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Author Topic: Norway election, 11th September 2017  (Read 9853 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #50 on: September 08, 2017, 12:10:00 pm »

I noticed Wikipedia at least on the English site has no poll updates so does anyone here know if there have been further polls to show where the last minute breaks are going.  It looks like the centre-right has the momentum, but would be nice to see the numbers.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #51 on: September 08, 2017, 12:20:19 pm »

http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Stortinget
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mileslunn
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« Reply #52 on: September 08, 2017, 01:06:05 pm »


Thanks.  Looks like still a close race as Labour has recovered a bit and Hoyre is stalling but still could go either way.  Likely to be a lot closer than 2013 whomever comes out ahead.  Also What about Reds and MDG holding the balance of power as they are not part of either alliance but they could be in the balance of power.  I suspect they will support Labour though if they are in this scenario.
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The Saint
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« Reply #53 on: September 08, 2017, 05:11:33 pm »

Is there still a good chance that Labour wins but can't form a coalition again?
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #54 on: September 08, 2017, 06:12:20 pm »

Is there still a good chance that Labour wins but can't form a coalition again?
Depends on if the Greens get in. If the Greens make it over the threshold Labour probably forms government.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #55 on: September 09, 2017, 03:06:43 am »

Is there still a good chance that Labour wins but can't form a coalition again?

Definitely although I think the 4% threshold is key here.  Both the Liberals and Christian Democrats are in danger of possibly missing it so if both miss it Labour wins, if one misses it likely Labour but still might work assuming the Reds and Greens don't break it.  If both Reds and Greens cross it or as a matter of fact just one likely Labour.  Now if both Christian Democrats and Liberals cross it but Greens and Reds miss it then what you are suggesting becomes far more likely.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #56 on: September 09, 2017, 04:28:36 am »

I think the Center-Right government will be re-elected.

My prediction:

26.7% Labour Party
25.0% Conservative Party
15.3% Progress Party
  9.3% Centre Party
  6.0% Socialist Left Party
  4.8% Liberal Party
  4.5% Christian Democratic Party
  3.8% Green Party
  3.0% Red Party
  1.6% Others

49.6% Government
42.0% Opposition (48.8% incl. Greens + Red Party)

Turnout: 78.9%
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Diouf
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« Reply #57 on: September 09, 2017, 06:34:35 am »

For the first time, more than 1 million Norwegian voters have already made their choice. The early voting period ended yesterday, and 27.3% of the electorate has already crossed of their choice. This means that 1 029 014 people have already voted.

Due to concerns about the safety of the country's electronic devices, it has been decided that all counting shall take place by hand, whereas previously many districts have been able to count early votes via machines. This has been the case in f.ex. Trondheim, Bergen and Oslo, where the municipalities with short notice have to find extra staff. This means the results can be delayed from some parts of the country, particularly considering the high amount of early votes.

In around half of the country, the election already starts tomorrow at around noon when the polls will be open for a few hours. Polls are then open most of the day Monday, where individual opening times for each locality is also allowed, but they must close at latest at 21.00. At that point the news stations will announce the results of their exit polls.
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« Reply #58 on: September 09, 2017, 07:16:40 am »

The last election debate took place yesterday in Bergen. KrFs Hareide's performance has been rated poorly in the media; he was seen as too vague and was pressed hard on his flip-flop of accepting Frp in government for another term. Perhaps KrF in the end will be more threathened by the threshold than Venstre? SV's Lysbakken was seen as performing very well again, with some solid and strong attacks on the current government. The party has moved from 4.6% to 5.9% in the polling average during the campaign, and perhaps their end result will be even higher. However, SV's success could also deliver some problems for the opposition if he draws in too many of the left of Ap-voters, so that MDG and/or Rødt won't cross the threshold. Neither of the two latter's party leaders were seen as having a notable debate.

The three big party leaders were seen as performing relatively equal. Solberg was as usual very moderate and somewhat technocratic in her language use, but did go a bit further on immigration than previously, which could be very helpful in causing a clearer divide.

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mgop
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« Reply #59 on: September 09, 2017, 10:15:35 am »

what was the main issues in campaign? and how parties stand on them?
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Diouf
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« Reply #60 on: September 09, 2017, 11:50:10 am »

what was the main issues in campaign? and how parties stand on them?

Ipsos poll on the most important issues for Dagbladet. The three top issues listed by voters are education, health and immigration. The below figure shows who the voters think will best handle each issue. The issues in the figure are education, health, job creation, keep the economy in order, integration, immigration, elderly care, municipal economy, family and equality policy, transport, climate and environment, nature protection, district policies, city policies.

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mileslunn
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« Reply #61 on: September 09, 2017, 03:12:45 pm »

Do any more polls come out or are we done?  If done then I will make my projection although it will be very vague as not as familiar with Norwegian politics as some here.
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Diouf
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« Reply #62 on: September 09, 2017, 04:02:05 pm »

I don't think more polls will come now. Perhaps one or two tomorrow morning before the polls open.

Pollofpolls.no average

Ap 27,2 (48)   
Høyre 24,2 (42)
Frp 14,6 (28)
SV 5,9 (10)
Sp 10,1 (17)
KrF 4,5 (8 )
Venstre 4,2 (7)
MDG 4,0 (7)
Rødt 3,4 (2)
Andre 1,7 (0)

The narrowest majority possible for the current government with 85 seats.                            
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mileslunn
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« Reply #63 on: September 09, 2017, 04:10:42 pm »

I don't think more polls will come now. Perhaps one or two tomorrow morning before the polls open.

Pollofpolls.no average

Ap 27,2 (48)   
Høyre 24,2 (42)
Frp 14,6 (28)
SV 5,9 (10)
Sp 10,1 (17)
KrF 4,5 (8 )
Venstre 4,2 (7)
MDG 4,0 (7)
Rødt 3,4 (2)
Andre 1,7 (0)

The narrowest majority possible for the current government with 85 seats.                            

Any history of one side being over or under represented.  Also what is the typical turnout amongst younger voters and is it like the English speaking countries where millennials tilt heavily to the left and older voters heavily to the right or less there less of an age gap like Germany.

My preliminary are 86 seats current government and 83 seats opposition but could really go either way.

Labour wins the popular vote, but gets a lower percentage than in 2013.  Both Christian Democrats and Liberals cross the 4% threshold while Greens are right on the line while Reds miss it.
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Polkergeist
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« Reply #64 on: September 10, 2017, 05:13:04 am »

What are the exit polls like in Norway.

Is there one big joint exit poll, or several from different media outlets?

Do they offer seat projections or just national shares of the vote ?

How has their accuracy been in the past?
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Lurker
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« Reply #65 on: September 10, 2017, 02:19:13 pm »

What are the exit polls like in Norway.

Is there one big joint exit poll, or several from different media outlets?

Do they offer seat projections or just national shares of the vote ?

How has their accuracy been in the past?

There are at least two, from the two main TV channels (NRK and TV2).

They do both.

In the elections I've followed (since 2005 or so), they've tended to be quite accurate.

The exit polls are released 21:00 local time, btw.
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The Saint
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« Reply #66 on: September 11, 2017, 12:21:40 pm »

Today's the day
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DavidB.
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« Reply #67 on: September 11, 2017, 12:46:10 pm »

Are there any livestreams?
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #68 on: September 11, 2017, 12:56:09 pm »

https://www.firstone.tv/Live/Norway/NRK-1-4

Think NRK site proper is geoblocked.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #69 on: September 11, 2017, 12:57:56 pm »

Are there any livestreams?

https://www.nrk.no/valg2017/

It works outside Norway too, because I can watch it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #70 on: September 11, 2017, 12:59:23 pm »

Are there any livestreams?

https://www.nrk.no/valg2017/

It works outside Norway too, because I can watch it.

Works for me too in NYC.
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #71 on: September 11, 2017, 01:00:47 pm »

Found the official one and it works!

https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-2017-1.12257515
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #72 on: September 11, 2017, 01:07:24 pm »

The other live stream from TV 2 also works outside Norway:

https://live.tv2.no/valg-2017
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DavidB.
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« Reply #73 on: September 11, 2017, 01:11:03 pm »

Are there any livestreams?

https://www.nrk.no/valg2017/

It works outside Norway too, because I can watch it.
Works here too, thanks.
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #74 on: September 11, 2017, 01:12:18 pm »

Yep great stuff thanks all for the confirmed TV link.

Official results site below, Sprak at top right to change language:

https://www.valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2017

What do people think the outcome will be? Obviously a lot depends on which parties cross the threshold, my gut feeling is a narrow centre-right win.

Anyway settling in for a night of Norwegian TV here in NW London.
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