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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: N-VA left govt over Marrakesh  (Read 19192 times)
coloniac
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« Reply #100 on: January 09, 2018, 06:32:09 am »

Michel dumped into further excrement by his coalition partner. De Wever, who said that if the majority wanted Theo Francken gone the N-VA would withdraw from said majority. CD&V are the most vocal government opponent with regards to Francken staying on, with Hermann Van Rompuy's brother calling Michel a "puppet" (a slur usually only used by Michel's francophone opponents). Their president Wouter Beke was quick to put the flames out, but the damage is done.

This explicit threat seems to point towards the N-VA wanting to collapse the government early. After all, if they focus the theme of the election on immigration it should be an easy win for them, and they would be able to combine this with the locals too. They already know that regionalist aspirations are dying (see : Catalonia) and the corruption scandals in Antwerp are handily shelved too.

For Michel it’s a massive blow as it confirms the theories his opposite numbers in Francophone Belgium have been saying from the start of the Swedish Coalition. And now he is in the media forced to defend the N-VA's program rather than his own. But the Flemish nationalists may have missed a trick here : MR are the only ally they have on the other side of the linguistic divide. Weakening them may "block" the state, but history shows that if you are Machiavellian enough to deliberately block Belgian institutions it can backfire (just ask Alex De Croo, or Joelle Milquet). N-VA though have a much bigger "siege mentality" and the personality cult around Theo Francken and De Wever is strong.

Meanwhile, let's remember that the origin of all this is human beings being delivered to torture tables...something that goes completely over the head of the same electorate that once had Vlaams Belang as their 2nd party I guess.

I'll be adding a profile of the electorates in 2014 to my previous party profiles, based on a "stemgedrag" I found in the KU Leuven and UC Louvain, followed by the state of parties going into 2018 election year and with what demographics they can realistically make progress electorally.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2018, 11:40:55 am by coloniac »Logged
coloniac
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« Reply #101 on: January 17, 2018, 07:43:05 am »

The Samen cartel in Antwerp has split following a corruption case against sp.a's leading figure on the list, the same guy who was on texting terms with the construction company lobbyist who worked for De Wever. One happy family up there.

One of the more ridiculous decisions I have ever seen from Groen was the creation of that cartel. I make it a point that if the Greens in any country, let alone Belgium, want votes they should disassociate themselves from any so-called social-democratic party until after an election.

Still a long way to go but the nationalists and De Wever look safe in Antwerp for now. 
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« Reply #102 on: January 19, 2018, 02:08:19 pm »

The Samen cartel in Antwerp has split following a corruption case against sp.a's leading figure on the list, the same guy who was on texting terms with the construction company lobbyist who worked for De Wever. One happy family up there.

One of the more ridiculous decisions I have ever seen from Groen was the creation of that cartel. I make it a point that if the Greens in any country, let alone Belgium, want votes they should disassociate themselves from any so-called social-democratic party until after an election.

Still a long way to go but the nationalists and De Wever look safe in Antwerp for now. 
I regret to inform you that Paul Magnette has chosen to open his mouth on this topic.

http://www.lesoir.be/134719/article/2018-01-18/paul-magnette-les-wallons-sont-de-petits-arnaqueurs-en-comparaison-avec-la
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coloniac
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« Reply #103 on: January 20, 2018, 08:43:39 am »

The Samen cartel in Antwerp has split following a corruption case against sp.a's leading figure on the list, the same guy who was on texting terms with the construction company lobbyist who worked for De Wever. One happy family up there.

One of the more ridiculous decisions I have ever seen from Groen was the creation of that cartel. I make it a point that if the Greens in any country, let alone Belgium, want votes they should disassociate themselves from any so-called social-democratic party until after an election.

Still a long way to go but the nationalists and De Wever look safe in Antwerp for now.  
I regret to inform you that Paul Magnette has chosen to open his mouth on this topic.

http://www.lesoir.be/134719/article/2018-01-18/paul-magnette-les-wallons-sont-de-petits-arnaqueurs-en-comparaison-avec-la

The return to communitarian politics after being the so called defenders of Belgian integrity during the political crisis is really the most worrying thing about this behemoth of an excuse of a "social democratic, internationalist" party. But then what to expect from a party that had Happart, Van Cau, Moureaux and other regionalists. I did expect better of Magnette though.

Anyway, some funny developments in Mons/Bergen, an old provincial city in Hainaut nearby the NATO SHAPE headquarters, and deeply divided. Here, former PM Elio Di Rupo has had a fairly strong power base for 20 years now. Its at the heart of the coal mining Borinage region. But Mons itself has been slowly trending towards the right over local issues, including the new train station, seen as a vanity project. Di Rupo formed a coalition with MR, but found the latter's rising Reyndersien star there Georges-Louis Bouchez to be too disruptive and kicked MR out of the majority, taking cdH instead.

Fast forward to this week and now cdH's own rising student star in Mons, Opaline Meunier. announced that she would present herself on Georges-Louis Bouchez's list Mons en Mieux without changing party affiliation. This is despite a vote by the local cdH branch to forbid any association with the list until after the election. Lutgen, the party president, who is seen more and more as powerless due to how the Brussels cdH did not follow his lead, has kept just as quiet about this, despite calls to kick her out.

This fight is an interesting one because it will be generational as much as left-right. Mons is a changing city, its modernising itself, getting more students and it has quite a clear geographical split between the "new" city and the "old", with one.
What's more a loss for the PS here, seemingly unthinkable a few years ago, would spell the end of Di Rupo and his faction's chances in the nation-wide PS altogether. Their vote share also largely depends on how ECOLO do with left-wing students and more progressive left-wing voters.



In Liege-city, ECOLO, Demain, another citizen's movement and the Pirate Party have decided to present a single list called "Vert Ardent" (Liege is commonly known as "Cité Ardente"). Remains to be seen whether they can get a strong head of list to compete with PTB's Hedebouw.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2018, 11:49:07 am by coloniac »Logged
coloniac
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« Reply #104 on: March 10, 2018, 06:03:29 am »

Bumpity-bump with some really insignificant polls given the margins of error. 

Wallonia :





PS back on the rise but here is the margin of error



Flanders






Brussels





 
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DavidB.
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« Reply #105 on: September 06, 2018, 03:01:51 pm »

Quite the scandal in Belgium at the moment: the identitarian Flemish nationalist youth movement Schild en Vrienden, which received quite some press over the course of the last months with as high point a meeting between their leader Dries Van Langenhove and Viktor Orbán, was the subject of a documentary by the Belgian public broadcaster. S&V tended to present themselves as a highly respectable "metapolitical" movement aimed at strengthening the Flemish youth and instilling them with conservative family values. However, the Belgian public broadcaster had been given access to their secret Discord server, in which highly racist, antisemitic, violent and pro-Nazi messages and memes were shared, alongside the intention to make a "long march through the institutions". A number of members had high-ranking positions on certain boards, and others were local candidates for the N-VA in the upcoming election in October. All political parties have distanced themselves from S&V, the N-VA have sacked almost all candidates who were S&V members, and leader Van Langenhove was expelled from Ghent University.
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He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
coloniac
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« Reply #106 on: September 06, 2018, 06:16:11 pm »

There was a report on their militant actions some months ago, plus their violence in Ghent. And a very strange case particularly related to an ultra-Catholic school in the Brussels periphery. That this blows up now is surprising to me. This was always an open secret. And at the same time S&V are a laughing stock compared to the old 80s Flemish nationalist youth movements, that were bona fide Nazi cultists from very deprived backgrounds, very present in football hooliganism and shooting ranges. In contrast S&V are boy scouts with a bit of edge.

Still, people who are part of the old Volksunie guard knew S&V were a scandal waiting to happen within the N-VA. Given that S&V acted as Theo Franckens personal security at his events, my tinfoiled laden conspiracy is that the leading figures in the party, including perhaps De Wever, Saw that Franckens approval ratings transcended the party. They then wanted a bigger "dossier" to leak to the VRT, in order to get out what is undoubtedly one of the traditional Volksunie nationalists biggest pet peeve in their own movement: the revisionist far right. Francken's political capital is definitely harmed by this. I can't see the N-VA's electoral score changing as much though.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #107 on: September 07, 2018, 04:59:36 pm »

When will Belgium split? This country never made any sense to me. The best would be to partition it between the Netherlands and France.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #108 on: September 07, 2018, 05:27:19 pm »

When will Belgium split? This country never made any sense to me. The best would be to partition it between the Netherlands and France.
See, this is why people don't like the French...
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King Francis I
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« Reply #109 on: September 07, 2018, 07:31:52 pm »

When will Belgium split? This country never made any sense to me. The best would be to partition it between the Netherlands and France.
See, this is why people don't like the French...
Which controversial thing did I say?
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Heat
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« Reply #110 on: September 07, 2018, 07:43:28 pm »

When will Belgium split? This country never made any sense to me. The best would be to partition it between the Netherlands and France.
See, this is why people don't like the French...
Which controversial thing did I say?
It's not controversial at all, that's the point. At this point you are simply boring.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #111 on: September 07, 2018, 07:45:11 pm »

When will Belgium split? This country never made any sense to me. The best would be to partition it between the Netherlands and France.
See, this is why people don't like the French...
Which controversial thing did I say?
It's not controversial at all, that's the point. At this point you are simply boring.
Well, fortunately I'm not posting here to please particular posters. So if you find me boring I invite you to either put me on ignore or to kindly **** off
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Heat
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« Reply #112 on: September 07, 2018, 08:01:19 pm »

When will Belgium split? This country never made any sense to me. The best would be to partition it between the Netherlands and France.
See, this is why people don't like the French...
Which controversial thing did I say?
It's not controversial at all, that's the point. At this point you are simply boring.
Well, fortunately I'm not posting here to please particular posters. So if you find me boring I invite you to either put me on ignore or to kindly **** off
Si seulement tu étais capable de plaire à quoi qui que ce soit. Je suis vraiment désolé que tu n'as pas eu assez d'attention de la part de tes parents, et je vais suivre ton conseil. Smiley
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Wasn't it gonna be fun and wasn't it gonna be new?
Wasn't it gonna be different and wasn't it gonna be true?
Didn't you say that? Didn't you say that?
King Francis I
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« Reply #113 on: September 07, 2018, 08:09:57 pm »

When will Belgium split? This country never made any sense to me. The best would be to partition it between the Netherlands and France.
See, this is why people don't like the French...
Which controversial thing did I say?
It's not controversial at all, that's the point. At this point you are simply boring.
Well, fortunately I'm not posting here to please particular posters. So if you find me boring I invite you to either put me on ignore or to kindly **** off
Si seulement tu étais capable de plaire à quoi qui que ce soit. Je suis vraiment désolé que tu n'as pas eu assez d'attention de la part de tes parents, et je vais suivre ton conseil. Smiley
Honestly I find this personal attack quite petty but that obviously doesn't affect me.
Just a remark, "quoi qui ce soit" is inaccurate, "qui que ce soit" is the appropriate version.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #114 on: September 08, 2018, 05:43:07 am »

Well, um, I was going to make a tongue in cheek point about how the French think that they basically own the whole of la francophonie but, uh..

Anyway, the principle point is that most Belgiums actually feel Belgian, and afaik there is actually a tendency towards accepting more refederalisation by the Flemmish at the moment; where even segments of CD&V are starting to be open to the idea
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King Francis I
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« Reply #115 on: September 08, 2018, 05:53:06 am »

Well, um, I was going to make a tongue in cheek point about how the French think that they basically own the whole of la francophonie but, uh..

Anyway, the principle point is that most Belgiums actually feel Belgian, and afaik there is actually a tendency towards accepting more refederalisation by the Flemmish at the moment; where even segments of CD&V are starting to be open to the idea
Belgium's creation history isn't based on nationalism but based on the English wanting to keep Antverp out of French control. It's 2 completely different areas, one composed by francophones who gives often high scores for socialists and farleftists parties, and the other by dutch speaking who vote in high margins for conservative parties.
The existence of Belgium is literally similar to the previous country of Tchekoslovaquia. I believe the best is to simply split up this realm into 2 areas with both of them choosing to either join France/Netherlands or remaining independent.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #116 on: September 08, 2018, 06:42:36 am »

Plenty of countries are artificial creations made to suit elites; which is part of the reason why nationalism is a scourge - but it doesn't mean Belgium is less of a real country than any other
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King Francis I
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« Reply #117 on: September 08, 2018, 08:26:08 am »

Plenty of countries are artificial creations made to suit elites; which is part of the reason why nationalism is a scourge - but it doesn't mean Belgium is less of a real country than any other
It is less of a real country than others like France, Sweden, Denmark, Finland.

But yes, other countries' borders should have their borders fixed like Iraq for example.
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coloniac
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« Reply #118 on: September 08, 2018, 10:11:08 am »

Yeah, got to agree with Heat there. its not offensive at all, just boring debate at this point. Even a Flamingant rolls their eyes at that overused fantasy/joke.
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coloniac
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« Reply #119 on: September 13, 2018, 05:55:35 am »

Stunning start to the local election campaigns across the board. In the fall out of the VRT documentary over their very own Sturmabteilung several N-VA candidates already taken off lists for racial slurs (one in Brussels-city for complaining about ''negro music'' outside his house) in order to clean the image of the party.

The best drama though is in Bastogne where Benoit Lutgen's absolute majority is under threat by...his brother, successful businessman Jean-Pierre Lutgen, who has managed to unite all the other major parties for a common list against the under pressure cdH president. Another great detail, Belgian local electoral law means they can't even sit in the same communal council should they both receive enough votes, meaning a winner takes all scenario. And now there are accusations of criminal records, and Défi having to review their strict policy of not supporting any candidate with one.

This could be the biggest political casualty of the election.
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« Reply #120 on: September 17, 2018, 11:41:15 pm »

In a month, we have elections: mayoral and provincal elections... Next year in spring, we have European, regional and federal elections, so lots of elections upcoming in Belgium (almost all of them in the next 9 months, looking forward to it).

I expect in general N-VA (nationalists) will keep their lead (and grow in local elections). CD&V will lose in local elections, and possibly a bit in the elections next year as well. The social democrats will lose heavily both in local elections and elections next year... The Greens will do well. The PVDA-PTB will also gain ground in both elections. The far-right / populist party (Vlaams Belang) will also gain votes. Liberal party will be status-quo (possibly making slight gains in local elections, and losing slightly in federal elections next year).

In french-speaking Belgium, the far-left and greens will win votes. Far-right / populist (but not sure what political party exactly) and Défi will also win votes. French-speaking liberals will be status-quo. French-speaking social democrats will lose bigly. French-speaking christian democrats will also lose heavily.
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« Reply #121 on: September 17, 2018, 11:53:04 pm »

Why is the Worker's Party doing so well in Wallonia as they seem way out on the left.  I am not an expert on Belgian politics, but would it be fair to say Flanders leans right and Wallonia leans left as it seems the left tends to win big there and right big in Flanders.  Mind you the Christian Democrats seem fairly centrist so not sure if you would call the CDH or CD&V as right wing parties and likewise Open VLD and Reformist Movement are labeled centre-right, but they same like Belgium's version of the Democrats of the US, Liberal Party of Canada, or Liberal Democrats of UK in terms of where they stand on the political spectrum as opposed to a more market liberal party like the VVD in the Netherlands.  Otherwise correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is they are more like the D66 than VVD.  Also with the Worker's Party doing well any particular reason or is like France with Melenchon and UK with Corbyn you have a lot of dissatisfied younger voters who are attracted to hard left policies without fully understanding them.  Anyone know?

I'm a Worker's Party voter myself and active in the local party organization (so i might be biased), but there are a few reasons... Many people are disappointed by what social democrat parties have done. They've been involved in a lot of corruption scandals, while lots of social democrats also aren't really socialist anymore, leaving space on their left flank to be exploited. In Flanders mostly by exploited by the Greens and in Wallonie where there is much more space, the PVDA-PTB.

Wallonia is left-leaning, is quite socialist, because it's a poor region compared to the much richer Flanders, and there is increasing polarization between people in Flanders mostly voting right-wing and people in Wallonia voting left-wing, resulting in people who don't want to vote for both the right-wing (which is seen as favouring Flanders, supporting the current government, which has high approval ratings there, because only the right-wing french-speaking liberal party participates in it) and for social democrats (which were involved in a lot of corruption scandals and are being seen as greedy for power). The Worker's Party however did really some good opposition work which could be credited for removing the (asocial) Turteltaks. And is also opposed to raising the retirement age. Many french-speaking belgians also don't see an alternative and vote Worker's Party as a protest vote, because they've lost trust in the social democratic party, and won't vote. PVDA also has some strong politicians which are popular in french-speaking Belgium. Especially the region of Liege seems to have shifted a lot to the Worker's Party (Seraing, Herstal, Liege and to a lesser extent cities like Verviers).

- The Christian Democratic Party is also seen as greedy for power, as flip-flopping on the issues too much, and as possibly participating in the next right-wing government.
- Défi has gain votes as well, which could be seen as a more french-speaking regionalist party, which  represents the french-speaking population better and is liberal. (they've gained a lot of support, esp. in regions like Brussels as well).
- French-speaking Greens are another alternative and have won some votes as well.
- Pollings might underestimate or trouble estimating the chances of populist parties in french-speaking Belgium, but they might win some votes as well.

-> CD&V is on social issues centre-right and on economic issues centre-left
-> Open VLD is on social issues centre-left and on economic issues centre-right, and imo even have shifted to right-wing.
Both parties would mostly be Democratic yes. Even some voters of N-VA (Nationalist) would probably vote Democratic in the USA. The N-VA didn't want to endorse both Clinton or Trump in the elections. All other parties endorsed Clinton, except for the far-right which supported Trump, and the far-left supported Sanders, and opposed both Clinton and Trump.

Open VLD is a combination of D66 and VVD but imo leaning towards VVD. Lots of people who would vote for D66 in the Netherlands would vote Green i believe.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2018, 12:00:06 am by Lakigigar »Logged
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« Reply #122 on: September 18, 2018, 12:02:13 am »

Plenty of countries are artificial creations made to suit elites; which is part of the reason why nationalism is a scourge - but it doesn't mean Belgium is less of a real country than any other
It is less of a real country than others like France, Sweden, Denmark, Finland.

But yes, other countries' borders should have their borders fixed like Iraq for example.

I disagree... I believe only 10% is supportive of Flemish independence. More support status-quo or confederalism though. Most people though feel Belgian, and not Flemish in the first place. The performance of our national football team on the world cup football increased our national unity as well. As long, we have a good national football team, independence isn't going to be an issue, and most people have seen that radical political stances aren't always good, as we've seen with Trump and Brexit, so i think that many undecided people or insecure people would eventually not vote for Flemish independence.
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coloniac
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« Reply #123 on: September 18, 2018, 08:49:44 am »

Welcome to the forum, Lakigigar! Thank you for the posts.
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« Reply #124 on: September 19, 2018, 10:18:31 am »

Some new pollings in northeastern Dutch-speaking province of Limburg for the mayoral elections.

Hasselt (13th largest city of Belgium, largest of Limburg)



N-VA (Nationalist) - 28,8% (+3,3%)
Red-Green (socialist / green cartel) - 24,3% (-8,7%)
CD&V (christian democratic) - 21,6% (-1,1%)
Flemish interest (far-right / nationalist) - 8,2% (+2,4%)
Open VLD (right-wing liberal) - 7,8% (-2,1%)
PVDA (far-left) - 6,8% (NEW)
Others - 1,3%
15% undecided
Leefbaar Hasselt has suspended their campaign meanwhile.

Genk (18th largest city of Belgium, 2nd largest of Limburg)



CD&V (christian democratic) - 29,2% (-11,8%)
N-VA (nationalist) - 25,5% (+7,3%)
ProGenk (socialist) - 13,1% (cartel with greens had 16,77% in 2012)
Flemish Interest (far-right / nationalist) - 10% (+0,7%)
PVDA (far-left) - 8,4% (-0,4%)
Greens - 7,5% (cartel with socialists had 16,77% in 2012)
Open Genk (right-wing liberals) - 4% (-0,4%)
A local list - 2,4% (+0,9%)
15% undecided
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