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December 14, 2019, 10:44:55 am
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 58060 times)
CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1575 on: December 13, 2019, 11:03:19 am »

So what are the main agenda items of this newly expanded Conservative majority, that history will remember them for?  

Managed democracy.

And no, unfortunately I'm not even joking.
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El Betico
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« Reply #1576 on: December 13, 2019, 11:44:01 am »

Johnson in White Working Class area....just...wow( I don't want to be unpolitically correct)...
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El Betico
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« Reply #1577 on: December 13, 2019, 11:48:52 am »

Failure for the lib democrats and labour and left to not shoot themselves for a tory to win.
1) Chingford - Tory 23,481 Lab 22219 LD 2744
2) Chipping Barnet - Tory 25745, Lab 24533, LD 5932
3) Cities of London & Westminster - Tory 17049 Lab 13096 11624
4) Wimbledon - Tory 20373 LD 19745 Lab 12543
5) Carshalton & Wallington - Tory 20822 LD 20193 LAB 6081
6) Esher & Walton - Tory 31132 LD 28389 LAB 2838
7) Hendon - Tory 26878 LAB 22648 LD 4628
Cool Finchley - Tory 24162 LD 17600 LAB 13347
9) Kensington - Tory 16768 lab 16618 ld 9312

outside london
1) Cheadle - Tory 25694 LD 23358 LAB 6851
2) Hazel Grove - Tory 21592 LD 17169 LAB 5508
3) Heywood/Middleton - Tory 20453 lab 19790, ld 2073
4) Bury South - Tory 22034 lab 21632 ld 2315
5) Bury North - Tory 21660 lab 21555 ld 1584
6) Leigh - Tory 21266 lab 19301 lab 2252
7) Warrington South - Tory 28187 Lab 26177 ld 5732
Cool Dewsbury - Tory 26179 Lab 24618 ld 2406
9) High Peak - Tory 24844 Lab 24254 ld 2750
10) Keighley - Tory 25298 Lab 23080 ld 2573
11) Blyth Valley - Tory 17440 Lab 16728 LD 2151
12) Durham Northwest - Tory 19990 lab 18846 ld 2831
13) Stoke Central - Tory 14557 Lab 13887 ld 1116
14) Birmingham Northfield - Tory 19957 lab 18317 ld 1961
15) Truro - Tory 27237 Lab 22676 ld 7150
16) Rushcliffe - tory 28745 lab 21122 ld 9600
17) Winchester tory 28430 ld 27445 lab 2723
18) reading west tory 24393 lab 20276 ld 4460
19) bridgend - tory 18193 lab 17036 ld 2368
20) delyn - tory 16756 lab 15891 ld 2346
21) aberconwy - tory 14687 lab 12653 pc 2704 ld 1821
22) ynys mon - tory 12959 lab 10991 pc 10418
23) dumfries - tory 22678 snp 20873 lab 4745
24) dumfriesshire - tory 22611 snp 18830 lab 4172
25) berwickshire tory 25747 snp 20599 ld 4287 lab 2513
26) moray tory 22112 snp 21599 lab 2432 ld 2269
27) aberdeenshire tory 22752 snp 21909 ld 6253 lab 2431

As Jo Swinson says "we've thrown most people under the bus and it's out own fault"














 








In all honesty, at least in some seats you should have reported Brexit Party votes too ..
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El Betico
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« Reply #1578 on: December 13, 2019, 11:53:36 am »

So what are the main agenda items of this newly expanded Conservative majority, that history will remember them for?  

Managed democracy.

And no, unfortunately I'm not even joking.

What does the Workington result mean to you?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1579 on: December 13, 2019, 12:54:57 pm »

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

Watson is no longer in the Commons.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1580 on: December 13, 2019, 01:25:15 pm »

So what are the main agenda items of this newly expanded Conservative majority, that history will remember them for?  

Managed democracy.

And no, unfortunately I'm not even joking.

What does the Workington result mean to you?

Too many people putting "GEEHHDDDBBBRRREEEHHHXXIITTDUUUNNNNNN!!" above their genuine interest. Johnson has read the Trump playbook all too well.
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vileplume
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« Reply #1581 on: December 13, 2019, 02:14:21 pm »

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

I really hope it's Ed Miliband.


Bailey/Rayer (Corbyn Left)
Thornberry/Starmer (Soft Left)
Phillips (Right), won't win

I presume she's only running to boost her media profile further? Phillips would hate being leader anyway (I agree she stands 0% chance of winning) as it would mean she'd lose her slot on all the political panel shows. She really is much more at home being a TV rent-a-gob as opposed to actually having any position of responsibility.

Ah yes a women who ran a refuge for abused women & is one of parliaments leading voices against domestic violence clearly has no desire for any responsibility...

Besides you're thick if you think becoming leader means you lose time on TV.

A lot of being leader is people talking about you not to you. You didn't see Corbyn and Johnson regularly appearing on all the political shows for example. I think most people would agree Phillips rather enjoys her 'backbench media darling' status as she gets to appear on TV all the time and say exactly what she thinks. For this reason I think she'd be deeply unsuited for a cabinet/shadow cabinet role because I can't see her managing to stick to the party line if she personally wasn't sold on it. As a backbencher though she can freely talk about the issues she cares about, and given that she's one of the most well known backbench MPs, people tend to listen to her.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1582 on: December 13, 2019, 02:16:29 pm »

Well, there's nothing I have to say here that probably hasn't been said already. Godspeed to Britain in the next 5 years, and let's hope Labour will get its sh*t together by then.
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JonHawk
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« Reply #1583 on: December 13, 2019, 03:21:12 pm »

Fantastic result for Boris and the Conservatives!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1584 on: December 13, 2019, 06:30:26 pm »

How many think this is a re-alignment election or just a temporary blip and many traditional Labour voters will come back with Brexit done and Corbyn gone (assuming his replacement is actually better)?

Looking at the results and trends, I think some of the red wall seats were already trending Tory since 2010 so they've probably lost them except in strong wins.  This is particularly true in the more rural ones.  I do think however in the suburban and smaller urban ones, Labour with a better leader can win they back, but won't be automatic and also seemed constituencies where they had incumbents they did better than ones without so could be an obstacle.

That being said Labour will need the Tories to screw up really badly to win a majority in 2024.  Their best realistic hope is to try to get a hung parliament then hope they can win backing of other parties.  And with the grip momentum has on the party, they may need to lose another election.

In the long run I think Labour's victory path is going to be very tough without Scotland (up until 2015 they dominated it) and they probably need to sweep the urban areas and suburbs.  Sort of similar model to Trudeau's win in Canada and Democrats in midterms.  Problem is Canadian Liberals and US Democrats are far more akin to Liberal Democrats than Labour so won't be easy.

I do think though the Tories biggest risk is becoming overconfident assuming this is a permanent re-alignment in their favour.  Our Tories in Canada had a similar result in 2011 and they took this position and paid bitterly for it.  But if Johnson understands the reasons he gained those votes and I think he does, I think its quite possible they could hold a lot of them in 2024.
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tack50
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« Reply #1585 on: December 13, 2019, 06:47:00 pm »

Worth noting that in the UK, much like in Spain, the main left party (Labour in this case) doesn't need to win a majority in order to form government while the main right (the Tories) do.

I think we can safely rule out any sort of Tory-SNP collaboration, this is not the 1970s anymore. Same with Tories-Plaid. And after the coalition and Brexit, even Tory-Lib Dem looks iffy though I guess not impossible. Maybe after Brexit it becomes more likely?

In any case for the Tories it is 326 or bust. They can depend on 8 or so DUP seats, Sinn Fein not taking their seats and maybe cooperation with the Lib Dems, but even that means they need to win upwards of 300 seats barring a Lib Dem surge in the future (and the Lib Dems being cooperative of course).

Meanwhile Labour doesn't need to come close anywhere near to a majority (or even to getting more seats than the Tories!) to form government.

They can fairly safely rely on the 45 or so seats of the SNP and another 5 seats or so from SDLP/Plaid/Greens. So that's +50 to whatever Labour gets. And of course the Lib Dem seats are a tossup.

So for a Labour government, whoever is the Labour leader can easily get into 10 Downing Street with only about somewhere around 270 seats, while the Tories would need at least 300 seats or more.

A result like this probably leads to a Labour government for example. Not a particularly stable Labour government but a Labour government nontheless

Con 295
Lab 270
SNP 45
Lib Dem 15
Plaid 3
Green 1
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18 (9 DUP, 6 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 Alliance)

For Labour: 321
For the Tories (generously giving them the Lib Dems, so if they go with Labour you can make the seat difference even larger!): 315
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National Progressive
General Mung Beans
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« Reply #1586 on: December 13, 2019, 07:41:58 pm »

So who will be the LibDems leader now that Swinson has lost her seat?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1587 on: December 13, 2019, 08:20:58 pm »

So who will be the LibDems leader now that Swinson has lost her seat?

Maybe Layla Moran.  Young articulate, female and would fit in idea of having a younger female leader like you see in Finland, Denmark, and New Zealand.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1588 on: December 13, 2019, 08:31:23 pm »

Worth noting that in the UK, much like in Spain, the main left party (Labour in this case) doesn't need to win a majority in order to form government while the main right (the Tories) do.

I think we can safely rule out any sort of Tory-SNP collaboration, this is not the 1970s anymore. Same with Tories-Plaid. And after the coalition and Brexit, even Tory-Lib Dem looks iffy though I guess not impossible. Maybe after Brexit it becomes more likely?

In any case for the Tories it is 326 or bust. They can depend on 8 or so DUP seats, Sinn Fein not taking their seats and maybe cooperation with the Lib Dems, but even that means they need to win upwards of 300 seats barring a Lib Dem surge in the future (and the Lib Dems being cooperative of course).

Meanwhile Labour doesn't need to come close anywhere near to a majority (or even to getting more seats than the Tories!) to form government.

They can fairly safely rely on the 45 or so seats of the SNP and another 5 seats or so from SDLP/Plaid/Greens. So that's +50 to whatever Labour gets. And of course the Lib Dem seats are a tossup.

So for a Labour government, whoever is the Labour leader can easily get into 10 Downing Street with only about somewhere around 270 seats, while the Tories would need at least 300 seats or more.

A result like this probably leads to a Labour government for example. Not a particularly stable Labour government but a Labour government nontheless

Con 295
Lab 270
SNP 45
Lib Dem 15
Plaid 3
Green 1
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18 (9 DUP, 6 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 Alliance)

For Labour: 321
For the Tories (generously giving them the Lib Dems, so if they go with Labour you can make the seat difference even larger!): 315

IDK though Brexit won ~63% of the seats with ~52% of the PV.  Boris Johnson's coalition could be extremely efficient in seats per vote going forward.

I would think the way back for Labour starts with winning almost every 2016 Remain seat in England?   
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Cigarettes & Saints
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« Reply #1589 on: December 13, 2019, 10:48:14 pm »

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Hnv1
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« Reply #1590 on: Today at 06:47:21 am »

So what happened in north down that the Alliance were able to pick it up?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1591 on: Today at 07:08:35 am »

SDLP and Sinn Fein both stood down, leaving only the Alliance for non-unionists and Remainers to vote for.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1592 on: Today at 08:40:24 am »

SDLP and Sinn Fein both stood down, leaving only the Alliance for non-unionists and Remainers to vote for.

The total SF+SDLP vote in North Down was 2.4% in 2017, so that didn't make a difference in the Alliance victory even if every single SF and SDLP voter swallowed their pride and voted for Stephen Farry (but it's doubtful that more than about half actually transferred, with the rest not voting).

The Greens standing aside was a lot more meaningful; they got 6.5% in 2017 and would have transferred much better to the Alliance as the two parties basically fish in the same pool of voters.

But mainly, the Alliance clearly sopped up the vast majority of voters who had supported Sylvia Hermon over the DUP in the past. Hermon's history in the seat, her past anti-DUP positioning as well as implicit endorsement of the Alliance definitely made it easier for the Alliance to claim a position as her spiritual successor. They may not have won it if the same had occurred in 2017 (before the DUP made themselves look even more like fools than usual over Brexit and the continued suspension of Stormont), but by 2019 the DUP was clearly suffering across Northern Ireland, so the Alliance had an opening. And North Down is a relatively wealthy, liberal place, to the extent such things exist in Northern Ireland--it's possibly the most pro-same-sex marriage constituency in NI, for example (though Belfast South might be more so)--so a natural place for strength for the Alliance that had merely been suppressed by the presence of Sylvia Hermon.
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Intell
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« Reply #1593 on: Today at 10:23:54 am »

SDLP and Sinn Fein both stood down, leaving only the Alliance for non-unionists and Remainers to vote for.

The total SF+SDLP vote in North Down was 2.4% in 2017, so that didn't make a difference in the Alliance victory even if every single SF and SDLP voter swallowed their pride and voted for Stephen Farry (but it's doubtful that more than about half actually transferred, with the rest not voting).

The Greens standing aside was a lot more meaningful; they got 6.5% in 2017 and would have transferred much better to the Alliance as the two parties basically fish in the same pool of voters.

But mainly, the Alliance clearly sopped up the vast majority of voters who had supported Sylvia Hermon over the DUP in the past. Hermon's history in the seat, her past anti-DUP positioning as well as implicit endorsement of the Alliance definitely made it easier for the Alliance to claim a position as her spiritual successor. They may not have won it if the same had occurred in 2017 (before the DUP made themselves look even more like fools than usual over Brexit and the continued suspension of Stormont), but by 2019 the DUP was clearly suffering across Northern Ireland, so the Alliance had an opening. And North Down is a relatively wealthy, liberal place, to the extent such things exist in Northern Ireland--it's possibly the most pro-same-sex marriage constituency in NI, for example (though Belfast South might be more so)--so a natural place for strength for the Alliance that had merely been suppressed by the presence of Sylvia Hermon.

North Down is not uniformly wealthy or liberal at all. It was only 52.5% remain but yes I agree with your comment. It needs to be added that Sylvia Hermon in 2010 and 2015, won the constituencies working class areas (more so than middle class areas in 2010, while in 2017 in these unionist working class areas the DUP had massive swings, while Hermon remained more steady in the more middle class areas, and these were the areas that swung heavily to the alliance.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1594 on: Today at 10:28:44 am »

Note that Unionists have had a sustained campaign to transfer loyalist communities to North Down to radicalise it a wee bit...anyway Lady Sylvia Hermon was popular with the wealthy Unionist people that hate the DUP for a variety of reasons now. The kind of demographic that plays and watches Rugby in Ulster.
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