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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 44259 times)
Zinneke
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« Reply #150 on: October 13, 2018, 04:45:58 am »

Results will be released at 15.00h tomorrow. If David or a mod can edit the title to indicate this is happening that'd be cool.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #151 on: October 13, 2018, 04:53:13 am »

Results will be released at 15.00h tomorrow. If David or a mod can edit the title to indicate this is happening that'd be cool.
Done.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #152 on: October 13, 2018, 06:59:56 am »
« Edited: October 13, 2018, 08:38:27 am by coloniac »

Results will be released at 15.00h tomorrow. If David or a mod can edit the title to indicate this is happening that'd be cool.
Done.
Thanks a lot.

Another article you and french-speakers might find interesting from BePolitix with a nice run down of how the parties in WalloBrux are shaping up heading into tomorrow. Its very different case to Flanders though because only something like 40% of the communes in Wallonia have the same party configuration as the federal level, compared to 80% in Flanders.

https://absp.be/Blog/2018/10/08/les-elections-communales-en-wallonie-et-a-bruxelles-au-prisme-de-la-fragmentation/

Happy to translate for others if there is interest, but I imagine it should be fine with a translation app.

For me the key things to look out for in the context of next year's federals:

1/ How PS does in Liege and suburbs vs ECOLO and particularly PTB.
2/ How Défi splits the MR vote in major Walloon cities
3/ Whether Lutgen can survive his mayorship and a potential slide in the provincial elections (Luxemburg provincial results and his own personal battle with his brother)
4/ the final breakthrough of the far right, although given something like 6 far right parties are running in Charleroi alone, it seems unlikely they will ever unite. PP have aggressively campaign and even allied with Steve Bannon of all people to try to get funds and legitimacy.

I guess the most publicised/battles are still Mons/Bergen, Bastogne for the Lutgen face off, and Namur which is always a close battle between the traditional parties and now has the added surge of Défi. Schaerbeek should provide drama as it always does every 6 years in Brussels.

Otherwise it has been a relatively low key election compared to the last.
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Laki
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« Reply #153 on: October 13, 2018, 11:56:52 am »
« Edited: October 13, 2018, 12:01:42 pm by Lakigigar »

I'll probably be present here as well. Coloniac, i assume you're from Brussels or the Southern Part of Belgium. My coverage from these regions is less clear because i'm from Flanders, and the Flemish television only discuss results from the northern part of Belgium and possibly Brussels (not sure about that), and occassionaly we will get a result of the southern parts of Belgium. I think it works like this. it's been a long time ago we've had elections and i almost forget. I'm more used to watching CNN, BBC (for british and american election coverage: 2016 election, British elections of 2015 and 2017 and Brexit and indyref vote) and dutch political tv-shows. I've watched (parts of) the political shows of 2006, 2007, 2010, 2012 and possibly 2014, but not sure about that. I've probably followed coverage of 2014 elections way less than the coverage of British and American elections.

What i will look out for:

1) i'm curious to how PTB/PVDA will perform in Zelzate, Ghent, Kortrijk, my home city, Antwerp, Genk, Leuven, Sint-Niklaas, Mechelen, Turnhout, Bruges, Ostend, Hasselt, Brussels (and agglomeration), Liège and agglomeration, Charleroi, Verviers, Namur, Mouscron and Tournai.
2) Will the far-right have their first mayor ever in Belgium (look to what happens in Ninove)
3) What will happen in Antwerp (the key battleground). Political deadlock. Nationalist win or Green win? Most likely a political deadlock.
4) What will happen in Ghent. How will the recent leaked coverage of the poor state of social houses in Ghent influences the election. How will the nationalists and liberals perform and how much are socialists / greens going to lose.
5) Will the PVDA take power in Zelzate and/or Seraing?
6) How well will the Greens perform?
7) How much are the traditional parties going to lose everywhere (especially CD&V and s.pa)?
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Umengus
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« Reply #154 on: October 13, 2018, 12:34:14 pm »

Results will be released at 15.00h tomorrow. If David or a mod can edit the title to indicate this is happening that'd be cool.
Done.
Thanks a lot.

Another article you and french-speakers might find interesting from BePolitix with a nice run down of how the parties in WalloBrux are shaping up heading into tomorrow. Its very different case to Flanders though because only something like 40% of the communes in Wallonia have the same party configuration as the federal level, compared to 80% in Flanders.

https://absp.be/Blog/2018/10/08/les-elections-communales-en-wallonie-et-a-bruxelles-au-prisme-de-la-fragmentation/

Happy to translate for others if there is interest, but I imagine it should be fine with a translation app.

For me the key things to look out for in the context of next year's federals:

1/ How PS does in Liege and suburbs vs ECOLO and particularly PTB.
2/ How Défi splits the MR vote in major Walloon cities
3/ Whether Lutgen can survive his mayorship and a potential slide in the provincial elections (Luxemburg provincial results and his own personal battle with his brother)
4/ the final breakthrough of the far right, although given something like 6 far right parties are running in Charleroi alone, it seems unlikely they will ever unite. PP have aggressively campaign and even allied with Steve Bannon of all people to try to get funds and legitimacy.

I guess the most publicised/battles are still Mons/Bergen, Bastogne for the Lutgen face off, and Namur which is always a close battle between the traditional parties and now has the added surge of Défi. Schaerbeek should provide drama as it always does every 6 years in Brussels.

Otherwise it has been a relatively low key election compared to the last.

Brussel city will be interessant to observe: PS should lose lots of votes (30 to... 15 % ?) ans a poll some months ago gave Ecolo first with 20 %. PS has had lots of money scandal so the fall is quite possible.

Concerning the PP, it's now or never. The party has the best environment to have success: MR in power, migration, (a little) better media coverage... Last poll has PP at 7 % at the regional level so I wait big results in Verviers, Liege, Charleroi, Dison, Mouscron, Frameries and so on.
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Laki
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« Reply #155 on: October 14, 2018, 03:18:05 am »

PTB will probably do well in those cities. I believe PP will do slightly better in Hainaut, but PTB will probably do very well in the Liege suburbs and Verviers.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #156 on: October 14, 2018, 06:24:50 am »

Another article you and french-speakers might find interesting from BePolitix with a nice run down of how the parties in WalloBrux are shaping up heading into tomorrow. Its very different case to Flanders though because only something like 40% of the communes in Wallonia have the same party configuration as the federal level, compared to 80% in Flanders.

https://absp.be/Blog/2018/10/08/les-elections-communales-en-wallonie-et-a-bruxelles-au-prisme-de-la-fragmentation/

Cool, so why the PTB more around Liège than Charleroi? Just traditional implantation?

Also, Antwerp seems surprisingly left wing considering its, you know, reputation. Does anyone actually vote PVDA outside of Borgehout?
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Laki
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« Reply #157 on: October 14, 2018, 06:32:44 am »

Another article you and french-speakers might find interesting from BePolitix with a nice run down of how the parties in WalloBrux are shaping up heading into tomorrow. Its very different case to Flanders though because only something like 40% of the communes in Wallonia have the same party configuration as the federal level, compared to 80% in Flanders.

https://absp.be/Blog/2018/10/08/les-elections-communales-en-wallonie-et-a-bruxelles-au-prisme-de-la-fragmentation/

Cool, so why the PTB more around Liège than Charleroi? Just traditional implantation?

Also, Antwerp seems surprisingly left wing considering its, you know, reputation. Does anyone actually vote PVDA outside of Borgehout?

I've voted PVDA, but also outside of Antwerp. Antwerp has both a strong right-and a strong left-wing, but it seems to be a trend that more people are shifting away from the centre.

PTB national spokesman (and charismatic person) Raoul Hedebouw comes from Liège. Liège has very industrial suburbs and quite a poor population (Herstal, Seraing), and the famous communist chairman of the 1950's Julien Lahaut also comes from the Liège suburbs. He was murdered back than by royalists, but in his city (Seraing) PTB wll likely achieve it's best result.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #158 on: October 14, 2018, 06:52:00 am »
« Edited: October 14, 2018, 06:58:37 am by DavidB. »

Live stream VRT here - in Dutch and focused on Flanders. Will there be any exit polls?
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Laki
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« Reply #159 on: October 14, 2018, 07:48:22 am »

Live stream VRT here - in Dutch and focused on Flanders. Will there be any exit polls?

Don't think that's tradition here. I've never heard about exit polls and was surprised other countries had that, but exit polls aren't always reliable (as we've seen in the USA).

First results are coming in (but not fully counted):
one coastal city where the liberals lose.
a different town where the socialists lose, while the right-wing wins.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/#/11/1/31004/kaart

the map
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DavidB.
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« Reply #160 on: October 14, 2018, 08:02:14 am »

Typical Belgian problems right now: too many chocolate stores in Bruges, with a renowned chocolatier complaining about the increased competition and non-Belgian chocolate being sold. The liberals, of all parties, now wish to limit the number of chocolate and beer stores targeting tourists.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #161 on: October 14, 2018, 08:10:11 am »
« Edited: October 14, 2018, 08:13:29 am by coloniac »

Official results here


https://elections2018.wallonie.be/
https://www.vlaanderenkiest.be/verkiezingen2018/index.html#/

Also, typical Brussels surrealism, electronic voting booths are still dysfunctional :

http://www.lalibre.be/dernieres-depeches/belga/trente-bureaux-de-vote-toujours-touches-par-un-probleme-technique-a-bruxelles-5bc30104cd708c805c33ce9b#.W8ME1KY1t4U
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #162 on: October 14, 2018, 08:15:06 am »

Typical Belgian problems right now: too many chocolate stores in Bruges, with a renowned chocolatier complaining about the increased competition and non-Belgian chocolate being sold. The liberals, of all parties, now wish to limit the number of chocolate and beer stores targeting tourists.
Hahahaha
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DavidB.
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« Reply #163 on: October 14, 2018, 08:21:40 am »

First trends: nationalists seems to not do well. Liberals also lose a bit. Christian democrats & far-right win votes. On the left, not a clear trend yet (maybe we need to wait for more cities to come in).
With nationalists I assume you mean just the N-VA? Because the combined score of N-VA and VB seems to be increasing slightly.
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Laki
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« Reply #164 on: October 14, 2018, 08:34:14 am »

First trends: nationalists seems to not do well. Liberals also lose a bit. Christian democrats & far-right win votes. On the left, not a clear trend yet (maybe we need to wait for more cities to come in).
With nationalists I assume you mean just the N-VA? Because the combined score of N-VA and VB seems to be increasing slightly.

Yes, i meant just N-VA, but i've deleted my post because it's hard to notice first trends... I posted it a bit too early. I've seen now towns and cities where liberals won a lot, and where CD&V lost a lot (despite winning in other towns).

VB usually win votes (but just slightly so far).
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Umengus
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« Reply #165 on: October 14, 2018, 08:50:28 am »

Zelzate (6/9)

SPA 30 (+11)
VLD 26 (-2)
PVDA 20 (-2)
VB 7 (+1)


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Umengus
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« Reply #166 on: October 14, 2018, 09:19:17 am »

Genk (50%)

CDV (pro-erdogan): 36 (-4)
NVA (kurd): 30
SPA 11 (-5)
VB 10 (=)
PVDA 5 (-4)
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DavidB.
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« Reply #167 on: October 14, 2018, 09:20:26 am »

Genk (50%)

CDV (pro-erdogan): 36 (-4)
NVA (kurd): 30
What?
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Laki
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« Reply #168 on: October 14, 2018, 09:28:19 am »

Disappointing results in Flanders so far, but there is no clear trend. In Ghent and the Antwerp suburbs, the PVDA fortunately does well, but in most other cities, they don't do well...

Very good day for VB. Slight losses for N-VA (but gains somewhere else). Liberals seems to do well mostly now. Socialists seem to decrease less than expected, while i had expected the Greens to do a bit better.

I don't know about the results in Brussels and French-speaking Belgium.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #169 on: October 14, 2018, 09:51:12 am »
« Edited: October 14, 2018, 10:00:57 am by coloniac »

N-VA set to overtake sp.a as the largest party in Hasselt, but fail to replicate this in Leuven.

Also looking increasingly likely VB will get their first mayor in Ninove.

CD&V stay largest in Bruges, Beveren and are generally holding up quite well. Could be a good night for them.

Provincially though (which btw is another useless layer of democracy other than a midterm bellweather)  N-VA are still dominating, so it appears to just be a case of running out of ideas and implantation locally. They gambled hard over the summer on immigration and were outflanked by VB on the issue, who are better implanted locally. As long as they hold Antwerp-city though they will not be too worried.

Too early for francophone Belgium to tell any major results. Rumours have it Mons en mieux led by MR's slightly "hard right" figure George-Louis Bouchez could be overtaken by ECOLO which would be an embarrassing end to an embarrassing political figure.


Umengus is of course exaggerating, but Zuhal Demir, the N-VA's minister on equal opportunities and list leader in Genk, is Kurdish origin and likes to childishly dog whistle on certain parts of the Turkish community on their level of integration, etc while using her own background every single debate. So Erdogan-s AKP actually instructed Turks in Genk to vote against her by voting for CD&V (it's not the first time they have done this, the media also called her a PKK terrorist). The mayor obviously wasn't going to refuse ethnic votes but that doesn't make him an Erdogan sycophant either.  

THe reason Demir will have failed in Genk will have almost certainly have to do with her being parachuted in from Antwerp and saying "yo, I'm a Genkie again" when everybody knows she has federal ambitions.
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Umengus
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« Reply #170 on: October 14, 2018, 09:56:23 am »

Oostende (68/71)

SPA: 20 (-9)
NVA 19 (-7)
VLD 16 (+3)
VB 16 (+7)
Groen 15 (+5)
CDV 8 (-1)


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Zinneke
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« Reply #171 on: October 14, 2018, 10:05:36 am »

Looks like PS will not be harmed too much in Liege-City. Very poor result for PTB not even getting to 10%.

Mons and Charleroi will also stay in PS hands...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #172 on: October 14, 2018, 10:11:21 am »

Thanks for your explanation on Genk.

What's going on in Voeren? How can Défi run for provincial council there (I assume it's part of Limburg?)
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Zinneke
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« Reply #173 on: October 14, 2018, 10:17:57 am »
« Edited: October 14, 2018, 10:21:42 am by coloniac »

Thanks for your explanation on Genk.

What's going on in Voeren? How can Défi run for provincial council there (I assume it's part of Limburg?)

Its a Linguistic Facilities Zone because of the linguistic heterogenity there. Défi are running as part of the "RAL" list that used to stand for "Retour A Liege(-Province)" and was led by José Happart, a PS guy known as a "Wallingant" in Flanders and is a fierce Liegeois provincialist. Défi clearly own the francophone rights issue though so it makes sense that they were drafted in this list at a local level, rather than running against both RAL and the Dutch-speaking list.  

Défi are also running a list on their own at provincial level in Limburg. Its part of their tradition of defending French-speakers in Flanders.
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Umengus
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« Reply #174 on: October 14, 2018, 10:24:36 am »


Party of erdogan asked voters to vote against Demir. Demir is kurd

CDV: 34
NVA 24
VB 12
SPA 11
Groen 6
PVDA 6

44/49
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