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| | |-+  Norway election, 11th September 2017
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Author Topic: Norway election, 11th September 2017  (Read 8439 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #100 on: September 11, 2017, 02:37:55 pm »
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How a night like this makes a Catholic Dutch election junkie feel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R2vT8EM2ac


Cheesy Cheesy
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DavidB.
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« Reply #101 on: September 11, 2017, 02:38:49 pm »
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Oslo: 28.5% Ap, 26.7% H.
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Diouf
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« Reply #102 on: September 11, 2017, 02:39:14 pm »
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KrF is probably more likely to have voters who have turned up today, so based on that, I would also think they are the most likely to cross the threshold
Why? Just curious.

Older, less educated voters than both of the two other parties.

Looked at 2013 numbers:

KrF early voting: 45 297 Voting day: 113 178
V  early voting: 43 421 Voting day: 104 854
MDG early voting 29 255 Voting day: 49 897

Venstre actually around equal to KrF in share of early voting, but early voting makes up a clearly bigger share of MDG votes in 2013.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #103 on: September 11, 2017, 02:40:05 pm »
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Oslo: 28.5% Ap, 26.7% H.

How does that compare to past elections and which party is that good for?
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The Saint
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« Reply #104 on: September 11, 2017, 02:41:11 pm »
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Where can I see the live results?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #105 on: September 11, 2017, 02:42:43 pm »
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Where can I see the live results?

Here it is

https://www.valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2017
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The Saint
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« Reply #106 on: September 11, 2017, 02:43:04 pm »
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Thanks!
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DavidB.
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« Reply #107 on: September 11, 2017, 02:43:16 pm »
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Thank you, Diouf. With early voters I never know... it could theoretically also be the case that older, less mobile voters are more inclined to vote early.

Ap on track for its second-worst result ever (2001 was worse).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #108 on: September 11, 2017, 02:48:01 pm »
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Oslo: 28.5% Ap, 26.7% H.

How does that compare to past elections and which party is that good for?
Oslo is usually a bit of a bellwether. I would say this largely confirms the national view, maybe a bit better for Ap. It was 30.4%-29.8% in 2013, so in Oslo the gap between Ap and H has increased whereas nationally it should have decreased in favor of H, but that is very well possible if one assumes that the government's vote held up better in rural areas and outside Oslo (but not sure if that's true, it may not be true...). Don't have figures for the blocs in Oslo. Also don't know whether these are complete or partial results.

Venstre now in for the first time, and suddenly it's 90-79.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2017, 02:52:49 pm by DavidB. »Logged
jaichind
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« Reply #109 on: September 11, 2017, 02:51:15 pm »
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V back above 4% in real count ...
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jaichind
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« Reply #110 on: September 11, 2017, 02:54:22 pm »
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TV2 projection now has it Ap 26.9%  H 26.1%
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #111 on: September 11, 2017, 02:57:14 pm »
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Trondheim Ap 33 vs. H 21.7, 2013 36.8-24.2.
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jaichind
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« Reply #112 on: September 11, 2017, 02:58:13 pm »
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Something does not compute

If you take a snip-it of the results page

https://www.valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2017

Kristelig Folkeparti   66 094   4,3%   -1,3 pp   -1,3
Venstre                  54 251   4,0%   -1,2 pp   -0,9

66094/54251 is way off from 4.3%/4.0%.  How are they computing these vote shares ?
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
DavidB.
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« Reply #113 on: September 11, 2017, 03:05:22 pm »
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Huh, you're right.

These small changes are really weird to my Dutch eyes. And Ap being the Biggest Loser as opposition leaders is just embarrassing.

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Diouf
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« Reply #114 on: September 11, 2017, 03:05:58 pm »
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Immigration Minister Sylvi Listhaug having a great election. Frp close to being the largest party in her district, Møre & Romsdal, where 62,2% of the votes are counted. Frp is at 22,8% (+2,8%), Høyre at 23.7% (-2,5%), Ap at 20,8% (-4,3%).
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jaichind
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« Reply #115 on: September 11, 2017, 03:07:41 pm »
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http://www.tv2.no/politikk/valg/2017/stortingsvalg

has

KRF   4.5%   (-1.1)      72 417   8   (-2)
V   3.7%   (-1.6)      58 925   7   (-2)

where the vote shares are consistent  with votes but then how does V get 7 seats if they are at 3.7% which is well below 4%.  These results pages lack the most basic QC which excel should be able to give you.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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« Reply #116 on: September 11, 2017, 03:10:05 pm »
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venstre is obviously below threshold
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DavidB.
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« Reply #117 on: September 11, 2017, 03:13:18 pm »
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V even under the threshold in Bergen, Norway's second city: 3.9%. They got 6.9% there in 2013. If these are not partial results, I don't see how they're not finished.
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jaichind
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« Reply #118 on: September 11, 2017, 03:15:06 pm »
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http://www.tv2.no/politikk/valg/2017/stortingsvalg

has

KRF   4.5%   (-1.1)      72 417   8   (-2)
V   3.7%   (-1.6)      58 925   7   (-2)

where the vote shares are consistent  with votes but then how does V get 7 seats if they are at 3.7% which is well below 4%.  These results pages lack the most basic QC which excel should be able to give you.

I see what is going on.  The 7 seats for V is not from its current vote share but the TV2 projection.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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Diouf
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« Reply #119 on: September 11, 2017, 03:17:27 pm »
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KrF will probably just cross the threshold, but hard to see them avoid getting their worst result since its two first in 1933 and 1936.

Hareide just giving his speech now. Claiming that the election became a presidential contest between Støre and Solberg (Funny, how both of their parties are down then, eh?) and that the electoral games have played too big a part (Would perhaps have been avoided if you had been clearer about what you wanted, and then not change it 4 days before the election).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #120 on: September 11, 2017, 03:22:47 pm »
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Based on the current not final results it is 83-84 for the government but if you add the one Green and one Red that would give 85-84 for the opposition.  Is it a given the Greens and Reds will back Labour as I think philosophically they are closer to them or perhaps if the centre-right is no longer viable will the Christian Democrats then support Labour just to keep them in the middle.
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jaichind
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« Reply #121 on: September 11, 2017, 03:25:16 pm »
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V has been rising and is up to 3.81% now
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #122 on: September 11, 2017, 03:27:02 pm »
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Based on the current not final results it is 83-84 for the government but if you add the one Green and one Red that would give 85-84 for the opposition.  Is it a given the Greens and Reds will back Labour as I think philosophically they are closer to them or perhaps if the centre-right is no longer viable will the Christian Democrats then support Labour just to keep them in the middle.

We are at a point where it entirely depends upon V. If they break 4%, the government has a majority. If they don't, the opposition has a incredibly weak 85 seat majority.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #123 on: September 11, 2017, 03:28:35 pm »
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Based on the current not final results it is 83-84 for the government but if you add the one Green and one Red that would give 85-84 for the opposition.  Is it a given the Greens and Reds will back Labour as I think philosophically they are closer to them or perhaps if the centre-right is no longer viable will the Christian Democrats then support Labour just to keep them in the middle.

We are at a point where it entirely depends upon V. If they break 4%, the government has a majority. If they don't, the opposition has a incredibly weak 85 seat majority.

Wouldn't Labour if V fails to crack the 4% be better to ask the Christian Democrats to join them than rely on the Reds and the Greens?  Off course if V cracks the 4% this becomes a mute point.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #124 on: September 11, 2017, 03:29:17 pm »
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We are at a point where it entirely depends upon V. If they break 4%, the government has a majority. If they don't, the opposition has a incredibly weak 85 seat majority.
Yeah, this. And even if the government wins a majority, it will be a very thin one, completely depending on the V MPs, who know how supporting the previous government almost ruined their party. Will be difficult to keep together. Probably better if H do it alone for the sake of stability, but FrP won't be okay with that.
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