Norway election, 11th September 2017

[Diouf]

Huh, you're right.

These small changes are really weird to my Dutch eyes. And Ap being the Biggest Loser as opposition leaders is just embarrassing.

Not that I really want to defend Ap, but you could very well argue that at least some of this is a structural development. The general process of fragmentarization certainly seems to be happening in Norway as well with the three biggest parties declining. In fair proportional electoral systems, it will be hard to maintain huge uneven voter coalitions. For Social Democratic parties it is difficult to avoid this tendency as it is difficult to reconcile many different voter groups, particularly young well-educated voters with very left wing values on immigration, environment etc. and traditional working class voters with right wing values.

But Ap's campaign was certainly very poor, and it will be quite interesting how the post-mortem analysis will play out in the party. Will the internal criticism focus on the proposed tax increases, the attacks on Frp on immigration or their lack of a Green profile. What direction will a new leader choose on these subjects?

[jaichind]

V up to 3.91% now

[mileslunn]

Huh, you're right.

These small changes are really weird to my Dutch eyes. And Ap being the Biggest Loser as opposition leaders is just embarrassing.

Not that I really want to defend Ap, but you could very well argue that at least some of this is a structural development. The general process of fragmentarization certainly seems to be happening in Norway as well with the three biggest parties declining. In fair proportional electoral systems, it will be hard to maintain huge uneven voter coalitions. For Social Democratic parties it is difficult to avoid this tendency as it is difficult to reconcile many different voter groups, particularly young well-educated voters with very left wing values on immigration, environment etc. and traditional working class voters with right wing values.

But Ap's campaign was certainly very poor, and it will be quite interesting how the post-mortem analysis will play out in the party. Will the internal criticism focus on the proposed tax increases, the attacks on Frp on immigration or their lack of a Green profile. What direction will a new leader choose on these subjects?

Were their proposed tax hikes for all brackets or just the rich.  I don't know about what the typical view is in Norway on taxes, but in the English speaking world tax hikes on the middle class is political suicide but tax hikes on the rich are very popular.  Here in Canada our PM won on promising a middle class tax cut and paying for it by hiking it on the rich.  Although with the gap between the rich and the poor smaller in Norway, not sure the soak the rich has the same currency as it does in the English speaking world.

[DavidB.]

V now at 4.1% according to NRK, but no idea where that comes from...

[jaichind]

V now at 4.1% according to NRK, but no idea where that comes from...

Their calculations are wrong ... it should be around 3.93% or so ...

[Diouf]

V now at 4.1% according to NRK, but no idea where that comes from...

They talked about some examples of Venstre progressing with quite a bit in some traditional strong Høyre areas, which could help them the last step above the threshold.

Oslo is still only 54,6% counted, so even if they back a bit there, it will still be one of their strongest areas.

[jaichind]

V up to 3.98% now

[Diouf]

Venstre at 4.1 on TV2 and 4.2 in NRK's prognosis with around 80% counted. Looks like they will just make it

[mileslunn]

Looks like the centre-right bloc will hang on albeit by a narrower margin.  Certainly it seems social democracy has been going through a rough period in much of Europe.  By contrast it seems in the English speaking world which embraced neoliberalism more is seeing social democrats do better.  They nearly won in Britain, could win in New Zealand in two weeks (albeit not guaranteed by any means), are leading in Australia (but still two years away), the next Democrat leader could very well be one (witness how well Sanders has done) while in Canada its a mixed bag, but unlike most other developed countries progressive parties are definitely in control of most of the political landscape and it seems running on a social democratic platform is a ticket to win in Canada while a ticket to lose in most of Europe.

[DavidB.]

Did Solberg already make a speech? Haven't been watching all the time.

[Double Carpet]

No - Grande for Venstre speaking now, then just the big two leaders to go.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ap now dangerously close to not coming in first in votes and seats. 49-45 right now, according to NRK1.

[DavidB.]

Ap now dangerously close to not coming in first in votes and seats. 49-45 right now, according to NRK1.

Still a 2.2% difference, that's not going to change anymore. The exitpoll was dead-on for the blocs and most parties, except that it overestimated H and underestimated V (both completely within the MoE though), which will matter internally.

[jaichind]

It looks like the Liberals “will make it barely, and that means there’s a majority for the current government,” Labor Party official Trond Giske says in interview.

[DavidB.]

Only 65% counted in Oslo. I'm not completely positive that KrF will make it...

[MAINEiac4434]

Jonas Gahr Stoere has conceded in a speech to the Ap.

[Diouf]

Still no votes counted from today in Bergen, where the upcoming World Championships in cycling is apparently causing major transport problems, so that it took a long time to collect votes to the counting places.

TV2 says that KrF is as good as safe, while it is likely that Venstre will make it as well.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for this, Diouf.

Solberg now going to make a speech.

[Diouf]

The party leader round will take place at 00.30 in parliament.

89% counted now. Venstre at 4.1%

[Diouf]

TV2 says that Venstre only needs 2.4% of the remaining 10% of votes that needs to be counted, which is highly likely. And most of the remanining votes are in Bergen, a big city, as well as a bit in Oslo and Trondheim

[DavidB.]

So 89-80 it is.

KrF say they will not provide outside support for a new H-FrP government and that there has to be a "center-right" government, which probably means they want to be in the government too (or FrP has to be out, or both). V say they will see. So H-FrP seems off the table. All other combinations that include H are still theoretically possible.

[parochial boy]

So the left wing block actually gets more votes but loses the election?

This is a most unwelcome form of Americanisation in my opinion.

Also why, why have both Rodt and Socialist Left?

[mileslunn]

So the left wing block actually gets more votes but loses the election?

This is a most unwelcome form of Américanisation in my opinion.

Also why, why have both Rodt ans Socialist Left?

Most countries with PR have minimum thresholds to keep out fringe parties.  In the last German election more Germans voted for parties on the right than left but because the AfD and FDP narrowly missed the 5% mark while the Greens and Die Linke made it, the Bundestag had more parties on left than right although since SPD wouldn't work with Die Linke, the CDU/CSU did manage to stay in power.  Labour could form government if they could convince either KrF or V to support them but that seems extremely unlikely.

[joevsimp]

So the left wing block actually gets more votes but loses the election?

This is a most unwelcome form of Américanisation in my opinion.

Also why, why have both Rodt ans Socialist Left?

Sv split from the left of Labour in the early seventies over Nato and EEC membership and some other issues. Rødt are the remains of the Maoist AKP and some miscellaneous Trots. not sure what their differences day to day are though

[parochial boy]

So the left wing block actually gets more votes but loses the election?

This is a most unwelcome form of Américanisation in my opinion.

Also why, why have both Rodt ans Socialist Left?

Sv split from the left of Labour in the early seventies over Nato and EEC membership and some other issues. Rødt are the remains of the Maoist AKP and some miscellaneous Trots. not sure what their differences day to day are though

So classic case of sectarianism being more important than actually winning elections...