Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 17, 2018, 03:52:25 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash)
| | |-+  Spanish elections and politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 76 77 78 79 80 [81] Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 240362 times)
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,853
Western Sahara


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2000 on: October 02, 2018, 11:36:55 am »

Yesterday it was the anniversary of the illegal referendum called by the separatist government of Catalonia. It wasn't a a legally valid referendum and the results were not internationally approved. However the October 1 will be remembered by the unnecessary police brutality, which was the visible consequence of the Rajoy's awkwardness. About 2 million of Catalans, overwhelmingly pro-independence, turned out on that day to express their desire to vote. I think the leaders of the independence movement of Catalonia are a bunch of liars that have fed their people with false hopes and false arguments. Anyway there is some Spanish centralist nationalism that is even worse, Those citizens were excercising their freedom of expression and casting ballots in a fake referendum does not harm anybody. The disproportionate police response damaged the international reputation of Spain.

The independence movement claims to be peaceful and civil. This has been true so far, but there are disturbing signs on the horizon. Yesterday 'radical separatists'  tried to storm the Parliament of Catalonia

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/10/02/inenglish/1538467014_334868.html

Quote
Hundreds of radical separatists defied the Catalan police on Monday, attempting to storm the regional parliament on the first anniversary of an unauthorized referendum on independence.

There were unprecedented scenes when violent protesters advanced towards the legislative building at the end of what had been a peaceful demonstration by thousands of pro-independence Catalans in Barcelona. At around 9.30pm, hooded activists broke through a police cordon and marched to the doors of the building crying “Occupy parliament!”
Logged

MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,358
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2001 on: October 02, 2018, 01:29:21 pm »

BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

Quote
Forty-three years after the death of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, the Socialist Party (PSOE) government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has begun the complex process of exhuming his remains from the Valley of the Fallen memorial site.

Today, the Cabinet approved a legislative decree that will add a pair of articles to the Historical Memory Law to legally safeguard the exhumation. Once approved, the decree will be put to a historic vote in Congress.

Wonderful news.

Why do C's even abstain. They should be a liberal pro-Europe political party, but they secretly still admire Franco. Ugh, Spanish politics is sick.
Because a lot of their support comes from nationalists. They hammered their colors to the mast in the Catalonia crisis.
Logged

tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,304
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2002 on: October 02, 2018, 01:41:15 pm »

And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,027


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2003 on: October 02, 2018, 01:45:21 pm »

And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468

Well, that would be a quicker govt. collapse then expected, I thought they would last till spring.
Logged

I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,304
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2004 on: October 02, 2018, 02:20:31 pm »

Yeah, me too. I expected that either Sánchez would expire his term, call a snap election well after the EU elections (say, autumn 2019) or the budget fails and Sánchez calls the election in February/March at the earliest.

Though I guess the last scenario can still happen, PDECat might not support Sánchez but they sure aren't going to support Casado/Rivera either. Though maybe Rivera should get in touch with them and call a no confidence vote which clearly is intended just to call an election with an independent caretaker government?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,853
Western Sahara


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2005 on: October 04, 2018, 10:28:13 am »

And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468

The ultimatum failed in less than 24 hours, due to the lack of support from ERC and PDeCAT. Premier Quim Torra, who is an independent elected in the Puigdemont list (JxCAT), acted in his own without talking with the parties supporting his government (I ignore if he contacted Puigdemont and his Waterloo clique). Torra was asked to resign in previous days by the 'radical separatists' of the CDR (Committees to Defend the Republic, close to the CUP) and by the 'unionist' opposition (PP and Cs). Just before the October 1 anniversary Catalan premier encouraged the self-organized CDR groups to keep pressure in the streets. Hardline separatist Torra was being called 'traitor' by the CDR radicals because of previous incidents with the regional police and because his government isn't implementing the 'Catalan Republic'. Kind words didn't ingratiate Torra with the 'radicals', whom tried to storm the regional parliament after the October 1 demonstration forcing regional police to repeal them. These incidents prove that the separatist parties and organizations (ANC, Òmnium) are the losing control of the treets, as well as show the incompetence of the regional government. As for the ultimatum ensuing the riots, it shows that Torra is an amateurish and incompetent gambler unworthy of Machiavelli. I think Catalan parties are aware that making Pedro Sánchez to fall will benefit Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera- Unlike Sánchez, Casado and Rivera don't want to talk with separatists. The two parties of the Spanish Right want to implement article 155 again, imposing again direct rule in Catalonia and extending the control of the central government to education, TV and radio. Casado also wants to outlaw separatist parties.

Days ago Quim Torra sent a letter to the Spanish PM copied to world leaders

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/10/04/inenglish/1538642944_252769.html

Quote
Catalan premier Quim Torra sent a letter at the end of September to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, copied to US President Donald Trump, the pope and other world leaders, in which he asked for help in mediating a referendum on Catalan independence.

According to the Spanish newspaper El Periódico, Torra expresses willingness to engage in negotiations with the government and makes no reference of the ultimatum he made on Tuesday, when he threatened to withdraw support for the Socialist Party (PSOE) government in Congress if Sánchez does not propose an authorized referendum on secession from Spain within a month

The letter is written in English and addressed to Sánchez, but Torra also copied in Trump, Pope Francis, EU heads of government and the presidents of China, Ukraine and Kosovo.

 






 
Logged

tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,304
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2006 on: October 07, 2018, 05:37:56 am »

El Confidencial did an interesting report analyzing the voters of the 2 latest "emerging parties": PACMA and Vox

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2018-10-06/vox-pacma-encuestas-elecciones-cis-escano_1626357/



Basically:

Vox has an average age of 55. So quite the old party, probably shared with PP.
PACMA has a very young base, with the average age being 33!.

Vox (much like similar parties in Europe) has a very masculine base of 63% men, while PACMA has a very feminine base of 70% women. In both cases it's a lot more skewed than the main 4 parties (which never go beyond something like 57-43 either way)

PACMA is voted mostly by leftists, with 47% being on the left (0-4) and another 25% on the centre (5). Interestingly there are 6.3% of right wing PACMA voters.

On the other hand Vox is quite on the right, with almost no voters on the left, 16% on the centre and 21% on the centre-right (6). More than 60% of Vox voters place themselves clearly right of center (7-10)
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,304
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2007 on: October 08, 2018, 08:34:36 am »

It's finally official now, Susana Diaz will call a snap Andalusian election for the 2nd of December, in order to avoid having it the same day as a hypothetical snap election.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20181008/susana-diaz-convoca-elecciones-anticipadas-andalucia-7077227

Though honestly she should have called it much sooner (ideally for late October), particularly when the ERE corruption judgement is around the corner. I wonder when will be the exact date, but the court ruling will certainly come during the campaign or just before it.

In any case, Andalucia is Safe PSOE, the only question is whether she will do a deal with Cs again or maybe with Podemos (even though the Andalusian Podemos branch hates her and she hates Podemos as well)
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,304
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2008 on: October 14, 2018, 09:38:44 am »

A couple of new regional polls (we will start getting more and more of these as we get closer to May 2019). We also get one of the few polls that show Vox with chances at a seat in a regional election (which surprised me honestly)

El Heraldo de Aragón for Aragon regional elections

PSOE: 23.6% (17-19)
PP: 22.3% (16-19)
Cs: 21.4% (15-17)
UP: 17.3% (11-12)
PAR: 5.7% (3)
ChA: 3.2% (1)
Vox: 2.7% (0-1)

https://www.electograph.com/2018/10/aragon-amasm-181014.html

My rating: Lean PP (flip)

Even in the best case scenario for the left, they still lose their majority. IMO Lambán is toast, only way he manages to hold on is with a PSOE-Cs coalition (with or without PAR). But the left will certainly lose their majority here

They also did polls for the mayors of the 3 provincial capitals (Zaragoza, Huesca, Teruel). The general summary seems to be:

https://www.electograph.com/2018/10/aragon-capitales-amasm-181014.html

Huesca: Tossup. The left will probably win in terms of votes, but because of Aragón Sí Puede (which may be Podemos, IU or neither!) and ChA falling shortly below the 5% threshold (both around 4%), a right wing government is within the margin of error.

Zaragoza: Lean PSOE (flip). Mayor Santiesteve (Podemos) is toast. He drops from a narrow second in 2015 all the way to 4th. Zaragoza for some reason has been quite a left wing city (even holding its PSOE mayor in the 2011 wave!). However the left combined still adds up to a majority. PSOE goes up a lot, while PP stays the same and Cs rises quite a bit. ChA may or may not make the threshold. Finally Vox was polled and got around 3%, well below the threshold (but still sort of close).

Teruel: Safe PP. The right increases in a place where PP+Cs already got short of a majority by just 1 seat in 2015 (currently there's a PP+Cs+PAR coalition). The only question is how much will it increase and how close Cs will get to PP, but really Teruel is safe for PP.

CC internal only in Gran Canaria, for the Cabildo and the regional parliament

Cabildo

NC: 27.5% (9)
PSOE: 17.4% (5-6)
CC-Unidos: 14.7% (4-5)
PP: 12.5% (4)
Cs: 10.8% (3)
UP: 10.7% (3)
Others: 6.4%

My rating: Safe NC

Morales is very popular and is safe IMO. Only question is whether NC-PSOE will be enough or whether he'll also need Podemos or someone else.

Canary Islands parliament (15 Gran Canaria seats)

PSOE: 20.5% (3-4)
NC: 17.4% (3)
UP: 15.8% (2-3)
PP: 13.5% (2)
Cs: 13.3% (2)
CC-Unidos: 13.3% (2)
Others: 6.2%

Lol, all parties almost tied with each other. No rating since this is just one constituency, but in general ok news for the left (though they lose 1 seat compared to 2015) and great news for CC, which goes up in a hostile island (then again it's a CC internal so no wonder).

The poll also includes several approval ratings for various local politicians:

https://www.canarias7.es/binrepository/estimacio-n-voto-octubre-2018_4114712_20181013220146.pdf

Honestly the most surprising is that premier Fernando Clavijo is somehow above water in the most hostile island to him! (5.3/10)

Keep in mind that this isn't just an internal, but also an old internal, allegedly from July.
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,304
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2009 on: Today at 07:08:30 am »

Well, the budget was presented the other day to Brussels and presented by the government. The big changes in the budget are:

Increasing minimum wage to 900€

Increasing income tax for those earning over 130 000€

Reforming the law of urban rents, to protect tenants, to allow municipalities to put price controls in bad areas and increasing the budget of the national housing plan by 200 million €

Raising the smallest pensions by 3% in 2019 and making pensions rise according to inflation from now on

Rasing the minimum corporate tax to 15%, taxing dividends and profits (currently they are 100% tax free, now they'll only be 95% tax free), introducing a financial transactions tax of 0.2%



Also, we got our first poll for Andalucía after the election was called

Aurea Project for esdiario.com

PSOE: 32.8% (37-40)
PP: 23.6% (29-32)
Cs: 18.5% (20-22)
AA: 19.0% (19-22)

PACMA: 2.3% (0)
Vox: 1.0% (0)
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 76 77 78 79 80 [81] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines