Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 23, 2019, 03:25:27 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash)
| | |-+  Alberta Election 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: Alberta Election 2019  (Read 4351 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,687
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2018, 04:23:53 pm »

Fildebrandt is starting his own party 🤣
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,319
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: July 18, 2018, 06:19:13 pm »

Fildebrandt is starting his own party 🤣

Sounds like the Libertarian one.  Here some policy proposals we just might see from him.

1.  Eliminate the provincial income tax and replace with a 10% PST.
2.  Entrench property rights in the Alberta constitution
3.  Eliminate as many environmental laws as possible.
4.  Cut off funding to all universities and colleges that don't fully allow free speech, that includes letting alt right speakers speak on campus
5.  Bring in school vouchers and allow home schooling and private schools to be fully tax deductible against PST and property taxes.
6.  End all restrictions on private health care and allow full market competition
7.  Withdraw from CPP and instead let the private sector take over here.
8.  Make all purchases of private health insurance fully tax deductible
9.  Bring in right to work laws.
10.  Make the right to keep and bear arms entrenched in law and opposed all restrictions on law abiding people owning firearms.

These would be a wet dream for people who feel the UCP is not libertarian enough, but somehow doubt they would be popular even in Alberta.

Joking aside, I suspect his party will go the same way the Trilium Party did in the last Ontario election and BC Conservative party in the last BC election, i.e nowhere.
Logged

Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 835
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: July 18, 2018, 09:47:35 pm »

Fildebrandt is starting his own party 🤣

For context, this appears to be a bit of a benevolent takeover of an existing party. Although it recently changed its name to the Freedom Conservative Party (when they did this, I predicted they were trying to get Fildebrandt to cross over), the party has existed in 1999 under a variety of names and usually with a separatist orientation. Over time, the party has been known as the Alberta First Party, the Separation Party, the Alberta First Party (again), the Western Freedom Party, and finally the Freedom Conservative Party.
Logged
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,287
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: July 18, 2018, 09:51:16 pm »

Joking aside, I suspect his party will go the same way the Trilium Party did in the last Ontario election and BC Conservative party in the last BC election, i.e nowhere.

Or, whatever Jim Pankiw has attempted in Saskatchewan.
Logged
Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 835
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: July 18, 2018, 10:17:47 pm »

Looks like Fildebrandt's party will still have an Alberta nationalist edge. According to him:

Quote
"It's also going to focus on a broader set of issues [than the Wildrose]. We reject the status quo of Alberta's place in confederation right now," he said. "Alberta is treated as a colony that is milked and not treated as an equal partner in confederation and simply carping about minor tweaks to the equalization formula are only the tip of the iceberg, which is why we will demand the immediate repatriation of all powers that Alberta possesses under the Constitution, which it does not currently exercise, meaning we will repatriate control over EI, CPP, administration of the Firearms Act, immigration and tax collection."

Also, Fildebrandt says that they will only run candidates in ridings where the NDP "doesn't have a chance of winning." How they'll determine this isn't exactly clear, but I imagine it means that they'll run about 35-50 candidates, mostly outside of the major cities except for some suburban Calgary ridings with UCP incumbents and where the 2015 PC+WRP vote was strong.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,687
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: July 18, 2018, 11:12:51 pm »

So the Ottawa boy supports Alberta separatism now eh.
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,287
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: July 19, 2018, 09:27:12 pm »

With a name like "Freedom Conservative", I expect them to corner the Proud Boys demo.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,598
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: July 19, 2018, 09:37:18 pm »

With a name like "Freedom Conservative", I expect them to corner the Proud Boys demo.

The 'Pros' and the "New Boys (or Nu Boys)" were mentioned in an episode of WKRP in Cincinnati.  In my opinion, this is one of the best scenes ever in a television show:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhbqIJZ8wCM
Logged


"Freedom just around the corner for you/but with truth so far off, what good will it do?"  Bob Dylan "Jokerman"

Could the 13th Mississippi Congressional District (MS-13) be competitive for the Democrats?
cp
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 926
United Kingdom


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: July 20, 2018, 03:22:40 pm »

With a name like "Freedom Conservative", I expect them to corner the Proud Boys demo.

They're also a lock with incels, red pillers, racial realists, Rebel Media doners, Promise Keepers, and TERFs.

If they can get the support of the Stonecutters (and/or No Homers) they might be a real threat.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,319
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: July 23, 2018, 06:28:32 pm »

How many here think the NDP still could win and if so how would they do it both in terms of votes and geography.  I don't think they can win the popular vote, but I still could see them winning a narrow majority as their vote is more efficient than the UCP (UCP will likely get over 70% and in some cases 80% in much of rural Alberta), while low 60s is the highest I can see the NDP getting (probably in Notley's own riding) and in fact outside central Edmonton I don't see them getting over 50% in many ridings.

How it would happen is a combination of bozo remarks like in 2012 with the Wildrose party as well as Kenney's austerity plans scare off a lot of middle of the road voters, so the UCP only gets around 43-45%, which is very plausible.  Youth turnout is quite high and NDP wins big there while the Alberta Party gets around 15% of the popular vote and most of that comes at the expense of the UCP, not NDP with mostly former PC supporters who find the UCP too right wing going to the Alberta Party.  They only win one of two seats, but create the splits for the NDP.  Progressives unite behind the NDP, so they get close to 40% (note last federal election, 40% voted for centre-left parties, so if they all unite behind the NDP, they get around 40%).  Seatwise, the NDP not only sweeps Edmonton, but wins almost all seats in the Capital Region.  In Calgary, Alberta Party gets around 20% allowing the NDP to sweep all the inner ridings with the UCP only winning along the periphery thus it is closer but NDP still wins just over half the seats in Calgary.  In the rest of Alberta, NDP wins smaller centres like Lethbridge and Red Deer. 

Admittedly this is a long shot, but if the stars line up the NDP does have a path to majority albeit a very narrow one.  Nonetheless Trump in the US had a similarly narrow path to victory so as long as the path remains open they still can win.  That being said I think there is about an 80% chance UCP wins a majority next May and Jason Kenney becomes the next premier, but I think there is a 20% chance of either another NDP majority or a hung parliament.  Off course UCP could do better than expected and sweep Calgary, rest of Alberta and pick up much of suburban Edmonton winning around 65 seats and high 50s in the popular vote while NDP falls to mid 20s.  That would be the opposite extreme which is unlikely but possible.
Logged

Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 835
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: July 24, 2018, 01:23:23 am »

The NDP chances of winning aren't yet at 0%, but I don't expect them to win the next election. The NDP don't necessarily have a greater vote efficiency than the UCP: I expect them to run up the margins in a number of Edmonton seats. If Notley could get over 60% in Edmonton-Strathcona when the party was getting 11% province-wide, I'd be surprised if she fell below 70% this time around. While I don't think that they'll win, I would expect the NDP to get at least 30% of the vote and 25-30 seats. But I digress...

It is fun to try and imagine what another NDP government would look like geographically. Right now, this would be my guess for the 44 seats (in no particular order) that they need to win another majority:

1-20. Every seat in Edmonton proper
21. Calgary-Buffalo
22. Calgary-Cross
23. Calgary-Currie
24. Calgary-East
25. Calgary-Klein
26. Calgary-McCall
27. Calgary-Mountain View
28. Calgary-Varsity
29. Lethbridge-East
30. Lethbridge-West
31. Red Deer-North
32. Red Deer-South
33. St. Albert
34. Morinville-St. Albert
35. Sherwood Park
36. Strathcona-Sherwood Park
37. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
38. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
39. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland
40. Leduc-Beaumont
41. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin
42. Banff-Kananaskis
43. Lesser Slave Lake
44. Peace River

Mathematically based on last election's results, for this to happen the NDP would somehow need to beat the UCP by a couple percent in the popular vote. But we all know that this sort of math rarely turns out to be accurate.

Also, just for fun: in the above scenario, the UCP seat with the narrowest margin of victory over the NDP would either be Calgary-Bow, Grande Prairie, or West Yellowhead (an outside shot). We would also have the highest chance of seeing two MLAs elected who are neither NDP or UCP. One would be Greg Clark in Calgary-Elbow for the ABP. The other would either be a second ABP MLA (probably Karen McPherson in Calgary-Beddington) or Derek Fildebrandt under the FCP banner in Chestermere-Strathmore.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,319
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: July 31, 2018, 05:28:43 pm »

Mainstreet out with another poll and looks like UCP has rebounded although regional numbers interesting.  UCP is taken a statiscally significant lead in Edmonton which is normally an NDP stronghold, but in Calgary UCP only 15 points ahead so NDP not totally out of it there.  Note these are the CMAs not city proper so UCP numbers are high in Edmonton as it includes surrounding areas in the Capital region which went mostly NDP, but far more vulnerable than the city proper.  On the other hand that is good news for the NDP in Calgary as the UCP is likely running up the margins in the surrounding areas as well as probably the south side of the city, so the NDP could very well be in the lead still in the central part.  Nonetheless UCP leads amongst all ages so a big turnout by millennials won't necessarily save the NDP if the poll numbers are correct.

UCP 52.1%
NDP32.5%
Alberta Party 5.4%
Liberals 4.8%
Greens3.1%
Others 2.1%
Logged

Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 835
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: August 01, 2018, 12:46:53 pm »

Mainstreet out with another poll and looks like UCP has rebounded although regional numbers interesting.  UCP is taken a statiscally significant lead in Edmonton which is normally an NDP stronghold, but in Calgary UCP only 15 points ahead so NDP not totally out of it there.  Note these are the CMAs not city proper so UCP numbers are high in Edmonton as it includes surrounding areas in the Capital region which went mostly NDP, but far more vulnerable than the city proper.  On the other hand that is good news for the NDP in Calgary as the UCP is likely running up the margins in the surrounding areas as well as probably the south side of the city, so the NDP could very well be in the lead still in the central part.  Nonetheless UCP leads amongst all ages so a big turnout by millennials won't necessarily save the NDP if the poll numbers are correct.

UCP 52.1%
NDP32.5%
Alberta Party 5.4%
Liberals 4.8%
Greens3.1%
Others 2.1%


The results amongst Millennials in particular in that poll are giving me flashbacks to the Calgary Mayoral election.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,319
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: August 01, 2018, 03:08:07 pm »

Mainstreet out with another poll and looks like UCP has rebounded although regional numbers interesting.  UCP is taken a statiscally significant lead in Edmonton which is normally an NDP stronghold, but in Calgary UCP only 15 points ahead so NDP not totally out of it there.  Note these are the CMAs not city proper so UCP numbers are high in Edmonton as it includes surrounding areas in the Capital region which went mostly NDP, but far more vulnerable than the city proper.  On the other hand that is good news for the NDP in Calgary as the UCP is likely running up the margins in the surrounding areas as well as probably the south side of the city, so the NDP could very well be in the lead still in the central part.  Nonetheless UCP leads amongst all ages so a big turnout by millennials won't necessarily save the NDP if the poll numbers are correct.

UCP 52.1%
NDP32.5%
Alberta Party 5.4%
Liberals 4.8%
Greens3.1%
Others 2.1%


The results amongst Millennials in particular in that poll are giving me flashbacks to the Calgary Mayoral election.

Agreed on millennials they mess up a lot, but even if millennials were say to vote NDP by a 20 point margin UCP would still be ahead albeit by a much smaller margin.  To be fair Mainstreet did correctly call the last Ontario election and asides from Calgary municipal election track record is pretty good.  They also overestimated the NDP in 2015 like most pollsters although still correctly predicted the winner.
Logged

mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,319
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2018, 03:24:36 am »

Two more polls out, one from Abacus and one from Mainstreet.  Both show UCP with a healthy lead although seems UCP lead is more they are successfully uniting the conservative vote and less so about any enthusiasm for Jason Kenney although his approval ratings are okay.  Rachel Notley's are not great, but marginally better than Christy Clark, Brian Gallant, Philippe Couillard, and Stephen Harper, while significantly better than Kathleen Wynne and Greg Selinger so its tough to win with her approval ratings but not impossible.  Her biggest challenge is uniting the progressive vote won't be sufficient; she needs to pull away some traditional conservative voters to win and that will be tough.

Abacus - Online

UCP 48%
NDP 33%
Alberta Party 8%
Liberals 8%

Mainstreet Research - IVR

UCP 54.3%
NDP 29.1%
Alberta Party 5.5%
Liberals 5.2%

If Mainstreet were correct, you would see a UCP landslide, likely over 60 seats and possibly even over 70 seats while NDP would struggle to reach 20 seats.  If Abacus are correct, then solid UCP win, but probably 55-60 seats, while NDP still forms a strong opposition, probably around 25-30 seats.  Alberta Party will likely hold Greg Clark's riding and maybe Stephen Mandel will win, but cannot see them winning anything else.  I suspect the Liberals unless things change will get shut out with Calgary-Mountainview probably flipping to the NDP, maybe UCP if they win a landslide.  Still a little over 7 months to go so a lot can change, but the NDP definitely has a steep hill to climb and the UCP is without question the favourite at this point.
Logged

Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 835
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: November 13, 2018, 03:42:54 pm »

Of note, the two polls had marked disparities in the proportion of voters who are undecided. Abacus has undecideds at 26% of respondents, while Mainstreet has undecideds around the 9-10% mark.

Leading up to 2012 and 2015, undecided rates of 20-30% were pretty common in Alberta polling, so the Abacus number would represent a return to that norm if true. In both 2012 and 2015, undecided voters appeared to reject more extreme positions (principally those coming from Wildrose), flocking heavily to the PCs in 2012 and splitting between the PCs and NDP in 2015. If the UCP are to lose or underperform in the next election, it will be because undecided voters decide to reject them much as they did to the Wildrose in 2012 and 2015.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,319
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: January 17, 2019, 06:07:23 pm »

NDP plans a throne speech on March 18th so late April would be the earliest they could realistically call an election.  Some thought they might go earlier as they want to go when the students are still in school since they are strongest amongst youngest voters while in the winter before snowbirds return as UCP has big lead amongst them.  My guess is voting day will be May 31st which is the latest date possible.  Notley really needs a pipeline to go through to have much chance so they longer they wait the better the chances get.  Also more time to sprinkle election goodies as well as also more time for the UCP to have bozo eruptions and scare away moderate voters.  Still not sure timing will make a huge difference although UCP seems very anxious for an election.
Logged

Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 835
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: January 17, 2019, 11:48:31 pm »

My bet is on an election for April 15 or 16. Throne speech on the 18th of March, drop the writ on the 19th, and away we go.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,319
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2019, 06:04:13 pm »

Mainstreet has their quarterly mega poll and for Alberta they have the following:

UCP 52.3%
NDP 27.8%
Alberta party7.7%
Liberal 6.1%
Green 3%
FCP 2.4%

So on the surface UCP has a pretty big lead meaning unless they screw up badly they are heavily favoured.  Interesting that 14% are voting for centrist parties so will be interesting does that hold or do many vote strategically either NDP or UCP to stop whom they least want to win.  The one good news NDP has is on personal ratings Notley scores above her party and Kenney below so that would suggest it is more likely the gap will narrow than widen.


Notley: 36.9% Approve 49.3% disapprove
Kenney: 39.7% Approve 33.1% disapprove.
Logged

Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,500


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: January 22, 2019, 06:19:07 pm »

The problem I feel facing the NDP here, just from a little searching, is that their ceiling is just below the natural floor for any united conservative front. This is after all a conservative area, and like Kansas in the US, the Left wins when the Right is hopelessly divided. I wouldn't be surprised that we watch the NDP do everything right, the UCP do everything wrong, and the UCP still easily wins thanks to their floor.
Logged

I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps


This is my fair district map. You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.
brucejoel99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,388
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: January 22, 2019, 06:41:10 pm »

I wouldn't be surprised that we watch the NDP do everything right, the UCP do everything wrong, and the UCP still easily wins thanks to their floor.

This.
Logged



"It was once said that the moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped." -- Hubert Humphrey

2020 Endorsements:
President: Joe Biden
FL-23: N/A
Broward Supervisor of Elections: NOT Brenda Snipes
Broward Sheriff: Gregory Tony
Lok
lok1999
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,212
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.64, S: -2.65

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: January 22, 2019, 08:32:59 pm »

In terms of seat count, I've got the UCP in the low 50s right now. yes, for a conservative party in AB, that's a small majority, but they'll be holding onto that for a long time if they get it. The only thing that might save Notley is that Jason Kenny leads the UCP.
Logged

A Liberal LGBT.

JOIN THE DISCORD!!!
https://discord.gg/7kKvzqT
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines