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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 48189 times)
Zinneke
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« Reply #225 on: December 14, 2019, 10:00:31 am »

Yes, what this country needs right now more than ever is testimonial parties blocking any chance of governments being formed...I guess that's a one way ticket to breaking our record Laki, but not to improving living poor, handicapped, and workers conditions, other than to bring the PS further to the left thus ruling out any federal majority.

For Marxists, PVDA-PTB voters sure do like the status quo.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #226 on: December 16, 2019, 03:18:55 pm »

So the thing that always interests foreign observers...scission of Belgium...

From Le Soir/ipsos/RTL :

Are you in favour of a referendum on a split of Belgium given there is no government for a year :

Belgium (as a whole) :
40% pro-referendum
50% against referendum
10% uninterested/undecided

Flanders
43% pro-ref
47% against
10% uninterested/undecided

Brussels
33% pro-ref
58% against
9% uninterested/undecided

Wallonia
35% pro-ref
55% against
10%  uninterested/undecided

How they would vote in the referendum :

Belgium
28% for the split
60% against the split
12% non voters

Flanders :
37% for the split of Belgium
50% against the split of Belgium
13% non voters

Brussels
17% for the split
72% against
11% non voters


Wallonia
14% for the split
76% against
10% undecided.


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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #227 on: December 21, 2019, 01:08:28 pm »

Yes, what this country needs right now more than ever is testimonial parties blocking any chance of governments being formed...I guess that's a one way ticket to breaking our record Laki, but not to improving living poor, handicapped, and workers conditions, other than to bring the PS further to the left thus ruling out any federal majority.

For Marxists, PVDA-PTB voters sure do like the status quo.

Honestly the fact that Belgium can't form a government is a problem of Belgian politicians (same here to be honest).

In my opinion, its the fault of the testimonial parties because NVA and PS simply have no room to manoeuvre now that VB and PTB are breathing down their neck respectively. Their voters (the ones who are well off, I'm not talking about Laki or poorer VB voters who I sympathize with) are often voting that way to signal to those two parties to stop compromising. What does that achieve?! It's just plain political arson. I'd like these parties and their antipolitical voters to get their hands dirty, because other than student frat parties I don't think these people can organise anything. but then with VB especially basic human rights are at risk so I'd rather thus they get their hands dirty elsewhere than my country. Like Antarctica or something.


Quote
Hypothetically Belgium could also get some sort of electoral system that is majoritarian in nature, like say a 2 round system like France, FPTP like the UK or even a majority bonus like Greece (probably split on sectarian lines).

No because our entire societal model (loosely similar to the Dutch one) is based on consociational politics. It creates "Belgian compromises " but the whole point is that there is an entire caste of mandate holders, politicians, civil servants, labour aristocrats, big bosses claiming to speak on behalf of the entire bourgeois class, and civil society orgs that all profit from this system. They'll never let it break with majoritarianism.

Quote
Then again IMO the biggest problem in Belgium is the fact that the parties are split on sectarian lines (except PTB/PvdA). Government formation might be easier if the results looked like this instead

Socialist Party: 29
Liberal Party: 26
N-VA: 25
Green Party: 21
VB: 18
Christian Democratic Party: 17
PvdA-PTB: 12
DeFI: 2

Then again I will admit even with this it is hard to form a stable government. A Socialist-Liberal-Green government does have a majority though, so why hasn't it been done? It would also cut a 6 party coalition into only 3 parties.

Reality is that these 3 families actually do cooperate a lot now, but for practical purposes. For example, MR-VLD thought about merging their federal parliamentary group so they could overtake ECOLO-Groen and thus get more presidencies of committees.

The idea of them campaigning together makes no sense as long as the constituencies exist for federal elections. The federal unified electoral district is something touted by a lot of people (including NVA) but it puts into question the idea of francophone minority rights...it gives a lot more power to the Flemish electorate for federal matters. I'm in favour of it because Brussels is electorally speaking unrepresented.

Quote
Sidenote: Why does Belgium not have repeat elections like Spain or Israel in cases of deadlock? Maybe a new election would get things unstuck.

Recently there was talk of emulating Spain and then Vox happened and...yeah...although we don't have the issue of turnout.

It's also because we have fixed term regional parliaments, meaning that federal politics being significantly changed and out of sync with regional elections it might be detrimental (I don't buy it but whatever - I think there is some argument that having a midterm is detrimental though, like in the US).

and there is still an unwritten rule in Belgian politics that "the voter's will must be respected". The problem is we have never been so polarised as this current federal parliament.

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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #228 on: December 30, 2019, 07:02:22 am »

Who is more supportive of independence? The youth or the old?

Youth (although I'm using VB as a proxy)

In Wallonia rattachists are very old.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #229 on: December 31, 2019, 05:41:08 am »

Who is more supportive of independence? The youth or the old?

Youth (although I'm using VB as a proxy)

In Wallonia rattachists are very old.
I mean, let's be honest. In the case of Belgium exploding, Wallonia will certainly not want initially to join France. But that would be still inevitable in the end as this region can't be objectively economically independent and the french constitution allows giving massive autonomy to some region.

You realise there is a microstate on Wallonia's border that is pretty successful right? I think in the current EU set up it's not impossible for Wallonia to be an independent state. They would initially have a 20% budget reduction in case of a split but they'd probably negotiate some insane debt split in their favour with Flanders that compensates that.

Anyway I already explained elsewhere why it would even make more sense for Wallonia to join Germany more than France. But then again I don't know how Walloons would react politically to scission.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #230 on: January 01, 2020, 08:07:07 am »

Who is more supportive of independence? The youth or the old?

Youth (although I'm using VB as a proxy)

In Wallonia rattachists are very old.
I mean, let's be honest. In the case of Belgium exploding, Wallonia will certainly not want initially to join France. But that would be still inevitable in the end as this region can't be objectively economically independent and the french constitution allows giving massive autonomy to some region.

You realise there is a microstate on Wallonia's border that is pretty successful right? I think in the current EU set up it's not impossible for Wallonia to be an independent state. They would initially have a 20% budget reduction in case of a split but they'd probably negotiate some insane debt split in their favour with Flanders that compensates that.

Anyway I already explained elsewhere why it would even make more sense for Wallonia to join Germany more than France. But then again I don't know how Walloons would react politically to scission.
Well I think your comment bolded sums up quite my view that Wallonia couldn't remain alone and would have to join France, Germany or an another country.

And as for Luxembourg, this is way different than Wallonia.

yes but when you consider that half of the Belgian taxpayers money goes towards servicing debt then the debt relief Wallonia would almost certainly negotiate itself out of (being the unwilling party in the partition) would alleviate short term fears. The debt is arguably a bigger obstacle for Flemish nationalism than Brussels.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #231 on: January 10, 2020, 11:17:51 am »
« Edited: January 18, 2020, 07:00:38 am by Zinneke »

Bouchez-Coens as informateurs have released a more centre-right nota and have indicated that they prefer to let the NVA back in than work on their Vivaldi coalition (tripartite + Greens). The FGTB has already called PS and ECOLO to reject another 5 years of NVA.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #232 on: January 18, 2020, 07:00:07 am »
« Edited: January 18, 2020, 07:53:14 am by Zinneke »

Emir Kir, the Mayor of St Josse and federal parliamentarian, has been expelled from the PS for meeting with the Turkish far right in his commune (that is a large Turkish community with, er, strong links to You Know Who). This means the PS favored coalition of Purple+ is even more out of the window, now needing minor party support, but also that we will likely see Kir, who was mayor for several decades there, set up his own personalist pro-Turk party in Brussels, similar to Denk.  
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Zinneke
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« Reply #233 on: January 18, 2020, 11:29:27 am »

Emir Kir, the Mayor of St Josse and federal parliamentarian, has been expelled from the PS for meeting with the Turkish far right in his commune (that is a large Turkish community with, er, strong links to You Know Who). This means the PS favored coalition of Purple+ is even more out of the window, now needing minor party support, but also that we will likely see Kir, who was mayor for several decades there, set up his own personalist pro-Turk party in Brussels, similar to Denk.  
Yes, i just read about it. It's good that this happens. Strong condemnation of meeting with the far-right, and i don't care about a pro-Turk party, and yes it will be succesful, but it's again proof of "failed immigration". Such people have no place in our politics.

Kir is the worst kind of political opportunist. His ignorant fanboys though are just brainwashed. They are sometimes second or third generation immigrants who are considered backwards and foreign to actual Turks but that Erdogan maintained a relationship with (just like Morocco did with the Berbers who they treated like absolute cow dung until they "exported" them here). These guys are Belgians and our responsibility. It's our education and public services that drove them into the hands of Turkish nationalists. Our politicians, left and right, that instrumentalise serious foreign policy issues like the Armenian Genocide and Israel-Palestine to dog whistle certain communities to mobilise for them. And of course the PS is still a mostly white, very Belgian party that allows this kind of bizarre thing to happen in plain sight in their Brussels wing. And of course the Vlaams Belang flyers essentially calling you surplus to requirements in the country you were born in too does not help either.

Tldr This isn't a failure of immigration. It's a failure of education.

Anyway St Josse is gentrifying so quickly I don't expect it to remain Kir's fief for long. The EU youth there though need to get off their arse and vote rather than sticking their head in the sand only to occasionally pop outcomplaining that Brussels in ineffecient , etc
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #234 on: January 28, 2020, 06:08:31 pm »

PS has said they're not interested to form a government with N-VA. Today Bouchez-Coens will resign, and De Wever or De Wever-Magnette will be appointed. There is again discussion about refederalization or confederalization of the country. We have currently no government for 248 days. No-one wants new elections and we need a majority in federal parliament for that. It's a possibility there will be no federal government until 2024 (1800 days without a government)

Bouchez and Coens have been renewed. Bouchez wanted Rousseau (the leader of the 5th largest party in Flanders) to become an informateur but thats out of the question. Its clear De Wever has no choice but to follow whatever VB voters want him to do so delay and delay.

I think we will get new elections. I can't see any other way out of this. Its really time the Flemish nationalists and the people who vote for parties on the federal level with no interest in compromise especially (thinking of VB, PTB/PVDA here) have their cake an eat it.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #235 on: February 15, 2020, 06:34:54 am »
« Edited: February 15, 2020, 06:54:54 am by Zinneke »

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #236 on: February 16, 2020, 07:24:42 am »

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.
In theory could a N-VAer become pm?

Yes, its been touted before and after elections when before 2014 it was unthinkable.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #237 on: February 16, 2020, 05:49:54 pm »

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.

A referendum on what?

"The institutional future of the country"

The issue is that its unclear whether NVA voters vote NVA to be sure to have a right-wing federal government or genuinely out of a wish to one day secede or stop transfers. Most studies on their voters show only 10-15% of NVA voters actually prioritising institutional reform.

The francophones are ready to campaign on that ground. They already spoke as a united front defending Brussels' regional status when NVA came out with their ridiculous plan for having two citizenship models for one city. They want to see if the NVA will escalate enough to potentially alienate risk-averse voters.
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