2017 French Presidential Election
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Author Topic: 2017 French Presidential Election  (Read 103062 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #900 on: April 22, 2017, 05:37:29 PM »

I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster



But they have it at

FIllon 22.09%
Le Pen 21.75%
Melenchon 21.11%
Macron 19.95%
Hamon 7.04%
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #901 on: April 22, 2017, 05:42:41 PM »

I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster



But they have it at

FIllon 22.09%
Le Pen 21.75%
Melenchon 21.11%
Macron 19.95%
Hamon 7.04%

That is "buzz and perceptions", not vote share.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #902 on: April 22, 2017, 05:44:15 PM »

So, when will the polls close tomorrow?
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jaichind
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« Reply #903 on: April 22, 2017, 05:45:34 PM »

That is "buzz and perceptions", not vote share.

Thanks for clarifying. 
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parochial boy
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« Reply #904 on: April 22, 2017, 05:47:02 PM »

La Libre (Belgium) published a poll today, which is quite suprisingly. Dont know how trustful it is

Le Pen 26%
FIllon 22%
Macron 21%
Melenchon 17%

http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c


It's an internal poll for one of the candidates, so take with a massive pinch of salt
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Hydera
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« Reply #905 on: April 22, 2017, 05:51:48 PM »

ffs i swear if its Le Pen and Fillon.
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Lachi
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« Reply #906 on: April 22, 2017, 05:54:01 PM »

Final prediction:

25% Le Pen
23% Fillon
-----------------
23% Macron
17% Melenchon
  7% Hamon
  3% Dupont
  2% Others

How does Fillon pull 4% extra out of nowhere?
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Zuza
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« Reply #907 on: April 22, 2017, 06:35:22 PM »


Surprisingly only very few 2012 Melenchon voters support Le Pen now, while a significant share of 2012 Hollande voters do this.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #908 on: April 22, 2017, 07:33:53 PM »

I voted. Smiley
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Kringla Heimsins
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« Reply #909 on: April 22, 2017, 08:19:45 PM »

I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster



But they have it at

FIllon 22.09%
Le Pen 21.75%
Melenchon 21.11%
Macron 19.95%
Hamon 7.04%

This is how much the candidates are talked about on social medias. Every iteration of "Fillon, give the money back!", which has become an actual meme online in the form of "Rends l'argent", is credited to Fillon.
On the other hand, his voters are usually older than the general population, and are thus less active online.
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Poirot
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« Reply #910 on: April 22, 2017, 08:22:33 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2017, 08:28:57 PM by Poirot »

There has been a long line to reach the voting place in Montreal all day. Voters have said they waited 2 hours. At the close there was still a long line and those people will still be able to vote.

57000 people are registered to vote in Montreal (vs 44000 in 2012).
The news story mentions people wanting to vote against the extremist candidates.

Video of the line during the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SblCuZVOk8s
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #911 on: April 22, 2017, 08:26:32 PM »

I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster



But they have it at

FIllon 22.09%
Le Pen 21.75%
Melenchon 21.11%
Macron 19.95%
Hamon 7.04%

This is how much the candidates are talked about on social medias. Every iteration of "Fillon, give the money back!", which has become an actual meme online in the form of "Rends l'argent", is credited to Fillon.
On the other hand, his voters are usually older than the general population, and are thus less active online.
I can imagine loads of people are talking about him online though.
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Vosem
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« Reply #912 on: April 22, 2017, 09:52:13 PM »


You were for Hamon, yes?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #913 on: April 22, 2017, 09:57:53 PM »


Bien sūr. Wink
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rob in cal
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« Reply #914 on: April 22, 2017, 10:11:56 PM »

 Le Pen has reached about 36% chance to win the presidency on predictit, which really seems ridiculous.  I thought I was so smart betting against her at 28%, thinking the markets weren't going higher than that. Should have waited. Macron the favorite in the high 50's. I put a few dollars on him to win, but I've got about 150 dollars on Le Pen to not win the presidency at that 28% level (meaning I profit about 42 dollars if she loses either tomorrow or in two weeks.)
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #915 on: April 22, 2017, 10:19:46 PM »

Le Pen has reached about 36% chance to win the presidency on predictit, which really seems ridiculous.  I thought I was so smart betting against her at 28%, thinking the markets weren't going higher than that. Should have waited. Macron the favorite in the high 50's. I put a few dollars on him to win, but I've got about 150 dollars on Le Pen to not win the presidency at that 28% level (meaning I profit about 42 dollars if she loses either tomorrow or in two weeks.)
Call it the Brexit or Trump effect, whatever really. People are terrified it will happen again, I guess. Oddly enough the polls have called Austria's election, Italy's vote, and Turkey's referendum.
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Intell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #916 on: April 22, 2017, 10:34:49 PM »


How do you think your area will go?

Also how does Ivry-sur-Seine go, I have family that live there?
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Tirnam
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« Reply #917 on: April 22, 2017, 10:46:33 PM »

La Libre (Belgium) published a poll today, which is quite suprisingly. Dont know how trustful it is

Le Pen 26%
FIllon 22%
Macron 21%
Melenchon 17%

http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c


Nothing is more simple than to call a Belgian newspaper when French media must remain quiet and tell them: "I have a news for you". In the past elections they published completely false informations (e.g. in 2012 they published an exit poll at 5pm which showed Hollande at 55% despite the fact that French pollsters repeated again and again that no exit poll was conducted).
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #918 on: April 22, 2017, 10:46:52 PM »


Ivry has a strong PCF tradition (has only had communist mayors since the 1920s). It will vote for Melenchon with Macron second.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #919 on: April 22, 2017, 11:07:34 PM »


French expats in Los Angeles? Probably Fillon, though FBM should do well there.

The city my family lives in is a typical middle-class West Parisian suburb, so Fillon will easily win there. FN does better there than in the neighboring towns, but still worse than nationally.

My mom's hometown in Savoy will probably go for Panzergirl.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #920 on: April 23, 2017, 01:47:37 AM »

I voted!
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Donnie
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« Reply #921 on: April 23, 2017, 02:34:02 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2017, 02:44:12 AM by Donnie »

Final prediction:

25% Le Pen
23% Fillon
-----------------
23% Macron
17% Melenchon
  7% Hamon
  3% Dupont
  2% Others

How does Fillon pull 4% extra out of nowhere?

Looks like a 1-2% last minute shift of centrist voters from Macron to Fillon (Paris attack??).
A good informed friend of mine from France (who supports and campaings for Macron btw) is confirming me that this is the trend since yesterday.
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Proudconnh
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« Reply #922 on: April 23, 2017, 02:54:32 AM »

Fillon strikes me as a sort of French Richard Nixon.

This whole election is like the US in 1968
An unpopular left wing incumbent who didn't run
An inspiring young liberal is performing well
The official left wing candidate is mired in backlash from the base
A far right winger playing off pent up anger
And of course the center right candidate who has a history of ethics issues

I swear I'm not crazy.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #923 on: April 23, 2017, 04:28:31 AM »

In my polling station turnout seems to be important, 30% at 11.30 am, in a city with higher abstention rate than the national average
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Tirnam
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« Reply #924 on: April 23, 2017, 05:03:46 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2017, 05:07:20 AM by Tirnam »

Turnout at noon nationwide: 28,54% (+0.25)

And in my polling station: 35.8%. In my city in 2012 turnout was 3pts lower than the national rate
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