Will Boris Johnson last to 2024?

[President Johnson]

Declining poll numbers, weak performances in the latest by-elections, Brexit chaos and the ongoing pandemic, in which he didn't even follow his own rules; it seems Boris Johnson under big pressure from all sides. Do you think his tenure will (at least) last to 2024, when the next regular election would take place. Or will the Tories run him out of town, or will there even be an election before 2024?

At this point, I lean towards saying No.

[OSR stands with Israel]

He unlike May probably wouldnt resign so Tories would not only have to issue a motion of no confidence against him but beat him in a Leadership election which likely wont happen

[gaiende]

Nope

If he loses the no confidence vote (or resigns) he can't stand in the leadership election.
He'll lose the VONC because if he doesn't they can't call another one for a year and if he's still there in mid-2023 the Tories are doomed

[CumbrianLefty]

Though don't forget that May won her VoNC, she still didn't last that long afterwards though.

[MABA 2020]

They'll get rid of him sometime next year, the public have clearly turned on him and the parliamentary party never liked him much to begin with. I do expect the next election to be 2023 at the earliest, but probably '24.

[Torrain]

At the moment, I can see two likely outcomes:

1. Boris limps on until the local elections in May. After a poor performance, the party puts pressure on him, and either ousts him by force or lets him retires. An open leadership election follows.

2. Boris is embroiled in another scandal, or new info comes to light on an existing vulnerability. The party pushes him out in the spring, once the worst of this years’ COVID/flu season is past, ensuring he, and not his replacement, gets the blame for any winter failings. In this scenario, I think a single candidate (probably Sunak, or an alternative unity candidate) is proposed, to get the whole mess done with asap.

That’s just based on existing data though. There may be a world where Labour infighting or a burst of good news for the government (new COVID treatments, solid economic figures etc) takes the focus off the sleaze narrative and buys Johnson some time. That’s hard to believe right now - but it wouldn’t be the first political resurrection for Johnson.

[beesley]

Building on what my friend above said, a lot of the dissatisfaction with him has now entered the territory where it is an actual 'problem' with him. Theresa May's election disaster and the initial problems of the Covid handling under Hancock's tenure were mistakes, but Boris being perennially sleazy and otherwise awful, and dissatisfaction with his handling of Covid which is fairly deep-seated (and worst of all, sagging poll numbers) has reached or is bound to reach the 'no way out' position that May's Brexit disaster was (although in a less drawn out way perhaps). Plus we have all the posturing and cabinet infighting to boot.

[Mr. Smith]

Major and Cameron weren't always expected to go the distances they did either.

Smith/Kinnock and Miliband never became PMs now did they.

TL,DR: Don't count out BoJo yet.

[beesley]

Major and Cameron weren't always expected to go the distances they did either.

Smith and Miliband never became PMs now did they.

TL,DR: Don't count out BoJo yet.

Both of your examples deal with election results after not having had periods as turbulent and dissatisfactory as Boris is having, and in Cameron's case there was no internal Tory challenge at all. (I assume you meant to say Kinnock rather than Smith). This is about the likelihood of Boris actually making that election. For our country's sake I hope that election is quite soon.

[Conservatopia]

I think Torrain has hit the nail on the head as usual. Whilst he could last to 2024, the odds are definitely stacked against him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Major and Cameron weren't always expected to go the distances they did either.

Smith and Miliband never became PMs now did they.

TL,DR: Don't count out BoJo yet.

I presume you mean Kinnock rather than Smith, given that Smith, rather famously, died two years into his term as Labour Leader and would certainly have become PM had he lived?

As a general rule I find it better not to make predictions about this kind of thing, but Johnson's approval ratings right now are truly foul and the last time a Prime Minister was able to turn things around from that sort of position was Thatcher in her first term: and this only because of an easy military victory against an actual fascist regime that had invaded British territory.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm looking from the outside in, and not terribly familiar with UK politics, but based on what I know I'm leaning no because it simply feels like he was the right guy for a certain moment and now that moment has passed. BoJo was the right guy to win a Tory majority in 2019 and "deliver Brexit". He's done that, and both sides of the British public seem to be over the Europe debate, so now he's left with a pretty mediocre handling of COVID and a pileup of corruption scandals to answer for.

As the pandemic comes to an end, I think the Tories will have the good sense to replace him with a fresh face. Maybe Rishi Sunak, he seems to get a lot of praise from the media and perhaps people who might vote Labour or Lib Dem against Boris, and it would be a big move on the Tories' part to pick a non-white Prime Minister (as I understand, Indians are a pretty swingy ethnic minority in the UK unlike Black or Pakistani Brits who are much more loyal to Labour, so having Sunak at the helm might help get that demographic on the Tories' side)

[mileslunn]

Depends on poll numbers.  Right now taking a hit over Christmas party last year at Downing Street, but if Tories recover, he will stay on.  If Labour continues to lead by decent margins through the whole year, then he is gone.  Despite bad Tory #'s right now, most who defected from the Tories have gone to undecided column, not Labour so its not impossible as time passes they return to Tories.  Boris' bigger danger is dissatisfied Tories stay home and not vote at all vs. them going over to Labour.  That was a big reason Tony Blair won big in 2001 is a lot of Tories just stayed home. 

For Labour, poll #'s may look good now, but its far from certain or even perhaps likely they won.  Obviously pushing Green #'s down would help and if smart they should even run paper thin candidates in constituencies where Liberal Democrats have a chance but they don't.  On other hand, Labour still relies heavily on younger voters and not sure Starmer is type who will excite them.  You need someone with a lot of charisma like Trudeau, Ardern, or Obama to bring young people out in big numbers and Starmer lacks this.  At same time he is more moderate than Corbyn so probably doesn't lose the over 50 vote as badly as Corbyn did. 

[LAB-LIB]

Major and Cameron weren't always expected to go the distances they did either.

Smith and Miliband never became PMs now did they.

TL,DR: Don't count out BoJo yet.

I think though that what might be the case is that 2019 was to Boris was what the 1992 election was to Major and what the 2015 election was to Cameron, and then what comes next is to Boris what Black Wednesday through the 1997 election was to Major and what UK voting to leave was to Cameron. That said, I'm not counting Boris out either - at least for now.

That was a big reason Tony Blair won big in 2001 is a lot of Tories just stayed home. 

Was this the case? I was under the impression that Blair won a lot of crossover support and a lot of Labour voters stayed home. I think the turnout was down in safe Labour seats, I think Sunderland South was something like 48% compared to the nationwide 59%, but that's just one seat. I do know that the swing to the Conservatives was much higher in the safe Labour seats than in the "New Labour" seats.

[kwabbit]

I think he can recover and still be a strong candidate in 2024. The outrage to the Covid impropriety seems like it should be localized. When the pandemic is over, I don’t think anyone will care. I think Johnson should ride it out; the British seem all to quick to throw away their PMs and party leaders. There is not too much attempt to just ride it out.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

He's certainly done, the stories have been in the news for too long, and every few days new revelations are leaked. The polls indicate the Tories will lose badly next election. He'll be dumped soon. The representatives elected for the Tories also monitor their re-election chances, and they'll realize that they have a better chance when Boris Johnson is gone and takes all the blame.

[Flyersfan232]

I think the queen has a better chance sto prince Charles dismayed at this rate

[CumbrianLefty]

I think he can recover and still be a strong candidate in 2024

Anything is possible, but past precedents are not encouraging for him.

[Zinneke]

The Met have really saved his bacon.

[Torrain]

The Met have really saved his bacon.

Not based on the Commons this evening. As ever - Johnson might survive, but it's not looking good for him right now, given the rebuke he's been shown by numerous members of his party, right in the public view.

[DL]

I think the main question is whether Johnson resigns before or after the Tories get annihilated in local elections in May

[mileslunn]

I think the main question is whether Johnson resigns before or after the Tories get annihilated in local elections in May

Polls already tightening although Labour still about 5-7 points ahead.  One problem with local elections is turnout tends to be terrible which is good for Tories.  Amongst older voters, Tories still have big lead while as usual Labour massive amongst millennials.  Real change since 2019 is Gen Xers who Tories won by over 10 points, but are now trailing amongst.  But I suspect if Johnson cannot regain lead by summer at latest party dumps him.  Most don't expect him to win as big as 2019 as Keir Starmer far harder to scare people as opposed to Corbyn and Brexit is done so many in North & Midlands who voted Tory just to get Brexit done but don't support them on other issues are probably gone. 

But thanks to age demographics and also Tory vote more efficient, many still believe they can come back with him, but if polls don't improve they will dump him as winning is what matters most.

[DL]

One problem with local elections is turnout tends to be terrible which is good for Tories. 

People said that midterms turnout always favours Republicans in the US - not so in 2018. There is a long patterns in the UK for gigantic backlashes in local elections against an unpopular party in power at Westminster. When the Tories were very unpopular at various points under Cameron - they got shellacked in the locals.

[DL]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+4)
CON: 33% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-1)

via
@SavantaComRes
, 28 - 30 Jan
Chgs. w/ 23 Jan

[EastAnglianLefty]

Realistically it's clear he's an anchor on Tory support, and the longer he hangs around the worse their prospects after he's gone (because failing to act implicitly condones his actions.) For reasons that aren't entirely clear, the Conservative parliamentary party refuses to accept this and ignores any evidence demonstrating this, such as polling or the North Shropshire by-election.

It's possible that the local elections will remove the scales from their eyes, but I don't think it's a racing certainty any longer.