2017 French Presidential Election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Besides, Mélenchon is probably overpolling a bit at this point.

Far Left candidates typically overpoll by a few points, yes. If usual patterns apply then he would need to be a few points inside the cut in the polls rather than on the cusp or a few below... of course this is a tendency rather than a rule (a critical distinction as we have all learned in recent years).

[Mike88]

I found in a portuguese blogue this graphic which shows the support of immigrant sons to the different candidates: (Macron, Fillon and Hamon aren't in it, so don't know if it's shows an acurate picture but here goes.)



Portuguese immigrant descent are more likely to vote Le Pen... Yikes

That's from the 2012 election.

Ahhh. Ok. Sorry about that. In fact, the graphic has Bayron and Sarkozy on it and they aren't candidates this time around...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I found in a portuguese blogue this graphic which shows the support of immigrant sons to the different candidates: (Macron, Fillon and Hamon aren't in it, so don't know if it's shows an acurate picture but here goes.)



Portuguese immigrant descent are more likely to vote Le Pen... Yikes

...and Italians right behind. What the f**k.

[Babeuf]

Based on the title of the chart it appears to be a poll from some point in 2016 when all those candidacies were plausible.

[rob in cal]

   Could the high score of Portugese and Italian immigrant descendants (assuming the poll has some validity) for Le Pen be related to the working class status of many of them?

[Tirnam]

About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them.

Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious.

Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Facebook targets 30,000 fake France accounts before election
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/facebook-targets-30000-fake-france-accounts-election-46793944

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[Tirnam]

500,000 people have received two electoral card, meaning that they are registered to vote in two cities.

They could theoretically vote two times even if they would risk up to two years of imprisonment and a €15,000 fine.

[Antonio the Sixth]

About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them.

Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious.

Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie.

This is just amazing. I mean wow.

[Bumaye]

So looking at the lastest polls from BVA, Odoxa and Ipsos they all show the same situation for the 2nd round: 
 
Macron > Mélenchon > Fillon > Le Pen 
 
Let's me sleep quite well I have to say. Especially because I could see the center and left candidates over perform because of Hamon-supporters who see that he has no chance.

[Hydera]

   Could the high score of Portugese and Italian immigrant descendants (assuming the poll has some validity) for Le Pen be related to the working class status of many of them?

Its not different from that in the US.  Italians in the US tend to average between lower middle and middle-middle income. competition from immigrants have been a huge factor in why they tend to hold anti immigration attitudes.

[windjammer]

About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them.

Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious.

Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie.

This is just amazing. I mean wow.

He's not only corrupt, but a big cretin as well.

[Kringla Heimsins]

About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them.

Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious.

Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie.

This is just amazing. I mean wow.

He's not only corrupt, but a big cretin as well.

Not only is he a mythomaniac, he is also a kleptomaniac. We already have enough Presidents with pathological mental illnesses in the world right now!

[The Other Castro]

PredictIt odds:

Next President of France:
Macron - 54%
Le Pen - 29%
Mélenchon - 15%
Fillon - 12%

Odds of making the top 2:
Le Pen - 87%
Macron - 68%
Mélenchon - 28%
Fillon - 16%

[rob in cal]

  How on earth are the Le Pen odds to win the presidency so high?

[MAINEiac4434]

  How on earth are the Le Pen odds to win the presidency so high?

No one wants to give her no chance after Brexit and Trump.

[DL]

  How on earth are the Le Pen odds to win the presidency so high?

No one wants to give her no chance after Brexit and Trump.

That's an absurd comparison, polls on Brexit said it was going to be very close and half the polls in the final week had Brexit ahead. It's a myth that polls ever said a Remain win was guaranteed. Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%. How can anyone compare that to France where every poll has had LePen losing the second round by 20 points or more and very poll says that over 60% of the French would never vote for LePen under any circumstances

[adma]

Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%.

And France has no Electoral College, to boot.

[Beet]

Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%.

And France has no Electoral College, to boot.

Sure, California helped the national polls save face. But France doesn't have any California's. The whole place is one giant Midwest. So it's more akin to Brexit. The far right always under polls in Europe. Le Pen will win for sure.

[MalaspinaGold]

Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%.

And France has no Electoral College, to boot.

Sure, California helped the national polls save face. But France doesn't have any California's. The whole place is one giant Midwest. So it's more akin to Brexit. The far right always under polls in Europe. Le Pen will win for sure.

Delete your account.

[Maxwell]

Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%.

And France has no Electoral College, to boot.

Sure, California helped the national polls save face. But France doesn't have any California's. The whole place is one giant Midwest. So it's more akin to Brexit. The far right always under polls in Europe. Le Pen will win for sure.

tell that to Geert Wilders.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The whole place is one giant Midwest.

hahahaha wtf

[Zinneke]

The whole place is one giant Midwest.

hahahaha wtf

And I thought the comparisons to Texas were crazy.

Emigration is a real issue in France though, I think the only two to have mentioned it are NKM in the primary and Macron.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So from following the news, I would have to think that Le Pen and Macron are going to be advancing. However, let's entertain the thought that Melenchon surges, and it's him and Le Pen in the final round. Who would be likely to win?

Polls say Mélenchon, but I think it would be close.

[RodPresident]

I'm Melenchon supporter, but I think that if one goes to run-off against him is Macron and not Panzer Girl. Fillon pragmatic voters will go to Macron, while FN scandals will help other anti-establishment candidates (NDA, Asselineau) and even to Mélenchon.