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Author Topic: Norway election, 11th September 2017  (Read 8348 times)
mvd10
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« Reply #25 on: August 14, 2017, 06:07:29 pm »
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82% H
78% V
77% FRP
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« Reply #26 on: August 15, 2017, 03:14:44 pm »
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The debate yesterday was mostly about economic issues, particularly taxation, and "Norwegian values". It wasn't particularly well moderated and there was too much talking over each other. The last part mostly just became "Here's what I think is important, this is a crucial Norwegian value", with Red talking about how it was a crucial Norwegian value with financial sovereignty so economic links to the EU should be cut, KrF talking about how Christian values were important and we shouldn't do biotech etc. So it became a shattered part without much focus, and when the focus was shortly on immigration, it was mostly horrible points about the tone of the debate etc.

It was interesting/brave to see that Ap so clearly talk about raising taxes, so this gave a quite good and relatively clear debate between the blocs, although notably Hareide from KrF said that while the tax cuts during this term was right, it was now time to focus on strengthening public services and not make further tax cuts. Venstre seem much more in line with the government economically on the overall ideas about taxes, privatization etc.
Sp's leader Vadum clearly tried to steal voters from Frp with attacks on their record on taxation, the relationship to EU while also making quite tough statements on immigration. However, he didn't seem very sharp, and talked suprisingly little about decentralization and wolves.
KrF and FrP unsurprisingly clashed the hardest on immigration, and based on this debate, you wouldn't think the two could be a part of the same majority again.

A new Norstat poll for NRK with some interesting movements. A narrow majority (85-84) for the four current majority parties despite Venstre not being over the threshold (although getting close with 3.9%). Both Ap and Sp drop significantly, while the parties to their left, particularly the Greens, are on the rise. This poll means that in the polling average. both Venstre and the Greens are now closing in on the threshold, both rising to 3.6%.
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Çråbçæk2784
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« Reply #27 on: August 20, 2017, 10:29:54 am »
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Rødt seems to be in a bit of a mini-surge, and are convincingly above the threshold in a new TNS poll.
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« Reply #28 on: August 20, 2017, 01:11:43 pm »
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78% AP
69% SP
60% H
MDG-KRF
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« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2017, 03:08:18 pm »
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Venstre leader Trine Skei Grande now promises that the party will support any centre-right/right-wing government over one which includes Ap. This could be a quite wise move, at least in the short term, for a party that is close to the threshold, as it certainly means that voters who prefer a centre-right government could feel safe in lending them a tactical vote. Some moderate heroes or those with strong Frp-antipathies might not like it, but they are probably a smaller group and I would guess that many has already left the party. Venstre has not been as hesitant as KrF in working with FrP, but until now they have not ruled out cooperation with the centre-left parties. Grande still says that she would prefer a Høyre-Venstre-KrF government to a continued Høyre-FrP, but if an agreement can't be reached on the first option, she would continue to prefer the latter over working with Ap and the other left-wing parties.
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« Reply #30 on: August 21, 2017, 03:26:35 pm »
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Venstre leader Trine Skei Grande now promises that the party will support any centre-right/right-wing government over one which includes Ap. This could be a quite wise move, at least in the short term, for a party that is close to the threshold, as it certainly means that voters who prefer a centre-right government could feel safe in lending them a tactical vote. Some moderate heroes or those with strong Frp-antipathies might not like it, but they are probably a smaller group and I would guess that many has already left the party. Venstre has not been as hesitant as KrF in working with FrP, but until now they have not ruled out cooperation with the centre-left parties. Grande still says that she would prefer a Høyre-Venstre-KrF government to a continued Høyre-FrP, but if an agreement can't be reached on the first option, she would continue to prefer the latter over working with Ap and the other left-wing parties.

Seems tactically smart.  My question is MDG and R are not part of either one but if either are both cross the 4% line wouldn't the throw their support behind a Labour led.  For the centre-right coalition I am thinking they absolutely need the Venstre to cross the 4% line while hope MDG and R stay below it while for the centre-left coalition they may not rely on either but I cannot see MDG or R allowing a centre-right to go through.  The only way the centre-right could survive in that scenario is convince the Centre Party to switch allegiances but not sure how likely that is.  I don't see why MDG couldn't join the centre-left one if they cross the 4% mark and perhaps maybe if they agree to that you might get some tactical voting.  R is a bit trickier as they are on the extreme left and I am not sure AP wants to be relying on them, nonetheless if they held the balance of power, it is pretty obvious which way they would go.
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« Reply #31 on: August 22, 2017, 10:18:56 am »
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My question is MDG and R are not part of either one but if either are both cross the 4% line wouldn't the throw their support behind a Labour led.  For the centre-right coalition I am thinking they absolutely need the Venstre to cross the 4% line while hope MDG and R stay below it while for the centre-left coalition they may not rely on either but I cannot see MDG or R allowing a centre-right to go through.  The only way the centre-right could survive in that scenario is convince the Centre Party to switch allegiances but not sure how likely that is.  I don't see why MDG couldn't join the centre-left one if they cross the 4% mark and perhaps maybe if they agree to that you might get some tactical voting.  R is a bit trickier as they are on the extreme left and I am not sure AP wants to be relying on them, nonetheless if they held the balance of power, it is pretty obvious which way they would go.

R will without a doubt support a Labour-led coalition, although Støre would prefer not to be reliant on their votes. If such a scenario occurs, he will probably work heavily with KrF to avoid dependence on them. MDG has not commited to the left like R, but I have little doubt that they will end up supporting a left-wing coalition if they become king makers. But again, I think Støre will try quite hard to lure KrF instead. There is certainly movement of voters from Ap to MDG, but I think this is as much leftists who are disappointed with Støre's focus on the center than people who vote tactically. You are right that a clear commitment to the centre-left from MDG might convince more leftists to lend them a tactical vote, but so far it seems like they keep their mantra of not committing, which is used locally as well. Also, they are perhaps disappointed that Støre has already ruled them out as a coalition party.

The Centre Party has quite clearly rejected the overtures from KrF to join a centre-right government, so if the current four majority parties lose their majority, I think there is very little chance of a centre-right government.
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« Reply #32 on: August 22, 2017, 01:22:13 pm »
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My question is MDG and R are not part of either one but if either are both cross the 4% line wouldn't the throw their support behind a Labour led.  For the centre-right coalition I am thinking they absolutely need the Venstre to cross the 4% line while hope MDG and R stay below it while for the centre-left coalition they may not rely on either but I cannot see MDG or R allowing a centre-right to go through.  The only way the centre-right could survive in that scenario is convince the Centre Party to switch allegiances but not sure how likely that is.  I don't see why MDG couldn't join the centre-left one if they cross the 4% mark and perhaps maybe if they agree to that you might get some tactical voting.  R is a bit trickier as they are on the extreme left and I am not sure AP wants to be relying on them, nonetheless if they held the balance of power, it is pretty obvious which way they would go.

R will without a doubt support a Labour-led coalition, although Støre would prefer not to be reliant on their votes. If such a scenario occurs, he will probably work heavily with KrF to avoid dependence on them. MDG has not commited to the left like R, but I have little doubt that they will end up supporting a left-wing coalition if they become king makers. But again, I think Støre will try quite hard to lure KrF instead. There is certainly movement of voters from Ap to MDG, but I think this is as much leftists who are disappointed with Støre's focus on the center than people who vote tactically. You are right that a clear commitment to the centre-left from MDG might convince more leftists to lend them a tactical vote, but so far it seems like they keep their mantra of not committing, which is used locally as well. Also, they are perhaps disappointed that Støre has already ruled them out as a coalition party.

The Centre Party has quite clearly rejected the overtures from KrF to join a centre-right government, so if the current four majority parties lose their majority, I think there is very little chance of a centre-right government.

So if a centre-right majority becomes mathematically impossible, would the KrF consider supporting a Labour led coalition in order to pull them towards the centre as opposed to having them pulled left.

My understanding is if the Liberals can crack the 4% and the Reds and MDG stay under 4% it's a toss up and could go either way.  But if the Liberals fall below 4% or either the R or MDG cracks it, then it pretty much guarantees a centre-left government.  Is this correct?
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« Reply #33 on: August 23, 2017, 09:44:56 am »
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So if a centre-right majority becomes mathematically impossible, would the KrF consider supporting a Labour led coalition in order to pull them towards the centre as opposed to having them pulled left.

The KrF's choice after the election will likely be very important, even with a continued majority for the four current majority parties. They have made clear that they prefer a centre-right government (Høyre - KrF - Venstre), but it is unlikely that these parties will get a majority, even if then include Sp, who has so far rejected these ideas. So if Frp as expected rejects this centre-right government without them, the question is whether KrP will continue to support a Høyre-Frp government (probably in an looser form than now) or cross the floor and team up with Ap and Sp. If the centre-left parties win a majority, the latter move becomes easier and more legitimate as they can use the argument of keeping Rødt and SV out of influence.

My understanding is if the Liberals can crack the 4% and the Reds and MDG stay under 4% it's a toss up and could go either way.  But if the Liberals fall below 4% or either the R or MDG cracks it, then it pretty much guarantees a centre-left government.  Is this correct?

Well, not guarantees. NRKs Norstat poll from last week showed a 85-84 majority for the right-wing parties with Venstre at 3,9% and 3 seats. But yes, Venstre above the threshold gives the right wing parties a decent chance, while Rødt and/or MDG above it makes a centre-left government very likely. And all three parties seem to be moving upward so far during the campaign. In the polloffpolls.no average, MDG is now at 3.9%, Venstre at 3.7% and Rødt and 3,0%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: August 24, 2017, 08:37:14 am »
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FRP 80
H    70
V    58
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« Reply #35 on: August 24, 2017, 08:38:03 am »
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It would seem that for the ruling alliance to win would require V to cross 4% and both MDG and R to not cross 4%.
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« Reply #36 on: August 26, 2017, 07:47:01 am »
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Some news from recent days in the campaign.

Ap voters strongly prefer cooperation with SV over KrF
. In an InFact poll for VG, 60.9% of Ap voters prefer cooperation with SV over KrF, while only 17.3% prefer cooperation with KrF over SV. This fact probably helps explain why Ap is leaking voters left; they are dissatisfied with Støre's centrist tendencies. In the pollofpolls.no average, Ap is down 3% since June while SV, MDG and Rødt are all up 0.7-1%.

Sp wants to limit Støre's proposed tax increases. Sp leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum has said that Ap's proposed tax increases of 15 billion NOK are too high, and that they would prefer a level around half of that. Sp also states that the focus should be on cutting excises and duties, and raising taxes for the rich. He is particularly angry about the raised diesel duty in last year's budget, claiming that this reflected a Oslo-centric world view, while people in many part of Norway need a car.

Frp proposes break with human rights conventions. Immigration minister Sylvi Listhaug proposes that Norway should make a break with the ECHR, which limits the actions that can be taken in immigration policies, e.g. sending out criminal immigrants, creating closed centers for asylum seekers with undisclosed identity as well as for rejected asylum seekers until they can be sent out. None of the other parties support this, not even Høyre.
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« Reply #37 on: August 27, 2017, 05:11:43 am »
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Jonas Gahr Støre warms up to Tuesday's Prime Minister Debate by accusing Erna Solberg of "making Norway a colder and harder society". According to Støre, she has done this by taking a "right wing populist party" into the government. He attacks Immigration Minister Sylvi Listhaug for her policies and rhetorics, and says that Solberg has allowed her and Frp to lower Norway's standards. Støre makes clear that an Ap-led government will change that:"My promise to the voters is clear. In a government led by me, we will bring back decency in the way we talk about other humans. For me, this election is a choice between different value sets".

Quite interesting attack from Støre. Obviously a big chunk of voters will agree with this criticism, but what about the median voter? Støre might attract some of the Frp-critical voters from Venstre and Krf, but other than that, this seems mostly likely a way for Ap to try to regain some of their leaking left-wing voters by standing up to the Frp. However, if this gets as much attention as I expect, including dominating the debate on Tuesday, then I think it could very likely help the government's chances of staying in power. Perhaps I'm just too influenced by Danish events, where it did not exactly help Social Democrats winning elections, when they attacked DPP for their tone on immigration.
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« Reply #38 on: August 27, 2017, 07:02:59 am »
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Just realised there will be a Sami Parliament election as well? Anything interesting happening with that?
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« Reply #39 on: August 29, 2017, 03:09:46 pm »
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Ap keeps dropping like a stone in polls. In a new Norstat poll for NRK, Høyre is bigger than Ap. Erna Solberg's party gets 25.7%, while Støre's Ap gets 24.4%. If this materialises in the election, it will be the first time since 1924 that Høyre is bigger than Ap. Despite Venstre being below the threshold and the Greens above it, the current four majority parties get 85 seats while the combined opposition gets 84 seats. The poll also shows that Solberg is the preferred PM for 46,8% while 36,8% prefer Støre.

How would Aps 2013 voters vote today according to the poll. Still a lot of doubters.

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« Reply #40 on: August 29, 2017, 03:35:04 pm »
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Just realised there will be a Sami Parliament election as well? Anything interesting happening with that?

From what I can read, it seems like the last year has been quite chaotic in Sami politics. The minority Norwegian Sami Association government lost its majority in parliament in December 2016, and was replaced by a coalition of Ap, Høyre and Arja. However, there have been plenty of internal troubles in Ap, and the new government leader Vibeke Larsen was very controversial. She doesn't really speak Sami, and Ap chose Ronny Wilhelmsen as their lead candidate for the election instead. So Larsen left the party and created her own Šiella party. In the poll, I could found this new party looks unlikely to get any significant support. Ap looks like they will be clearly the biggest party, so Wilhelmsen is likely to be the new government leader. Arja, which supported Norwegian Sami Association before taking them down, drops from 11.4 to 3.7%. But I could imagine this election is hard to poll, and I have little clue about whether they are usually accurate.
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« Reply #41 on: August 31, 2017, 11:09:36 am »
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The way the polls are moving, I will now say that if Venstre gets above the threshold, things are looking very good for the current four majority parties, even if the Greens cross the threshold as well. A recent Respons poll for Aftenposten has this scenario with a 88-81 lead for the current majority parties.

Frp is getting a great deal of attention on their key issue of immigration, which means that they are reaching the 16.3% or above from 2013 in several polls in these days. First, Sylvi Listhaug got a great deal of attention with her proposal to stop following the ECHR's rulings, then Støre decided to make his attack on Solberg for "making Norway a colder and harder place" due to taking Frp into government and accepting Listhaug's rhetoric and proposals, and the finally, there has been a lot of talk about Listhaug's recent trip to Sweden. The Swedish immigration minister Helene Fritzon cancelled on her just before their planned meeting, so instead Listhaug went to the crime-infested ghetto of Rinkeby to illustrate the failed Swedish immigration policies that Norway should try to avoid.
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« Reply #42 on: August 31, 2017, 12:06:28 pm »
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I'm surprised a party to the right of Progress on immigration/"cultural issues" hasn't taken off, considering FrP is one of the most "respectable" of the major populist right outfits
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« Reply #43 on: August 31, 2017, 01:07:30 pm »
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I'm surprised a party to the right of Progress on immigration/"cultural issues" hasn't taken off, considering FrP is one of the most "respectable" of the major populist right outfits

Not too familiar with how people in Norway view Trump, but could it be the Trump factor.  It seems ever since Trump was elected as well as Brexit it has somewhat diminished right wing populist parties.  Although granted that they were in government that attack might be less effective.
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« Reply #44 on: September 02, 2017, 05:18:45 pm »
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The newspaper VG quotes sources in Ap for saying that Støre's main strategy in the rest of the election will be attacking the government and Solberg in particular, based on Listhaug's journey to Sweden and her general behaviour as immigration minister. The sources say that they hope this will mobilize Ap doubters and convince potential switchers to SV/MDG by focusing on getting Frp out of the government offices, that it will weaken the picture of Erna Solberg as "Norway's Merkel" by continously branding her as "the only Western European PM to have taken a right populist party into government"* and that it will attract or at least de-mobilize KrF/Venstre voters, who don't like Frp. It is always hard to know how reliable such information is, and even if it is reliable, it might be changed a bit now that the information is out. But if there's any truth in it, I can only describe it as extremely brave to base the last part of the campaign on this. There is quite the risk that immigration-sceptic Ap or Sp voters will leave the ship. The fact that Venstre is hovering below the 4%-threshold makes the strategy more viable, but there have been polls during this campaign with centre-right majority despite Venstre being below the threshold.

* Lucky that the Norwegian election is held before the Austrian one Wink
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« Reply #45 on: September 02, 2017, 11:53:10 pm »
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The newspaper VG quotes sources in Ap for saying that Støre's main strategy in the rest of the election will be attacking the government and Solberg in particular, based on Listhaug's journey to Sweden and her general behaviour as immigration minister. The sources say that they hope this will mobilize Ap doubters and convince potential switchers to SV/MDG by focusing on getting Frp out of the government offices, that it will weaken the picture of Erna Solberg as "Norway's Merkel" by continously branding her as "the only Western European PM to have taken a right populist party into government"* and that it will attract or at least de-mobilize KrF/Venstre voters, who don't like Frp. It is always hard to know how reliable such information is, and even if it is reliable, it might be changed a bit now that the information is out. But if there's any truth in it, I can only describe it as extremely brave to base the last part of the campaign on this. There is quite the risk that immigration-sceptic Ap or Sp voters will leave the ship. The fact that Venstre is hovering below the 4%-threshold makes the strategy more viable, but there have been polls during this campaign with centre-right majority despite Venstre being below the threshold.

* Lucky that the Norwegian election is held before the Austrian one Wink

Seems somewhat risky, but perhaps comparing FrP to Donald Trump might be a strategy.  I believe Donald Trump is pretty reviled throughout Western Europe and I believe many in the FrP are supportive of him so that might be a strategy.  Bush was similarly hated in Western Europe and Schroeder came back in 2002 running on anti-Bush platform and likewise the PSOE pulled off a surprise victory for similar reason although the Madrid train attack probably tipped things there.
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« Reply #46 on: September 03, 2017, 05:07:47 am »
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I'm surprised a party to the right of Progress on immigration/"cultural issues" hasn't taken off, considering FrP is one of the most "respectable" of the major populist right outfits

Not too familiar with how people in Norway view Trump, but could it be the Trump factor.  It seems ever since Trump was elected as well as Brexit it has somewhat diminished right wing populist parties.  Although granted that they were in government that attack might be less effective.

Doubt it. frP entered government long before Trump, and definitely for a long enough time to disappoint more radical voters who might want more of a FN style platform.
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« Reply #47 on: September 03, 2017, 10:55:37 am »
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Looks like toward the end of Aug there has been a surge in the polling for the ruling bloc and a fall in support for the Ap led opposition.  Any reason for this or is this a typical rally toward the incumbent toward the end of a campaign ?
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« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2017, 12:24:36 pm »
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Scandinavian countries have a big tendency towards having wild swings against incumbent governments that disappear during the election campaign.
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« Reply #49 on: September 07, 2017, 01:57:11 pm »
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KrF leader Hareide now commits closer to Erna Solberg than he has done hitherto. He says that if the majority is retained, Solberg will remain as PM, even if she continues governing with Frp. However, he maintains that there won't be a formalized cooperation agreement as in the past four years and he won't guarantee to support Solberg's government for the full term.
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