Norway election, 11th September 2017

[Diouf]

venstre below threshold would be lovely. how green party got 1 mp with 2.8% last time?

They won a constituency seat in the Oslo multimember-constituency due to getting 5.6% of the vote there. In Norway most of the seats (150) are distributed proportionally inside each constituency, while only 19 seats are leveling seats to make the seat distribution match the vote distribution better on a national level for parties winning more than 4%. Unlike in Denmark, winning a constituency seat does not make you eligible for your share of the seats on the national level.
Oslo is the largest constituency with 18 constituency seats and 1 leveling seat. The Greens could therefore easily win a seat again if they match their percentage in Oslo. Also the Red's best chance is probably a constituency seat in Oslo. Had there been a 19th constituency seat in Oslo in 2013, the Reds would have won it. Also Venstre and the Socialist Left would win seats in Oslo even if they dip just below 4% nationally. Perhaps also in Hordaland.

[Diouf]

Polling average by pollofpolls.no
The government and its support parties only receive 75 seats, while the opposition gets 94 seats. The Reds have increased to 2.9% nationally, and are now predicted to win 2 seats in Oslo on 8.4% of the vote. Venstre is below the threshold, but wins a seat in both Oslo and Akershus. The Greens retain their Oslo seat.

Ap 33,0% (61 seats)
Høyre 23,3 (42)
Frp 12,0 (22)
SV 4,2 (8 )
Sp 12,2 (22)
KrF 4,9 (9)
Venstre 3,1 (2)
MDG 3,0 (1)
Rødt 2,9 (2)
Others 1,6 (0)                        

[Diouf]

The first party leader debate takes place tonight from Arendal. It will include the parties currently represented in parliament as well as Rødt/Red because polls show them winning 1/2 seats in Oslo. The polls have tightened in recent months, and some polls show a majority for the four parties in the current majority if Venstre can get just enough tactical votes from other centre-right parties to get above the 4% threshold.

However, even if the four parties just get another majority, it is not certain that the current situation with a Høyre-Frp government supported by Venstre and KrF will just continue. The relationsship between the two small parties and Frp is not very good, and especially the Christians are not comfortable with the current situation. Just this week KrF leader Knut Arild Hareide had another public feud with Frp immigration minister Sylvi Listhaug, and Hareide seems to prefer solutions without Frp in government. He would like a Høyre-KrF-Venstre government and could then maybe accept Frp as support party, but Frp has stated that they won't support a government they are not a part of. Hareide has proposed a centre-right government with Høyre, KrF, Venstre and Sp with the latter's Trygve Slagsvold Vedum as PM, but this was quickly rejected by Vadum, who prefer cooperation with Ap. Also these four parties don't look like they will get a majority. Another option for Hareide is to join a government with Ap and Sp, especially if the four current majority parties lose their majority. This could draw Ap closer to the middle and keep the socialists in SV and Rødt from any influence. The current polling average just gives these three parties a majority, but it will be tight.

The Greens are uncommitted and say they can work with anyone, except Frp. So we could end up in a situation like in Oslo after the last local elections where the Greens are the kingmakers. In that situation, they joined the centre-left parties and managed to get some significant environmental proposals adopted (carfree city center etc.). At the national level, it seems far more likely that they will join the centre-left parties as well, but I think Ap would rather work with the two centre-right parties than the Greens due to the radical green demands in relation to the oil and gas industry. Ap leader Jonas Gahr Støre has already rejected forming a government with the Greens for that reason, and I think he would really prefer not to depend on them.

Current polling average

Ap 30,0% (55 seats)
Høyre 24,6 (45)
Frp 13,1 (24)
SV 5,1 (9 )
Sp 10,6 (20)
KrF 5,3 (10)
Venstre 3,3 (2)
MDG 3,4 (2)
Rødt 2,7 (2)
Others 2,1 (0)

85 seats are needed for a majority.
Current majority parties: 81 seats
Opposition: 88 seats
Ap-Sp-KrF: 85 seats
Centre-right: 77 seats

pollofpolls.no

[Diouf]

You can try NRKs election barometer to find out which party you prefer. https://www.nrk.no/valg/2017/valgomat/

I will translate the questions below:
The answers should be obvious from the emojis, but they are from left to right: Completely disagree, somewhat disagree, no attitude, somewhat agree, completely agree.

1. The state should raise taxes and duties to have enough money for public services
2. Drug addicts don't need punishments, they need help. Therefore, possesion of small drug doses for personal use should no longer be illegal.
3. The possibilities for drilling oil outside the coast of Lofoten, Vesterålen og Senja should be explored.
4. The 2016 police reform, which centralized the police in fewer police districts, was a bad idea and should be repealed.
5. We need to expand the defence budget so it reaches the 2% of GDP agreed upon in NATO
6. Parliament should set a limit for the number of children in a school class.
7. There are too many wolves in Norway, who cause damage. More of them should be shot.
8. The wealth tax makes it harder for Norwegian company owners to create jobs and should be reduced further.
9. Norway should quite the EEA.
10. We should limit the use of private companies in health care, schools and kindergardens.
11. The full-day school should be obligatory. This includes free shool meals, and means that (most) homework is done at the school with help from teachers/assistents.
12. All asylum seekers should be detained should be detained in closed centers until their identity has been completely checked.
13. It is a good thing with the "free health care choice" which allows patients to choose between private and public health care for treatment. Paid for by the public in both instances.
14. The politicians should start dismantling Norwegian oil production
15. Surrogate mothers should be allowed.
16. It has become to easy to hire people in temporary positions.
17. Unaccompanied asylum seekers aged 16-18 without a personal threat against them in their home country should be able to get a permanent stay in Norway.
18. We should keep and improve the "cash support" which allows families to get cash payments instead of getting a kindergarden spot for their child.
19. Big road projects, which will increase transportation by car, should be stopped.
20. It is important to keep a school subject called Christianity with dominant focus on that subject instead of a more general "religion" subject.
21. It is urgent that capitalism as our economic system is quickly phased out.
22. As a part of the current municipal reform, parliament should be able to force through mergers if the municipalities themselves can't reach the desired reduction.
23. It is more important that the big farms grow and produce more food than it is to keep small farms through the country.
24. A normal work day is too long and should be reduced to 6 hours.

Then at the end, the questions are lined up in the above order, and you can pick the most important issues for you. Then press "se resultat", and you will get your score.

[Diouf]

My own result:
Frp 80%
Høyre 79%
Ap 66%
KrF
V
Sp
MdG
Rødt
SV

[Diouf]

The debate yesterday was mostly about economic issues, particularly taxation, and "Norwegian values". It wasn't particularly well moderated and there was too much talking over each other. The last part mostly just became "Here's what I think is important, this is a crucial Norwegian value", with Red talking about how it was a crucial Norwegian value with financial sovereignty so economic links to the EU should be cut, KrF talking about how Christian values were important and we shouldn't do biotech etc. So it became a shattered part without much focus, and when the focus was shortly on immigration, it was mostly horrible points about the tone of the debate etc.

It was interesting/brave to see that Ap so clearly talk about raising taxes, so this gave a quite good and relatively clear debate between the blocs, although notably Hareide from KrF said that while the tax cuts during this term was right, it was now time to focus on strengthening public services and not make further tax cuts. Venstre seem much more in line with the government economically on the overall ideas about taxes, privatization etc.
Sp's leader Vadum clearly tried to steal voters from Frp with attacks on their record on taxation, the relationship to EU while also making quite tough statements on immigration. However, he didn't seem very sharp, and talked suprisingly little about decentralization and wolves.
KrF and FrP unsurprisingly clashed the hardest on immigration, and based on this debate, you wouldn't think the two could be a part of the same majority again.

A new Norstat poll for NRK with some interesting movements. A narrow majority (85-84) for the four current majority parties despite Venstre not being over the threshold (although getting close with 3.9%). Both Ap and Sp drop significantly, while the parties to their left, particularly the Greens, are on the rise. This poll means that in the polling average. both Venstre and the Greens are now closing in on the threshold, both rising to 3.6%.

[Diouf]

Venstre leader Trine Skei Grande now promises that the party will support any centre-right/right-wing government over one which includes Ap. This could be a quite wise move, at least in the short term, for a party that is close to the threshold, as it certainly means that voters who prefer a centre-right government could feel safe in lending them a tactical vote. Some moderate heroes or those with strong Frp-antipathies might not like it, but they are probably a smaller group and I would guess that many has already left the party. Venstre has not been as hesitant as KrF in working with FrP, but until now they have not ruled out cooperation with the centre-left parties. Grande still says that she would prefer a Høyre-Venstre-KrF government to a continued Høyre-FrP, but if an agreement can't be reached on the first option, she would continue to prefer the latter over working with Ap and the other left-wing parties.

[Diouf]

My question is MDG and R are not part of either one but if either are both cross the 4% line wouldn't the throw their support behind a Labour led.  For the centre-right coalition I am thinking they absolutely need the Venstre to cross the 4% line while hope MDG and R stay below it while for the centre-left coalition they may not rely on either but I cannot see MDG or R allowing a centre-right to go through.  The only way the centre-right could survive in that scenario is convince the Centre Party to switch allegiances but not sure how likely that is.  I don't see why MDG couldn't join the centre-left one if they cross the 4% mark and perhaps maybe if they agree to that you might get some tactical voting.  R is a bit trickier as they are on the extreme left and I am not sure AP wants to be relying on them, nonetheless if they held the balance of power, it is pretty obvious which way they would go.

R will without a doubt support a Labour-led coalition, although Støre would prefer not to be reliant on their votes. If such a scenario occurs, he will probably work heavily with KrF to avoid dependence on them. MDG has not commited to the left like R, but I have little doubt that they will end up supporting a left-wing coalition if they become king makers. But again, I think Støre will try quite hard to lure KrF instead. There is certainly movement of voters from Ap to MDG, but I think this is as much leftists who are disappointed with Støre's focus on the center than people who vote tactically. You are right that a clear commitment to the centre-left from MDG might convince more leftists to lend them a tactical vote, but so far it seems like they keep their mantra of not committing, which is used locally as well. Also, they are perhaps disappointed that Støre has already ruled them out as a coalition party.

The Centre Party has quite clearly rejected the overtures from KrF to join a centre-right government, so if the current four majority parties lose their majority, I think there is very little chance of a centre-right government.

[Diouf]

So if a centre-right majority becomes mathematically impossible, would the KrF consider supporting a Labour led coalition in order to pull them towards the centre as opposed to having them pulled left.

The KrF's choice after the election will likely be very important, even with a continued majority for the four current majority parties. They have made clear that they prefer a centre-right government (Høyre - KrF - Venstre), but it is unlikely that these parties will get a majority, even if then include Sp, who has so far rejected these ideas. So if Frp as expected rejects this centre-right government without them, the question is whether KrP will continue to support a Høyre-Frp government (probably in an looser form than now) or cross the floor and team up with Ap and Sp. If the centre-left parties win a majority, the latter move becomes easier and more legitimate as they can use the argument of keeping Rødt and SV out of influence.

My understanding is if the Liberals can crack the 4% and the Reds and MDG stay under 4% it's a toss up and could go either way.  But if the Liberals fall below 4% or either the R or MDG cracks it, then it pretty much guarantees a centre-left government.  Is this correct?

Well, not guarantees. NRKs Norstat poll from last week showed a 85-84 majority for the right-wing parties with Venstre at 3,9% and 3 seats. But yes, Venstre above the threshold gives the right wing parties a decent chance, while Rødt and/or MDG above it makes a centre-left government very likely. And all three parties seem to be moving upward so far during the campaign. In the polloffpolls.no average, MDG is now at 3.9%, Venstre at 3.7% and Rødt and 3,0%.

[Diouf]

Some news from recent days in the campaign.

Ap voters strongly prefer cooperation with SV over KrF. In an InFact poll for VG, 60.9% of Ap voters prefer cooperation with SV over KrF, while only 17.3% prefer cooperation with KrF over SV. This fact probably helps explain why Ap is leaking voters left; they are dissatisfied with Støre's centrist tendencies. In the pollofpolls.no average, Ap is down 3% since June while SV, MDG and Rødt are all up 0.7-1%.

Sp wants to limit Støre's proposed tax increases. Sp leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum has said that Ap's proposed tax increases of 15 billion NOK are too high, and that they would prefer a level around half of that. Sp also states that the focus should be on cutting excises and duties, and raising taxes for the rich. He is particularly angry about the raised diesel duty in last year's budget, claiming that this reflected a Oslo-centric world view, while people in many part of Norway need a car.

Frp proposes break with human rights conventions. Immigration minister Sylvi Listhaug proposes that Norway should make a break with the ECHR, which limits the actions that can be taken in immigration policies, e.g. sending out criminal immigrants, creating closed centers for asylum seekers with undisclosed identity as well as for rejected asylum seekers until they can be sent out. None of the other parties support this, not even Høyre.

[Diouf]

Jonas Gahr Støre warms up to Tuesday's Prime Minister Debate by accusing Erna Solberg of "making Norway a colder and harder society". According to Støre, she has done this by taking a "right wing populist party" into the government. He attacks Immigration Minister Sylvi Listhaug for her policies and rhetorics, and says that Solberg has allowed her and Frp to lower Norway's standards. Støre makes clear that an Ap-led government will change that:"My promise to the voters is clear. In a government led by me, we will bring back decency in the way we talk about other humans. For me, this election is a choice between different value sets".

Quite interesting attack from Støre. Obviously a big chunk of voters will agree with this criticism, but what about the median voter? Støre might attract some of the Frp-critical voters from Venstre and Krf, but other than that, this seems mostly likely a way for Ap to try to regain some of their leaking left-wing voters by standing up to the Frp. However, if this gets as much attention as I expect, including dominating the debate on Tuesday, then I think it could very likely help the government's chances of staying in power. Perhaps I'm just too influenced by Danish events, where it did not exactly help Social Democrats winning elections, when they attacked DPP for their tone on immigration.

[Diouf]

Ap keeps dropping like a stone in polls. In a new Norstat poll for NRK, Høyre is bigger than Ap. Erna Solberg's party gets 25.7%, while Støre's Ap gets 24.4%. If this materialises in the election, it will be the first time since 1924 that Høyre is bigger than Ap. Despite Venstre being below the threshold and the Greens above it, the current four majority parties get 85 seats while the combined opposition gets 84 seats. The poll also shows that Solberg is the preferred PM for 46,8% while 36,8% prefer Støre.

How would Aps 2013 voters vote today according to the poll. Still a lot of doubters.

[Diouf]

Just realised there will be a Sami Parliament election as well? Anything interesting happening with that?

From what I can read, it seems like the last year has been quite chaotic in Sami politics. The minority Norwegian Sami Association government lost its majority in parliament in December 2016, and was replaced by a coalition of Ap, Høyre and Arja. However, there have been plenty of internal troubles in Ap, and the new government leader Vibeke Larsen was very controversial. She doesn't really speak Sami, and Ap chose Ronny Wilhelmsen as their lead candidate for the election instead. So Larsen left the party and created her own Šiella party. In the poll, I could found this new party looks unlikely to get any significant support. Ap looks like they will be clearly the biggest party, so Wilhelmsen is likely to be the new government leader. Arja, which supported Norwegian Sami Association before taking them down, drops from 11.4 to 3.7%. But I could imagine this election is hard to poll, and I have little clue about whether they are usually accurate.

[Diouf]

The way the polls are moving, I will now say that if Venstre gets above the threshold, things are looking very good for the current four majority parties, even if the Greens cross the threshold as well. A recent Respons poll for Aftenposten has this scenario with a 88-81 lead for the current majority parties.

Frp is getting a great deal of attention on their key issue of immigration, which means that they are reaching the 16.3% or above from 2013 in several polls in these days. First, Sylvi Listhaug got a great deal of attention with her proposal to stop following the ECHR's rulings, then Støre decided to make his attack on Solberg for "making Norway a colder and harder place" due to taking Frp into government and accepting Listhaug's rhetoric and proposals, and the finally, there has been a lot of talk about Listhaug's recent trip to Sweden. The Swedish immigration minister Helene Fritzon cancelled on her just before their planned meeting, so instead Listhaug went to the crime-infested ghetto of Rinkeby to illustrate the failed Swedish immigration policies that Norway should try to avoid.

[Diouf]

The newspaper VG quotes sources in Ap for saying that Støre's main strategy in the rest of the election will be attacking the government and Solberg in particular, based on Listhaug's journey to Sweden and her general behaviour as immigration minister. The sources say that they hope this will mobilize Ap doubters and convince potential switchers to SV/MDG by focusing on getting Frp out of the government offices, that it will weaken the picture of Erna Solberg as "Norway's Merkel" by continously branding her as "the only Western European PM to have taken a right populist party into government"* and that it will attract or at least de-mobilize KrF/Venstre voters, who don't like Frp. It is always hard to know how reliable such information is, and even if it is reliable, it might be changed a bit now that the information is out. But if there's any truth in it, I can only describe it as extremely brave to base the last part of the campaign on this. There is quite the risk that immigration-sceptic Ap or Sp voters will leave the ship. The fact that Venstre is hovering below the 4%-threshold makes the strategy more viable, but there have been polls during this campaign with centre-right majority despite Venstre being below the threshold.

* Lucky that the Norwegian election is held before the Austrian one

[Diouf]

KrF leader Hareide now commits closer to Erna Solberg than he has done hitherto. He says that if the majority is retained, Solberg will remain as PM, even if she continues governing with Frp. However, he maintains that there won't be a formalized cooperation agreement as in the past four years and he won't guarantee to support Solberg's government for the full term.

[Diouf]

For the first time, more than 1 million Norwegian voters have already made their choice. The early voting period ended yesterday, and 27.3% of the electorate has already crossed of their choice. This means that 1 029 014 people have already voted.

Due to concerns about the safety of the country's electronic devices, it has been decided that all counting shall take place by hand, whereas previously many districts have been able to count early votes via machines. This has been the case in f.ex. Trondheim, Bergen and Oslo, where the municipalities with short notice have to find extra staff. This means the results can be delayed from some parts of the country, particularly considering the high amount of early votes.

In around half of the country, the election already starts tomorrow at around noon when the polls will be open for a few hours. Polls are then open most of the day Monday, where individual opening times for each locality is also allowed, but they must close at latest at 21.00. At that point the news stations will announce the results of their exit polls.

[Diouf]

The last election debate took place yesterday in Bergen. KrFs Hareide's performance has been rated poorly in the media; he was seen as too vague and was pressed hard on his flip-flop of accepting Frp in government for another term. Perhaps KrF in the end will be more threathened by the threshold than Venstre? SV's Lysbakken was seen as performing very well again, with some solid and strong attacks on the current government. The party has moved from 4.6% to 5.9% in the polling average during the campaign, and perhaps their end result will be even higher. However, SV's success could also deliver some problems for the opposition if he draws in too many of the left of Ap-voters, so that MDG and/or Rødt won't cross the threshold. Neither of the two latter's party leaders were seen as having a notable debate.

The three big party leaders were seen as performing relatively equal. Solberg was as usual very moderate and somewhat technocratic in her language use, but did go a bit further on immigration than previously, which could be very helpful in causing a clearer divide.

[Diouf]

what was the main issues in campaign? and how parties stand on them?

Ipsos poll on the most important issues for Dagbladet. The three top issues listed by voters are education, health and immigration. The below figure shows who the voters think will best handle each issue. The issues in the figure are education, health, job creation, keep the economy in order, integration, immigration, elderly care, municipal economy, family and equality policy, transport, climate and environment, nature protection, district policies, city policies.

[Diouf]

I don't think more polls will come now. Perhaps one or two tomorrow morning before the polls open.

Pollofpolls.no average

Ap 27,2 (48)   
Høyre 24,2 (42)
Frp 14,6 (28)
SV 5,9 (10)
Sp 10,1 (17)
KrF 4,5 (8 )
Venstre 4,2 (7)
MDG 4,0 (7)
Rødt 3,4 (2)
Andre 1,7 (0)

The narrowest majority possible for the current government with 85 seats.                            

[Diouf]

KrF and Venstre both at around 4.0%. The first just below, the latter just above in the prognosis. And neither MDG nor Rødt above it.

[Diouf]

If H does overtake Ap in terms of vote share would that not be the first time Ap is not the highest vote winning party since the 1920s ?

1924 was the last time

[Diouf]

NRK say that currently Venstre is 4.000 votes below the threshold, KrF 1.000 votes above it.

[Diouf]

I believe it's mostly the early votes that have been counted so far. In the early vote share, both KrF, Venstre and MDG have 3.9%. KrF is probably more likely to have voters who have turned up today, so based on that, I would also think they are the most likely to cross the threshold

[Diouf]

KrF is probably more likely to have voters who have turned up today, so based on that, I would also think they are the most likely to cross the threshold

Why? Just curious.

Older, less educated voters than both of the two other parties.

Looked at 2013 numbers:

KrF early voting: 45 297 Voting day: 113 178
V  early voting: 43 421 Voting day: 104 854
MDG early voting 29 255 Voting day: 49 897

Venstre actually around equal to KrF in share of early voting, but early voting makes up a clearly bigger share of MDG votes in 2013.