MarkD
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,188
|
|
« on: March 19, 2017, 10:56:52 AM » |
|
|
« edited: March 19, 2017, 12:24:12 PM by MarkD »
|
MO Senate District 14. Popluation according to 2010 Census: 171,753; percentage black: 60.73%. Entirely suburban. Cities than are wholly or mostly with the district: Clayton, University City, Normandy, Jennings, Ferguson, Woodson Terrace, Bridgeton, and Hazelwood. Some other important entities in the district: Lambert- St. Louis Int'l Airport; Washington Univ.; UM-St. Louis. According to the redistricting commission's analysis of the federal and state elections of 2002 through 2010, the district was 84.2% Democratic during that decade; according to my analysis of the 2012 elections, it was 82.91% Democratic that year. Incumbent Senator: Maria Chapelle-Nadal, who unsuccessfully challenged Congressman Lacy Clay in August, 2016. In three elections to the House - 2004, 2006, 2008 - she never had any opponents in the general elections, nor any opponents who were on the ballot in the general elections to the Senate in 2010 or 2014. A write-in candidate in 2014 got a little over 5%. Her only serious, close contests were in the Democratic Party primaries of 2004 and 2010. Because of term limits, she can't run again next year, so there will likely be a strong contest for the Democratic nomination, but no other candidates are likely going to run for the general election. The previous incumbent, Rita Days, also did not have any opponents in the general elections of 2002 or 2006.
MO Representative District 85. Population according to 2010 Census: 37,891; percentage black: 62.77%. Cities: Pine Lawn, Northwoods, Pasadena Hills (one of the most affluent black-majority cities in the country), Normandy, Bel-Nor (contains a home in which, about 68 years ago, an exorcism was performed on a boy, which inspired the book and movie The Exorcist), Bel-Ridge, parts of St. John and Overland. UM-St. Louis. According to the redistricting commission's analysis of the elections in 2002 through 2010, the district was 85.9% Democratic during that decade. According to my analysis of 2012, it was 85.77% Democratic that year, but in 2016 it was 79.63% Democratic. There was a drop-off of nearly 19% in voter turnout comparing 2016 to 2012. Incumbent Representative: Clem Smith; previous incumbents (in the old District 71): Esther Haywood and Don Calloway. There was a Libertarian Party candidate who ran in 2002, then no one else tried to run against Haywood, Calloway, or Smith until a Republican ran in 2016, and that Republican ended up with 18.42%. Smith is in his last term, so he might run for the Senate, trying to replace Chapelle-Nadal.
|