2017 French Presidential Election

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll.

Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate.

Damn, had the terrorist attack actually happened it would have been a game changer. Difficult to say who'd benefit, but I guess it'd help Le Pen and hurt Macron.

Something like that happened here in 04 and it changed the polls by around 9 points. (prediction was PP+4 result was PSOE+5 or so)

Wasn't that mostly because it turned a lot of people against the Iraq War, rather than just being a terrorist attack effect?

[Tirnam]

Last poll Ipsos / Cevipof / Le Monde

Macron : 23% (-2 since April, 2)
Le Pen : 22.5% (-2.5)
Fillon : 19.5% (+2)
Mélenchon : 19% (+4)

Turnout : 72% (+6)

Same results than the other polls but in this one, with the large sample (8,000) the gap is outside the margin of error (1 point)

[Zinneke]

And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll.

Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate.

Damn, had the terrorist attack actually happened it would have been a game changer. Difficult to say who'd benefit, but I guess it'd help Le Pen and hurt Macron.

Something like that happened here in 04 and it changed the polls by around 9 points. (prediction was PP+4 result was PSOE+5 or so)

Wasn't that mostly because it turned a lot of people against the Iraq War, rather than just being a terrorist attack effect?

Correct me if I am wrong, track, but I think the reason why PP got swung by the terrorist attack was mainly because of the way they handled it too i.e blaming ETA for political gain.

[Velasco]

And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll.

Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate.

Damn, had the terrorist attack actually happened it would have been a game changer. Difficult to say who'd benefit, but I guess it'd help Le Pen and hurt Macron.

Something like that happened here in 04 and it changed the polls by around 9 points. (prediction was PP+4 result was PSOE+5 or so)

Wasn't that mostly because it turned a lot of people against the Iraq War, rather than just being a terrorist attack effect?

Correct me if I am wrong, track, but I think the reason why PP got swung by the terrorist attack was mainly because of the way they handled it too i.e blaming ETA for political gain.

Exactly, the government lied and insisted in blaming ETA against all evidence. Prior the terrorist attacks polls said that around 90% was against the Iraq War, so there wasn't a lot of people left to turn against it.

Seems that French media is corrupt us well. They promote and felate Macron, because they don't want Melenchon to emerge as the left wing opposition.

No. The media have been quite nice to Mélenchon this last month. It seems that they read his platform only a week ago (to discover the Venezuela-Cuba alliance, etc.)

I guess that media was kind with Mélenchon as long as he wasn't perceived as a threat.

[parochial boy]

Don't want to speak too soon, but it seems like the gap between the top two and Mélenchon and Fillon has stopped closing. Still close enough for the result to be uncertain

[ApatheticAustrian]

macron looks safe again...all others are question marks.

[Gustaf]

SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT



still wrong obviously

My god, that's dumb. So, they're saying a candidate further to the right on economics than Macron is unthinkable, when he's running on some minor changes to FRANCE? And that Le Pen is the most authoritarian candidate one can imagine? Up there with Hitler and Stalin?

[mvd10]

Lol political compass. Why do they put Macron to the right of Fillon on economics? Does anyone know where Macron and Fillon stand on free trade btw? That's the only area where Macron might be more right-wing than Fillon.

[Devout Centrist]

SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT



still wrong obviously

My god, that's dumb. So, they're saying a candidate further to the right on economics than Macron is unthinkable, when he's running on some minor changes to FRANCE? And that Le Pen is the most authoritarian candidate one can imagine? Up there with Hitler and Stalin?

Even Le Pen gets a better review because she's not a (((neoliberal)))

[MAINEiac4434]

SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT



still wrong obviously

My god, that's dumb. So, they're saying a candidate further to the right on economics than Macron is unthinkable, when he's running on some minor changes to FRANCE? And that Le Pen is the most authoritarian candidate one can imagine? Up there with Hitler and Stalin?

It should prove once and for all that the political compass is flaming garbage.

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay

Macron: 23% (=)
Le Pen: 22% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (=)

Ifop

Macron: 23.5% (=)
Le Pen: 22.5% (=)
Fillon: 19.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (-0.5)

Ipsos (which will work for France 2 for the election night) warns that they might not be able to announce who will be in the runoff Sunday at 8pm (when the last polls will close).

Juppé was in a campaign event this morning with Fillon. The choice of words is interesting. He said that Macron is not presidential "for the moment", he supports Fillon's platform "for the main part" (According to Le Canard Enchaîné after a Fillon's statement that an anti-gay marriage movement could be in his government Juppé declared that if it was the case, he will be in the opposition)

[kyc0705]

SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT



still wrong obviously

I also fundamentally doubt the notion that any major mainstream candidate for any national office would be on the bottom half of the chart. In particular, that's some serious projecting they're doing for Macron's economic AND social provisions. To quote JFK, back and to the left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can we actually post the entirety of the polls and not just MUH BIG 4 here please? Some of us are still invested in how Hamon is doing.

[Tirnam]

Can we actually post the entirety of the polls and not just MUH BIG 4 here please? Some of us are still invested in how Hamon is doing.

If you want.

BVA poll

Macron: 24% (+1)
Le Pen: 23% (+1)
Fillon: 19% (-1)
Mélenchon: 19% (-1)
Hamon: 8.5% (+1)
Dupont-Aignan: 3.5% (+0.5)
Poutou: 1.5% (=)
The others are under 1%

Second round
Macron 65%, Le Pen 35%
Macron 67%, Fillon 33%
Macron 60%, Mélenchon 40%
Fillon 57%, Le Pen 43%
Mélenchon 60%, Le Pen 40%
Mélenchon 58%, Fillon 42%

Also about Hamon, his electorate is still incredibly weak, only 50 to 60% of Hamon's voters are sure to vote for him.
For the others the certainty of the vote is now around 75% to 80%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks. Ugh.

[Zinneke]

Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.

[Umengus]

Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.

I bet on Lasalle

[Antonio the Sixth]

Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.

I bet on Lasalle

Fingers crossed!

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.

I bet on Lasalle

Fingers crossed!

As someone of Bearnais/French Basque descent I agree

[parochial boy]

Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.

That man has some very dedicated supporters. Someone has glued his poster on every bridge of what seems like the entire French N road network.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.

I bet on Lasalle

Fingers crossed!

As someone of Bearnais/French Basque descent I agree

Tbh I'd vote for Lassalle over most of the "reasonable" candidates. He's definitely a weirdo, but he's also incredibly genuine and his proposed politices are pretty good overall.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT



still wrong obviously

lmao at the idea of Melenchon as a left-libertarian, he's perhaps the one modern (wester) political figure who belongs in the red quadrant.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Why would a country that has an opportunity of a lifetime (to elect someone like Melenchon) not take it? Makes no sense. Leftists voting for a former investment banker!?!

[DL]

Unless the polls in France are massively wrong - it seems to me that its almost certain that the run-off will be between Macron and LePen - the only suspense is 1. who will come in first in the first round - Macron or LePen and 2. will Melenchon overtake Fillon and drive him into a humiliating 4th place finish.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.

I bet on Lasalle

Fingers crossed!

As someone of Bearnais/French Basque descent I agree

Tbh I'd vote for Lassalle over most of the "reasonable" candidates. He's definitely a weirdo, but he's also incredibly genuine and his proposed politices are pretty good overall.

On that other Atlas I mentioned that I also switched my support for Lassalle, and as there are some people taking him seriously I think that this is worthy to mention. I've read his program and I agree that his policies are very nice (although in my opinion there were a little too little about foreign policy but he is kind of localist candidate so this is kind of logical).