Norway election, 11th September 2017

[jaichind]

FRP 80
H    70
V    58

[jaichind]

It would seem that for the ruling alliance to win would require V to cross 4% and both MDG and R to not cross 4%.

[jaichind]

Looks like toward the end of Aug there has been a surge in the polling for the ruling bloc and a fall in support for the Ap led opposition.  Any reason for this or is this a typical rally toward the incumbent toward the end of a campaign ?

[jaichind]

Are there any livestreams?

https://www.nrk.no/valg2017/

It works outside Norway too, because I can watch it.

Works for me too in NYC.

[jaichind]

Government bloc wins majority

[jaichind]

TV2  Government bloc 91 seats,   H 26.7%. vs Ap 26.4%

[jaichind]

Government bloc wins majority

Will this still be the case if KRF and V end up below the threshold? I'm not sure.

Agree.  What I meant to say is exit polls indicate Government bloc wins majority

[jaichind]

If H does overtake Ap in terms of vote share would that not be the first time Ap is not the highest vote winning party since the 1920s ?

[jaichind]

TV2 projection still has both KrF and V crossing 4% and the government bloc at 90.  I think it is down from 91 earlier. 

[jaichind]

Pretty amazing this election result will come down the the 4% threshold for KrF and V with 3 different possible results (Gov victory, near tie, opposition victory)

[jaichind]

For a night like this the official results page needs to go out to 2 decimal places of precision and not just 1  

[jaichind]

V back above 4% in real count ...

[jaichind]

TV2 projection now has it Ap 26.9%  H 26.1%

[jaichind]

Something does not compute

If you take a snip-it of the results page

https://www.valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2017

Kristelig Folkeparti   66 094   4,3%   -1,3 pp   -1,3
Venstre                  54 251   4,0%   -1,2 pp   -0,9

66094/54251 is way off from 4.3%/4.0%.  How are they computing these vote shares ?

[jaichind]

http://www.tv2.no/politikk/valg/2017/stortingsvalg

has

KRF   4.5%   (-1.1)      72 417   8   (-2)
V   3.7%   (-1.6)      58 925   7   (-2)

where the vote shares are consistent  with votes but then how does V get 7 seats if they are at 3.7% which is well below 4%.  These results pages lack the most basic QC which excel should be able to give you.

[jaichind]

http://www.tv2.no/politikk/valg/2017/stortingsvalg

has

KRF   4.5%   (-1.1)      72 417   8   (-2)
V   3.7%   (-1.6)      58 925   7   (-2)

where the vote shares are consistent  with votes but then how does V get 7 seats if they are at 3.7% which is well below 4%.  These results pages lack the most basic QC which excel should be able to give you.

I see what is going on.  The 7 seats for V is not from its current vote share but the TV2 projection.

[jaichind]

V has been rising and is up to 3.81% now

[jaichind]

V up to 3.91% now

[jaichind]

V now at 4.1% according to NRK, but no idea where that comes from...

Their calculations are wrong ... it should be around 3.93% or so ...

[jaichind]

V up to 3.98% now

[jaichind]

It looks like the Liberals “will make it barely, and that means there’s a majority for the current government,” Labor Party official Trond Giske says in interview.