - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%
NIR - Remains 54%; Leaves 46%

Opportunities for children growing up today
ENG - Remains 50%; Leaves 50%
SCO - Remains 63%; Leaves 37%
WAL - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%
NIR - Remains 52%; Leaves 48%

The NHS
ENG - Remains 42%; Leaves 58%
SCO - Remains 59%; Leaves 41%
WAL - Remains 40%; Leaves 60%
NIR - Remains 50%; Leaves 50%

Fairness in the welfare system
ENG - Remains 42%; Leaves 58%
SCO - Remains 58%; Leaves 42%
WAL - Remains 40%; Leaves 60%
NIR - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%

Our protection against terrorism
ENG - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%
SCO - Remains 63%; Leaves 37%
WAL - Remains 45%; Leaves 55%
NIR - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%

The immigration system
ENG - Remains 29%; Leaves 71%
SCO - Remains 41%; Leaves 59%
WAL - Remains 29%; Leaves 71%
NIR - Remains 25%; Leaves 75%

The cost of living
ENG - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%
SCO - Remains 66%; Leaves 34%
WAL - Remains 51%; Leaves 49%
NIR - Remains 60%; Leaves 40%

Ability to control our own laws
ENG - Remains 21%; Leaves 79%
SCO - Remains 32%; Leaves 68%
WAL - Remains 22%; Leaves 78%
NIR - Remains 23%; Leaves 77%

The economy as a whole
ENG - Remains 51%; Leaves 49%
SCO - Remains 65%; Leaves 35%
WAL - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%
NIR - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%

The UK's influence in the world
ENG - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%
SCO - Remains 67%; Leaves 33%
WAL - Remains 50%; Leaves 50%
NIR - Remains 54%; Leaves 46%

Rights for people in the UK
ENG - Remains 44%; Leaves 56%
SCO - Remains 60%; Leaves 40%
WAL - Remains 42%; Leaves 58%
NIR - Remains 49%; Leaves 51%

Investment in the UK by international companies
ENG - Remains 59%; Leaves 41%
SCO - Remains 71%; Leaves 29%
WAL - Remains 58%; Leaves 42%
NIR - Remains 58%; Leaves 42%

The quality of life in the UK
ENG - Remains 46%; Leaves 54%
SCO - Remains 61%; Leaves 39%
WAL - Remains 45%; Leaves 55%
NIR - Remains 52%; Leaves 48%

[TDAS04]

Out of curiosity, does anyone have an idea how Wales would vote on a hypothetical independence referendum?  It probably wouldn't come very close to passing, since Wales even voted for Brexit.

[Tintrlvr]

How do they fix their economic problems so they're qualified to join the EU?

They could always join Wales and Northern Ireland in joining with the Republic of Ireland to form the United Republic of Ireland and Great Britain.  As a successor state to the Republic of Ireland, I would think it wouldn't need to go through the usual accession talks.

Should be the United Republic of Ireland and Northern Great Britain, excuse me.

[Tintrlvr]

Out of curiosity, does anyone have an idea how Wales would vote on a hypothetical independence referendum?  It probably wouldn't come very close to passing, since Wales even voted for Brexit.

Probably around 20-30% in favor. Some older polling found only single digits in favor. A poll from shortly after Brexit found 15% in favor generally, 19% if Scotland also left the UK and 28% if Wales could stay a part of the EU, though in each case with about 20% undecided, and support would probably rise a bit over the course of a referendum campaign (but not over 35% at maximum, certainly).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_independence#Opinion_polling

[Figueira]

Out of curiosity, does anyone have an idea how Wales would vote on a hypothetical independence referendum?  It probably wouldn't come very close to passing, since Wales even voted for Brexit.

The other issue is that Wales is a lot more connected to England than Scotland is, given geography.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Probably around 20-30% in favor.

Almost certainly sub-25% and probably less than that. It's not a serious possibility and there will never be vote on the matter.