MD - Washington Post/UMD: Hogan 41 - Democrat Nominee 37

[Gass3268]

Larry Hogan 41% (-5)
Democratic Nominee 37% (+7)

Hogan's Approval:

65% Approve (-6)
17% Disapprove (-1)
18% No Opinion (+7%)

Source

[Skye]

His approval rating is still ridiculously high. Plus, it's generic democrat.

[smoltchanov]

His approval rating is still ridiculously high. Plus, it's generic democrat.

Generic doesn't irritate anyone, hence - polls higher..

[Gass3268]

His approval rating is still ridiculously high. Plus, it's generic democrat.

Generic doesn't irritate anyone, hence - polls higher..

But it's Maryland, we voted out a popular Republican in 2006 and the state has only gotten more Democratic since.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

His approval rating is still ridiculously high. Plus, it's generic democrat.

Generic doesn't irritate anyone, hence - polls higher..

But it's Maryland, we voted out a popular Republican in 2006 and the state has only gotten more Democratic since.

Ehrlich had a higher disapproval rating than 17% though and is probably to Hogan's right on the issues.

[Gass3268]

His approval rating is still ridiculously high. Plus, it's generic democrat.

Generic doesn't irritate anyone, hence - polls higher..

But it's Maryland, we voted out a popular Republican in 2006 and the state has only gotten more Democratic since.

Ehrlich had a higher disapproval rating than 17% though and is probably to Hogan's right on the issues.

Sure, but lets see a year from now. Trump's going to be an anchor around Hogan's neck.

[Devout Centrist]

Not good for Hogan, all things considered

[Maxwell]

Notice the negative trend. Proceed with caution, Hogan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ratings change Tilt D/Tossup. In a close election, Dems can pull it off.

[InheritTheWind]

I still don't see Hogan losing just yet, but from living there I know for a fact that the MoCo/Howard/PG/Baltimore areas are all vehemently anti-Trump, and I would expect much higher turnout than 2014 there as people are itching to take their anger out on the Republican party. Trump will be an albatross around Hogan's neck.

[hcallega]

From my view on the ground, Dems should be favored if they nominate a strong candidate (John Delaney and Ken Ullman both jump to mind). Hogan's struggled with Trump in the White House, whereas he did a good job positioning himself as a common-sense executive positioned in-between the likes of Pres. Obama and the more radical Congressional Republicans. That doesn't work when you're in the same party as the POTUS, and your base generally supports him and wants you to as well.

[Gass3268]

I really don't know a Democrat that could really defeat Hogan in 2018. Hogan is safe for reelection and Democrats have a better chance in Texas than in Maryland this cycle.

Haha, no

[Xing]

If Hogan's approval rating is that high in a year and a half, he'll most likely win, but a high approval rating for a Republican isn't always enough to save them in a deeply Democratic state. I'd still rate this race Toss-Up, or maybe Tilt R.

[jamestroll]

Mr. Wulfric says he has never seen me in favor of a Republican. Here is one I would probably favor.

I know it's controversial but I tend to only make endorsements in the two states I am connected with.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Easy Day pickup.

[sg0508]

Again, the GOP ceiling in MD is very low, maybe at 54% tops.  Add to that the anti-Trump factor and Hogan is going to struggle. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

Lean D. A Senate race occurring in 2018 helps the D candidate.

[The Other Castro]

I'm still keeping this at Lean R, or Tilt R at worst, for the moment.