Norway election, 11th September 2017

[DavidB.]

Hoping for a Shy Tory effect, but it's really 50/50. Didn't think I would end up hoping that V reach the threshold.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks to be really good: 80-81%.

That would be +2%.

[DavidB.]

27.3% voted early, which is an all-time high.

[jaichind]

Government bloc wins majority

[Diouf]

KrF and Venstre both at around 4.0%. The first just below, the latter just above in the prognosis. And neither MDG nor Rødt above it.

[jaichind]

TV2  Government bloc 91 seats,   H 26.7%. vs Ap 26.4%

[DavidB.]

Government bloc wins majority

Will this still be the case if KRF and V end up below the threshold? I'm not sure.

[jaichind]

Government bloc wins majority

Will this still be the case if KRF and V end up below the threshold? I'm not sure.

Agree.  What I meant to say is exit polls indicate Government bloc wins majority

[Tender Branson]

Very happy with my prediction, if true ...

[DavidB.]

Very happy with my prediction, if true ...

Very happy with the result, if true

[jaichind]

If H does overtake Ap in terms of vote share would that not be the first time Ap is not the highest vote winning party since the 1920s ?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Damn, official site is quickly uploading the results. Currently Krf under the threshold.

[Diouf]

If H does overtake Ap in terms of vote share would that not be the first time Ap is not the highest vote winning party since the 1920s ?

1924 was the last time

[Kamala]

What is the threshold?

[DavidB.]

85-84 now... Ap seems to have done better and H worse...

[mileslunn]

What is the threshold?

It is 4%.  If Both KrF and V make the threshold the centre-right bloc should hold, if only one makes it, they might hold but will be very close.  If both miss it then the centre-left bloc will win.  That being said they can still win seats with less than that but only regional, they don't get any top up national ones.

[mileslunn]

Some ways lucky for the centre-right it is 4% instead of 3% or 5% as it 3% the Greens would likely cross it whereas it 5% both KrF and V would miss it and the reason I mention 5% is in both Germany and New Zealand that is what it is.

[jaichind]

TV2 projection still has both KrF and V crossing 4% and the government bloc at 90.  I think it is down from 91 earlier. 

[Diouf]

NRK say that currently Venstre is 4.000 votes below the threshold, KrF 1.000 votes above it.

[DavidB.]

TV2 projection still has both KrF and V crossing 4% and the government bloc at 90.  I think it is down from 91 earlier. 

Official website has it at 85-84... I really hope the prognosis is still right.

[jaichind]

Pretty amazing this election result will come down the the 4% threshold for KrF and V with 3 different possible results (Gov victory, near tie, opposition victory)

[Diouf]

I believe it's mostly the early votes that have been counted so far. In the early vote share, both KrF, Venstre and MDG have 3.9%. KrF is probably more likely to have voters who have turned up today, so based on that, I would also think they are the most likely to cross the threshold

[jaichind]

For a night like this the official results page needs to go out to 2 decimal places of precision and not just 1  

[DavidB.]

KrF is probably more likely to have voters who have turned up today, so based on that, I would also think they are the most likely to cross the threshold

Why? Just curious.

[mvd10]

How a night like this makes a Catholic Dutch election junkie feel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R2vT8EM2ac