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Author Topic: Norway election, 11th September 2017  (Read 10607 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: March 21, 2017, 09:08:24 pm »

this poll is interesting:

Labour: 33.7
Hoyre: 20.1
Centre: 14.3
Progress: 11.1
Christian Democrats: 5.1
Venstre: 4.3
Socialist Left: 4.1
Red: 2.8
Greens: 2.7
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« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2017, 09:25:39 pm »

So we can expect a return to the Ap-C coalition?
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2017, 12:46:36 am »

Why are Progress polling so badly? Junior coalition partner syndrome?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2017, 07:36:05 am »

The long-term reason is that they have not really done much in government. It's worth noting that the Progress Party's election programme was kind of insane: namely, it called for just privatising everything and abolishing the Oil Fund, then spending all the profits on a big infrastructure binge and huge tax cuts all over the place. Though there has been record dipping into the oil fund this government, the realities of low oil prices and being tied to the more cautious Hoyre meant these dreams were not reached. Not to mention the reliance on Venstre and Christian Democrats, who routinely pooh-pooh any populist stuff that Progress can think of.

The short-term reason is the young leader of the Centre Party is stealing their anti-EEA schtick. Except whereas Progress hate taxes, Centre hate wolves and urban folk.
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2017, 07:40:18 am »

I also find that uncertainty around the 4 percent threshold quite interesting.
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2017, 08:11:24 am »

venstre below threshold would be lovely. how green party got 1 mp with 2.8% last time?
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Diouf
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2017, 08:37:11 am »

venstre below threshold would be lovely. how green party got 1 mp with 2.8% last time?

They won a constituency seat in the Oslo multimember-constituency due to getting 5.6% of the vote there. In Norway most of the seats (150) are distributed proportionally inside each constituency, while only 19 seats are leveling seats to make the seat distribution match the vote distribution better on a national level for parties winning more than 4%. Unlike in Denmark, winning a constituency seat does not make you eligible for your share of the seats on the national level.
Oslo is the largest constituency with 18 constituency seats and 1 leveling seat. The Greens could therefore easily win a seat again if they match their percentage in Oslo. Also the Red's best chance is probably a constituency seat in Oslo. Had there been a 19th constituency seat in Oslo in 2013, the Reds would have won it. Also Venstre and the Socialist Left would win seats in Oslo even if they dip just below 4% nationally. Perhaps also in Hordaland.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 08:53:22 am by Diouf »Logged

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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2017, 09:42:48 am »

Labor has finished first in seats and votes in every election since 1927. That is insane.

Would they be considered the single most successful party in a democracy?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2017, 09:43:12 am »

Being more inept than the PVV, truly an achievement. Tip of the hat, Progress.
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« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2017, 09:46:50 am »

Labor has finished first in seats and votes in every election since 1927. That is insane.

Would they be considered the single most successful party in a democracy?

regarding numeric "victories" maybe, otherwise i would argue PRI/japanese lib-dems are better examples,
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« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2017, 10:40:08 am »

Labor has finished first in seats and votes in every election since 1927. That is insane.

Would they be considered the single most successful party in a democracy?

Depends. Norwegian Labour has always been first in seats but not always led government. I think the Japanese LDP (counting only since WWII) and maybe Fianna Fail have been in government for more time.
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2017, 03:11:39 pm »

this poll is interesting:
Labour: 33.7
Hoyre: 20.1
Centre: 14.3
Progress: 11.1
Christian Democrats: 5.1
Venstre: 4.3
Socialist Left: 4.1
Red: 2.8
Greens: 2.7


Compared to the 2013 election and the local elections in 2015:

Poll  2017  2015       ch     2013   ch
AP:  33.7   33.6     +0.1    30.8  +2.9
H:    20.1   23.4     -3.3     26.8   -6.7
SP:  14.3     8.0    +6.3       5.5   +8.8
FrP: 11.1   10.3    +0.8      16.3   -5.2
KrF:   5.1    5.6     -0.5        5.6   -0.5
V:      4.3    5.0    - 0.7        5.2   -0.9
SV:    4.1    4.0    +0.1        4.1     0.0
Rdt: 2.8    2.2    +0.6        1.1   +1.7
MdG: 2.7    5.0     -2.3        2.8    -0.1


so some fairly big changes, but largely similar to the local elections 2 years ago, the big exception being a drop for the Greens, although their share in polling did increase in the run up to the last election.

apart from their spike in 1993 in the run up to the EU referendum, SP haven't done this well since the 1970s
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« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2017, 03:42:48 pm »

The long-term reason is that they have not really done much in government. It's worth noting that the Progress Party's election programme was kind of insane: namely, it called for just privatising everything and abolishing the Oil Fund, then spending all the profits on a big infrastructure binge and huge tax cuts all over the place. Though there has been record dipping into the oil fund this government, the realities of low oil prices and being tied to the more cautious Hoyre meant these dreams were not reached. Not to mention the reliance on Venstre and Christian Democrats, who routinely pooh-pooh any populist stuff that Progress can think of.

The short-term reason is the young leader of the Centre Party is stealing their anti-EEA schtick. Except whereas Progress hate taxes, Centre hate wolves and urban folk.

A nice description of both the Progress Party and the Centre Party. The government's ongoing municipal reform, aimed to reduce the number of municipalities, has received much criticism, and is probably one of the key reasons behind the Centre Party's increase in support. The wolf debate has also received quite a bit of attention recently, and in addition to being a pretty important issue in intself for many farmers, it is also used by the party to emphasize how urban Oslo "elites" supposedly ignore the concerns of the periphery. I would be surprised if they were still polling these numbers in September though.

As for the EEA agreement, the Progress Party is actually still a supporter of it, and it has never featured prominently in any of their campaigns (although the EEA has received increased criticism within the party recently, it doesn't appear to be a major issue for its leaders.)
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 03:47:52 pm by Lurker »Logged
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« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2017, 05:27:10 pm »

Labor has finished first in seats and votes in every election since 1927. That is insane.

Would they be considered the single most successful party in a democracy?

It's arguable that Mexico was a democracy throughout most of those PRi wins.

regarding numeric "victories" maybe, otherwise i would argue PRI/japanese lib-dems are better examples,
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« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2017, 06:00:55 pm »

Good to see that the Norwegian Centre Party is doing just as well as the Swedish one. Smiley We Agrarians will rule Scandinavia once more!

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« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2017, 07:31:51 pm »

Good to see that the Norwegian Centre Party is doing just as well as the Swedish one. Smiley We Agrarians will rule Scandinavia once more!



And indeed force everyone to eat Swedish/Norwegian cheese (delete as appropriate).
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« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2017, 09:40:14 am »

Polling average by pollofpolls.no
The government and its support parties only receive 75 seats, while the opposition gets 94 seats. The Reds have increased to 2.9% nationally, and are now predicted to win 2 seats in Oslo on 8.4% of the vote. Venstre is below the threshold, but wins a seat in both Oslo and Akershus. The Greens retain their Oslo seat.

Ap 33,0% (61 seats)
Hyre 23,3 (42)
Frp 12,0 (22)
SV 4,2 (8 )
Sp 12,2 (22)
KrF 4,9 (9)
Venstre 3,1 (2)
MDG 3,0 (1)
Rdt 2,9 (2)
Others 1,6 (0)                        
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2017, 10:37:32 am »

The first party leader debate takes place tonight from Arendal. It will include the parties currently represented in parliament as well as Rdt/Red because polls show them winning 1/2 seats in Oslo. The polls have tightened in recent months, and some polls show a majority for the four parties in the current majority if Venstre can get just enough tactical votes from other centre-right parties to get above the 4% threshold.

However, even if the four parties just get another majority, it is not certain that the current situation with a Hyre-Frp government supported by Venstre and KrF will just continue. The relationsship between the two small parties and Frp is not very good, and especially the Christians are not comfortable with the current situation. Just this week KrF leader Knut Arild Hareide had another public feud with Frp immigration minister Sylvi Listhaug, and Hareide seems to prefer solutions without Frp in government. He would like a Hyre-KrF-Venstre government and could then maybe accept Frp as support party, but Frp has stated that they won't support a government they are not a part of. Hareide has proposed a centre-right government with Hyre, KrF, Venstre and Sp with the latter's Trygve Slagsvold Vedum as PM, but this was quickly rejected by Vadum, who prefer cooperation with Ap. Also these four parties don't look like they will get a majority. Another option for Hareide is to join a government with Ap and Sp, especially if the four current majority parties lose their majority. This could draw Ap closer to the middle and keep the socialists in SV and Rdt from any influence. The current polling average just gives these three parties a majority, but it will be tight.

The Greens are uncommitted and say they can work with anyone, except Frp. So we could end up in a situation like in Oslo after the last local elections where the Greens are the kingmakers. In that situation, they joined the centre-left parties and managed to get some significant environmental proposals adopted (carfree city center etc.). At the national level, it seems far more likely that they will join the centre-left parties as well, but I think Ap would rather work with the two centre-right parties than the Greens due to the radical green demands in relation to the oil and gas industry. Ap leader Jonas Gahr Stre has already rejected forming a government with the Greens for that reason, and I think he would really prefer not to depend on them.

Current polling average

Ap 30,0% (55 seats)
Hyre 24,6 (45)
Frp 13,1 (24)
SV 5,1 (9 )
Sp 10,6 (20)
KrF 5,3 (10)
Venstre 3,3 (2)
MDG 3,4 (2)
Rdt 2,7 (2)
Others 2,1 (0)

85 seats are needed for a majority.
Current majority parties: 81 seats
Opposition: 88 seats
Ap-Sp-KrF: 85 seats
Centre-right: 77 seats

pollofpolls.no
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2017, 11:20:33 am »

You can try NRKs election barometer to find out which party you prefer. https://www.nrk.no/valg/2017/valgomat/

I will translate the questions below:
The answers should be obvious from the emojis, but they are from left to right: Completely disagree, somewhat disagree, no attitude, somewhat agree, completely agree.

1. The state should raise taxes and duties to have enough money for public services
2. Drug addicts don't need punishments, they need help. Therefore, possesion of small drug doses for personal use should no longer be illegal.
3. The possibilities for drilling oil outside the coast of Lofoten, Vesterlen og Senja should be explored.
4. The 2016 police reform, which centralized the police in fewer police districts, was a bad idea and should be repealed.
5. We need to expand the defence budget so it reaches the 2% of GDP agreed upon in NATO
6. Parliament should set a limit for the number of children in a school class.
7. There are too many wolves in Norway, who cause damage. More of them should be shot.
8. The wealth tax makes it harder for Norwegian company owners to create jobs and should be reduced further.
9. Norway should quite the EEA.
10. We should limit the use of private companies in health care, schools and kindergardens.
11. The full-day school should be obligatory. This includes free shool meals, and means that (most) homework is done at the school with help from teachers/assistents.
12. All asylum seekers should be detained should be detained in closed centers until their identity has been completely checked.
13. It is a good thing with the "free health care choice" which allows patients to choose between private and public health care for treatment. Paid for by the public in both instances.
14. The politicians should start dismantling Norwegian oil production
15. Surrogate mothers should be allowed.
16. It has become to easy to hire people in temporary positions.
17. Unaccompanied asylum seekers aged 16-18 without a personal threat against them in their home country should be able to get a permanent stay in Norway.
18. We should keep and improve the "cash support" which allows families to get cash payments instead of getting a kindergarden spot for their child.
19. Big road projects, which will increase transportation by car, should be stopped.
20. It is important to keep a school subject called Christianity with dominant focus on that subject instead of a more general "religion" subject.
21. It is urgent that capitalism as our economic system is quickly phased out.
22. As a part of the current municipal reform, parliament should be able to force through mergers if the municipalities themselves can't reach the desired reduction.
23. It is more important that the big farms grow and produce more food than it is to keep small farms through the country.
24. A normal work day is too long and should be reduced to 6 hours.

Then at the end, the questions are lined up in the above order, and you can pick the most important issues for you. Then press "se resultat", and you will get your score.
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2017, 11:23:19 am »

My own result:
Frp 80%
Hyre 79%
Ap 66%

KrF
V
Sp
MdG
Rdt
SV
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2017, 01:12:17 pm »

I got MDG 76%, SV 75% and Rdt 67%, roughly equal with Ap.
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2017, 01:25:08 pm »

Ap 76%
SP 72%
MDG 69%
R-SV (tie)
KRF
H
V
FP
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DavidB.
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2017, 01:39:10 pm »

Ap 66%
Sp 59%
Frp 58%
H
MDG
KRF
V
R-SV tie

Would vote Frp anyway.
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2017, 01:57:28 pm »

V 71%
H - 70%
FRP - 64%
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parochial boy
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« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2017, 05:34:54 pm »

R - 76%
SV - 71%
MDG - 71%
AP
SP
KRF
V
H
FRP
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