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| | |-+  Norway election, 11th September 2017
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Author Topic: Norway election, 11th September 2017  (Read 8432 times)
DavidB.
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E: -2.13, S: 0.78

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« Reply #75 on: September 11, 2017, 01:13:16 pm »
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Hoping for a Shy Tory effect, but it's really 50/50. Didn't think I would end up hoping that V reach the threshold.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -7.10, S: -6.09

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« Reply #76 on: September 11, 2017, 01:41:13 pm »
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Turnout looks to be really good: 80-81%.

That would be +2%.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #77 on: September 11, 2017, 01:58:26 pm »
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27.3% voted early, which is an all-time high.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #78 on: September 11, 2017, 02:00:41 pm »
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Government bloc wins majority
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Diouf
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« Reply #79 on: September 11, 2017, 02:03:35 pm »
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KrF and Venstre both at around 4.0%. The first just below, the latter just above in the prognosis. And neither MDG nor Rødt above it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #80 on: September 11, 2017, 02:03:45 pm »
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TV2  Government bloc 91 seats,   H 26.7%. vs Ap 26.4%
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
DavidB.
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« Reply #81 on: September 11, 2017, 02:04:42 pm »
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Government bloc wins majority
Will this still be the case if KRF and V end up below the threshold? I'm not sure.
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jaichind
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« Reply #82 on: September 11, 2017, 02:05:16 pm »
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Government bloc wins majority
Will this still be the case if KRF and V end up below the threshold? I'm not sure.

Agree.  What I meant to say is exit polls indicate Government bloc wins majority
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #83 on: September 11, 2017, 02:06:34 pm »
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Very happy with my prediction, if true ...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #84 on: September 11, 2017, 02:07:56 pm »
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Very happy with my prediction, if true ...
Very happy with the result, if true Smiley
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jaichind
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« Reply #85 on: September 11, 2017, 02:09:52 pm »
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If H does overtake Ap in terms of vote share would that not be the first time Ap is not the highest vote winning party since the 1920s ?
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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kataak
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E: -4.52, S: 5.39

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« Reply #86 on: September 11, 2017, 02:14:21 pm »
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Damn, official site is quickly uploading the results. Currently Krf under the threshold.
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Diouf
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« Reply #87 on: September 11, 2017, 02:16:05 pm »
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If H does overtake Ap in terms of vote share would that not be the first time Ap is not the highest vote winning party since the 1920s ?

1924 was the last time
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Kamala
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« Reply #88 on: September 11, 2017, 02:16:16 pm »
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What is the threshold?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #89 on: September 11, 2017, 02:17:22 pm »
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85-84 now... Ap seems to have done better and H worse...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #90 on: September 11, 2017, 02:18:33 pm »
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What is the threshold?

It is 4%.  If Both KrF and V make the threshold the centre-right bloc should hold, if only one makes it, they might hold but will be very close.  If both miss it then the centre-left bloc will win.  That being said they can still win seats with less than that but only regional, they don't get any top up national ones.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #91 on: September 11, 2017, 02:19:36 pm »
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Some ways lucky for the centre-right it is 4% instead of 3% or 5% as it 3% the Greens would likely cross it whereas it 5% both KrF and V would miss it and the reason I mention 5% is in both Germany and New Zealand that is what it is.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #92 on: September 11, 2017, 02:22:35 pm »
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TV2 projection still has both KrF and V crossing 4% and the government bloc at 90.  I think it is down from 91 earlier. 
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Diouf
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« Reply #93 on: September 11, 2017, 02:22:50 pm »
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NRK say that currently Venstre is 4.000 votes below the threshold, KrF 1.000 votes above it.
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DavidB.
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E: -2.13, S: 0.78

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« Reply #94 on: September 11, 2017, 02:24:48 pm »
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TV2 projection still has both KrF and V crossing 4% and the government bloc at 90.  I think it is down from 91 earlier. 
Official website has it at 85-84... I really hope the prognosis is still right.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #95 on: September 11, 2017, 02:28:23 pm »
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Pretty amazing this election result will come down the the 4% threshold for KrF and V with 3 different possible results (Gov victory, near tie, opposition victory)
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Diouf
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« Reply #96 on: September 11, 2017, 02:31:15 pm »
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I believe it's mostly the early votes that have been counted so far. In the early vote share, both KrF, Venstre and MDG have 3.9%. KrF is probably more likely to have voters who have turned up today, so based on that, I would also think they are the most likely to cross the threshold
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #97 on: September 11, 2017, 02:31:26 pm »
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For a night like this the official results page needs to go out to 2 decimal places of precision and not just 1  Smiley
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
DavidB.
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E: -2.13, S: 0.78

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« Reply #98 on: September 11, 2017, 02:34:25 pm »
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KrF is probably more likely to have voters who have turned up today, so based on that, I would also think they are the most likely to cross the threshold
Why? Just curious.
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mvd10
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« Reply #99 on: September 11, 2017, 02:36:02 pm »
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How a night like this makes a Catholic Dutch election junkie feel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R2vT8EM2ac

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Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
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