Norway election, 11th September 2017

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this poll is interesting:

Labour: 33.7
Hoyre: 20.1
Centre: 14.3
Progress: 11.1
Christian Democrats: 5.1
Venstre: 4.3
Socialist Left: 4.1
Red: 2.8
Greens: 2.7

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The long-term reason is that they have not really done much in government. It's worth noting that the Progress Party's election programme was kind of insane: namely, it called for just privatising everything and abolishing the Oil Fund, then spending all the profits on a big infrastructure binge and huge tax cuts all over the place. Though there has been record dipping into the oil fund this government, the realities of low oil prices and being tied to the more cautious Hoyre meant these dreams were not reached. Not to mention the reliance on Venstre and Christian Democrats, who routinely pooh-pooh any populist stuff that Progress can think of.

The short-term reason is the young leader of the Centre Party is stealing their anti-EEA schtick. Except whereas Progress hate taxes, Centre hate wolves and urban folk.

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I also find that uncertainty around the 4 percent threshold quite interesting.

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Labor has finished first in seats and votes in every election since 1927. That is insane.

Would they be considered the single most successful party in a democracy?

It's arguable that Mexico was a democracy throughout most of those PRi wins.

regarding numeric "victories" maybe, otherwise i would argue PRI/japanese lib-dems are better examples,

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Rødt seems to be in a bit of a mini-surge, and are convincingly above the threshold in a new TNS poll.

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Just realised there will be a Sami Parliament election as well? Anything interesting happening with that?

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I'm surprised a party to the right of Progress on immigration/"cultural issues" hasn't taken off, considering FrP is one of the most "respectable" of the major populist right outfits

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I'm surprised a party to the right of Progress on immigration/"cultural issues" hasn't taken off, considering FrP is one of the most "respectable" of the major populist right outfits

Not too familiar with how people in Norway view Trump, but could it be the Trump factor.  It seems ever since Trump was elected as well as Brexit it has somewhat diminished right wing populist parties.  Although granted that they were in government that attack might be less effective.

Doubt it. frP entered government long before Trump, and definitely for a long enough time to disappoint more radical voters who might want more of a FN style platform.

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Scandinavian countries have a big tendency towards having wild swings against incumbent governments that disappear during the election campaign.

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So the left wing block actually gets more votes but loses the election?

This is a most unwelcome form of Américanisation in my opinion.

Also why, why have both Rodt ans Socialist Left?

Sv split from the left of Labour in the early seventies over Nato and EEC membership and some other issues. Rødt are the remains of the Maoist AKP and some miscellaneous Trots. not sure what their differences day to day are though

So classic case of sectarianism being more important than actually winning elections...

My impression is that SV is more SJW (for lack of a better word) and less doctrinal - remember SV participated in the Stoltenberg government, voted for the Libya/Kosovo interventions etc. Their strategy this election seems to be more specific based on five pledges:

"One, a major increase in the child care subsidies per child from the state that all families receive. Two, no to profit being taken out of the welfare sector’s child protection services, kindergartens, and asylum shelters. Three, reducing Norway’s CO2 emissions by at least three million tons. Four, Norway should take a lead in working for an international ban on nuclear weapons; and five, a new law specifying the maximum amount of children in a classroom per teacher." (quote from Jacobin)

There has also been a bit of a shift left since they left government, with a lot more public votes about leaving NATO etc but I doubt it would surmount to much if they entered government.

Jacobin has English language interviews with both Rodt and SV, and it's clear rodt have a bigger focus on attempting to bring ideology to the masses, fbofw.

https://jacobinmag.com/2017/09/norway-red-party-elections-labor-environment

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/09/norway-elections-socialist-left-snorre-valen

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Still strange how the Centre Party is in the Red Bloc. I wonder if they will eventually move to the Right Bloc, especially if Red Party makes it in next elections. Three parties: Greens, SocialistLeft and Red in the same bloc with the farmers.

nah. The Hoyre-FrP government has been really aggravated Centre's cadre due to its forced mergers and centralisation policy. Plus AP find SP useful as a counterbalancing force to SV et al.

Nprway's rural areas are very well served by the current set-up - especially when one looks at rural and small town areas in Denmark and Sweden. SP don't want to hand carte blanche to any austere treatment of their base.

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This proposal is similar to what ÖVP-FPÖ passed .... just the opposite on details

classic!