Norway election, 11th September 2017

[FredLindq]

If you see AP, SP, SV, MDG and R as bloc and H, Frp, V and Krf as one. Yes then the first bloc got 49.3% and the second 48.9%. However MDG does not see them self as part off any bloc and SP is a non socialist agrarian party that has historically guverned with Krf and V and with H as well. You also have to take in the non socialist micro parties Kristne which got 0.3 and Liberalisterna which got 0.2%.

[Hydera]

If you see AP, SP, SV, MDG and R as bloc and H, Frp, V and Krf as one. Yes then the first bloc got 49.3% and the second 48.9%. However MDG does not see them self as part off any bloc and SP is a non socialist agrarian party that has historically guverned with Krf and V and with H as well. You also have to take in the non socialist micro parties Kristne which got 0.3 and Liberalisterna which got 0.2%.

Also the government bloc symbolically gets 50% if you consider the smaller rightwing parties: pension party: alliance, coastal party, christian party, liberal party has 1.1% combined.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So the left wing block actually gets more votes but loses the election?

This is a most unwelcome form of Américanisation in my opinion.

Also why, why have both Rodt ans Socialist Left?

Sv split from the left of Labour in the early seventies over Nato and EEC membership and some other issues. Rødt are the remains of the Maoist AKP and some miscellaneous Trots. not sure what their differences day to day are though

So classic case of sectarianism being more important than actually winning elections...

My impression is that SV is more SJW (for lack of a better word) and less doctrinal - remember SV participated in the Stoltenberg government, voted for the Libya/Kosovo interventions etc. Their strategy this election seems to be more specific based on five pledges:

"One, a major increase in the child care subsidies per child from the state that all families receive. Two, no to profit being taken out of the welfare sector’s child protection services, kindergartens, and asylum shelters. Three, reducing Norway’s CO2 emissions by at least three million tons. Four, Norway should take a lead in working for an international ban on nuclear weapons; and five, a new law specifying the maximum amount of children in a classroom per teacher." (quote from Jacobin)

There has also been a bit of a shift left since they left government, with a lot more public votes about leaving NATO etc but I doubt it would surmount to much if they entered government.

Jacobin has English language interviews with both Rodt and SV, and it's clear rodt have a bigger focus on attempting to bring ideology to the masses, fbofw.

https://jacobinmag.com/2017/09/norway-red-party-elections-labor-environment

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/09/norway-elections-socialist-left-snorre-valen

[TheSaint250]

Was the boost in seats huge for the Centre Party?

[Tender Branson]

I think the Center-Right government will be re-elected.

My prediction:

26.7% Labour Party (actual result: 27.4%, underestimated by 0.7%)
25.0% Conservative Party (actual result: 25.0%, absolutely nailed it)
15.3% Progress Party (actual result: 15.2%, overestimated by 0.1%)
  9.3% Centre Party (actual result: 10.3%, underestimated by 1.0%)
  6.0% Socialist Left Party (actual result: 6.0%, absolutely nailed it)
  4.8% Liberal Party (actual result: 4.3%, overestimated by 0.5%)
  4.5% Christian Democratic Party (actual result: 4.2%, overestimated by 0.3%)
  3.8% Green Party (actual result: 3.2%, overestimated by 0.6%)
  3.0% Red Party (actual result: 2.4%, overestimated by 0.6%)
  1.6% Others (actual result: 2.0%, underestimated by 0.4%)

49.6% Government (actual result: 48.7%, overestimated by 0.9%)
42.0% Opposition (48.8% incl. Greens + Red Party) (actual result: 43.7%, 49.3%, underestimated by 1.7% and 0.5%)

Turnout: 78.9% (actual result: 78.0%, overestimated by 0.9%)

I was only off by an average of 0.42 points for every party (incl. others) ...

[joevsimp]

VG's results site looks the best of the various media outlets, lots of options on the maps

knowing how much some of us love a good results map broken down as small as possible, here is Oslo broken down by individual polling place, you can see a lot of patterns in the different party figures (east/west, centre/suburbs etc)

http://www.vg.no/valgnatt/2017/valg/storting/fylker/oslo/

other large kommuner are divided into valgkretser (precincts I guess) but smaller ones are not

[Diouf]

It seems like the question is whether it will be a continued H-Frp government or a H-Frp-V government. KrF has ruled out government participation with Frp. They state that if they cannot get a H-V-KrF government, it will go into "constructive opposition", i.e. no formalized cooperation agreement and no promise to support the government for the full term. This will obviously make the government less stable, but will also give it more flexibility as it can then make deals with Ap alone for example, unless of course it is something crucial for KrF, which could make it tear down the government if overlooked.

It is a bit surprising that Venstre is considering joining the government, even with Frp, but as the last four years have shown, you are not shielded from "government wear and tear" as a support party. Government participation could in fact make in more obvious where V is getting its policies through, e.g. education or climate. However, it will clearly be quite difficult for V and Frp to reach an agreement on many issues, so if this proves to be a serious option, government negotiations could take a while.

I don't think it's particularly likely that Frp will leave the government. Both government parties held up well, and the internal government cooperation seems to have worked quite well. And while neither of the two small centre-right parties are particularly fond of Frp, I think the election outcome means that they don't have that much legitimacy in forcing Frp to leave the government. And Frp will probably not accept it either. Some talk about the possibility that immigration minister Listhaug could be left out of the next government as a sign of goodwill to the two small parties, but it would be madness by Frp to sacrifice their holy cow like that. They could perhaps let her move on to Justice or something where you can also be tough, and where she can expand on her profile.

[rob in cal]

  I've read that the Frp has impacted the Norwegian government on immigration and asylum policy, moving it to the right.  What policies has it accomplished and how much difference on these issues has it made, say compared to if a Labour government was in power? I'm wondering if its vote held up as well as it did because of a perceived effectiveness on this issue?

[Diouf]

For the first two weeks after the election, Erna Solberg lead talks with the three other party leaders in the governing bloc. KrF has been reluctant all the time, and today they as expected announced that they won't participate in a new government. The party will go into their so-called "constructive opposition" where they will not take down the government, but won't promise its support for the whole term nor be an automatic partner in negotiations. So the question is whether Venstre will join the government now or stay out as in the last term. The party seems quite willing to go into government, and hope that this will give them a better chance to promote their wins. However, it will probably be a while before we find out. The whole process for the 2018 budget is about to start now, which will likely delay government negotiations or even be a part of them.

[JonHawk]

Still strange how the Centre Party is in the Red Bloc. I wonder if they will eventually move to the Right Bloc, especially if Red Party makes it in next elections. Three parties: Greens, SocialistLeft and Red in the same bloc with the farmers.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Still strange how the Centre Party is in the Red Bloc. I wonder if they will eventually move to the Right Bloc, especially if Red Party makes it in next elections. Three parties: Greens, SocialistLeft and Red in the same bloc with the farmers.

nah. The Hoyre-FrP government has been really aggravated Centre's cadre due to its forced mergers and centralisation policy. Plus AP find SP useful as a counterbalancing force to SV et al.

Nprway's rural areas are very well served by the current set-up - especially when one looks at rural and small town areas in Denmark and Sweden. SP don't want to hand carte blanche to any austere treatment of their base.

[Diouf]

The new government is likely to be in place next week. The three parties, Høyre, FrP and Venstre, have made serious progress in negotiations, and will present the results for their parties on Sunday. If the agreement is approved in all three parties, the new government will likely be presented during next week. There haven't been a lot of policy details in the media yet, although VG writes that the compromise on immigration will be tightened family reunification rules and an increase in the number of quota refugees through the UN programs.

Former FrP party leader Carl I. Hagen has been critical of Venstre's inclusion in the government, partly because Venstre recently joined with the centre-left parties to block Hagen from joining the Norwegian Nobel Committee which picks the Nobel Peace Prize Winner, but also for sound strategical reasons. Hagen argues it that there are no benefits from including Venstre in the government. There would be benefits if KrF joined as well in a majority cabinet, but Venstre's inclusion alone could make things more rather than less difficult since there will be more intra-cabinet disagreements but the same amount of parliamentary struggles. Hagen would prefer a Høyra-FrP cabinet which could roam free, and make deal with Sp and Ap on issues like immigration and climate. 

[rob in cal]

  Any sense of whether the immigration compromise will mean more or less total immigration. If it means more, won't this hurt the Frp for participating in such an agreement?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This proposal is similar to what ÖVP-FPÖ passed .... just the opposite on details

classic!

[Diouf]

The parties approved the government programme today, which was presented later in the day. 
It as expected includes several proposed actions to liberalize the economy. The government's alcohol monopoly shops will get expanded opening hours until 21.00 at workdays and saturdays  and normal shops will get easier to open on sundays (unpopular with KrF). There will be cap on the local property tax, which will mean it will have to be lowered in at least 70 municipalities. More competition in the public sector, which will be opened up to more private companies. Remove the license fees for the state broadcaster, and likely decrease overall funding, which will instead happen through regular taxation.

While Høyre largely runs the economic policies, there are some clear wins for Venstre and Frp in other areas:

The wins for Venstre: There will be no oil exploration in the sensitive areas Lofoten, Vesterålen and Senja. Banning fur farming per 2025 (likely another case for Sp to complain wide and loud about). Keep the generous tax benefits for electric cars and introduce higher enviromental taxes for companies. Increase in UN quota refugees if spontaneous asylum seeking stay at the current low levels. Increased paternity leave.

The wins for FrP: Niqab and Burqa ban. Tougher rules on family reunification. More difficult to get Norwegian citizenship (8 years' residence). More police officers.

The government will of course need to find majorities for all these proposals. The cabinet names are relatively similar to the previous government. Siv Jensen, Frp leader, stays as Minister of Finance, Trine Skei Grande, Venstre leader, will be become Minister of Culture, while Frp star Sylvi Listhaug will get a superministry with both justice and immigration.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Does anyone know anything about him and the liberal party in particular ? He seems to have nominated my school parent organization for a nobel peace prize which is a bit weird.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_(Norway)