2017 French Presidential Election
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Author Topic: 2017 French Presidential Election  (Read 103059 times)
Tirnam
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« Reply #25 on: March 19, 2017, 12:33:29 PM »

Kantar-Sofres poll for Le Figaro

Macron: 26% (+1, since March 4th)
Le Pen: 26% (=)
Fillon: 17% (=)
Hamon: 12% (-4)
Mélenchon: 12% (=)

A 9-points gap between Fillon and a qualification for the runoff must be a record. Only OpinionWay has Fillon at 20% now.
Hamon drops in every poll, in danger to go behind Mélenchon.

The candidate would be a good president
Macron: Yes 47%, No 44%
Fillon: Yes 29%, No 64%
Le Pen: Yes 29%, No 65%
Hamon: Yes 28%, No 63%
Mélenchon: Yes 24%, No 69%
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MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: March 19, 2017, 12:50:55 PM »

Wow, surprising people have very strong negative opinions about Hamon. Also suffixing that Macron is the only candidate above 30%.
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #27 on: March 19, 2017, 12:55:15 PM »

without a major scandal, it would be a polling mistake MUCH bigger than brexit/trump if macron wouldn't make it to the second round at this point.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #28 on: March 19, 2017, 01:22:18 PM »

I'm becoming resigned to FBM at this point. At least it won't be Nepotistic Thatcher Wannabe. Then again, I was "resigned" to Hillary last October...
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swl
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« Reply #29 on: March 19, 2017, 02:08:14 PM »

Hamon is the less visible of the big candidates. I am not sure I heard of him a single time since he won the primary. At least Melenchon managed to gain some attention thanks to his mass meetings and rallies. This will probably change though with the beginning of the official campaign, debates and the obligation of balanced media time.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #30 on: March 19, 2017, 02:26:56 PM »

According to Le Monde speaking time since February 1st :

Fillon: 197 hours
Hamon: 142 hours
Macron: 127 hours
Le Pen: 111 hours
Mélenchon: 65 hours

If you missed him it's probably bad luck!
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #31 on: March 19, 2017, 02:40:06 PM »

Is this just the time the candidates themselves have spoken, or does it include the time during which the media has talked about the candidates? FBM and Panzergirl ought to do a lot better on the latter metric.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #32 on: March 19, 2017, 02:46:58 PM »

It's the speaking time of the candidate and its supporters.

For the total amount (candidate, supporters, and media conversation):
Fillon: 476 hours
Macron: 266 hours
Hamon: 209 hours
Le Pen: 207 hours
Mélenchon: 90 hours
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #33 on: March 19, 2017, 02:58:38 PM »

So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

279 Thatcherboy
139 FBM
96 Panzergirl
67 Hamon
25 Mélenchon

In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists."
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #34 on: March 19, 2017, 03:11:56 PM »

Fillon & FBM downplaying the debate.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #35 on: March 19, 2017, 03:18:28 PM »

So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

279 Thatcherboy
139 FBM
96 Panzergirl
67 Hamon
25 Mélenchon

In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists."

You can't just put everything in the media's basket. A candidate also has a responsibility for his visibility.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #36 on: March 19, 2017, 03:20:49 PM »

So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

279 Thatcherboy
139 FBM
96 Panzergirl
67 Hamon
25 Mélenchon

In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists."

You can't just put everything in the media's basket. A candidate also has a responsibility for his visibility.

How so? Candidates are doing all they can to win, and they have an interest in getting visibility, so it's not like they'd deliberately choose to avoid it when they have a chance to get it.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #37 on: March 19, 2017, 03:21:51 PM »

So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

279 Thatcherboy
139 FBM
96 Panzergirl
67 Hamon
25 Mélenchon

In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists."
The Fillon's scandal has obviously a considerable impact on that measure but the rules is to give to each candidate a "fair" speaking time according to their involvement in the campaign (polling numbers, previous results, rallies, etc.)

So except for Fillon those numbers seems fair to me (and remember that Hamon spent the whole month of February out of the campaign trail to work on an alliance with Jadot)

The candidates will have an equal speaking time on the 10th April.

Strange for Fillon, it is his narrative "I won the primaries thanks to the debates, it will be the same with the general election". If he doesn't think the debates will change the dynamics of the race how he thinks he will regain votes?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #38 on: March 19, 2017, 03:53:35 PM »

So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

279 Thatcherboy
139 FBM
96 Panzergirl
67 Hamon
25 Mélenchon

In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists."

You can't just put everything in the media's basket. A candidate also has a responsibility for his visibility.

How so? Candidates are doing all they can to win, and they have an interest in getting visibility, so it's not like they'd deliberately choose to avoid it when they have a chance to get it.

Frankly, I don't have the impression that Hamon is doing everything he can to win, but rather the opposite. He may in fact be consciously taking a low profile because he knows he is going to lose and would himself prefer Macron to Fillon/Le Pen. Hamon is not Melenchon, who would like to see right-wingers burn the world to the ground so that the left (and he personally) can triumph, and ultimately is aware that his candidacy is dead in the water unless something outside of both candidates' control (or at least definitely outside of Hamon's control; Macron could screw up epically) happens to Macron.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #39 on: March 20, 2017, 12:06:55 PM »

Last polls before the debate

Trackings
OpinionWay
Le Pen: 27% (-1)
Macron: 23% (-2)
Fillon: 18% (-2)
Hamon: 13% (+1)
Mélenchon: 12% (+1)

Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40%

Ifop
Le Pen: 26% (-0.5)
Macron: 25% (-1)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 12.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 11.5% (+1)

Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40%

Elabe
Macron: 25.5% (=, March 6th)
Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Fillon: 17.5% (-1.5)
Hamon: 13.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 13% (+1)

Second round: Macron 63%, Le Pen 37%

Polls by region
Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre.
Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #40 on: March 20, 2017, 12:10:01 PM »

Polls by region
Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre.
Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round)

Where do you see the 2nd round numbers by region ?

I only see 1st round results ...
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #41 on: March 20, 2017, 12:10:43 PM »

Why is PACA so right-wing?
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kyc0705
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« Reply #42 on: March 20, 2017, 12:11:59 PM »

So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

I misread this as "indecent exposure" and got really scared.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #43 on: March 20, 2017, 12:16:49 PM »

Polls by region
Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre.
Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round)

Where do you see the 2nd round numbers by region ?

I only see 1st round results ...

Here.
You have to see the results region by region.

in Hauts-de-France it's Macron 55%, in Grand-Est and Bourgogne-Franche Comté Macron 56%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #44 on: March 20, 2017, 12:20:41 PM »

Polls by region
Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre.
Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round)

Where do you see the 2nd round numbers by region ?

I only see 1st round results ...

Here.
You have to see the results region by region.

in Hauts-de-France it's Macron 55%, in Grand-Est and Bourgogne-Franche Comté Macron 56%

Interesting, thx.

I have already assumed that Upper France and PACA will vote roughly like Austria when I saw that regional map of 1st round results a month ago in the deleted thread.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #45 on: March 20, 2017, 01:22:23 PM »


In a nutshell, pieds-noirs, the tourism industry, and strong anti-immigration sentiment. Gaël would have a lot more to say about it, of course.
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
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« Reply #46 on: March 20, 2017, 02:37:25 PM »

Brittany continues to be the best region in France
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #47 on: March 20, 2017, 03:39:35 PM »

Dear God, that translator for Melenchon and Hamon on France24 English is so terrible.
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
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« Reply #48 on: March 20, 2017, 03:41:07 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2017, 03:44:56 PM by parochial boy »


In a nutshell, pieds-noirs, the tourism industry, and strong anti-immigration sentiment. Gaël would have a lot more to say about it, of course.

I feel the influence of the pieds-noirs and the tourism industry is oversold somewhat. After all, if you look other touristy areas, like the ski resorts of Haute-Savoie, these are solidly conservative, but not particularly strong for the FN.

I think part of the reason is down to the number of old people in the region; but also the traditionally high number of artisans and small businessmen in PACA, who are a strong FN demographic.
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MLM
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« Reply #49 on: March 20, 2017, 03:48:54 PM »

Dear God, that translator for Melenchon and Hamon on France24 English is so terrible.

I get that it's difficult to do live translations but I'm struggling to get some of what they candidates are saying. The Guardian live feed is pretty good at summing up what they are saying so I'm reading that too.
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